My ATB Weakness

[ArthGoch]

1 hour ago, Shinus73 said:

The expected ship date for these coins is extremely late (9 December). I don't recall any of the previous releases being delayed by almost a month. This morning I asked Cheimgauer when they would have stock and at what price. They confirmed that US dealers won't have them until 9th December and that there will be none in the EU until Xmas. They couldn't give a price as they haven't been quoted one yet.  

Yes, If you look at the  forecasted issue dates and actuals they are all over the place this year. I was hoping that capacity issues might lead the US Mint to short run some of this years coins; but alas no such luck 

Had payment  and delivery confirmations from Silberling.de  this afternoon that 22nd Dec is the forecasted post out date from them. The owner has in the past been usually good on dates, but as Xmas is looming I won't hold out for this package arriving before the new year.

Also as a side note, If you like Panda's the site is also worth a look as he has these at a good price and also confirmed that these will come in the new snazzy 15 coin tray  

[Pete]

When you quote APMEX prices as a benchmark, remember to add the shipping costs from the USA, plus 20% VAT, plus a handling fee [ prepayment of VAT ] AND that Apmex have a MINIMUM order value for the UK of $1500.

[ArthGoch]

On 11/17/2015, 7:47:26, ArthGoch said:

Have to wait and see what are the sales patterns in the short term and if this comes anywhere close to a sell out within 24 hours. It will be interesting also to see if the split of 45k/20k is going to be maintained between Bullion and Collector Additions 

Some production projections for the Saratoga have been released by the Mint and were published yesterday

http://mintnewsblog.com/2015/11/a-look-at-saratoga-national-historical-park-5-oz-silver-coins/

As the author alludes to, one has to question the USMints rationale in regards to the reduction in the B version .

When this is reviewed against a backdrop of a  general reduction in P numbers throughout 2015, B coins flying off the shelves,  as well as arguably, (IMHO) the weakest design of the 30 coins released to date, the decision seems even more puzzling 

[ArthGoch]

looks like the US Mint reassigned some of the Saratoga total mintage and have once again raised the B to 45k. Subsequently the Collector's edition will be limited to 20k 

Also if the table below is to be believed, (taken directly from the US Mint Bullion Sales web page,) the coins were sold out within a day of going on order (30/11) 

 

[Pete]

Interesting chart from APMEX -

 

 

 

[ArthGoch]

Even taking into account the inflated 'APMEX historic premium pricing ' that they are using to calculate % growth  it is still an impressive indication of the uplift and resale values. 

See that they have also reduced the Hawaii by $25 and having checked recent resales values on Ebay they are coming closer to what the market is dictating, 

The Hawaii along with the other 2012 issues are a good demonstrator on how rarity does not always equate to desirability. Along with the Denali both coins are currently the lowest bullion mintages of the 30 issues so far, and at 20k each. However look at the asking prices via APMEX and the price variation between both issues?

 Likewise the Arcadia coin, also from 2012, had a 25% higher mintage but commands a premium well over the Denali and almost on par with Hawaii 

[Shinus73]

Although I'm very fond of the ATB's and have committed to collecting the series, over the last 12 months I've changed my views on the wisdom of buying multiples for stacking / resale purposes. I just don't see the demand for them from UK stackers and given the up front premiums, it no longer seems a sensible option to me.

[ArthGoch]

Shawnee has been on pre sale with a few dealers for a few weeks now and is due for release on 9th/Feb.

US Mint have reported that 55k bullion have already been sold to the intermediary dealers http://mintnewsblog.com/2016/02/2016-richard-m-nixon-presidential-dollar-products-shawnee-bullion-sales/. 

Looks like the ceiling of 65k for both bullion and Collectors Edition is to be raised. If the article above is correct the total allowable mintage will be raised to 150k; (120k/ B and 30k/P) - thus back to numbers last seen in 2011 and when the Gettysburg B coin could not be shifted for love nor money.

Maybe this time the 'allowable total' will be regulated by dealer demand as opposed to over supply pushed out by the mint  

 

 

 

 

[sovereignsteve]

How do the prices on pre-sale compare with actual release, is it worth ordering?

[ArthGoch]

2 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

How do the prices on pre-sale compare with actual release, is it worth ordering?

with so many bullion versions coming into the market ( 50k+) I I don't think supply is going to be an issue. Thus might be best to sit tight and see if the big dealers cut their margins post 9/Feb. Goes without saying I don't think the Shawnee is going to be the issue to buy a tube of ! 

For the P grades also interesting to see that this is being raised to 30k. Although all but one of the 2015 issue are still for sale via the US Mint, none have sold more than 21k.and the weekly sales for each of the four still available have been a mere trickle since Xmas. - Cannot see the logic in what they are attempting to achieve.

Just hope the US Mint don't adopt the Perth Mint tactics of a few years back where they retrospectively start to remint coins up to the maximum mintage allowed and years after the original coins were minted

 

"P" Sales up to week ending Jan 24th 

 

[Shinus73]

I pre-ordered a Shawnee along with some other stuff from Silberling the other day. It looks like I should have waited given the mintage increase - you'd imagine they will only come down in price. I can see STG getting them in again and selling at bullion prices, as they did a couple of years ago.

[sovereignsteve]

47 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

 I can see STG getting them in again and selling at bullion prices, as they did a couple of years ago.

It will probably depend on how many different coins they can get at bullion prices. IIRC they had about half a dozen types before. I don't think they were particulaly good sellers. After they'd had run out, I asked and sort of persuaded them to get more but the numbers of each coin were small and even then they took a while to sell.

Surprising really, these coins are available from a few German sellers, I'd have thought STG would be able to capture a large slice of that market with their margins.

[mmissinglink]

1 hour ago, ArthGoch said:

with so many bullion versions coming into the market ( 50k+) I I don't think supply is going to be an issue. Thus might be best to sit tight and see if the big dealers cut their margins post 9/Feb. Goes without saying I don't think the Shawnee is going to be the issue to buy a tube of ! 

For the P grades also interesting to see that this is being raised to 30k. Although all but one of the 2015 issue are still for sale via the US Mint, none have sold more than 21k.and the weekly sales for each of the four still available have been a mere trickle since Xmas. - Cannot see the logic in what they are attempting to achieve.

Just hope the US Mint don't adopt the Perth Mint tactics of a few years back where they retrospectively start to remint coins up to the maximum mintage allowed and years after the original coins were minted

 

"P" Sales up to week ending Jan 24th 

 

I doubt the US Mint would re-mint the "P" uncirculated collector version after posting what appears to be declared mintage numbers. If I remember correctly from reading about the details of this, concerning the Perth Mint Lunar series 2, the PM never claimed it would end production on bullion coins by the end of the year in which the coin was dated if the max mintage hadn't been reached yet. So technically, the PM didn't do anything against their word. With both the US Mint and Perth Mint, they generally treat bullion coin minting differently than collector coin minting in terms of any limitations on mintage numbers. 

http://mintnewsblog.com/2015/12/2010-2015-america-the-beautiful-5-oz-silver-coin-mintages/

 

[ArthGoch]

6 minutes ago, mmissinglink said:

I doubt the US Mint would re-mint the "P" uncirculated collector version after posting what appears to be declared mintage numbers. If I remember correctly from reading about the details of this, concerning the Perth Mint Lunar series 2, the PM never claimed it would end production on bullion coins by the end of the year in which the coin was dated if the max mintage hadn't been reached yet. So technically, the PM didn't do anything against their word. With both the US Mint and Perth Mint, they generally treat bullion coin minting differently than collector coin minting in terms of any limitations on mintage numbers. 

http://mintnewsblog.com/2015/12/2010-2015-america-the-beautiful-5-oz-silver-coin-mintages/

 

Hope you are right Mmissinglink. 

Give the US Mint it's due, I don't think there has ever been a case when they have reactivated a coin when it has been completed or more importantly 'alluded' to it being the end of a run. 

The Perth Mint on the other hand, and the now infamous 'Kooks Scandal' caused them no end of grief and due to the way in which they left the door open to remint coins nearly a decade later. If memory serves, the '90 and' 91 Kooks originally ( and in the Perth Mint slabs) had sales of less than 30k when initially released. Fast forward to 1999 they simply flooded the market with new coins (in capsules) and up to the maximum of 300k for these two years. Thus for the lunars et al they have been more explicit in respect of their intention/wish/reserve the right to mint up to the maximum permitted. Yes, in respect of the Kooks technically they had done nothing wrong, but it was at best deceiving in respect of the production hiatus.

May be I am just suspicious, but when the US Mint has failed in the past to sell out of "P" versions more often than not, why increase the capacity by around 50% ? 

Suppose we will have to wait till 2021 to know what was the game plan   

 

[mmissinglink]

ArthGoch,

Perhaps the reason the US Mint is upping the max mintage for 2016 is because they suspect the spot price of silver to move up in 2016. I haven't done a critical widespread analysis, but it seems like the highest mintage years for the ATB's may have been those years that spot silver was highest or projected to be higher. Production costs minus the cost of raw silver remains basically the same over the past 5 years...yes? After all, it took the same resources and energy to press and package 10,000 "P" ATB's in 2010 than in 2015. What has changed is the max mintage and the spot price of silver.

I don't know for sure...just speculating a bit.

[ArthGoch]

US Mint's weekly update states that 75k of these coins have been bought by dealers. Even with this only being released a week ago this makes Shawnee the fourth highest selling coin to date.

With the US Mint only selling to authorized dealers we cannot get a handle on actual retail sales or more specifically what the dealers are going to still be holding come the release of the Cumberland in April. I suppose only at this point, (and when the dealers  put in their pre sale orders in late March), will we be able to have an indication if  an increase to a maximum of 150k for the B is warranted or is once again a repeat of the 2011 folly 

[Agpanda]

Just getting my eyes on ATB

Can anyone tell me how many has been relesed so far?

[sovereignsteve]

32 minutes ago, Bosse68 said:

Just getting my eyes on ATB

Can anyone tell me how many has been relesed so far?

starting in 2010, 5 per year so 31 including the first of 2016

[Agpanda]

seems like it can be expencive

[sovereignsteve]

oh yes

[mmissinglink]

55 minutes ago, Bosse68 said:

Just getting my eyes on ATB

Can anyone tell me how many has been relesed so far?

I'm in the States and I was late to the ATB scene as well. I didn't learn about this series until all but 1 of the 2012 issues were already released for sale by the US Mint. So I had to play catch-up on this series in buying 15 5 oz "P" mintmark coins in a short period of time. Since this 5 oz series is a landmark series for the US Mint in a number of ways, I just knew I had to collect the series so it wasn't a matter of if I should buy the back issues, but how soon can I get it over with because I didn't want to spend a lot of time worrying if I was going to get a better price by waiting a couple of months or so....I didn't want that concern hanging over my head. So I purchased all 15 "P" uncirculated collector version coins (2010-2012) in a short period of time....mostly through eBay...all individual coin purchases.

It wasn't painless but I'm glad I got it over with and I don't regret it for a moment. In hindsight, the only thing I probably would have changed doing is buying yearly sets 5 pieces at a time instead of all individually. Much less complicated that way.

I wasn't interested in the bullion version much but I have since picked up a couple of raw bullion ATB's and a couple of high grade/slabbed bullion ATB's. The raw bullion coins I purchased are predictably in not very good condition and that's why I picked up the couple of high grade slabbed bullion coins that I did....what a difference between the normal crappy condition and the select high grade condition bullion.

 

.

[Shinus73]

I was a late starter too, although I was aware of the series from the beginning. However, being in the UK, I couldn't find anywhere to buy them - there weren't as many options in 2010 as there are now (or if there were, I wasn't aware of them). So, I'm slowly adding the older, more expensive, early releases - still missing 2 of the 2010's and 3 of the 2012's. It's quite a challenge tracking them down at a decent price.

[Shinus73]

Cumberland Gap on pre-sale (very early) at Silberling - 105 Euros. Probably about right given the recent rise in spot price. I'm guessing they won't come back down quite as much with a similar drop.

https://www.silberling.de/Silber/Cumberland-America-the-Beautiful-5-oz.html

[mmissinglink]

11 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

Cumberland Gap on pre-sale (very early) at Silberling - 105 Euros. Probably about right given the recent rise in spot price. I'm guessing they won't come back down quite as much with a similar drop.

https://www.silberling.de/Silber/Cumberland-America-the-Beautiful-5-oz.html

As of last week, the recently released 2016 Shawnee Uncirculated "P" version was taken off sale at the U.S., marked "Currently Unavailable". Sales are brisk for the ATB's now....the series is hot.

My guess is that the Shawnee is close to being sold out already.

 

 

.

[ArthGoch]

On 3/7/2016 at 15:50, mmissinglink said:

As of last week, the recently released 2016 Shawnee Uncirculated "P" version was taken off sale at the U.S., marked "Currently Unavailable". Sales are brisk for the ATB's now....the series is hot.

My guess is that the Shawnee is close to being sold out already.

Latest figures that I can see (25th of Feb) for the "B" are at 105k and now the third largest production run out of the thirty one issued to date. Thus only 15k away from the 120k allocated. That said, as there has been no update to the sales figures for a month they may have called at this number.

"P" Shawnee is back on sale but with Cumberland on sale next month this appears to be lagging at 16.5k. Only this along with Homestead are shown on the mint web page and with the latter being classed as ;currently unavailable.