I agree there are coherent narratives for shot-term dips and long-term bull runs along with everything in between
Several things are different this time:
1) Inflation particularly in energy, shipping, wages, ESG and finance. Energy and compounding finance costs related to ESG have raised the floor for precious metals. They will never go as low as they once did. Inflation in the wider economy/world makes all goods and services more expensive. It doesn't make sense that silver went down 40% from peak to trough while inflation raged, does it? That will work itself out and we will see sustained price increases IMHO at least until $30
2) War in Europe and rumours of war, especially in Taiwan. WWIII-scenarios haven't been a serious risk for 30 + years
3) The central banks. The banks will pivot in the near future and then things will get wild for precious metals as opportunity costs evaporate. That is the real lift-off point that I've been waiting for. It's only after the CBs pivot that we will see the true potential of silver. This is scary for all of us but the IMF is claiming we're going back to "pre-covid" (i.e. 0%) interest rates:
Central banks' interest rates to fall to pre-COVID levels, says IMF | Kitco News
4) There are many more industrial and medical uses for PMs than at any time in history. If we were all to transition to EVs and solar panels (as per regulations in several important jurisdictions such as California, EU, UK), that would be immensely bullish for silver. Then you have gold as a viable solution to multidrug-resistant superbugs. If that went mainstream it would be enormous for gold and PMs
Gold-based drugs proving effective in treating deadly 'superbugs' | Kitco News
5) The changing of the guard for "safe haven" assets. There used to be one Tier-1 asset - the USD and her sister products of US Treasuries. Gold could be either Tier-1 or Tier-3. Now gold (Basel III) is a Tier-1 asset alongside USD. Other traditional safe havens like bonds, GBP, JPY, physical real estate and defensive stocks (e.g. medical/consumer healthcare, supermarkets/consumer staples, utilities and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts)), are more or less in vogue than they used to be, mostly less. Some "respectable" people are even talking about bitcoin and cryptos as a "safe haven" asset. That's so insane to me I can't describe it
6) We tend to be myopic about "the golden billion" of North America, Western Europe and Japan/South Korea/Singapore/Hong Kong/Australia. There have been huge advancements in 3rd-world and developing economies. That guy from YouTube, Mike Maloney, has good stats on this like the retail money (consumer credit) available for investment in PMs now is 220 times greater than in the last great bull run of the 1970s/80s, along with stock market cap being 49 times larger, assets under management about 40 times greater ....