Physical bullion premium during bull run

[StevenDS]

I haven't been investing in silver bullion for long. Started late 2018. Hence I have not yet followed a bull run in silver from close by.

Physical bullion is only a percentage of the total silver supply. During a bull run I expect shortages in physical bullion products will increase premiums even on low premium silver products, like bars or eg 1 oz silver maples leafs. I however have no idea what sort of premium over spot increase to expect on the physical bullion product.

Everything will of course be determined by supply and demand, but can anyone who did follow a bull run close by, share their experience.

Example of current premium on 1 oz silver maple leaf:

Silver spot €15.19

1 oz silver maple €17.29 (goldsilver.be pricing)

Normal premium over spot on maples +/- 14% over spot

Could the premium increase to 25% or even 30% over spot during the peak of a bull run?

Any feedback from experience is welcome.

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

I've not spent many years paying close attention to the highs and lows but when gold price increased earlier this year I payed very close attention and one thing I noticed as the price creeped up was that the premiums dropped. There was a period where you could pick up some really nice 1/4 ounce gold coins very close to spot that before the rise in price had a significant premium. Watching this really forced me to rethink my own strategy where silver is concerned since it seems likely to me that silver would be affected in the same way.

[StevenDS]

4 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

I've not spent many years paying close attention to the highs and lows but when gold price increased earlier this year I payed very close attention and one thing I noticed as the price creeped up was that the premiums dropped. There was a period where you could pick up some really nice 1/4 ounce gold coins very close to spot that before the rise in price had a significant premium. Watching this really forced me to rethink my own strategy where silver is concerned since it seems likely to me that silver would be affected in the same way.

But there wasn't really a shortage of gold bullion this year. Can we draw conclusions about what you noticed.

[StevenDS]

Just saw this on Twitter. He's from SD Bullion. Conveniently addressing the same topic.

He is mentioning up to 50% over spot premiums.

 

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

45 minutes ago, StevenDS said:

But there wasn't really a shortage of gold bullion this year. Can we draw conclusions about what you noticed.

I think we are talking about two different things here. A bull run and scarcity. Some silver products were quite scarce earlier this year including 2019 maples, 10 oz Royal Canadian Mint bars, etc. Premiums on these did rise a bit at the time but not overly and stock is once more readily available. Scarcity will affect price (premium)... basic supply vs demand at play there. A bull run at least initially as I witnessed in the gold price rise earlier this year led to a shrinking of the premium as the metal value increased. I say initially there as I think the markets have caught up and premiums now look to me at least to be back where they were. I don't know how normal that is...  it was my first time paying close attention to rising market prices.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, StevenDS said:

Just saw this on Twitter. He's from SD Bullion. Conveniently addressing the same topic.

He is mentioning up to 50% over spot premiums.

 

 

you can look it up.

height of 2011 bull run, silver reaches ~$50

(rumoured street trade is in the mid-high $40's)

top uk prices paid for bullion ~£38 on ~£30 spot.

 

if the above is true then premium over spot would

be <30% including uk taxes.

 

HH

 

[Paul]

during the 2011 peak in the UK plenty of stuff was still selling on eBay every day, no shortage of buyers even at an all time high myself included

Seeing UK 1oz Britannias being bid up £40-£45 on eBay.co.uk was not uncommon