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HonestMoneyGoldSilver

Platinum Premium Member
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Everything posted by HonestMoneyGoldSilver

  1. There's decent support around $2300/£1834 so that will probably be as far as the dip goes The standard thing "they" seem to like to do is dump gold during the week to buy riskier assets, then buy it all back again on Thursday-Friday in case anything kicks off over the weekend while markets are closed
  2. Yes that sounds about right. There are plenty of USA members on TSF but the buy/sell never took off You guys need a leader to get the sales section started with high volume like a YouTuber or major bullion dealer. The YouTuber @SilverDragons is a member here but not very active, he would be perfect along with his mates Yankee and Sal You can order from UK sellers if the seller is happy to ship to the USA. There are a number of recognised bullion dealers and YouTubers in the UK who sell on this platform so they've got experience. There's also a crew who ship coins from the UK to PGCS and NGC for grading. From my research sending precious metals worth roughly $2.5K will cost about $65 in shipping to be fully insured (UPS)
  3. Quick it's went up £2 to £1866, does anybody want to join me mining for some gold in Peru? (timestamped)
  4. It's nothing personal @Ashpope1603 Consider if the shoe was on the other foot. Would you buy precious metals from somebody you didn't know, who has zero sales history, and give them money via bank transfer or PayPal Family & Friends (which doesn't cover you for trades gone sideways)? Don't take it the wrong way. @James32 is pretty much the forum daddy so if he vouches for someone they are legit As long as you are dealing with an established member like @oddball or getting vouches from the forum daddy, you are 100% safe. Your buyers don't have the same guarantees, so, please don't get offended if people ask you to ship first. Do make sure you only deal with established members though if you are shipping first and getting payment on receipt
  5. It dropped £15 and is now worthless so they sold all theirs! It's weird that gold is more volatile than s***** today
  6. It is interesting if a little out of date and light on details: https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/42802-1-million-bitcoin/?do=findComment&comment=1059541 Looks like gold and commodities will remain as interstate settlement methods between BRICS. The new currency will be based on the local fiat currencies transferred onto the blockchain like the ERC-20 (Ethereum) token. It's basically BRICS digital currency running on western blockchains and is due to have a prelim release in October 2024 (BRICS summit, 16/10) BRICS Nations Ponder Digital Currency to Ease Trade, Reduce USD Reliance - CoinDesk BRICS Will Create Payment System Based on Digital Currencies and Blockchain: Report (coindesk.com) BRICS Announces New Blockchain-Based Crypto Payment System (watcher.guru)
  7. Sure, but what about the video you posted? Does it say to buy or sell?
  8. Well that was uneventful. Gold lost £10 and s***** lost 10p, wait, 9p
  9. Give us the TL:DR, do we keep buying or not? Never mind I see @Petra has that bit covered!
  10. Maths is more honest and concise than words. My English skills leave a lot to be desired - if brevity is a virtue then I'm morally bankrupt 😂 I'm the opposite and would look at the graphs first, if they were useful then I would read the words
  11. This is so impressive I'd like to congratulate you in person by shaking your hand. What did you say your address was again?
  12. Banking crisis? If you're a small or mid-sized bank with exposure to commercial real estate then you're bread getting closer to the grill. The small banks are technically insolvent without the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). If uncle Feddy and auntie Treasury decide not to give any Christmas presents this year then things could get really interesting The largest outflows from US banks since 9/11 - the money has been dropped in gold, stocks and crypto: Rates at 5.25-5.5% has the same effect as uncle Feddy giving his nephew a haircut at the kitchen table. Results will vary depending on hairstyle. If the nephew was smart enough to shave their head (hedge effectively) then uncle Feddy can't mess up their look. If the nephew has long, flowing multi-coloured locks and practices identity politics, like SVB, then uncle Feddy is going to make sure they have a bad year This doesn't just apply to the US or to commercial banks. It applies equally to the UK/EU and to the Bank of England. They have a similar warehouse of bonds whose open market value declines the higher rates become. It's fine for the BoE as George Osborne agreed at the time (this mess started in 2008/9) that the taxpayer would pick up the bill if the BoE made losses when selling bonds. So the BoE has been selling bonds and we have been picking up the tab. The BoE and the US banks could and should hold their bonds to maturity to minimise their losses. A commercial bank may come under pressure from shareholders or lenders but the BoE has no such concerns: Taxpayers brace for £100bn money-printing bill – as George Osborne says it’s ‘not my responsibility’ (msn.com) We've been in a banking crisis since the central banks hiked rates and the central planners have been doing their best to paper over the cracks. It's not all bad when rates are high, some other important market participants will benefit including larger banks who aren't exposed to commercial real estate, but also pensioners on defined contributions: Interest rates and pensions: good news and bad (ft.com) Jamie Dimon claims we need to hike rates potentially as high as 8% to properly tame inflation. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68769561 So, the Fed and BoE are between a rock and a hard place. If they don't cut then the banking system is at risk, a number of smaller banks will fail and any mid or large bank exposed to commercial debt or who didn't effectively hedge, is also at risk of going under. If a few small and a couple of larger banks go under that might cause a cascading domino effect like in 2008 but this is very unlikely. More likely JPM and friends will get a blank cheque, regulatory waivers and buy everything at fire sale prices to further entrench their monopolies. Higher rates also make government borrowing eye wateringly expensive relative to the recent past. On the other hand if the Fed and BoE cut prematurely then inflation is going to roar back and eat everything alive, which ultimately will cause a severe bout of stagflation and hollow out the economy. ECB’s Kazimir: Premature Rate Cut Worse Than Holding Too Long - Bloomberg Cutting interest rates too soon would be much worse than leaving them where they are for too long, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir Bank of England policymaker warns against cutting rates too soon (ft.com) “After several years of above-target inflation rates and given the threat of persistent inflation dynamics becoming embedded in expectations, in my view there are greater risks associated with easing too early should inflation persist rather than easing too late should inflation abate,” Pill said. ---------------------------------------- Choose your poison. My choice is gold and silver. Oh and that's not to mention the trillion dollar Japanese carry trades (borrowing Yen at 0.1% interest to purchase USD and Treasuries at much higher rates, then purposefully destroying the Yen to make the subsequent Yen repayments lesser, profiting from the difference) Which is a similar strategy to the "melt up" being orchestrated by our central authorities. Stocks are going to have one more blow-off top then crash, folks are piling in setting new ATHs while the smart money (the CEOs and insiders along with the richest men in the world) are selling up and running for the hills The last time stocks were this concentrated was in the early 1930s .... hmm, what happened next? It's not that we're stupid either it's that we are corrupt. If you wonder why such things are allowed to transpire when we're aware of the potential consequences, well, it's a feature, not a bug. The bugs are what you will soon be eating. Stack gold, silver and be self-sufficient (farmland, clean water source, independent energy, guns, medical supplies, toilet roll, etc):
  13. Make the core of your stack CGT-exempt like sovs and brits. If you find smaller pieces at a similar premium to larger pieces, happy days, buy them all. I like 1oz pieces but the higher spot goes the stronger the case for owning fractional (sovs, half sovs, 1/4oz, 1/10oz) For the rest of your stack buy things that tickle your barnacles. If I could turn back time (if I could find a way) I would buy circulated sovs/coins that I could hold with my bare hands
  14. If you're getting a delivery then buying gold would be cheaper
  15. The CME is edging closer to no rate cuts in 2024. Most people were convinced the Fed would cut at least twice before the US elections and the BoE would follow suit. The odds of the soonest rate cuts currently favour September (59%, basically a coin flip). It's November that has a better than coin flip chance (68% of easing) or December (81%) CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group Don't be surprised if there are no cuts in 2024 and it's the summer of 2025 when we see the first cut. Inflation is still crazy IMHO especially on food, gas is still extortionate in the UK while petrol isn't exactly cheap either All that = bullish for gold. The narrative is that high rates are bad for gold and the price will explode when the cuts happen (or shortly before the cuts). Gold commanding this price in spite of market rate cut expectations is therefore bullish. Is the commodity super cycle real? Is that why gold and silver are defying monetary gravity?
  16. The price staying in the current range for a few weeks is more bullish long-term for gold than if the price were to skyrocket. Let me think of another analogy: The price staying in this range is like pre-going out drinks. The price skyrocketing is like paying for all your drinks at the bar Who can afford to drink more over the long term? The folks drinking before they go out and when they are out, or the folks who only drink when they are out?
  17. We're in a nice consolidation range at the moment A super basic analysis says the longer we stay in this range, the lower the RSI for gold (It was >70 in the past couple of weeks, now it's dropped to 56.4, the bottom squiggle in the chart below). A rating above 70 means overbought, i.e. possibly in line for a downwards correction, so being at 56 is much better than being at 76 If you check the cheat sheet you'll see the 50% RSI is rising in USD terms along with the 70% RSI. A few days ago the 70% RSI was at $2385 and now it's been pushed to $2432 XAUUSD - Gold Forex Trader's Cheat Sheet - Barchart.com So the longer we stay in this range the more attractive it becomes to buy gold, which provides the foundation for the next 15% jump in prices. If we go too soon it's like leaving base camp to climb the peak with insufficient oxygen. Staying here and recharging the tank gives us a better chance of reaching the peak. Of course there are hardcore MFs who can do it without oxygen but plenty have tried in the past and their frozen corpses are still there on the side of the mountain
  18. £21.93 ... going down Get buying 🔥🔥 (My guess is we close above £22, there's an outside chance we get to around £22.40 and break $28 for the third time this month, to be sure, to be sure, to be sure)
  19. It looks like your set could be worth a small fortune. The retail price on single forks and spoons is >$300 (USD) Wallace Grande Baroque Sterling Silverware at discount. (silversuperstore.com)
  20. The Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables (the prices of gold and silver). A correlation coefficient of 0.7 to 0.85 indicates a strong positive linear relationship between the two variables, meaning that as the price of one metal (gold) increases, the price of the other metal (silver) tends to also increase and vice versa
  21. The Pearson's r coefficient between gold and silver ranges between a moderate and very strong positive correlation depending on the period in question. In general terms: A correlation coefficient between 0 and 0.3 (or -0.3) is considered a weak correlation. A correlation coefficient between 0.3 and 0.7 (or -0.3 and -0.7) is considered a moderate correlation. A correlation coefficient between 0.7 and 1 (or -0.7 and -1) is considered a strong correlation. Over the last 20 years the gold/silver correlation coefficient has been >0.7, meaning gold and silver prices have been strongly correlated over that period. Over the last 45 years gold/silver have at a minimum been moderately correlated throughout with extended periods of strong correlation In plain English: you can't stack gold and claim silver isn't an investment without committing a logical fallacy - i.e. calling silver a "non-investment" by default also makes gold a "non-investment" due to their strong correlation. Declaring you stack gold while simultaneously dissing silver and calling it "a waste of money", is essentially dissing yourself Over the last 3 months in GBP, gold is up 17.32% while silver is up 22.29% --------------------------------------------- Commander Locke: Damnit, Morpheus, not everyone believes what you believe. Morpheus: My beliefs don't require them to. --------------------------------------------- What else can we say about silver? Lots of things as it happens with silver acting as a proxy for global growth, mirroring the performance of Chinese GDP. Would we say that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an "investment"? Hmm, I guess it depends if we base our conclusions on personal opinions or observable facts Hmm, interesting. Is there any reason why silver should behave in this manner as a lagged proxy to Chinese GDP? Funny you should ask, there is: The price of silver is correlated to Chinese GDP and the manufacture of solar panels and batteries, which China has a virtual monopoly over. Well that's a strange coincidence. What would be really weird is if I told you the Chinese are starting to stack silver, like you said nobody would do. The US military are also stacking silver. That's all very odd for a metal they don't believe in. What would really seal the deal is if silver had a superior blend of performance metrics to any other naturally occurring substance that makes it ideal for certain applications. Silver has the highest conductivity of any metal, the highest reflectivity of any metal, is both ductile and malleable along with having antibacterial and catalytic properties I guess that seals the deal then, silver is officially an investment FWIW @BipolarStacker, my money would be on @Earthmetal 👍😁
  22. I think somebody already posted a similar article, sounds like something @Chronos would post but if you haven't already read it: China’s updated trading rules for gold and silver squeeze speculators, but quality purchases are rising - Metals Daily CEO Ross Norman | Kitco News The recent dip seems to have been mostly the result of hiking margin requirements in China to cool the gold market Why would China do this? Like the Americans, they want to suppress the price of gold but for different reasons - the single largest buyer of physical gold in the world is the PBOC along with the wider Chinese financial system. They are doing this to hedge against the largest physical market in the world - Chinese real estate - and are being joined by regular citizens and businesses hedging against currency debasement and slow downs in both the real estate and manufacturing sectors. India is also an important player with similar motivation. India + China and the wider Asia-Pacific region now account for 55%+ of global precious metals trading. When Kitco and others claim the west has lost control over precious metals pricing there's the proof, the Asia-Pacific region is driving more of the price action than the collective west combined
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