timsk

Note the buy back price of £17.63p! Triple BUM

Hi Lawrence, You make some fair points and, while you didn't mention prediction, your summary of the way many (most?) people apply technical analysis certainly implied it - to my mind at least. Be that as it may, your summary is a very good and accurate one, and it's why people become disenchanted with TA and lose money. They're doing it wrong - it's as simple as that. It's like watching a child trying to fly a kite facing the wind - it's bound to end in disappointment! Use it in the right way - which doesn't involve 'projection' or 'expectation' - and the results are likely to be more useful and obviate the need to seek out the services of a fortune teller on Blackpool Promenade! 😉

Hi Lawrence, Just wondering - did you miss my post, above? I ask, because if you think reading charts is akin to reading tea leaves, then you've got the wrong end of the stick. Completely! Charts predict precisely nothing. So, TA is NOT about prediction, it's about probability. Unless and until one understands this and embraces it fully, then charts will forever remain a mystery. 😉

I agree. Additionally, one only has a very rough idea when the Royal Mint will release the next coin in the series. This makes planning one's diary to ensure it's free very tricky. When the Edward VII came out last October, I was booked in for a day surgery appointment. After dropping me off at hospital, my wife got home at around 10.00am with instructions to jump straight onto her lappy and buy the coin I wanted. Unfortunately, she was too late - they were all sold out. Fortunately, a TSF member came to my rescue, and I managed to secure it at the RM price plus delivery. However, next time, I might not be so lucky. The flip side to these issues is that those who do manage to collect the complete set will have worked hard to acquire it and will have something really rather special. Well, that's my thinking! 😉

I understand how you feel SidS - and Lawrence, too. Undoubtedly, there's a lot of hocus pocus written about technical analysis and too many people believe that price will behave in a particular way because it exhibits one pattern or another or because a technical indicator says it's overbought or oversold etc. That's almost all bunkum. However, that doesn't mean charts are completely without utility. The trick, IMO, is to keep it super simple and not to read too much into them. Allow me to explain . . . For the sake of argument, if there was no price history, none of us would have any idea whether the current silver spot price of circa £19.00 is at an all time low, an all time high - or somewhere in between. And that information is useful, because it tells us the extremes beyond which buyers and sellers are not prepared to trade. Very roughly, currently it's in the middle of the two extremes. However, as the chart in the OP clearly highlights, there's an ongoing gentle downtrend, defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows. As long as this pattern is maintained, then one can conclude that the current price - being near the top of the channel - is relatively 'expensive' and, when it's near the bottom of the channel - if it ever gets there - will be relatively 'cheap'. If the pattern is broken, and a new one is formed that comprises a series of higher highs and higher lows, then one can conclude that price is in an uptrend and people can make their buying and selling decisions accordingly. I accept completely that all of this is in hindsight and that when a new uptrend is created then, with the benefit of hindsight in X weeks/months time, the current price of £19.00 might be regarded as relatively cheap. But we don't know that now; we only know what the chart is telling us today. For me, the information that it's imparting is that silver is relatively expensive and that now is not the time to make bullion purchases. Unless and until the technical picture changes, probability favours better buying opportunities presenting themselves in the future. Needless to say, all of this has to be weighed up against the fundamental picture: what's happening economically, politically and the war in Ukraine etc. Those are the drivers that will cause the technical picture to change.

Yes, they do and no, you're not! I posted this on the silver monitoring thread last Monday . . . https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/368-silver-monitoring-thread-£-gbp-only/page/197/#comment-802206

Hi Dom, Mean reversion depends on the time frame and what the input data are. On the weekly chart below, it's the dotted line in the middle. Someone else can produce another chart as valid (or as invalid) as mine that shows something very different. That's where technical analysis falls down, as there's no 'right' way of doing it. For me, Spot price will need to be well below the mean - and preferably nearer the bottom of the channel - before I get my wallet out. Horses for courses 'n all that.

Is Roger Federer a trans woman?

Please don't take this the wrong way Jeff - but I hope they keep the release times as they are! 😉

I heard the CEO, Anne Jessopp, on the radio a month or two back and she said that the Mint's objective next year (i.e. this year) is to expand their customer base beyond the U.K. and achieve a world wide reach. I can see that commemorative sets might appeal to this large - non U.K. market. It strikes me that this is a double sided coin (pun intended) for the domestic market, as it's likely to result in increased prices and competition for us (unless the mintages are ramped up accordingly) but, on the flip side, as more and more people want RM products, they should hold their value and do well over time. Pure speculation on my part, there's probably any number of flaws in my logic!

If anyone missed out buying these from RM, Crawley Coins still have some available: https://crawleycoins.co.uk/product-tag/2023commset/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2023+UK+Commemorative+Annual+Sets&cmid=f9a98cd8-8499-4c25-98bc-9c2ecde98bd4

Hope you and JTerry3 have what each other wants! If not, and you're desperate to get your hands on a 2oz Henry VII - then Crawley Coins has one but, at £300, it's perhaps not at a "decent price".

If you don't mind me saying silversky, you're being a tad harsh, as £0.30p off the recent high isn't really a setback! 😉 It looks to me as if price is enjoying a little rest before making its offensive on the £20 region. Either that, or because it's at the top of the grey channel (on the weekly chart, below) and technically 'overbought', it might do a reversal. For those who add to their stack irrespective of what price is doing, then this is of little interest and no consequence. For those who, for better or worse, like to try and time their purchases and use TA to assist with that, then now is not the time to buy. Probability favours at least a pull back - if not an actual reversal. For price to sail on through £20 without so much as a glance back - is unlikely, IMO. Just my £0.02p worth, but I won't buy any more bullion until there's some evidence that either the bulls or the bears have the upper hand.

Good analysis sixgun. 👍 I'm of the view that DXY and equity indices (DOW, FTSE etc.) are the fundamental drivers of silver and that if the former tanks and the latter enjoys a Santa rally - then there's further upside for silver before the year end. The big question, IMO, is whether or not this can be sustained into the new year. If it can, then maybe silver's long journey to the moon is already underway. However, if the much anticipated market crash happens and if there's still some life left in DXY, then silver price could drop back down to test the summer lows. Does this sound logical to you - or am I missing something?

Good post HB - interesting points. The one quoted piqued my interest as I've not heard this before. (I'm fairly new to precious metals - so that may explain why.) I wonder, is this just your opinion or is it fact? If the latter, I'd be grateful for a link if you have one please? This is important because the resource is finite, obviously, but if we (mankind) have already extracted the majority of what's available, then it means that the prospect of price for silver reaching the moon's dangly bits increases significantly.

Be prepared for it to fall a lot lower. My 'pin the tail on the donkey' prediction is that it'll test the summer lows early next year. It largely depends on what the equity indices do along with the USD$ (DXY). if the indices tank and the dollar pushes higher - then my prediction will likely come true. The former is an almost dead cert', the latter less so. Most pundits think the dollar will fall (crash even), but will it go higher first? That's the gamble. I think the medium to longer term prospects for silver are good to excellent, but I don't think it's taken off to kiss the moon's ball sack just yet. Just my £0.02p worth and probably 100% wrong! 😉

I have an open mind about silver shortage and market manipulation etc. The cynic in me says that the market is skewed, but I think that aboit the entire financial system - not just the silver market! Anyway, in the interests of balance, this video offers a different perspective:

Hi Stack', I don't want to take the thread off-topic, but I couldn't let this pass without comment. I don't know how new you are to trading or how much you know (and don't know) - so apologies if I'm teaching grandma to suck eggs. There are two key ratios for traders - these are: A. The Success Ratio. Out of any given sample, what is the total number of winning trades relative to the total number of losing trades? This is called the success ratio or win:loss ratio. B. The Profit Ratio. This is the average £’s won on winning trades, relative to the average £’s lost on losing trades. This is called the profit ratio and is sometimes referred to as the ‘Sharpe Ratio’, although this is technically incorrect. If you've only had 3-4 losing trades out of 150, then your Success Ratio is excellent. Fantastic - well done! But that's only half the story and is largely meaningless without knowing your Profit Ratio. Why? Because if you win £1.00 on 99 trades but lose £100.00 on the hundredth trade - you're not a profitable trader, even though you have an amazing success ratio. My guess is that your profit ratio isn't so great. If the losses are capped at no more than X and you can maintain the very high success ratio - you may (note emphasis) have a profitable strategy. However, in my experience, it's almost always the case that a trader with a very high success ratio blows out sooner or later with one single, catastrophic losing trade. No prizes for guessing how I know that! 😉

Stacktastic, I'd be very wary if I were you about the "pros on a daily basis they are 80-90% accurate". To sound as if one knows what one's talking about when it comes to TA and impressing those who know less than you is quite straightforward. Using that analysis to trade the markets profitably is another matter entirely. There are any number who can talk the talk (the former), but very few who can walk the walk (the latter). Regarding all the hype around silver, I agree that for the most part that hype is exactly what it is. GoldDiggerDave (GDG) makes a lot of valid comments in this regard. Personally, I view silver more as a savings vehicle than as an investment vehicle. I know my £100 in a building society will only be worth £90 this time next year - maybe less. However, if I spend that £100 today on, say, four x 1 oz Britannia's then, whatever else happens, this time next year I'll still have four x 1 oz Britannia's! (Okay - they could get nicked or I forget where I've put them etc.) My only real risk is that if I have (note emphasis) to sell them, - leaving out P&P for the purposes of this illustration - I need to get a minimum of £25.00 each just to break even. If I don't have to sell them, I can sit on them until the price moves into profitable territory. In the meantime, if price drops lower, I can acquire more silver at cheaper prices, which further reduces my average buy in price. The point being, there's the potential for my savings via silver to rise over time, whereas, via a bank or building society my savings can - and will - dwindle away. Back to the charts (sorry GDG, lol!), my view is that price is more likely to test the summer lows of circa £15.20 (red line on the chart below), before it leaves planet earth for the moon. And, like DGD, I doubt the latter will happen, although I am of the view price will move substantially to the upside in the fullness of time (years). The key fundamental drivers I watch are the $USD (DXY) and equity indices (FTSE 100 and Dow). There is much talk of the dollar crashing, which I think is distinctly possible, but it'll push higher first. If the market indices tank while the dollar surges higher, silver will plummet. (Check historical charts to see this correlation for yourself.) DGD might highlight all my 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and say this is all speculation. Or, to use the proper term - gambling. And he'd be right. My response to that is that life's a gamble and we all have to make choices based on what we think is right for our respective circumstances. For my wife, it's watching her money erode away in a building society. For me, it's stacking silver! Horses for courses. Here's the chart . . .

Hi Aecoin, Good question and I think you've received some insightful replies from those with wisdom born of experience. I started a thread recently that asked a similar question with got some equally helpful replies: Proof Coin at Bullion Price?

Thanks everyone for your replies. I noted with interest that only TheShinyStuff directly answered my question about which of the two coins I linked to in my OP is the best bet. This reminded me of a story told to me back in the 80s in person by Admiral Sir James Eberle who, given his senior naval rank, was often asked to provide a reference for someone applying for a job, loan or whatever. The rule of thumb - back then at least - was never to say anything negative about the person one is writing the reference for - only ever say something positive. One time, Sir James had to write a reference for someone about whom he had particularly low regard and absolutely nothing positive to say. His reference went like this: To whom it may concern, Reference for Joe Blogs Yours faithfully, Admiral Sir James Eberle. True story! Applying this logic to the Agatha Christie coin, reading between the lines, the consensus view is that I'd be nuts to buy it from either source! Having given it further thought, I don't especially like the design and I'm trying to limit my focus when buying silver proofs to 2 oz coins and piedfort crowns. Adding a £2 coin into the mix isn't part of the game plan. I liked to idea of the coin simply because of our connection to Agatha Christie - but I've since concluded that that's not a good metric to use when buying expensive pieces of silver. So, my decision is to scrap that idea altogether and, instead, my wife's birthday present to me is a year's subscription to TSF as a Silver Member. Needless to say, I'm delighted with my gift! 👍

I have a birthday coming up and my wife asked me what coin I'd like (or contribution towards one) as a gift. As she's a National Trust volunteer at Greenway, Agatha Christie's house just down the road from us here in beautiful south Devon, I had the idea of the perfect gift from her to me. Do you see where I'm going with this? Now, she knows even less about coins than I do (I'm a newbie), so I set about finding a few links to point her in the right direction. After a lot of trawling, I hit upon this: 2020 Silver Piedfort Proof £2 coin "Agatha Christie" NGC Graded PF69 Ultra Cameo On the face of it, it's a quality coin at a good price. However, note that it comes without a case or CoA. I'm puzzled: who goes to the trouble of grading a coin and then sells it without including the box and CoA? Does it matter, or does the NGC grading trump whatever value the box and CoA have? By way of contrast, I've found this coin: Agatha Christie 2020 UK £2 Silver Proof Piedfort Coin, Limited Edition 800 Yes, it's £15.00 more, but it includes the case and CoA. So, my question to the collective wisdom of TSF is this: which of the two coins is the best bet and why? It's worth noting, I think, that the cheaper graded coin comes with free P&P, while the more expensive coin comes with an additional £7.50 P&P. Any thoughts and insights about which is best or, alternatively, if there's an even better option besides these two - please share!

Yep, just cancelled my order with RM and placed one with Chards instead ans saved myseld the equivalent of 1oz Britannia. Happy days!

I have a couple of questions for those of you familiar with the vagaries of The Royal Mint and their workings. . . I've noticed they quite often have 'No Longer Available' next to popular coins, while others are 'Sold Out'. What's the difference? With regard to today's release, I was on the Memorial Sovereign page soon after 9.00am which surprised me as I had to queue for half an hour for the last but one British Monarchs release. (I missed out on the Edward VII release.) All but one of the offerings are 'Available to Order', with only the two coin set listed as 'In Stock'. Given one has to wait for up to 16 weeks to receive one's purchase whatever one gets, the distinction between the two categories is lost on me! Is it that they've not yet minted the 'Available to Order' coins and buyers will have to wait even longer to receive those? Also, there are no details and additional images for some coins - the Piedfort coin for example. Click on the link to that, and rather than opening up a new window with the details one normally gets - it sends one back to the homepage. Grrr! Perhaps I'm being harsh and I haven't learnt to navigate the site properly. Either that or RM aren't being quite as clear, transparent and helpful as it could be?

Thanks for your comments everyone - much appreciated. On balance, I don't think I'll back up the truck just yet! Using harrygill111's price of £42.05, (many thanks for the equations btw - very helpful), I'm paying an extra £12.95 for it's theoretical numismatic value (inc. P&P). The risk is whether this increases or decreases over time. If the latter, will the spot silver price increase sufficiently to offset it? Both risks strike me as being small, with the potential upside that both of them (i.e. spot silver price and the coin's numismatic value) rise over time. That's a risk I'm happy to take and so, on that basis, I'm inclined to buy. That said, if eBay sellers are letting them go for £10 - £15 cheaper then, obviously, that's an even better bet. However, having had a quick gander, I can't see anyone offering this coin for less than £55.00. As I'm new to the game, I'm probably not searching the platform in the best way that leads to the needles in the haystack. ". . . All depends on whether you want to hold PMs as an investment or to admire and show to your friends." I've tried showing a few coins to friends and they look at me as if I've completely lost the plot! So no, that's not my motivation Pete, investment is where I'm at.