fair value

[craig12]

anyone know a fair asking price for the following as a total   1 x ducat  1 x 20 mark german gold coin  2 x 5g johnson matthey bars in blister packs  1 sov  i think i paid £750 as a guide   regards                                           im going with harry dents  thinking ..

[watchesandwhisky]

Id say look at what HGM would sell those for and base your price around that..making them slightly cheaper for a quick sale.

[Roy]

What's Harry thinking?

[craig12]

Just now, Roy said:

What's Harry thinking?

get out of gold in a deflation situation  he states its a good bet against inflation but not in deflation   big crash ahead  ..is he right  who knows   but is track record is much better than  a lot of pumpers out there

[Roy]

I see. Well, I shan't make an offer then. 

Thanks Harry.

[Stu]

Work out your fine content then multiply by spot price, I am sure you will have takers at that. Bear in mind gold in not just an asset but insurance therefore if you need cash sell, if you are looking for some protection and potential upside , hold. My viewpoint only. 

[craig12]

5 minutes ago, Roy said:

I see. Well, I shan't make an offer then. 

Thanks Harry.

his famous latest quote is gold $500 dow $6000

[craig12]

unless harrys a very good conman  he comes over as the most believable in his past predictions 

[Danny-boy]

Blimey, didn't expect to see you back here Craig.

Welcome back!!!

[craig12]

many thanks , never went away , kept watching site  bought a few wierd things  some limited edition art  , a limited edition corgi james bond car set ,  just took a break from silver , 

[Roy]

Good lad. You chose the right time to take a break from silver. Is that the DB5 and Lotus?

[KDave]

I finished reading harry dents book 'the demographic cliff' a couple of weeks ago. It was an interesting read - he suggests consistent deflation vs the deflation first, followed by hyperinflation suggested by many others, or any other inflation/deflation/hyper alternatives. He suggests that the US Dollar will be the ultimate asset in this upcoming mega deflation and that everything including gold will revert much lower.

His predictions are all based on perceived cycles, mostly (but not completely) based on demographics and are quite convincing. He used this system to predict the boom at the end of the last century and predicted the 2007 crash long before anyone else. He mentions this many times in his book. 

The problems I have with his conclusions and methods of making his predictions is this - the reasons behind some of his cycles identified he admitted could not be explained, suggesting to me that they are perhaps coincidental or conveniently fit the picture with the use of hindsight, rather than a credible measure to make a prediction. 

While some of his predictions have come true, the method behind his previously successful predictions has since been changed and extended, new cycles invented with hindsight and the dates of exactly when this demographic disaster happens has changed no less than three times already. Although the conclusion based solely on demographics is rational, most if not all of his conclusions should be treated with some scepticism due to the narrow and ever changing theory on which they are exclusively based. 

In other words - staying diversified is probably less risky and should protect you in the event he is wrong either on the time frame of his collapse (which he has proven to be for previous two books), or if he is wrong about the durability of the dollar in a deflationary collapse. Just my opinion of course. 

[craig12]

10 minutes ago, Roy said:

Good lad. You chose the right time to take a break from silver. Is that the DB5 and Lotus?

no its a corgi 99195 i think  limited to 300 worldwide  casino royale  unpainted  and signed by the japanese engineer ,2 models one is a db5  not sure what the other is  comes with a large casino chip in the lid with no xxx/300  think mines 196  anyway nice thing  

[JB3]

20 hours ago, KDave said:

In other words - staying diversified is probably less risky and should protect you in the event he is wrong either on the time frame of his collapse (which he has proven to be for previous two books), or if he is wrong about the durability of the dollar in a deflationary collapse. Just my opinion of course. 

I agree. And so I subscribe to the 'cockroach' portfolio. Equal split between stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, regularly investing based on relative values and re-balancing at intervals. (The only variations I have to this are a little excess cash for short-term needs - so not an investment - and the equity in my house, which, with gold, actually makes me overweighted on the interest-rate hedge.)

That way, you pound-cost average on the way in and buy / sell with the trend, selling a bubbling asset and buying an undervalued one. Then I don't have to worry about cycles or predictions (except perhaps a little at the point of entry, like the cost of my house).