Hi,
It is not possible to tell whether we are at the start or end of a bull run in gold, or any other type of asset. The possibility of inflation is well known and the efficient market hypothesis ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis ) says this will already be reflected in the price. (i.e lots have people have already bought gold in anticipation, driving the price up, to relect the fears about inflation.)
Sorry if this doesn't help much, but my startegy is to not worry to much about the current price, but just make slow and steady investments over a long period of time so prices average out. If I don't have enough to invest in what I want in any given month, I just save until I do.
Chards is a British site, but has a lot of information that I found really useful about buying gold at low premiums.
Buying 2.5 gram bars will have a larger premium than say a 1 troy once bar.
Since you are in New York, perhaps buying American gold Eagles would be better for you? Check the premium you would pay on them vs. 2.5 g PAMPs.
Good luck in purchases.