C-12's Supply, Demand and Price Action thread

[C12]

Thought I'd start up a thread to share some technical analysis on gold, silver, cryptos and anything else anyone is interested in. It might be useful for those looking to time their purchases but not necessarily as investment advice.  

I've been trading for around 6 years and was a full-time trader back in 2013 (as a intraday low timeframe scalper). I now trade the forex majors in my spare time on higher time frames.  

I look at the markets in a very similar way to Richard Rock. I don't use indicators or oscillators like RSI or stochastics since these lag behind price. 

I've been running an active thread for the last 5 years on a forex trading forum over at - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=390673

Anyway, let's start with Gold. Since it's new year I'll start with higher time-frame analysis.

The monthly looks particularly bullish. We've broken up out of a 6.5 year downtrend, have successfully retested the 50% retracement of the bull move from 1999 to 2011 and the chart is suggesting a move higher. I do see a potential on the monthly for another retest of the breakout line. There is a fresh demand zone below which should mean price is well supported, even if it drops back below the breakout line. 

Looking at the weekly, the bullish picture is even clearer. You can see all the supply levels above have been tested and the levels (targets) are marked off above. This chart suggests we may be off to the races in terms of a significant up-move. 

[C12]

Silver

Well this is a seriously unloved instrument by the looks of this chart. You can see there was a significant bubble in price back in early 2011. Recoveries from these kind of blow off tops can take a long time to play out . 

However, there are positive signs here that we've now made 2 successfully tests off the uptrend line from that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows. It's possible that the low is in and we can now move higher. 

As a silver bull I see outstanding long term value at buying physical at this price and just purchased 100 x Silver Britannia's. If we drop lower then I will surely be back to purchase more. As a physical buyer you don't worry about being stopped out. 

We do know that silver does follow gold though so will see how price action unfolds so may see some fresh demand form early in the new year.

The daily shows we've just bounced off a demand zone and has traded nicely on lower timeframes. As with gold, all supply zones consumed so could run up fast if buyers enter the market.

[C12]

EURUSD

My bread and butter pair to trade. I've been buying EU on and off since 1.09 all the way up. I'm expecting significant resistance at around 1.26 (assuming we take out the current supply) which is the trend line of the multiyear downtrend and a solid supply zone. 

[C12]

GBPUSD

This has been grinding higher over the last year. Forming fresh demands and retesting them on the weekly. I see resistance at 1.39 and supply around around 1.42.

[C12]

Bitcoin

My broker doesn't provide as much history so will look at trading view. The weekly chart shows a seriously stretched market with a whopping bearish engulfing candle. This for me is a clear sign to avoid buying at these price levels. 

You can see the technical uptrend lines. The weekly untested support line is around $5,000 which would certainly stir my interest as a value investor to consider filling my empty crypto wallet. 

The daily shows the uptrend lines more clearly and there is also a demand level at around $8400. Just looking at this chart I can see this ranging and bottoming out for a while (possibly the whole of 2018 and even 2019). 

I may be wrong and we're "off to the moon" from here but I can only say what I see on this chart. Reminds me a bit like silver in April/May 2011. I would imagine there is much better value and less downside risk with alternative cryptos right now. 

Currently short on one of my demo spread bet accounts with half a position off on the initial drop. 

[C12]

Ripple 

We're starting to see a washout in cryptos. Ripple has a particularly clean buy level at approx $0.42 which I'm planning to load up on if we reach this area. 

This is a centralised bank coin so maybe not the pick of the bunch in the very long term. However, I see this area as a very low risk, high reward entry if get down there. I would expect some longer term basing before taking out the spike highs. 

These markets are extremely volatile and it's far better to accumulate at value rather than chase price if you're an investor. This coin has a $48 Billion dollar market cap so you can be sure there's some serious pain out there. 

I've got a whole list of buy zones on a pile of cryptos but this chart stands out. 

 

[C12]

Another day, another crypto crash. Now closing in on nearest supports (not necessarily bottoms) around these levels:

Bitcoin - $8,400 

Litecoin - $110

Ripple - $0.5 

The Altcoin market is an absolute horror show... 70% to 80% plus down off all time highs for some. Ethereum holding up very well. 

[C12]

On 01/01/2018 at 21:23, C12 said:

The daily shows the uptrend lines more clearly and there is also a demand level at around $8400.

 

We've hit the demand zone, right on the uptrend line at $8400

Closed out the short from $19,400 and looking for a bounce here. SL at $7500 - TP around $12,500.

[Martlet]

9 hours ago, C12 said:

The Altcoin market is an absolute horror show... 70% to 80% plus down off all time highs for some. Ethereum holding up very well. 

The sequence of falls this past two weeks has certainly sorted the wheat from the chaff.   There's a notable, small, number of tokens that have continued rising or held a line against BTC.   

 

[C12]

8 hours ago, Martlet said:

The sequence of falls this past two weeks has certainly sorted the wheat from the chaff.   There's a notable, small, number of tokens that have continued rising or held a line against BTC.   

 

I put a chart up showing Bitcoin would crash on January 1st. In the same post I wrote that Alt coins would be a better option.... That was a dreadful call. 

We're now getting close to areas i'm interested in picking stuff up but going to be very very selective. 

I did buy a small bit of Bitcoin and Litecoin to test with (transferring to a wallet, then Binance and bought in and out of a few Alts).

To be honest, I'm not sure this current crop of "Blockchain" coins will survive. Payments are far too slow (10 mins to 45 mins) and the transactions fees constantly eat away at your holdings. It seems blockchain networks are designed to become more and more clunky as they grow.

[C12]

Another interesting day in crypto markets.

I'm not convinced this bear market is over. Bitcoin spiked through the demand zone of $8,400 and uptrend support.

I think we may still see $5,000 at some point, Litecoin at $65 and Ripple at $0.42. Ethereum is a tougher chart to read but possibly a test of $400.

The cleanest level of untested Bitcoin support is $1460. 

[C12]

DOW 

This could be a significant blow off top looking at the unfolding monthly candle.. Potentially the most significant bar we've seen in 30 years, looks even more extreme than when silver hit $50 in 2011. 

[C12]

On 01/02/2018 at 21:52, C12 said:

We've hit the demand zone, right on the uptrend line at $8400

Closed out the short from $19,400 and looking for a bounce here. SL at $7500 - TP around $12,500.

That wasn't a bad shout but got stopped out on the trade. Identical arrows still on chart. 

Now rolling over at the daily supply level. I get the feeling this bear trend isn't over yet. 

[KDave]

I am watching with interest, I find it fascinating that crypto appeared to follow the stock market falls to a degree, but it may be just coincidence? I have noticed something interesting on an anecdotal level though - it has gotten to the point now that I don't really need to check the price to know how well bitcoin is doing. If its going up, at work I don't hear the end of it and when its falling I hear less. When it was crashing I didn't hear about it at all, silence all round, and knowing that it was crashing I was too polite to bring it up. It has been pretty noisy on the subject this week though! people are telling me to get on board before I miss out (again) 

If its quiet next week I will know you were right  

[C12]

48 minutes ago, KDave said:

I am watching with interest, I find it fascinating that crypto appeared to follow the stock market falls to a degree, but it may be just coincidence? I have noticed something interesting on an anecdotal level though - it has gotten to the point now that I don't really need to check the price to know how well bitcoin is doing. If its going up, at work I don't hear the end of it and when its falling I hear less. When it was crashing I didn't hear about it at all, silence all round, and knowing that it was crashing I was too polite to bring it up. It has been pretty noisy on the subject this week though! people are telling me to get on board before I miss out (again) 

If its quiet next week I will know you were right  

Yeah I think cryptos are the most vunerable assets of them all and people are getting their asses handed right now, specifically in the Altcoin space.  Who knows how badly they'll get hit when the stock market bubble collapses. 

Technically all the top market cap coins appear to be offering another 50% haircut from current levels. Ethereum at $400 (now $828), Ripple at $0.45 (currently $0.95)and Bitcoin back at $5k is still on my radar. 

I can see some of these coins retracing their entire bull moves from 2017.

[HawkHybrid]

if bitcoin makes a peak dec 2017 and the dow makes

a peak jan 2018 does that mean that bitcoin can be a

leading indicator for a dow bear market?

 

why didn't you draw the lower trend line from the green

dot through to the big green/blue/white dot? 

 

HH

[C12]

On 22/02/2018 at 15:43, HawkHybrid said:

if bitcoin makes a peak dec 2017 and the dow makes

a peak jan 2018 does that mean that bitcoin can be a

leading indicator for a dow bear market?

 

why didn't you draw the lower trend line from the green

dot through to the big green/blue/white dot? 

 

HH

Here's the latest Bitcoin chart. $5,000 is still in play imo. Weekly isn't yet in oversold territory.

Ripple still needs to revisit $0.45. Ethereum $400 and Litecoin around $95 or slightly lower. 

I'm planning on allocating a few grands worth of speculation cash to buy some of the top market cap cryptos at those price levels.

[C12]

Next leg down in crypto seems to be in play and could be a sharp one. You can call this the 'Burj Khalifa' pattern. 

This could be the final capitulation so will be interesting to see how things play out. 

[C12]

On 21/02/2018 at 22:30, C12 said:

Technically all the top market cap coins appear to be offering another 50% haircut from current levels. Ethereum at $400 (now $828), Ripple at $0.45 (currently $0.95)and Bitcoin back at $5k is still on my radar. 

Ethereum and Ripple now entering the buy zones. However, both are not oversold on the weekly charts so may just be a bounce coming up before more declines. 

A break below here, ETH has zero support until $60. 

No longer interested in accumulating any XRP. I think it's a ponzi coin. I like NANO. 

[QStack]

XRP isn't even a ponzi. Unlike other coins who's value is derived from "x" number of coins ever able to be mined - XRP is unlimited