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Bratnia

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Everything posted by Bratnia

  1. With Paxos I see you can either buy/sell PAXG directly via paxos, where they match buy/sells with adding/reducing actual physical gold, and charge a creation/destruction fee as part of that (cost to add/reduce actual gold), that is limited to London gold market trading hours; Or you can buy/sell via itBit exchange, 24/7 https://help.paxos.com/hc/en-us/sections/360008612071-PAX-Gold-PAXG- Really flexible and regulated, that uses the more advanced Ethereum network/ledger/blockchain (that caters for transactions that are more programs than just records) But that's still counter-party risk, not physical in-hand. A combination of the two seems reasonable, especially if you combine stocks and gold and periodically rebalance back to target weightings i.e. are sometimes adding gold, sometimes selling gold. Digital has the advantage of speed/ease and likely tighter spreads. Personally I don't like bonds nor cash deposits (banks), you're more often in effect lending for too little in return, more so after the taxman takes a slice. I'd rather shift bond/cash-deposit risk over to the stock side, hold 50/50 stock/hard-cash instead of bonds. Combined with gold. 50/33/17 stock/gold/hard-cash, instead of thirds each stock/gold/bonds, historically that was a mid-longer term good-enough, whilst being more old custodian banking style, half in-hand (gold and hard cash), half in stocks that can be liquidated in T+2 time (couple of days). Similar reward expectancy as thirds each stock/gold/cash-deposits I'm still in the due diligence phase, but for me its looking like Britannia one ounce gold coins, where Tavex (London) looks appealing, Paxos PAXG, perhaps in around 50/50 proportions, and Interactive Broker for stocks (very tight FX spreads and I like their higher protection limits ($500K) over that of £85K UK protection limits). BRK-B for the stocks, and if forward rewards are anywhere near like former rewards - that will be good-enough for me.
  2. The market price at any one time reflects the equal balance of supply/demand (sellers/buyers). As that deviates such as more buyers than sellers so the price tends to rise and vice versa. High prices after large/fast gains can be a attraction for new money (greed). It's nigh on impossible to call peaks or bottoms.
  3. Something like 28% gold taxation rate already in the US. The more they'd prefer you didn't use/hold it, the higher the taxation rate tends to rise.
  4. CBDC. Russian Rupee. Pretty much the same to me. Conversions will be the barrier, converting CBDC into gold or other tokens/currencies will be inclined to be closed down, similar to currency controls, only allowed to take out £100 in cash/spending for you week long family holiday a.k.a not permitted to go on holiday abroad. The hope is that a global alternative rises to commonality, where you can convert to/from that, is safe, widely accepted/used and easy. However if that is permitted to occur then the Pound would dive having lost its wide acceptance/use, so the more likely is the rise of CBDC and further controls/restrictions. Not good. How will you sell some of your gold stack when converting the sale of gold proceeds into CBDC is banned? Same for bitcoin/whatever. Likely all gold and silver will need to be submitted to the state at some point, otherwise its a temptation for individuals to use that as a currency. https://www.companydebt.com/hmrc-tax-problems/hmrcs-connect-computer-system-used-tax-compliance/
  5. When economic/financial stresses rise, so there's greater inclination for the state to either ban or heavily tax gold, as well as potentially blocking its import/export. When such laws come to pass, that's likely a good indicator to hide your gold away. At some time that will come-to-pass and you'll have side stepped the pains. But you have to both get through that period and not permit others to steal away your gold. Freedom at times ... costs time/effort.
  6. In 1934 the US Treasury bought up American gold and locked it away in Fort Knox, nationalized it. After WW2 America got common agreement to use the US Dollar for international trade settlements, where the dollar was backed by Gold. The Fed are the Custodians, and have non redeemable gold certificates issued by the Treasury at $42.22/ounce. Which is ammo for the Fed to support the dollar. A one ounce (gold) Eagle contains 1 ounce of gold, weighs a bit ore than that as its a alloy (mixed with other metals to strengthen the coin). The $50 legal tender value reflects the $42.22 official gold price that has been in place since the 1970's plus a cost to turn the gold into a nice looking coin. If the dollar came under attack and started to sink, so the price of gold on the open market will tend to rise, as does the value of the gold certificates that the Fed hold. At recent near $2000/ounce market price of gold, the Fed have collateral of gold in effect priced at $2000, that 'cost' $42.22. Around 47x leverage factor. If gold priced in dollars rose to $4000, then the Fed's leverage factor would double up to 94x ... i.e. the more the dollar comes under pressure the more leverage the Fed has to combat that. That isn't going to change any time soon. And in reflection of that legal tender gold coins are likely continue to be minted, at $50 face value - which for you and me is irrelevant as the value of the gold content is worth so much more. It is however a bottom line. If the price of gold sank to $10/ounce, at least you have a coin that you could spend or $50 of goods. Up to the end of WW2 and the British official gold price was 4.25 Pounds/ounce. A gold Sovereign one Pound face value coin has 0.2354/troy ounces of gold in it, which multiplied by 4.25 = one pound gold value. That was legal tender that was used in everyday transactions in the 19th century. Some carried around a small balance like the image below, where you could measure the size and weight of Sovereigns/half Sovereigns i.e the Pound (Sovereign) was worth its weight in value. Deposit those Pounds and that earned interest, whilst gold being finite generally saw inflation broadly average 0%. Banks were custodians. Nowadays when you deposit money into a bank it becomes the banks money, that hopefully might be returned when you ask for that loan to be repaid to you (withdrawal).
  7. 1966 UK and gold was restricted, you could only hold a small amount, weren't permitted to import/export it. That remained in effect until 1979 when the restriction was lifted. Over those 15 years gold annualized 22.5% whilst inflation annualised 10.6%. Even if you paid a 33% premium above spot for gold, and sold at spot 15 years later, you still outpaced inflation by over 5%/year. Warren Buffett is known for his dislike of gold Berkshire Hathaway Chairman letter 1979 ... Adding to that ... BRK share price at the end of 1999 would have bought a similar amount of gold as the BRK share price would have bought twenty-one years later at the end of 2020, after having ploughed back all earnings along with much blood, sweat and tears.
  8. 1965 and London Metal market price of gold £12 10s (£12.5) per troy ounce $35.13/ounce Near-as £3 gold bullion value per Sovereign. George V Sovereigns were the last that actually circulated, so the £4 lowest price in that list likely more reflects bullion value i.e. worn/scratched, but that's still a 33% market up relative to spot gold at the time!
  9. https://archive.ph/2023.09.22-142035/https://www.ft.com/content/69b297ae-7e64-4a6a-ac32-25afd699f158 Fair taxes are reasonable. HMRC however has a history of punitive taxation at times, 1968 for instance where a retrospective taxation pushed higher rate taxation up to 130% (David Bowie, Rolling Stones ...etc. decided to self exile due to such 'confiscations'). You can almost feel the groundwork being prepared for such a period of punitive taxation again. Lock-down, and then hit. Part of more cases of the likes of gold purchases resulting in transactions being blocked/bank accounts closed is likely with that in mind. It may become increasingly difficult to buy/sell physical gold as that momentum builds. Tories prepare the lock-down, Labour (after next General Election) do the confiscation. The rich as ever will side step such practices. Assets that generate no regular income flows that can be tracked; Dispose of assets via private sales (buy a painting from another for a ludicrous amount, such that when they die their estate includes a asset that is valued at much less than the price paid, or that is re-sold at a massive capital loss to offset against capital gains elsewhere) ...etc. We're entering a era where once again primary focus turns to return-of-money rather than return-on-money. I believe we're already at a point where the public sector as funded by the private sector, has the public sector being larger than the private sector (unsustainable). See also https://www.fusionconsult.co.uk/what-is-hmrcs-connect-computer-system-and-how-can-it-help-with-tax-compliance/ (HMRC's CONNECT system)
  10. For reference, I just see your reply as a square (vertical rectangle) i.e. the face with a monocle unicode value doesn't show.
  11. So if your capital is a loan, then ... borrowing (reverse psychology) Some actually do that in practice, 10% in 10x leveraged stock (Options), 90% 'safe' to reduce counter-party risk right down. Zvi Bodie as one example. For passing on capital that might otherwise be taxed, such as to their son, the son paints a few broad brush strokes onto some canvas and dad buys it as a proclaimed gifted artwork for a 7 digit sum (fundamental concept, albeit in practice via a more obscure method). Banks and cash ... are just for immediate spending, 'current' account (short term income/spending).
  12. First it will be your bank account being suspended if you buy gold. And later that will transition to if you buy too much red meat or beers/whatever. The state wants to see/control all. In turn people will lose faith in the Pound/banks and opt for alternatives ... perhaps some gold or silver of set weights, worth their weight and preferred over that of pieces of paper (plastic) provided by a state and banks that are distrusted. One ounce of gold for a round of beers and 80 ounces of silver in change ... not that far fetched.
  13. Buried in the back garden, just in case the house burns down. Badly overgrown, in need of a good turn over, not really in keeping with the other properties around the SW1A 2JL area. Never had anything go missing, not even from the unlocked shed where I keep several forks and spades
  14. Bratnia

    Weight of money

    Unfortunately I do. And remember the 1d coinage, sixpence for the saturday morning matinee biff-bash-bosh. (Mildly) the wrong side of 60 now
  15. Bratnia

    Weight of money

    67 troy ounces of gold coins recently has around (£1500/ounce) £100,000 value. Weighs around 4.57 pounds. 4.57 pounds weight of £20 notes is around 2073 grams/£20 notes (a £20 note weighs about a gram) around £41,460 value. It requires more energy to move/carry heavier things around. Pound (weight) for Pound and gold takes up less space and weighs less than £20 notes. Stop wasting energy, hold gold instead of £20 notes, its more than twice as efficient. 😉
  16. Not combining physical with more liquid/tighter spreads paper (gold fund) is another potential miss. As part of a broader asset allocation and rebalancing once/year your gold exposure will tend to rise/fall PAXG by PAXOS has caught my attention recently. I've not been into crypto at all, but I am contemplating a first step into PAXG. More along the lines of direct purchase/sales (with paxos) rather than through the crypto exchanges. With direct they actually buy (sell) physical gold 1:1. As part of that you pay a creation (destruction) fee i.e. them creating (destroying) PAXG tokens by buying (selling) physical gold. Nice being able to buy/sell any amounts near instantly, with relatively low spreads/costs. With direct you can only buy/sell during gold market trading hours, but you have the fallback option of being able to buy/sell 24/7 via the exchanges and where you can rotate into other currencies/crypto choices. If you started in 1987 with one ounce of gold, and twice that gold value in stocks (MKL and BRK (which is Berkshire Hathaway i.e. Warren Buffett)), rebalancing yearly to thirds each equal capital values in gold, MKL, BRK, then by the 2000's you were holding 11 times more ounces of gold, but where subsequently to 2012 you saw that near halve down to less than 6 ounces being held. But where by 2022 that had risen to 13 ounces being held. If you were doing that via physical gold/coins then the repeated buy/sell spreads would eat a chunk out of your overall rewards. Paxos are going down the compliant/regulated path, and use the more advanced Ethereum network, that is more a case of being a network of programs rather than just records, both of which are more inclined to prevail mid/longer term. For smaller amounts Bullion Vault still has the edge on price/cost, PaxG becomes more cost effective for larger amounts. Whichever way you hold gold there are distinct risks to each choice/method. Diversifying across a range of methods/choics reduces that risk. Is more inclined to encounter one of the risks occurring, but involves less of a loss.
  17. Or just relax https://giphy.com/clips/sosoft-dog-relax-inspirational-W8LqfxMA7Nenf8RjNl
  18. Banking system/deposits and increasingly its a interrogation of where did this money come from when you deposit, why do you need the money/cash when you withdraw. Where deposits you make becomes the banks money, free to do whatever they like within regulation, you lending to the bank, often for very little interest in return, in many cases none. Bad enough in regular times trying to draw £5000 out, let alone if there is a bank-run and you wanted/needed to draw a significantly larger amount. Prefer the older Custodial banking style, where deposits remain your money/assets, physical/in-hand. Where 'interest' earned is driven by stock gains, stocks/gold/hard-cold cash thirds - that yielded a overall 8% average type interest rate since the 1980's. If the gold and cash are already in-hand, then full access to all of your money is just the T+2 time it takes to sell the stock. I also prefer the diversity of holding multiple currencies, some US$ primary reserve currency, invested into stocks, gold global non-fiat currency, Pounds domestic currency.
  19. 2.1 Definition of investment gold Investment gold is either: (a) gold of a purity not less than 995 thousandths that is in the form of a bar, or a wafer, of a weight accepted by the bullion markets ..... From HMRC manuals
  20. If you have a similar amount in stocks as you hold in gold then .. price variations don't really matter, one (riser) will tend to feed the other (loser). Some go heavily into stocks, push for the upside. If you have enough however, have no real need to leave many millions rather than a few millions, then stock/gold/cash thirds along with a modest withdrawal rate ... tends to do the job. Where even the cash can be a 50/50 mix of hard cash and deposited cash (interest). 50/50 hard/deposited cash is nice in the respect that if they change the notes you can withdraw new notes from one bank, deposit the old notes into another bank, and when interrogated as to where did the money come from (as is pretty much mandatory nowadays), you can just show the other banks withdrawal statement. 50% (33% physical gold, 17% hard cash) in-hand, no counter-party risk, and where that retains the option to dump heavily into stocks as/when stock prices have dived. Catch one such dive and where 50% or even 66% was loaded into stocks at anywhere near the lows, historically has yielded fantastic subsequent rewards.
  21. Yes I remember that thread. With the chattels approach however and they've pretty much opened up litigation/challenge by extension to exclude the likes of wine (gold, paintings) bought/held as a investment. As for the bar, for posting/example purposes I scaled down from a London Loco Good Delivery bar :)
  22. Cold hard money is better than cash in a bank :)
  23. To add some others ... Large/long auger and bore stairway posts Within large O-Ring curtain rails Within hollowed barbell bar Within fake piping Or in case the place burns down buried in a private rear garden, not buried in the middle of the night, but as part of normal daytime gardening Self insured Security through obscurity In 18th/19th centuries safe's looked more like this
  24. https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg13350 If you sell, and then repurchase the same asset again within 30 days, then HMRC considers that as not having sold, the capital gain tax applied when you do eventually sell is from the original purchase date. So I sell a one ounce gold bar, for five times the price I paid for it some years earlier, £300 purchase price, £1500 sale price. Capital gain £1200. However if I immediately buy a Britannia one ounce coin with the sale proceeds instead, then as gold is gold, fungible, I haven't actually sold gold, which I haven't, I still own a ounce, but a coin instead of a bar. A year later I sell the Britannia, maybe for £2000, and being legal tender there's no CGT to declare. OK it cost to swap, maybe sold the bar at 1% below spot, bought the Britannia at 3.5% above spot, a 4.5% cost which on £1500 = £67.50. But that's considerably less than than the £1200 gain x 20% tax = £240 capital gain tax that otherwise would have been incurred. Is my reading/understanding correct?
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