Bratnia

There are three sources of rewards/gains, price appreciation, income (dividends/interest) and volatility. Volatility is commonly seen as being a risk, and only by taking on exposure to risk might you be rewarded. The high volatility of stocks and gold are a good thing, especially when there's a tendency towards a element of inverse correlations. If you want slow and steady go with cash deposits - but as the volatility is low so also are the rewards. 50/50 in volatile assets such as stocks and gold and if stocks double/gold halves one period and then gold doubles/stocks halve over another period, individually they yield 0%, as a 50/50 pair you make a >50% gain. Gold and stocks will have a decade or more of relatively bad outcomes, but what drives stocks to have a bad decade can see gold have a good decade and vice-versa. 1970's and gold good/stocks bad, 1980's stocks good/gold bad ... and the same again in the 1990's. 2000's gold good/stocks bad. Across 1980 to 1999 and gold prices halved in nominal terms, lost even more in real (after inflation) terms. 50/50 with stocks however and you ended up with 6 or 7 times more ounces of gold in your safe just via yearly rebalancing, without having added a single additional penny. In the 2000's when gold did well ounces of gold in your safe were moved over into buying more stock shares (at relatively low prices as stocks did poorly). Volatility isn't a risk when combined with both rebalancing and averaging in/out that smooths down that volatility to a broader overall average that incorporates the risk-premium for having taken on the 'risk' of volatility.

Of course it would be condemned but that in itself might not be sufficient. If the 300 missiles had caused 1000 deaths then the western elements of the international community would have rallied around Israel, but not to the extent of Israel not still feeling a sense of being isolated and potentially opting for a non-lethal demonstration nuclear retaliatory strike, somewhere remote within Iran, accepting of the condemnation and isolation - in feeling of already being isolated (a sense that if Iran missiles Israel now, that it may also do so in future once it has nuclear missiles). From there Iran would retaliate, and the situation escalate, but where outside of that all sides condemn the situation in order to avoid broadening - but falling upon deaf Israeli ears. Initially non-lethal/remote, subsequently some deaths and Iranian nuclear development sites targeted, then onward/upwards. 1000 initial Israeli deaths, then 10,000 then all out kill or be killed survival/extinction and in total disregard of what others might be saying at the time. Wars are all too easily started, difficult to end, and once one nuke has been thrown the second is more easily thrown.

Iran launched over 300 missiles at Israel, launched from Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, and were threatening to launch another barrage of 3000. Clearly intended to cause much damage and deaths, a thwarted extermination attempt, de-escalated by the attempt failure and Israel having nuclear weapons and the capacity to deploy those if Iran persisted with its extermination attempts. Russia and Iran sit alongside North Korea as pariah states. Had those 300 missiles impacted then more likely the international community would have rallied around Israel.

UK debt cost less in real terms now than in 2007, its government that is messed up. Supply driven inflation is easing and government spending on war benefits (some) stocks. 1941/42/43 and UK stocks gained +23%, +17%, +11%; US stocks 1942/43/44/45 in Pound adjusted terms gained +23%, +20%, +21%, +44%. Difficult to tell what gold did over those years, but silver also did very well (so might assume gold also would have done well). WW1 and Britain pretty much bankrupted itself/Commonwealth with the amount capital the state threw at anyone that could supply a big bang.

I see it going the other way. Failed attempt to cause widespread deaths/damage by Iran upon Israel, Israel not having nuked Iran in return, and I would imagine Iran is reconsidering its supply of its proxies. Better for it to calm things down - giving Iran time to evolve into a nuclear power state. With US congress now having approved the $61Bn funding for Ukraine that will quickly see arms supply into Ukraine (much of that money goes directly to US firms that manufacture and supply the weapons), move back more to being a stalemate/static situation rather than a Russian advance. Fear (rising/high gold) somewhat calmed. More a directional push towards higher stock prices/lower gold prices.

Israel were intending a immediate strong response, a.k.a massive nuclear strike against Iran, but as pretty much all of the 320 missiles thrown its way were intercepted or permitted to hit just sand its anger was talked/calmed down. Had say only 50% been intercepted and the others were hitting populated areas causing many casualties !!! So yes, Iran's irresponsible large scale launch against Israel was near a cause of a nuclear strike. Iran did try hard to cause much damage, shielding its ballistic attacks with drones (attempted to flood the iron dome shield, a tactic that has proved to be successful in Ukraine) i.e. had every intent to cause mass deaths/destruction. 220 drones, 110 ballistic. They also launched the attacks from Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, so missiles were coming in from north, south and east directions. If Israel had endured many deaths/destruction and retaliated with a nuclear strike against Tehran I suspect that others would talk that down, not launch against each other, outside of that and ... not been too bad/widespread. Israel has hundreds of nukes and would have demonstrated actual use if confronted.

What's inflation? If you keep around equal value measures of stocks and gold as the 'currency' in your (e)wallet then buying stuff (consumption goods/products/services) have historically declined at over a -4% rate Yes you have the bother that you have to convert that 'currency' (stock and/or gold) into Pounds in order to make a transaction, but a credit card can in-fill those days before the T+2 typical stock/gold sale time completes. Oh, I see 'inflation' is the rate at which keeping Pound currency in your wallet is inclined to lose purchase power over time. Surely you'd have to be a masochist to do that, Pounds are only for money you intend to spend very soon. Cash deposits/savings accounts aren't much better, they might pay a interest that compares to 'inflation', but then the state wants to tax those 'gains' !!! Be a wise shopper, spend using your credit card and then at the end of the month when that bill is due compare to see whether converting gold or stocks is the better choice for paying off that bill.

To me that's too anonymity cropped/blurred to be able to comment. Do they have blue hair? !!

A dealership may ask/record whether you're buying gold for someone else, even if so you might say no, and then later opt to privately sell that gold for 0% gain/loss on to another shortly thereafter. i.e. end up with gold bought in someone else's name and address/id, along with additional private sale/purchase/transfer records. For self insured/storage security reasons that might be good practice, no record of photo/id/address of where the gold might be being stored, but does leave the purchaser who used their ID to buy the gold potentially exposed to risks. Thinking along the lines of two brothers, one buys the gold using their ID/address, and then passes/sells that gold on to their brother who then stores it at their separate/different address. If HMRC have records of transactions/gold purchases stolen/lost and a thief visits the brother who purchased the gold in their name, opening the safe when a sharp pencil is held up to a loved ones eye would reveal a sale record/note ... no gold, sale proceeds ... spent, just a couple of grand in cash within the safe. The UK has transitioned to where it cares little for citizens safety, more a case nowadays of buyer beware, the state gives illegal migrants more care/security than the population those illegal migrants mix into even though they may have past criminal records ...etc. Very much a case of having to best secure ones own safety/security. Call the Police and they might be able to book you in to attend in several days time, if at all. Or if they do attend they send out maybe a pair of barely five foot tall WPC's that can do little if confronted with a gang of six foot burly beasts.

Just to add that I am a private/amateur investor with no affiliations. Just outlining basically my own investment approach, and where personally I prefer US stocks over UK FT All share stocks, as that has a third in UK £ home value, a third in US$ stocks, a third in global currency/commodity (gold). Income sourced via imputed rent, dividends, SWR (that in a number of years will be further supplemented with pension income).

Some retired (drawdown) investors use a 'safe withdrawal rate' (SWR) method of drawing a income from the total return of their portfolio. With SWR you draw a percentage amount of the total portfolio at the start, say 1.5% SWR, and thereafter each year you increase that £££ amount by inflation as the amount drawn as income in subsequent years, so a nice inflation adjusted yearly income. Other investors just hold stocks and spend the dividends, but where the dividend value is volatile, might in some years halve down, later double up .. etc. is more inconsistent. In the chart below I compare the final portfolio value after 30 years for all years since 1950, where one just spends the dividends, so FT All Share price only stock index with 0% SWR, and compare that to 50/50 stock/gold with a 1.5% SWR, so as though the gold half had provided a 3% net dividend via (usually tax efficient) capital gains. Dividends tend to be treated as income and taxed accordingly, so a 4% historic average dividend might have provided a 3% net dividend after a average 25% taxation rate. For the statistically minded 50/50 stock/gold provided the better risk-adjusted reward, had a lower standard deviation/better Sharpe Ratio. Also the income was more diversified, sourced from both stock dividends and SWR, was inclined to be less variable. Broadly the rewards were similar, better for stocks if you use a 'average' measure, better for stock/gold if you use a 'median' measure. In a small number of cases stocks were much better, had a maximum of 5.635 i.e. you ended with over five times more inflation adjusted portfolio value than at the start after 30 years, but is more a case of a lucky-few, who started at a time when stocks were very low/cheap. If you own your own home, and also retire with a state pension that might be considered as a form of 'bonds', and alongside those hold a 50/50 stock/gold asset allocation where around half of the income that provides is sourced from stock dividends, and half from SWR, then you have considerably broad overall exposure to multiple assets, currencies and sources of income. Where the average outcome is generally good-enough. To better align with that average you might average-in and average-out rather than lumping all-in/all-out at single points in time. As does rebalancing 50/50 stock/gold serve as a form of averaging-out of both stocks and gold. Fundamentally with the right style/asset allocation you can spend many years in a "don't worry, be happy" lifestyle/mindset. So what if gold or stocks rise or fall a lot. Just keep plugging away with averaging in/out and there's a good chance you'll be OK/do-well.

Just accept/take what's given. US data and 2021 stocks up +25%, gold down -4%, rebalancing to 50/50 had you selling some stocks to buy more ounces of gold. 2022 stocks down -20%, gold down -1% ... selling some gold to buy more stocks. 2023 stocks +26%, gold +13% ... selling some stocks to buy more ounces of gold. Helps average-out both stocks and gold, and with averaging in and out in general over many years ... you're more inclined to achieve the broad overall average outcome that is good-enough.

All or nothing risk play. Better not to try conveying physical gold across international borders, its fungible. So OK you might have to bear a 10% hit to sell, electronic transfer the sale proceeds and re-purchase gold at the desired destination, but at least that's more certain than a maybe 100%, maybe 0%. If for whatever reason selling domestically isn't a option, perhaps becomes prohibited, then posting multiple small amounts separately is less inclined to potentially hit a 100% loss.

Same for house, art ...etc. Even used to be the same for stocks in days of postal trades the broker often charged £100 (in back-then money) per trade, and the market maker would often widen bid/ask spreads to 10% or more levels. Internet/faster trading has facilitated tighter spreads/lower costs, but where more often you don't actually own the shares, the broker has them registered in their name. The indicated 10% round trip trade was 'one dealer' i.e. the more extreme case. Here's another example snapped during market trading hours A 3.3% instant round trip spread (buy and immediately sell back again) 1.47% above spot purchase spread -1.77% below spot sell-back spread and that's for a single coin, trade 10+ at a time and you'll often get a even better/tighter spread. Even with tighter stock trading costs to buy and immediately sell back £2000 of shares might cost two lots of £10 in brokers fees and perhaps a 0.5% market makers spread, £30 in total, 1.5%. And if held for a year when total returns are 5%, inflation is 5%, 0% real gain, you might be charged 20% tax on the £100 'gain' you made, whilst the stock fund manager might also take another 0.25% in fees.

Be mindful that HMRC/state do also record online transactions (CONNECT system), that is being enhanced with AI technology. And also have visibility of the financial transaction/money movement. So not much different to having to show your passport - just they already have a copy of its content/picture.

Both. Dealers have to register with HMRC. Dealers have to take anti money laundering measures ... record name, address, id (passport/driving licence) ...etc. of anyone who buys/sells more than £5K/year with the dealership, even if in smaller amounts several visits/trades ... so commonly dealers always ask for/record that data. i.e. there are multiple rule sets for HMRC/VAT/AML that have to be complied with. Anti privacy is rife nowadays. Having details of for instance how much/when you bought/accumulated gold, and a photo and your name/address is wide open to being sold on to the black market. It's not even as though that data is secure, the state often loses large amounts of data. The concept is to ultimately have every penny accounted for, for each individual, where money was obtained from and spent, that alongside facial and number plate recognition technology, internet and calls, geolocation etc. enables each inmate in the open prison to be closely monitored, and for micro-fines to be deployed. You crossed a crossing before the green-man - your electronic money account has been fined £50. You've bought too much red meat this week ... fined £100. As part of the drive to that state control all banks have been threatened to report all suspicious transactions, or else be fined, maybe lose their licence - the obvious outcome is that banks report all transactions - as desired by the state.

Recently 1 gram gold = £62 4s 2½d If I fill my car up with around 49 litres of petrol and drive at a constant 60 mph I can drive for around 5 hours (get around 30 miles per gallon). Easy/simple!

Wen

April so far and US stock (BRK) down around -4%, in part offset by Dollar having risen +1.5% relative to Pound, offset further by gold gains. Up to end of March 2024 and year-to-date was +12.7%. So gold hedges stocks (stocks hedge gold) continues to do its job. What dot com bubble burst (2000-2003). What financial crisis (2008/9). High volatility in 1990 was a concern, but averaged out over the 1989/1990 and that was just a short term blip.

Do you reckon its just a pre weekend rush to safety in a less safe world/era?

Do geopolitical risks from the economic powers dominate world gold return? https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10644-023-09572-y

Sounding like the strike was against a military area - where drone parts are made, not the Iranian nuclear development site. Early hours at the time of the strike so likely few if any casualties. More a statement by Israel i.e. we can hit your nuclear development if we so desire, a similar light damage as endured by Israel after Iran launched 350 missiles at it, not a 'did nothing' action, not a harsh return. i.e. potential de-escalation where Iran and Israel might both say fair enough, and take no further actions, or if Iran does do a large retaliation then escalation would follow, perhaps even to dragging others into a war and/or Israel deploying nuclear weapons into Iran. Initial Iranian reports are down playing the action, civilian flights have resumed in Iran, gold price spike is reverting back down again (£1921).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68830092

Used to be a case of don't mess with Royalty - harsh punishments if you did, had high trust/respect that the Royal Mail would handle/convey in a secure and trustworthy manner. Much of royal trust/respect is fading. Royal Mint, Royal Mail ... more a case of a 'avoid' flag nowadays.

Atoms thick layer of gold, formed by embedding gold between layers of titanium and carbon. A single-atom-layer thick of gold can become a semiconductor