U.K. Isaac Newton Gold Proof - good buy or no?

[buckeyecoins]

44 minutes ago, Ryland said:

Sure it has zero momentum now but does it ever happen that in the future things are valued that were once pushed away?

Welcome to the forum!  I am new here myself.  That same thought always crosses my mind.         

[kimchi]

2 hours ago, buckeyecoins said:

@kimchi ^^^THIS^^^

Then I think the BUNC for £10 is your only safe bet.

2 hours ago, Ryland said:

Hey guys I’m new to the forum and somewhat new to numismatics but to me it’s a beautiful coin with a low mintage.  Sure it has zero momentum now but does it ever happen that in the future things are valued that were once pushed away?  Btw I’m in the US so the coin to me has kind of a foreign uniqueness to it.  I’d say if the original poster is a scientist and loves the design then go for it, I did a quick check and I didn’t see it cheaper anywhere than at the mint.

Yes but not unsuccessful RM commemoratives at huge premiums (of which there are many) like this imo. I've already given the Canute as an example for direct comparison, and that one sold out at the Mint in decent time.

 

 

[kimchi]

.

[Guest]

Welcome to the forum!  I am new here myself.  That same thought always crosses my mind.         

It is sobering to attend one of the auctions like Lockdales and see these things hammer for half what they were sold at.

Sovereigns and Britannias are a better bet and even then be careful.

[fehk2001]

5 hours ago, kimchi said:

Then I think the BUNC for £10 is your only safe bet.

Yes but not unsuccessful RM commemoratives at huge premiums (of which there are many) like this imo. I've already given the Canute as an example for direct comparison, and that one sold out at the Mint in decent time.

 

 

No bunc for 50 p with a huge mintage , the ten year stats is poor gain despite  it's a gain 

a few bunc will gain well , kew garden and Beatrix coin set especially with the box + set 2016 , box isn't easy to get 

[buckeyecoins]

On 11/21/2017 at 03:31, Numistacker said:

Sovereigns and Britannias are a better bet and even then be careful.

 

@Numistacker  I'm from the U.S. and people say the same thing about the silver/gold Eagles.  Personally I have never found them very appealing.  They are minted in such huge numbers that the vast majority will never be worth more than a small premium over melt.  If you just want bullion they're fine, but if you're after premium appreciation forget it.

[Guest]

[mention=378]Numistacker[/mention]  I'm from the U.S. and people say the same thing about the silver/gold Eagles.  Personally I have never found them very appealing.  They are minted in such huge numbers that the vast majority will never be worth more than a small premium over melt.  If you just want bullion they're fine, but if you're after premium appreciation forget it.

I don’t buy ASE or Bullion Britannia’s for that very reason. I always try to buy things that I find personally interesting. Sometimes those things go up in price and sometimes they do not.

I always feel that if I really like something then it is more than likely that others will also find that thing interesting.

However, when it comes to regular American or British gold commemorative’s, there is an almost 0 track record of premium growth.

[kimchi]

4 hours ago, Numistacker said:

However, when it comes to regular American or British gold commemorative’s, there is an almost 0 track record of premium growth.

 

The bottom line here!

@buckeyecoins you will see many coins which have potential and have people excited simply by hanging around here Don't always buy into the hype (e.g. see the Silver Proof Krugerrand, though people did make on that in the very short term) but there are some very likely winners (some of the special anniversary release Sovereigns for this year, e.g. the Piedfort and Strike on the Day - take a look at e.g. ebay prices compared to release prices, also you can search for those threads from the time on here, they may be a very interesting read!).

[Ryland]

But if the mintage is only 500, let’s suppose 250 will be sold to people who never intend to sell and 250 will sell to dealers and short term flippers.  Wouldn’t you think that if it’s an interesting enough design or commemorating something important people will in the future want to acquire the coin, of which only 250 would theoretically be available.  What I’m trying to say is with any coin don’t you think that it only takes the interest of enough people to equal half the mintage to raise the price of a coin?

[Ryland]

And I suppose that number can be tabulated over the years, so not half the mintage at one time but just thinking off the top of my head, a diminishing number of half if you suppose half of all the coins resold will be bought at the same ratio of people who keep vs people and dealers who flip.

[Ryland]

Do any of you know if anyone has tried a strategy of a acquiring half or more of a limited issue coin such as this one to essentially make their own market?  One could theoretically take an unloved but interesting and limited issue like this and quietly acquire a large percentage of all the existing coins.  I wonder if the scarcity of the coin would make it more desirable?

[buckeyecoins]

28 minutes ago, Ryland said:

Do any of you know if anyone has tried a strategy of a acquiring half or more of a limited issue coin such as this one to essentially make their own market?  One could theoretically take an unloved but interesting and limited issue like this and quietly acquire a large percentage of all the existing coins.  I wonder if the scarcity of the coin would make it more desirable?

Interesting theory.  On some issues the mint places a "household" limit on the number you can order for that very reason.  They don't want a small number of dealers hoarding all the coins and artificially driving up the price.  I'm sure that has happened in the past.  Not sure if the Royal Mint has such a limit but I know the U.S. Mint does impose a limit on some releases.

[buckeyecoins]

Interestingly the website says "Awaiting Stock...Shipping within 7-10 working days."   That makes me think they ran out of their initial stock and are now taking pre-orders for more.  If you look under "Specifications" it says Maximum Coin Mintage 634.  I really wonder if they've already sold 500 of them and the mint went ahead and produced 134 more to meet the demand?  I may take a second look at this...  

[kimchi]

18 minutes ago, Ryland said:

Do any of you know if anyone has tried a strategy of a acquiring half or more of a limited issue coin such as this one to essentially make their own market?

There is no market for these commemorative coins (however nice they may be) full stop. You can't create a market on one issue that has never existed for any other issues, even if you buy 100% of the coins (which you can't anyway, but that's besides the point).

@fehk2001 I can appreciate why you simply said 'NO' now, very wise 

[kimchi]

3 minutes ago, buckeyecoins said:

Interestingly the website says "Awaiting Stock...Shipping within 7-10 working days."   That makes me think they ran out of their initial stock and are now taking pre-orders for more.  If you look under "Specifications" it says Maximum Coin Mintage 634.  I really wonder if they've already sold 500 of them and the mint went ahead and produced 134 more to meet the demand?  I may take a second look at this...  

It makes me think the Royal Mint may have sold a few more than the few dozen (the highest CoA I've found online is in the 30s) they expected, so have thought 'let's mint some more for the suckers willing to pay such a ridiculous fee for a coin that will only ever be worth spot'.

Jesus wept.

[buckeyecoins]

4 minutes ago, kimchi said:

It makes me think the Royal Mint may have sold a few more than the few dozen (the highest CoA I've found online is in the 30s) they expected, so have thought 'let's mint some more for the suckers willing to pay such a ridiculous fee for a coin that will only ever be worth spot'.

Jesus wept.

Well we know they produced at least 500 right?  If the mint doesn't have them where did they go?  Dealers sitting on them? 

[kimchi]

Just now, buckeyecoins said:

Well we know they produced at least 500 right?  If the mint doesn't have them where did they go?  Dealers sitting on them? 

It's a 'maximum mintage'. There's no evidence they've produced more than a few dozen.

If dealers are 'sitting' on them it's because no-one will touch them with a bargepole, not because they think there is anything to gain by doing so (there is nothing to gain - these coins are on a very steep downward spiral drop to spot price - why not pick one up then?).

If you want to make up imaginary interest just because you like the coin, against all advice from relative experts on here such as @Numistacker, then there is nothing more I can say.

[fehk2001]

30 minutes ago, kimchi said:

There is no market for these commemorative coins (however nice they may be) full stop. You can't create a market on one issue that has never existed for any other issues, even if you buy 100% of the coins (which you can't anyway, but that's besides the point).

@fehk2001 I can appreciate why you simply said 'NO' now, very wise 

See ! That's how u owe me a drink 

[kimchi]

12 minutes ago, fehk2001 said:

See ! That's how u owe me a drink 

NO

(Am I getting the hang of this now? )

[buckeyecoins]

22 minutes ago, kimchi said:

It's a 'maximum mintage'. There's no evidence they've produced more than a few dozen.

If dealers are 'sitting' on them it's because no-one will touch them with a bargepole, not because they think there is anything to gain by doing so (there is nothing to gain - these coins are on a very steep downward spiral drop to spot price - why not pick one up then?).

If you want to make up imaginary interest just because you like the coin, against all advice from relative experts on here such as @Numistacker, then there is nothing more I can say.

#108: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-UK-50p-Gold-Proof-Coins-1-of-only-500/192338762146

#172: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-UK-50p-Gold-Proof-Coin-COA-Number-172-of-500/132397540555

#189: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-50p-Gold-Proof-Coin-ltd-500/312007239062

Look I'm not saying you're wrong about the future prospects of the coin, just trying to be thorough in my research.  I'm not sure why anyone would list this coin on eBay for £120 more than you can still buy it from the mint.  

 

[kimchi]

1 minute ago, buckeyecoins said:

#108: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-UK-50p-Gold-Proof-Coins-1-of-only-500/192338762146

#172: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-UK-50p-Gold-Proof-Coin-COA-Number-172-of-500/132397540555

#189: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sir-Isaac-Newton-2017-50p-Gold-Proof-Coin-ltd-500/312007239062

Look I'm not saying you're wrong about the future prospects of the coin, just trying to be thorough in my research.  I'm not sure why anyone would list this coin on eBay for £120 more than you can still buy it from the mint.  

 

It's good to be thorough, they now seem to have CoAs into the 180s so are doing slightly better

I still say this will never, ever be worth more than spot in the medium to long term.

As for why people list them on ebay at decent profits when you can still buy them elsewhere cheaper - imo chancers looking to snag a fool (and they do find them, alas). What other possible reason is there?

Far wiser and more experienced folk than I have already told you the black and white situation with this coin. If you care about your money then listen to them. If you don't and are rich and have money you can just burn then get this coin. Last word from me, but good luck!

 

[Ryland]

The whole idea of this topic is strange.  It seems like people even if they like a coin wont buy it because it seems like other people won’t buy it so it may lose value.  This is why I buy bullion for a store of value and numismatics for pleasure.  It seems a bit of tail wagging the dog, if everyone would just buy what they like instead of what they perceive others to like we may have a different market.  Also how does a coin lose value?  People selling for less then they paid, if someone truly enjoyed a coin and bought it for their own pleasure and collection why would they ever sell for less then they paid unless they’re down to their last dime??

[Ryland]

Just like anything that you buy, you don’t really loose money until you sell for a loss.  I guess people just feel better being told that the things they buy are worth more than they paid.  I suppose that’s why department stores are always 80% off....even though no one has ever paid the full price 

[AlphaBeast]

Totally agree, not everything is about money - if you like it, go for it!!! It obviously has a deeper meaning to you than it does to the rest of us.

If I saw a coin, that has a deeper meaning to me personaly, was something that probably won't make a profit (never know though!), I'd still be tempted to buy it for myself.

Think of it as an early Christmas / Birthday present! 

[kimchi]

12 minutes ago, Ryland said:

The whole idea of this topic is strange.  It seems like people even if they like a coin wont buy it because it seems like other people won’t buy it so it may lose value. 

It's not a case of 'may lose value' - it's guaranteed. I don't know how many experienced people you need to tell you this? The value loss is already there staring you full in the face when you first buy it - the history of such coins is jus about 100% proven. Yes you can buy happy to soak up that loss for the 'pleasure' you will get from it, if you like. Or you can wait six months and buy it for spot (almost half price on this one).

I have a lovely house I am thinking of selling right now. A selling point is the amazing views and the seclusion. If you'd like to waste money how about you pay me double what it's valued at, and if and when you need to sell, OK you have lost 50%,, but at least you've had some lovely views from the windows and no noise from the neighbours for your extra half a million?!!

No wonder coins like these sell for more than the current direct purchase price on ebay with such 'thinking' about!