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Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2024

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This is the time of year when Saxo publish their predictions for the coming year. Previous years' predictions have proved to be almost entirely wrong. Last year's were entirely wrong. But for what it's worth, here are their predictions for 2024.

1. The oil price rises to $150 per barrel and the Saudi government buys the UEFA Champions League and creates a World Champions League.

2. A health crisis arises when people taking anti-obesity drugs stop dieting and exercising because they trust the drugs to work.

3. The US government, desperate to create demand for Treasuries, makes income from government bonds tax-free.

4. Generative AI enables creation of a deepfake that is sufficiently serious that it triggers government crackdowns on the use of AI.

5. Countries with large trade deficits unite to negotiate more favourable terms for trade, resulting in painful adjustments for trade surplus countries.

6. Robert Kennedy Jr wins the US presidential election.

7. Japan introduces policies that boost domestic demand and cause 7% GDP growth. This forces the Bank of Japan to abandon yield curve control.

8. The EU implements a wealth tax of 2%, resulting in a fall in luxury goods stocks.


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