Discussion Area for the CNY1m weekly review

shemyaza · March 5, 2016

I never saw the discussions about Industrial demand being leveraged by financial demand. Access to industrial conduits of supply has never been talked about, yet many electrical goods producers are also tapped into the financial sector utilising that supply access. It's always disregarded as set and done. Mitsubishi Group might say otherwise......

shemyaza · March 6, 2016

Week 12 arrived early and prepared for the long haul and left pleased with the performance. We review this week’s action in the 64^th weekly CNY1m review.

With CNY1m appreciation ‘+’ came the expected Type B+ which sees rising paper precious metal prices ‘B’. The Pound also saw a strong appreciation ‘+’ against the Dollar with paper precious metals rising across the board in pound terms ‘B’ so £ terms Type B+ is also applied this week. Volumes fell from last week’s highs as US equities were in lower flux than the previous week. Gold does not sell into a falling equity market but does and oil does not rise in a rising production environment but it does. Both are manipulated upwards and downwards and banks have protected their Gold allocations while lending out paper for alternative use is continued. Gold to Palladium finally moved from last week’s 2.5338 closing Friday at 2.2750 a short wait but it came. Gold (Au) to Platinum closed at 1.2885 (Pl:Au 0.7761). Merry-go-Rounds are so useful. Palladium was the star this week up +14.7%. The Dollar Index fell and in tune with normality so did the watch Paper and Physical Gold to Silver ratio’s both in Silvers favour. EGI’s and ESI’s both fell with bargains to be had out there, maybe a discounting wedge has slipped into place. Zinc powered upwards reflecting a Week 43 Silver Price of $15.822 which the closing spot price failed to achieve however due to lower oil prices now, compared to back then. Iridium and Ruthenium remain the only long term stable watch items while Rhodium ticked up another $10oz. The current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.8518, Au:Ir=2.4216 and Au:Ru=29.9817.

General Commodities: The risers this week were; Oil (3^rd week in a row), Coal (LQH16 March futures now in effect), Copper (3^rd week in a row), Zinc (7^th week in a row), Aluminium (4^th week in a row) and Cobalt. Fallers of the week were Uranium (UXH16 March Futures now in effect, 5^th week in a row down), Natural Gas (5^th week in a row) and finally Steel falling heavily to 100.00 on Thursday remaining at that price into Friday close (Snapping a 20 week stasis of 220) equities watch this number very, very closely!

Currencies: The Merry-go-Round does its beautiful thing and this week was no exception to the rule. The Russian Ruble, for the 3^rd week in a row capitalised on Oil and gained another 6 points as the strongest currency of the watch week. Now up 11% on many currencies in the last few weeks especially the Dollar. The law of averages reigns supreme in currencies (See for yourself, the graphs don’t lie, the media prefers too though). The Pound, retains last place in the currency league (Best competitiveness) but powered to 2^nd place this week only weakening against the Ruble as it picked up 5 points. The €uro courtesy of the Bundesbank (Mario and zee Germans are at loggerheads, opposite opinions, QE or not QE zat ist zee question mein fuhrer) retained strength in 3^rd for 4 points losing to the above two. The CNY1m quietly sat mid-table in 4^th and kept out of trouble picking up 3 points. The Yen and the Dollar had a slugging contest and the Dollar won pushing the Yen into 5^th strongest of the week and picking up the 2 points it didn’t want. The Dollar won its competitiveness battle of the week and grabbed the solitary point enabling the Yen to stay out in the Storm for a little longer. The Currency strength League currently stands at 1^st Yen 69pts, 2^nd Dollar 59pts, 3^rd €uro 58pts, 4^th CNY1m 57pts, 5^th Ruble 48pts and 6^th Pound 45pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: From the watch guard towers we see a mixed bag of Bond Yield movements this week. Yields that fell and saw Bond prices rise with demand were; Brazil, Mexico, Singapore and India. Bond Yield risers this week seeing falling demand were; USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.4291%), Holland, Japan (-0.0550%), Hong Kong and China (2.933%). Bonds gently sold into Equities this week. The BoJ again re-iterating its 30yr mantra on Wednesday of No Economic Growth without Structural Reform.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): These expanded slightly this week by $4.749bn to $291.425bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total fell lower again closing down 9816 ticks to $3.22816 Trillion from $3.32632 Trillion. The downward trend has continued.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its slow recovery upwards adding an extra 22pts this week to reach 349 at the close of the week. Still far below breakeven for the industries around it but improving. All stock markets had a fairly quiet positive week in the end and all finished higher on the watch list. The Japanese had the strongest week of the list showing weakness in currency is good for business. An overall quieter week was welcomed. How long it lasts is for anyone to guess now.

With UK Money Supply figures due next week we bid adieu to Week 12, Blankety Blank cheque book and pen in hand as we welcome Week 13 again to the stable. Last year it brought Type A- to the table but sub 10million volumes so we hope it brings joy and happiness with a firm yet sturdy B at least to the gunfight. Gold finished at $1158.23, Silver was $15.64, Palladium was $790.01 and Platinum was $1115.00. Well done to West Ham on a remarkable comeback and Leicester for showing it wants it more. So after a quiet review, until next week, keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for those cigars. Same time same place.

shemyaza · March 13, 2016

Week 13 waltzed in and minded shop during a mixed week. The ECB loaded it’s bazooka but got it back to front just as the BoJ did as we scrutinise the numbers in the 65^th Weekly CNY1m review.

CNY1m Appreciation ‘+’ was observed however an unexpected fall ‘A’ in 3 of the 4 main paper precious metals ‘1’ with Palladium ‘0’ the lone riser of the week giving the Type stamp of A1101+ for Week 13. In Pound terms, Sterling again Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and also saw the above with Palladium bucking the falling trend gaining the £ term stamp also of A1101+. Volumes wanted to display ‘Transition’ this week but will this be true transition after 2 previous false signals in 2015? Paper Gold volume fell as equities displayed less volatility (PPM) and sold quietly into Paper Oil. I must stress this mechanism’s importance as the Gold to Brent Crude ratio fell again from 32.3626 to 31.0400 for the week in Brent crude’s favour. 4 weeks ago Week 9 saw the top of the ratio at 37.7863. Silver volume rose again showing the 2^nd week of higher volume versus Gold. A transition indicator. The Dollar Index moved downwards again assisting Silver for the 2^nd week in a row. The Gold to Palladium ratio fell from 2.2750 to 2.1837 for the week in Palladium's favour. The Gold to Platinum ratio rose after last week’s fall from 1.2885 to 1.3014 in Gold’s favour. I expect to see this ratio reach 1.0 then fall below 1.0 this year. Did Canada just load up on Platinum? EGI reversed its direction this week and expanded outwards to 5.6037, demand slippage or oversupply (Consumers selling back for profit as foreseen in previous weeks). ESI also reversed course and contracted with signs of either higher demand or reduced supply or both falling to 27.2868. Is the Comex/London Fix showing signs of Arbitrage towards the East’s new pricing mechanism? Now then Zinc fell reflecting a price of $16.03oz/CNY1m 102.1781oz Silver & Brent at $50.42/CNY1m 321.226 in Week 44. $0.57 down on the $10.13 oil difference. Not quite there yet. Iridium and Ruthenium remained steady while Rhodium rose 2 notches higher to $700oz to make this week’s overall Paper Seven PM performance 2up, 2par, 3down. The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.7866, Au:Ir=2.4050 and Au:Ru=29.7762.

General Commodities: Gains were seen this week in Oil (4^th week in a row with WTI rising more strongly due to PPM influence), Coal, and Natural Gas (up 8.14%). The fallers of the week were Uranium (falling for the 6^th week in a row and this week heavily by 9.24%, a Fracking switch from Oil into Uranium perhaps), Copper, Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt. Steel held steady at the lower level. Rises and Fallers were reversed from last week except Uranium. When Steel falls it usually takes Equities with it.

Currencies: This week in the fairground we saw the Ruble again remaining strongest of the watch basket for the 4^th week in a row appreciating against all (media yet to mention it) as it collected another 6pts but begins to suffer from its long term competitive run of weakness as it starts to attain less competitiveness as a stronger currency. Next strongest of the week (check for yourself the weekly currency graphs) was the Bazooka hit €uro. Mario Mario Mario, the Bundesbank vill not be ze happy mein fuhrer. Yes, Mario turned Bonds into Commodities for price as did the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and so gaveth with one hand and led to taketh more with the other as Bonds rise in price with greater Negative rates. Yield is irrelevant in a Negative environment. However Mario has widened QE into a pseudo Japanese, Window Guidance format (Japan 1952-1989 ended abruptly leading to the current great recession for structural reform imposition), maybe a fundamental flaw is being appreciated in capitalism finally. "Command Capitalism" worked for post war Germany, UK, USA, Japan etc etc…..5pts for the stronger €uro. I wonder if RDS, VW, BMW bad debt will be bought up, I wonder…... Next strongest was our Pound Sterling which couldn’t compete with the Bazooka strengthening and happily weakened for better competitiveness for 4pts. Now into the weaker half of the week we see the CNY1m sat quietly mid-table with 3pts. The fight for the competitive wooden spoon went to the Yen as the USA was disappointed to strengthen over it by close to pick up the unwanted 2pts this week. The Yen just managed to weaken enough despite massive Yen inflows from investments abroad to clinch weakest (most competitive) of the week and the remaining 1 point. The Currency strength league currently stands at 1^st Yen 70pts, 2^nd €uro 63pts, 3^rd Dollar 61pts, 4^th CNY1m 60pts, 5^th Ruble 54pts and 6^th Pound 49pts. (Notice Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest).

Government 10 Year Bonds: The watch biscuit kitchen observed Bond Price/Demand rises thus Yield falls for the week in; Brazil, Mexico, Holland, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and China (2.909%). Bond Price/Demand falls thus Yield rises were seen in; USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3465%) and Japan (-0.022%). Equities sold into Bonds and Paper Energy this week.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): These contracted for the week by $7.992bn to $283.433bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total fell lower again closing down 21509 ticks to $3.01307 Trillion from $3.22816 Trillion. The downward trend continues.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its slow recovery upwards adding an extra 39pts this week to reach 388 at the close of the week. Still far below breakeven for the industries around it but improving. Stock Markets had another fairly quiet week. Of the watch equity indexes only the Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Russell 2000 indexes saw rises whilst the rest saw modest falls, noting China had the worst of the watch this week. The Dow showed PPM manipulation with the Russell2k very flat for the week. The rally should be coming to an end shortly.

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a rise in real inflation from 4.95513% to 5.23721% from March 2015 to February 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.85644% this equates to 100p being worth 90.2727p in 12 months or Inflation of 110.775p required for Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or 10.775%. M1 Money Supply figures showed a greater rise in real inflation from 6.2521% to 7.64811% from February 2015 to January 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the lower Month on Month rate of 0.79635% this equates to 100p being worth 90.9206p in 12 months or Inflation of 109.986p required for Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or 9.986%. Real Inflation rose this month with future Money Supply trending towards 8% going forward however M0 expansion is falling behind M1, M2 and M3.

With the review completed we dismiss Week 13 with a Yorker and kindly welcome back Week 14 from a one year leave of absence. Week 14’s Year 1 review saw; Type B1101+, $=CNY1m 6.1670, Gold rise to $1182.38oz/CNY1m 7291.7375oz with Volume of 3,306,696. Silver rise to $16.73oz/CNY1m 103.1739oz with Volume of 5,552,128. Palladium falling to $775.20oz/CNY1m 4780.6584oz and Platinum rising to $1137.00oz/CNY1m 7011.8790. The Gold to Silver ratio was 70.674, Gold to Palladium was 1.525 and Gold to Platinum was 1.040. We’ll see how Week 14 performs this time while sat in the hot seat. We saw the Super Mario get his Bazooka out, firing backwards. We saw Gold touch $1283.01oz, Silver touch $15.73 but unable to break through that ceiling. Palladium tickled $584.00oz and Platinum regaining support glancing at $990.40oz but still searching for the Week 9 high of $1007.70oz. We’ll re-record not fade away as we search for answers in the Week 14 review so keep the Marshmallows warm, the Cider on ice and the camp fire well stoked so stay tuned, same time, next week for the CNY1m review.

shemyaza · March 20, 2016

Week 14 comes around and brings with it Minstrels and Mr Kiplings Bakewell Tarts as the Plunge Protection Team’s mechanism brought the feel good factor to the numbers. Now to the dissection of this week in the 66^th CNY1m review.

Type B+ was the stamp this week as the CNY1m appreciated ‘+’ and all paper precious metals rose in price in Dollar and CNY1m terms ‘B’. In Pound terms a weaker rise was seen ‘B’ with Silver and Palladium (Cheap) rising ‘1’ in Pound terms but Gold and Platinum (Expensive) falling ‘0’ bringing a sterling Week 14 stamp of B0110+ with the Pound appreciating ‘+’ against the Dollar. Pound value of all four rose from £1946.405 to £1949.853 so the B stamp is implemented even though Gold and Platinum fell, Silver and Palladium more than compensated in rising. This Expensive to Cheap transition tends to indicate the mid-point of recession into growth but time will tell over the coming months. Volumes fell for both Gold and Silver this week, following the narrative you saw last week with Silver above Gold volume for the 3^rd week with Oil again rising. Gold to Brent fell again to 30.3188 from last week’s 31.0400 close (Week 9 Top of 37.7863). Gold to Palladium fell to 2.1383 from 2.1837 last week. Gold to Platinum fell to 1.2994 from 1.3014 last week. Palladium to Silver was up at 37.2179 from 37.0248 and Platinum to Silver was down at 61.2478 from 62.1283. Moving on to the Dollar Index we saw a 3^rd weekly fall to 95.063 which benefits Silver to Gold. The Aggregate Index I watch combines Paper Gold to Silver ratio with the Dollar Index (Not FXCM which includes the Aussie Dollar at 11888 -85) to create a type of Slugging Percentage effect of 174.647 -2.401 clearly favourable to Silver. Last week this $INDGtS Agg was 177.048 -1.344 allowing greater clarity. In a weakening dollar scenario the Gold to Silver ratio trends downwards historically. EGI expanded this week however ESI contracted reflecting likely Gold availability from cash-ins of physical holdings from the recent Pound weakness. Silver is likely seeing a rise in demand. Transition continues to be indicated, Bonds also reflect this. Zinc bounced back from last week’s fall where Week 43 is more closely reflected this week (Zinc 1836 & Silver $15.822oz/CNY1m 100.6279 in Week 43) as Zinc rises so rises Silver. That’s where the likes of BHP Biliton and Rio Tinto can change the ballgame if they are now using the Eastern exchanges. Just a conjecture though. Zinc production cuts would induce a movement or diverted supply. Look back at Week 43 and 44 to see the delayed effects as an example and the current ‘Arbitrage’ benefit to supplying the East. Subtle but sure. In week 43 Brent was $52.51/CNY1m 336.964 to Friday’s close of $41.40/CNY1m 268.148 nearly there now, Arbitrage pull. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium remained steady for this week’s overall Paper Seven ‘7PM’ performance 4up, 3par, 0down or 7PM=430. The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.7931, Au:Ir=2.4138 and Au:Ru=29.8857. Most interesting trends numerically at the moment.

General Commodities: It gets more interesting every week, the risers in Week 14 were Oil (PPM manipulates Gold upwards and downwards before, during and after equity open/close times, selling into Oil is now the only effective method as it appears the smart money is leaving equities for Bonds and Commodities and note WTI rose strongly compared to Brent. Question, what was Gold’s high this week and when precisely?), Coal (3^rd week running), Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper and Zinc. Downers were Aluminium and Cobalt with Steel now static again. The next few weeks will provide a better picture of this area.

Currencies: The Yin and Yang of musical chairs continues as the Ruble for the 5^th week running was the strongest currency of the bunch and again no mention in the media. Shhhh don’t wreck the theatre of distraction. 6 points earned and 30 from 30 in the last 5 weeks. Next strongest we see the slow car crash of Japan earning 5 points as Negative Interest rates have a most subtle effect. Next strongest was the €uro, if anything is shown by the BoJ (No growth without structural reform), the ECB is seemingly following suit earning 4 points this week, the stress in the Nikkei index should worry European equity traders. Next strongest was our Pound Sterling weakening against all the above and earning 3 points but quietly. The Chinese CNY1m is matching the Dollar devaluation but was stronger earning 2 points whilst the Dollar is now depreciating the most rapidly but becoming more competitive in the process earning the last point. When the US Devalues, why is that ok but for anyone else it’s an issue? The Currency strength league currently stands at 1^st Yen 75pts, 2^nd €uro 67pts, Tied 3^rd Dollar 62pts & CNY1m 62pts, 5^th Ruble 60pts and 6^th Pound 52pts (Notice Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest).

Government 10 Year Bonds: This week saw demand rise in all watch Bonds, the smart money. Yield curves continue into severe inversion as prices rise and Yields fall further. No fallers in demand where prices fall and Yields rise this week. Dollars moved into Bonds and Commodities/Energy.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): These expanded slightly for the week by $6.455bn to $289.888bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total again fell lower closing down 5508 ticks to $2.95799 Trillion from $3.01307 Trillion. The downward trend continues which is sensible.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its slow recovery upwards adding an extra 7pts this week to reach 395 at the close of the week. Still far below breakeven for the industries around it but improving be it more slowly this week which is a concern. Stock Markets had another fairly quiet but good week if you weren’t Japanese with nearly all watch equity markets rising. China’s composite index was strongest of the risers however currency strength in the Yen is causing severe stress now for the Japanese Nikkei and Topix which fell this week contrary to everyone else. The coming weeks will clarify the situation as a Yen devaluation must occur soon or Japan is in deep financial trouble.

With UK Money Supply already released we close a successful week 14 stewardship with a reward of Terry’s All Gold and a subscription to Lego weekly. Next week we welcome back week 15 which oversaw last year the $:CNY1m of 6.1570 a Type stamp of B1100+, Gold rising to $1198.53oz/CNY1m 7379.3492oz with Volume up to 3,306,696. Silver rising to $16.959oz/CNY1m 104.4166oz with Volume up to 7,717,751. Palladium falling to $739.00oz/CNY1m 4550.0230oz. Platinum falling to $1135.50oz/CNY1m 6991.2735oz. The Gold to Silver Ratio was 70.672. The Gold to Palladium ratio was 1.622 and the Gold to Platinum ratio was 1.056. This week we saw Gold touch $1270.935oz, Silver touch $16.135oz, Palladium touch $596.70oz and Platinum touch $993.50oz. As we wave goodbye to Week 14, the opening ceremony is sold out for Week 15’s entry. The Sherry glasses will be full and the Findus Turkey Drumsticks ready in the oven as we await the outcome of the coming week of movements in next week’s installment of the CNY1m review.

shemyaza · March 26, 2016

Note for this week, week 15. Contrary to The Silver Doctors waking up to Gold and Silver item, The Dollar and CNY1m both peg Appreciated against the rest of the world. Check your currency charts with weekly settings. £, Yen, €....etc all devalued against the above with the Ruble 3rd strongest, funny that USA, China, Russia....... Stating the opposite is very strange when any chart says $, Yuan, Ruble had pegged Appreciation. Not quite sure why Harvey Organ mis-directed like that, most strange.

shemyaza · March 27, 2016

Week 15 arrives with cue ball in hand hoping to build a break and win the deciding frame. As we take a snapshot of the pre-Easter 67^th CNY1m weekly review.

Type A- was observed for this week with all paper precious metals falling in both US Dollar and Chinese CNY1m terms ‘A’. The CNY1m depreciated against the Dollar ‘-‘ providing the Week 15 official stamp. Both currencies were the strongest in the world this week with the Ruble just behind in a full peg alignment. In Pound Sterling terms, Type A1110- was observed with paper precious metals falling (Gold, Silver & Palladium) ‘A1’ except Platinum ‘0’ rising due to Sterling weakness overcoming the value fall. Volumes fell once again for both Gold and Silver with Silver remaining ahead and is indicative of future movements. Gold to Brent Crude fell again this week to 30.1019 whilst Gold to Palladium fell to 2.1271 and Gold to Platinum fell to 1.2864. Palladium to Silver rose to 37.7085 and Platinum to Silver rose to 62.3508. The Dollar Index reversed its 3 week fall moving higher in favour of Gold in the paper Gold to Silver ratio which also moved upwards and back above 80 for the week. The combined index rising from 174.647 to 176.484 in Golds favour. US Dollar FXCM rose to 12009 +121. The Physical £ Gold to Silver ratio rose slightly from 66.205 to 66.487 for the week. EGI expanded higher for the week with the ESI expanding even higher due to prices falling like a feather compared to the spot price stone. Petrol stations know this well. Zinc fell and as it does so does Silver, just like Gold and Copper. PPM salvage manipulation was at hand this week if Dow watching is carefully undertaken. That stamp ‘-‘ or ‘+’ defines more than meets the eye. Anyway Iridium and Ruthenium remained in stasis whilst Rhodium bucked the trend and decided to jump $40oz on the week finishing at $740oz with the 7PM equalling 124 (1up, 2par, 4down). The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.6442, Au:Ir=2.3398 and Au:Ru=28.9695.

General Commodities: This week for Gold the PPM 1pm Gold sale propped up the 1.20pm Oil buy recovery for the Dow however the Risers this week were; Coal (4^th week running) and…that’s it. The Fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent and WTI however the PPM effect weakened WTI more-so to protect the Dow), Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc, Aluminium (3^rd week running) and Cobalt also 3^rd week running. Steel remains static for the 3^rd week in a row. T-67 on that historical trend.

Currencies: The Ruble was only just knocked off its perch with 10 minutes left before this week’s market close. The Dollar just nudged ahead and so did the CNY1m bringing the three Trilateral currencies into peg alignment for the week. The Dollar bouncing from weakest to strongest this week and 6pts. The CNY1m pegged carefully and slipstreamed for 5pts. The Ruble also pegged carefully and slipstreamed into a more competitive 3^rd strongest and 4pts after 5 straight weeks as the world’s strongest currency. (Note: The Top 3 Appreciated against the entire world this week!). 4^th strongest of the week was the €uro with 3pts, 5^th strongest of the watch was the Yen, struggling overall with un-competitive strength but helpfully weakening with 2pts and finally one of the weakest world currencies since August 24^th our Pound, picks up the remaining 1 point but retains a strong competitive advantage. The Currency strength league currently stands at 1^st Yen 77pts, 2^nd €uro 70pts, 3^rd Dollar 68pts, 4^th CNY1m 67pts, 5^th Ruble 64pts and 6^th Pound 53pts (Notice again Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest).

Government 10 Year Bonds: The Bond market showed very mixed signs this week as a mixed bag occurred. Bond Price rises (Yield falls) were seen in Germany, Switzerland (-0.3765%), Singapore and India. Meanwhile Bond price falls (Yield rises) were seen in the USA, Brazil, Mexico, Holland, Hong Kong and China. No real change was seen in the UK and Japan (-0.1030%) this week.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): An expansion occurred this week by $17.667bn to $307.555bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total reversed its recent downward trend ticking up slightly closing up 646 ticks to $2.96445 Trillion from $2.95799 Trillion. The downward trend has ended for now.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its slow recovery upwards adding an extra 11pts this week to reach 406 at the close of the week. Still far below breakeven for the industries around it but improving. Stock Markets were mixed this week as the Dow, Russell 2000, FTSE100, FTSE All Share, Micex and Hang Seng exchanges closed lower for the week. Inversely the Nikkei, Topix and the China Composite rose by close of play. No real movement was seen either way.

With UK Money Supply already released we close a mixed week 15 watch into the archive as a quiet week was observed. Week 16 is welcomed next week which last year oversaw the $:CNY1m of 6.1425 a Type stamp of D1001+, Gold rising to $1202.38oz/CNY1m 7385.6192oz with Volume down to 2,304,768. Silver falling to $16.763oz/CNY1m 102.9667oz with Volume down to 3,612,753. Palladium rising to $740.50oz but falling to CNY1m 4548.5213oz. Platinum rising to $1151.50oz/CNY1m 7073.0888oz. The Gold to Silver Ratio was 71.360. The Gold to Palladium ratio was 1.624 and the Gold to Platinum ratio was 1.044. This week we saw Gold touch $1260.075oz, Silver touch $16.005oz, Palladium touch $605.60oz and Platinum touch $997.70oz. As we become full with Chocolate eggs and Hot Cross Buns we begin to anticipate with Wok in hand, Chop Suey prepared and the Pot of Colombian Coffee ready to go for Week 16’s CNY1m weekly review. Well done England by the way, 3-2 and what a match too.

shemyaza · April 3, 2016

Due to the nice weather this weekend, I'll have the week 16 review and stats ready tomorrow evening. Just been so busy with normal stuff. I try to have this done for Sunday evenings for us all so apologies for that.

shemyaza · April 5, 2016

Week 16 jumped aboard and set course at six knots for this week’s 68^th CNY1m weekly review.

Type D1001+ was observed this week, another of the more deeper type stamps which require greater explanation as we seem to edge closer to the new Chinese international pricing mechanism. This week the CNY1m appreciated against the Dollar ‘+’ whilst the uptrend ‘D’ was observed in Dollar Gold (1) and Dollar/CNY1m Platinum (1) whilst Silver (0) and Palladium (0) fell in both Dollar and CNY1m terms. Gold however fell in CNY1m terms thus the newly introduced (1) underlines the contrast. In Pound Sterling terms Type C1110+ was seen where the Pound appreciated against the Dollar the down trend ‘C’ hit Gold (1), Silver (1) and Palladium (1) with Platinum (0) rising in Pound and Dollar terms. Gold was underlined by its contrasting rise in Dollar terms (1). A Pivot was observed in Gold this week. Volumes rose as the expected injection of Gold sell value dripped into Oil and Equities to prop up the markets when required. The Plunge Protection Mechanism. Gold volumes this time spiking higher than Silver for once. Gold to Brent Crude saw an unusual rise this week to 31.6659 whilst Gold to Palladium rose to 2.1655. Gold to Platinum fell again to 1.2809 with Palladium to Silver falling to 37.5874. Platinum to Silver also saw a rise to 63.5444. The Dollar Index fell sharply to 94.608 which has yet fed into the Gold to Silver ratio with the against trend rise occurring to 81.394 where a fall is typical expected. The combined Index $INDGtS Agg, fell from 176.484 to 176.002 indicating a Silver strength direction. US Dollar FXCM fell to 10887 -122. The Physical £ Gold to Silver Ratio saw another rise in Gold’s favour this week from 66.487 to 66.893. EGI contracted indicating the start of discounting whilst ESI expanded slightly but again repeating last week’s petrol price analogy. Zinc rose this week, whilst Copper fell. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium were static with the 7PM showing 232 (2up, 3par, 2down). The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.6522, Au:Ir=2.3512 and Au:Ru=29.1100.

General Commodities: This week the Risers were; Natural Gas, Zinc and Aluminium. The Fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent and WTI however the PPM effect weakened WTI more), Coal, Uranium (Fracking joint supply now switching from Oil to Uranium), Copper and Cobalt (4^th week running). Steel remains static for the 4^th week in a row. T-60 on that historical trend.

Currencies: The €uro dominated this week defeating all and was the strongest currency of the watch collecting a very unwanted 6 points. The Ruble was just behind and defeated only by the €uro collecting an equally unwanted 5 points of strength. The Yen ended third strongest this week with 4 points whilst the Pound found mid-table with 3 points. Shadow pegging was again in full view as CNY1m depreciated slightly slower than the Dollar this week picking up 2 points whilst first to worst was again plucked by the Dollar for the remaining point. It’s been 20 weeks now since we started watching this Merry-Go-Round and you already see the way currencies move in cycles. The Currency strength league currently stands at 1^st Yen 81pts, 2^nd €uro 76pts, Tied 3^rd Dollar 69pts, CNY1m 69pts & Ruble 69pts and finally in 6^th The Pound with 56pts (Notice once again Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest and the Tri-Laterals are now all 3^rd).

Government 10 Year Bonds: The Bond market saw impressive demand this week across the board highlighting the flight to safety from equities is in full swing. Bond Price rises (Yield falls) were seen in the USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3861%), Holland, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and China (2.889%). Meanwhile Bond price falls (Yield rises) were seen in Japan (-0.0750%) which compounded the demand flight away from Equities and Bonds into sideline Yen.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): A larger expansion occurred this week by $62.133bn to $369.688bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total ticked up by 4671 ticks to $3.01116 Trillion from $2.96445 Trillion by close. The upward trend has resumed.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its slow recovery upwards adding an extra 44pts this week to reach 450 by close. Still far below breakeven for the industries around it but still improving. Stock Markets were mainly up this week as the Dow, Russell 2000, FTSE100, FTSE All Share, Chinese Composite and Hang Seng exchanges closed higher for the week. Inversely the Nikkei, Topix and the Russian Micex fell by close of play. The Japanese exchanges suffering badly now from the very strong Yen. Private Equity sold into Bonds while manipulation equity replaced it. (USD:NZD, USD:URU a great billionaire flow filter).

With UK Money Supply released next week we saw the undecidedness wash across the markets generally. Next week we welcome in Week 17 and looking back to last year we watched $:CNY1m of 6.1510 a Type stamp of B1011-. Gold rose to $1207.36oz/CNY1m 7426.4714oz with Volume up to 2,789,942. Silver falling to $16.463oz/CNY1m 101.2639oz with Volume up to 6,172,860. Palladium rising to $772.47oz/CNY1m 4751.4630oz. Platinum rising to $1167.25oz/CNY1m 7179.7548oz. The Gold to Silver Ratio was 73.270. The Gold to Palladium ratio was 1.563 and the Gold to Platinum ratio was 1.034. This week we saw Gold touch $1244.12oz, Silver touch $15.537oz, Palladium touch $583.30oz and Platinum touch $983.80oz. We wait with baited breath as next week’s data fills in the blanks that is the chapter by chapter book of the CNY1m review.

shemyaza · April 7, 2016

Deutsche Bank €13.56 per share with a Lehman Brothers looking graph now and the Dollar to Yen now 108.32

shemyaza · April 10, 2016

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WCTCL

shemyaza · April 11, 2016

Week 17 rode into town and tried to rule the world as we pick up the magnifying glass and look closely at this week’s 69^th CNY1m review.

Type B1101- was the stamp this week as CNY1m/Dollar value Precious Metals (Paper remember not Physical) mainly rose (B) as Gold (1), Silver (1) and Platinum (1) all saw rises this week. Palladium fell (0) which tied with the CNY1m slightly depreciating against the Dollar (-) gives the weeks Type stamp. In Pound Sterling to Dollar terms again Type B1101- was observed, as above with the Pound depreciating against the Dollar (-). No Pivots were seen this week. Gold again led Silver in Volumes as PPM adjustments were strong (PPM Pushes Gold and Silver UP and DOWN for the purposes of Equity and Oil adjustment via the Dollar which appears in fluctuations in say the Dollar Index). If you observe the Dollar Index lows of 2008 and 2011 you’ll notice Palladium then Platinum first spiked, before in 2011 Silver then Gold spiked. Ratio’s defined the order of those spikes. Anyway enough of what’s clearly obvious. Gold to Brent Crude saw a fall to 29.5986 whilst Gold to Palladium rose to 2.2918. Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2823 with Palladium to Silver falling to 35.2347. Platinum to Silver saw a fall to 62.9726. The Dollar Index fell to 94.191 which has now fed into the Gold to Silver ratio with the fall occurring to 80.750. The combined Index $INDGtS Agg fell from 176.002 to 174.941 indicating current Silver strength direction. US Dollar FXCM fell to 11874 -13 (Last week’s figure of 10887 should say 11887). The Physical £ Gold to Silver Ratio saw a fall in Silver’s favour this week from 66.893 to 66.533. EGI contracted strongly indicating the continuation of discounting whilst ESI contracted slightly with premium continuation. Zinc fell strongly this week as did Copper. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium were again static with the 7PM showing 331 (3up, 3par, 1down). The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.6739, Au:Ir=2.3821 and Au:Ru=29.4929.

General Commodities: This week saw Rises in; Crude Oil (Brent and WTI however the PPM effect weakened WTI more), Uranium and Natural Gas. The Fallers this week were; Coal, Copper (3^rd week in a row), Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt (5^th week running). Steel remains static for the 5^th week in a row. T-53 on that historical trend.

Currencies: The Yen dominated this week defeating all and was the strongest currency of the watch collecting an extremely unwanted 6 points. The €uro was just behind and defeated only by the Yen and CNY1m collecting an equally unwanted 5 points of strength. The Ruble ended third strongest this week with 4 points weaker only than the Yen and €uro whilst the Dollar found mid-table with 3 points. Shadow pegging was again in full view as CNY1m depreciated slightly slower than the Dollar this week and picking up 2 points whilst the Pound regained it’s wooden spoon form to pick up the remaining point. It’s been 21 weeks now since we started watching this Merry-Go-Round and the Currency strength league currently stands at 1^st Yen 87pts, 2^nd €uro 81pts, 3^rd Ruble 73pts, 4^th Dollar 72pts, 5^th CNY1m 71pts and finally in 6^th The Pound with 57pts (Notice once again Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest and the Tri-Laterals are now all sat around the 72 point campfire). The BoC seem to have decided on a Peg against a basket of currencies which includes the Dollar, €uro, Yen, Ruble and Pound which is most pleasing.

Government 10 Year Bonds: The Bond market saw impressive demand again this week mainly across the board with some of Asia and South America seeing a fall in demand. Bond Price rises (Yield falls) were seen in the USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.4098%), Holland, Japan (-0.1000%) and India. Meanwhile Bond Price falls (Yield rises) were seen in Brazil, Mexico, Hong Kong, Singapore and China (2.935%). Private equities sold into Bonds and Yen this week.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): A very large contraction occurred this week by $101.181bn to $268.507bn meanwhile the 10 week rolling total ticked down by 4060 ticks to $2.97056 Trillion from $3.01116 Trillion by close. The upward trend has stalled and if the contraction shows similar tendencies to the Week 04 FRRR fall then this will impact Precious Metal’s, Commodities and Equities negatively with Bond demand potentially rising into safety. One to watch as well is the CNY1m:Yen flag (Down from 17.22106 to 16.65520) which like Week 4 and this week saw a massive Yen Appreciation. Will cause and effect be a ripple?

**Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its strong recovery upwards adding an extra 89pts this week to reach 539 by close. It is now not far below breakeven for the industries around it but very close now. Stock Markets were mainly down this week as the Dow, Russell 2000, Nikkei Dow, Topix, Chinese Composite and Hang Seng saw declines. The FTSE100, FTSE All Share and Russian Micex were up this week in contrast. The Japanese exchanges are now suffering extremely badly from the very strong Yen where $:Yen 115 is seen as break even for the Japanese. Private Equity sold into Bonds while manipulation equity replaced it. (USD:NZD, USD:URU a great billionaire flow filter and continues to show flight).

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a slower rise in M0 real inflation from 5.237213% to 5.41743% from April 2015 to March 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.28350% this equates to 100p being worth 96.6599p in 12 months or M0 Inflation of 103.456p required for Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or 3.456%. M1 Money Supply figures showed a greater rise in M1 Real Inflation from 7.64811% to 8.09747% from March 2015 to February 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the higher Month on Month rate of 1.46256% this equates to 100p being worth 84.0099p in 12 months or Inflation of 119.0337p required for Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier of 19.034%. Real Inflation rose this month with future Money Supply trending towards 8.5% going forward however M0 expansion is falling further behind M1, M2 and M3 significantly.

Next week we see Week 18 stride back in from last years cold which saw; $:CNY1m of 6.1415 with a Type stamp of A1101+. The Dollar Index closing at 97.446. Gold fell to $1203.27oz/CNY1m 7389.8827oz with Volume sharply up to 29,884,640. Silver falling to $16.269oz/CNY1m 99.9161oz with Volume also sharply up to 31,894,406. Palladium rising to $779.80oz/CNY1m 4789.1417oz. Platinum falling to $1165.94oz/CNY1m 7160.6205oz. The Gold to Silver Ratio was 73.961. The Gold to Palladium ratio was 1.543 and the Gold to Platinum ratio was 1.032. This week we saw Gold touch $1243.28oz, Silver touch $15.380oz, Palladium touch $562.80oz and Platinum touch $967.30oz. Until next week we shall sit and wait, Radio Times in hand, as we tune the antenna, move our hands for the better signal and turn up the sound as we prepare for next week’s epic adventure that is the CNY1m review.

shemyaza · April 17, 2016

Week 18 was voted as Weeky McWeekface 18 as the fall out of the UnaOil and Panama Paper leaks continue to distract attention. The Final decision on naming of Week 18 will be discussed in a Panamanian Closed Office meeting in the coming months when it’s all blown over and forgotten about. We’ll ignore those for others as we delve into the more important matters of the 70^th CNY1m review. No it’s not going for an internet naming vote.

Type B0111- was displayed this week as the CNY1m depreciated ‘-‘ slightly in its orderly peg with the Dollar. Paper Precious metals were upbeat for the week instituting the rising B stamp however Gold ‘0’ declined to join the rise and staged its own decline. Oil of course benefitted as did the US Stock Market but with that being said we still saw Silver ‘1’, Palladium ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ paper spots rising for the week. In Pound Sterling terms Type B0111+ was observed which followed as above with paper precious metals but with a slight appreciation of the Pound against the Dollar ‘+’. No Pivots observed. Gold just led Silver in volumes due to ratio trading of Gold into Silver, Palladium and Platinum. The Dollar Index rose slightly to 94.711 for the week however the paper Gold to Silver ratio did not reflect an immediate movement but a somewhat delayed response to the past few weeks of falls as the G:S ratio fell quite massively towards Silver. A falling Dollar is Silver’s friend not Gold’s! FXCM however actually fell 21 ticks to 11853 from last week’s 11874 due to the strength of the Australian Dollar emphasising continued diversification of world currencies in a potentially ongoing global free float. Gold to Brent Crude fell to 28.6448. Gold to Palladium fell to 2.1817. Gold to Platinum fell to 1.2557. Palladium to Silver fell to 34.8730. Platinum to Silver fell to 60.5883. The Combined $INDGtS Agg fell to 170.792 hinting at continued Silver strength. The Physical Gold to Silver ratio reflected paper falling to 63.568. EGI expanded to 5.7640 (Discounting of Gold) whilst ESI contracted towards the consumer seller to 26.6433 and a reduced real premium. Zinc’s strong rise was partially equalled by Copper’s modest rise this week. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium were again unchanged and may well be showing end product derivative equilibrium balance, the goal of all derivatives with. The 7PM revealed a repeat of last week’s 331 (3up, 3par, 1down). The Current Au ratios are as follows; Au:Rh=1.6672, Au:Ir=2.3726 and Au:Ru=29.3745. The Chinese Gold Fix is due to begin on Tuesday. This would have an appreciation effect on the CNY1m boosting US and Russian economic growth, contrary to the standard geo-political observation. The ‘Tri-lateral’ observation views a Cartel of 3 (above) with no viable opposition globally.

General Commodities: Most interesting and expected. This week’s bloomers were; Crude Oil (Brent and WTI however the PPM effect weakened WTI’s gains), Coal, Copper, Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt. This week’s duds were; Uranium (Sharply down -9.122% this week with continued Fracking switching from Oil & Gas to Uranium extraction and supply. If in doubt see the patents and licence agreement details) and Natural Gas were the only two decliners. Steel did it again, no change for the 6^th week in a row. T-46 on that historical trend.

Currencies: It does go around and around like a ring of roses. We observe the un-noticed, un-mentioned Ruble again dominating as strongest currency of the watch this week. It’s been mighty for nearly 10 weeks now and no let-up in the last minute Friday night swings before close to the stronger side, 6 points yet again. Behind it was our Pound, Brent crude proved quite useful and contributed to a recovering Sterling for 5 points. Next strongest was the Dollar which sits mid-table in the more competitive weaker area 4 points. In the weakest half we next see the CNY1m closely shadowing the Dollar and collecting 3 points. The battle of most competitive yet weakest currencies were between the negative interest rate pace setters of the €uro and the Yen. In the end the €uro won and pushed the Japanese Yen into 5^th strongest for 2 points with the €uro weakest but most competitively positioned for the last point of the week. The Currency strength league for the 22^nd week of watching currently stands at 1^st Yen 89pts, 2^nd €uro 82pts, 3^rd Ruble 79pts, 4^th Dollar 76pts, 5^th CNY1m 74pts and finally in 6^th The Pound with 62pts (Notice once again Negative Interest rates sit 1^st and 2^nd strongest).

Government 10 Year Bonds: The Bond market saw quite a mixed display this week with demand this week mainly rising (Bond Price rise, Yield fall) in Brazil, Mexico, Japan (-0.1300%), India and China (2.947%). Meanwhile Bond demand fell (Bond Price fall, Yield rise) were observed in the USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.4057%), Holland, Hong Kong and Singapore. No real movement was seen.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s): A small contraction occurred this week by $9.971bn to $258.536bn while the 10 week rolling total reduced down by a further 3373 ticks to $2.93683 Trillion from $2.97056 Trillion by close. The upward trend has reversed into a downward trend still indicates potential market-wide corrections but perhaps less so now. The Ripples are more likely at the end of May, beginning of June but so far no sign of market jitters. The Bulls have the advantage over the Bears for now. This week should show a better indication of market well-being.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its strong recovery upwards adding an extra 96pts this week to reach 635 by close. It is now above breakeven for the industries around it and no longer an immediate concern as this level will likely be maintained at all costs for stability. Stock Markets were all stronger this week as the Japanese Nikkei and Topix reflected the improvingly weaker Yen for better competitiveness. A good week for Equities.

With No UK Money Supply figures this week conclude this by viewing Week 18 as a good week across the board. Gold was the exception but in general a fairly good week. Next strolls in Week 19 and in looking back to last year we observed the $:CNY1m of 6.1375 and a Type stamp of A+. Gold fell to $1179.32oz/CNY1m 7238.0765oz with Volume down to 25,526,686. Silver falling to $15.735oz/CNY1m 96.5736oz with Volume down to 28,263,672. Palladium falling to $770.15oz/CNY1m 4726.7956oz. Platinum falling to $1119.80oz/CNY1m 6872.7725oz. The Gold to Silver Ratio was 74.949 while the Dollar Index was 96.859. The Gold to Palladium ratio was 1.531 and the Gold to Platinum ratio was 1.053. This week we saw Gold touch $1262.775oz, Silver touch $16.372oz, Palladium touch $567.70oz and Platinum touch $1000.40oz. A Silver cross-over may occur this week as the 52 week moving average turns positive alongside its positive 520 week moving average. With the Chinese Gold Fix due to go online on Tuesday 19^th April we could well see improvements in Tri-lateral economies, a falling Dollar to CNY1m (Gold purchasing through CNY1m strength) managed by Federal Reserve rate rises to control depreciation inflation effects proving their patience correct and solidifying there patient stance. Oil slowly recovering but slowly transitioning away from the USA towards St Petersburg and an already proven Ruble to Oil strength relationship controlling Oil price rises with reducing NYMEX influence (Trade floor closure imminent) but boosting Profitability and corporate strength in the USA which is completing its move into Uranium supply. After that who knows, its conjecture but considered and logical. With that we wave goodbye to Weeky McWeekface 18 and await the structural reform promised by Week 19 and solidified by fizzy bottle sweets and a Hot Cappuccino. Until next week stay informed, stocked up on Ginger Biscuits and don’t forget to feed the fishes before bedtime.

shemyaza · April 19, 2016

The Silver Cross over occurred today with the 52wk and 520wk moving average now rising.

Day 1 = Shanghai CNY1m Gold = 257.97g / 8023.7699oz in Dollar value 1238.5228oz / 39.8194g

shemyaza · April 24, 2016

Week 19 came in and immediately saw after a 13 month delay it finally came to going online. The Shanghai Gold Exchange going live on the Tuesday 19^th April. Since 2004 this has been in the planning stage. We’ll watch the physical trade prices of Gold, Silver and Platinum as the Shanghai Physical Commodities Exchange progresses in the watch as I list the close values weekly in CNY1m/oz. In my opinion, no cartel exists, smackdowns and smackups are Plunge Protection Mechanism battery storage capital manipulation moves using spot paper metal markets to influence paper equity and paper oil markets for stability protection. All countries use manipulation to support national indices and measures and irrespective of political persuasion this is fact and those nations would easily justify that for national security reasons which over-ride free market mechanisms. To protect your nations wealth is a pretty strong argument. The cartel is a myth, PPM is its reality and likely required the Rothschilds and the City of London to set up shop in Shanghai over a decade ago withsystem testing, adjusting, tweaking since 2009 before open. History is an interesting eye opener if you look deep enough. Look for yourself. Anyway with that said, we enter the 71^st CNY1m review, renamed the 71.001^st as we now watch the Paper vs Physical markets in action. It’s Frame 1 of the snooker match of paper vs physical. Weeky McWeekface18 won the vote but came in too late to make week 18’s review.

$:CNY1m Type: D(0)111- was displayed this week as Gold found pivot almost immediately rising in CNY1m value but falling in Dollar value ‘(0)’ as the CNY1m depreciated slightly (-) against the dollar. Silver Palladium and Platinum rose this week ‘1’ as the ‘D’ stamp indicates a positive metal position. In Pound Sterling terms B0111+ was seen with Gold falling ‘0’ but Silver, Palladium and Platinum rising ‘1’ with an appreciating Pound ‘+’ earning the Positive Metal ‘B’ stamp. SGE saw B111- and I’ll be using a CNY1m:£ indicator on this to reflect the design of the system. This week the CNY1m depreciated against Sterling ‘-‘ and so we see Gold, Silver and Platinum ‘1’ rising in a positive ‘B’ market with a depreciation ‘-‘ indictator. Palladium isn’t yet shown on the SGE but will be included if added between Silver and Platinum. Data goes back to Dec 25^th 2015 for my purposes of comparison of the SGE to Paper markets so be prepared for odd stats, they are frequent. Silver blasted past Gold in Volumes this week due to ratio trading by PPM to counter the continued exit of private equity from the US markets pushing the dollar up as assets are sold into sideline dollars raising demand for dollars before selling elsewhere raising supply of dollars reducing dollar prices. Up and Down zig zag moves which are trend downwards in asset selling into currency switch waves (see August 24^th2015). The Dollar index rose therefore to 95.116 however Paper Gold to Silver fell massively from 76.081 to 72.703 towards Silver as the Barter Derivative Ratio trade gathers pace. This indicates further Dollar falls as it currently stands but as you’ll see later a Tri-lateral peg is forming which underpins a platform for the Dollar by those you’ll least expect. Dollar FXCM rose ever so slightly by 32 pips from 11853 to 11885 when the Australian Dollar is included showing only slight wider Dollar strength. Australia is represented in the SGE as well as Switzerland. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell further from 63.568 to 61.311 towards Silver. EGI saw expansion from 5.7640 to 5.8107 as weakening Gold saw an inverse move in the ESI which contracted from 26.6433 to 25.5102 indicating what would seem to be a demand pull effect and weakening supply. I suspect Silver Britannia demand has risen. The lower figure is better for the retail customer. The 1^st Week 19 SGE Ratio’s are; G:S 71.010, G:Pt 1.138 (Pt:G 0.879), Pt:S 62.393. Back to the paper markets, Gold to Brent fell to 27.3048. Gold to Palladium fell to 2.0525, Gold to Platinum fell to 1.2261, Palladium to Silver rose to 35.4215, Platinum to Silver fell to 59.2963. The combined $INDGtSagg fell to 167.819 again hinting at further Silver strength (also Pound Sterling strength) this is my Slugging percentage of Metal. Zinc and more so Copper rose this week. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium are in Derivative equilibrium and static with each other. The 7PM again shows 331 (3up, 3par, 1down). The current Au Gold ratios are; Au:Rh=1.6656, Au:Ir=2.3703, Au:Ru=29.3462. The Chinese Gold, Silver and Platinum Physical Fix began on Tuesday and will go down in history as we look back in later years on Tuesday 19^th April 2016. This in my opinion is the start of the Tri-Lateral era.

General Commodities: Commodities had a very good week this week with the only faller being Cobalt on the watch. The risers of the week were; Crude Oil (WTI beat Brent as PPM sold Gold paper into WTI Oil paper to try to prop up Equities, Brent was less strongly up, equities are seeing private exiting requiring concrete filling of the vacuum by the PPM). Coal, Uranium (Up 8% and strongly with energies), Natural Gas (Up over 10%), Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. Steel remained static for the 7^th week in a row and is now T-39 days and counting on that one.

Currencies: The Merry-Go-Round continued its spinning rotation of musical chairs as we saw the Pound Sterling as king of the currencies this week earning a full 6pts and pulling back some of the gap to 5^th place. The Dollar was second strongest earning 5pts, next a shadowing CNY1m to the Dollar nicely slipstreaming as a trio pelaton earning 4pts, behind it in the pelaton was the Ruble gaining competitiveness in the slipstream for 3pts, I expect to see those 3 rotating around each other. The battle for weakest again was between the two NIRP currencies of the €uro and Yen. The Yen won the competitiveness battle pushing the €uro into 5^th place and 2pts. The Yen finished weakest of all and most competitive and earned the remaining 1 point. It has suffered by being out in the storm for so long and strongest long term. Those two are rotating 5^th and 6^th at the moment. The currency strength league for the 23^rd week of watching currently stands at; 1^st Yen 90pts, 2^nd €uro 84pts, 3^rd Ruble 82pts, 4^th Dollar 81pts, 5^th CNY1m 78pts and 6^th Pound 68pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: All the watch Bonds saw falling Bond demand reducing prices and raising Yields this week. Items of note for figure watchers; Switzerland (-0.3053%), Japan (-0.1200%), China (2.962%). Hong Kong and Singapore saw no change in Bond Yields or Prices this week remaining steady.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo’s) FRRR: A small expansion occurred this week by $9.977bn to $268.513bn while the 10 week rolling total reduced further by 1386 ticks to $2.92297 Trillion from $2.93683 Trillion by close. The Downward trend continues. I am still looking towards the end of May for possible pre-emptive movements here but so far calmness is showing.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index continues its strong recovery into normal territory now adding an extra 53pts this week to stand at 688 by close. Stock markets were seemingly stronger this week showing positive gains in the Dow, Russell 2000, Nikkei Dow, Topix, Micex (nearing a 2000 top) and Hang Seng. However falls were seen in the Chinese Composite, FTSE100 and FTSE All-Share indexes but generally a seemingly good week for equities.

With no UK Money Supply information this week we wrap up the review as a good week for Commodities. The SGE Physical exchange is now open and from this week on we will keep an eye on how Physical affects the Paper. I won’t refer to last year as you can look back to last year’s week 20 which will be approaching next week. One observation is that Steel, Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium seem to be locked in perpetual stasis locks which hint at derivative adjustments into new equilibriums. Just to add, Money Supply valuations of Gold Parity move from March’s $976.7431oz to April’s $981.6268 and Silver’s Parity moves from March’s $15.1594 to April’s $15.2352 as we look next week at May’s parity outlook. The Silver cross-over occurred as you can see with rising 52wk and 520wk moving averages indicating a new wave cycle. So with that keep an eye on the snooker, keep another eye on the figures and above all, maintain a hot cup of tea at all times. Until then stay tuned for next week’s 72.002^nd CNY1m SGE review where statistics can un-hinge the imagination but where fact dislodges propaganda mis-direction.

shemyaza · April 26, 2016

On 04/03/2016 at 21:14, shemyaza said:

I never saw the discussions about Industrial demand being leveraged by financial demand. Access to industrial conduits of supply has never been talked about, yet many electrical goods producers are also tapped into the financial sector utilising that supply access. It's always disregarded as set and done. Mitsubishi Group might say otherwise......

Keep a very close eye, I did say.......

shemyaza · May 1, 2016

Week 20 arrives into a slowly accelerating asset rotation cycle as we begin the 72.002^nd review of the weekly statistics. We start by seeing the CNY1m (Chinese Yuan One Month Forward Inter-Bank Rate directly convertible into SDR’s) seeing Appreciation ‘+’ contributing to this week’s $:CNY1m Type Stamp of B+. Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum all rose in Dollar, Pound and CNY1m terms ‘B’ with the same $:£ Type Stamp B+ observed as Pound Sterling appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar. The SGE settled on Friday with the CNY1m depreciating against the Pound ‘-‘ providing a £:CNY1m B111- stamp for the second week in a row or as typically recognised, B-. Spot Volumes this week showed a growing gap in favour of Silver as the ratio trade continues from Gold into Silver paper, while the Fed PPM battery storage for equity stability filled up the Gold Duracell Bunny ready for the next equity wobble. The Dollar Index fell sharply to 93.018 revealing a sell of Dollars into Non-Dollar currencies combined with Dollar creation to sell into Gold paper in preparation. We will watch this closely. The paper Gold to Silver ratio fell slightly to 72.495 in Silver’s favour while the SGE physical Gold to Silver ratio fell to 70.140 again in Silver’s favour. Arbitrage has its inevitable way. The Dollar FXCM fell -142 pips to 11743 when including the Aussie Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate (My metal ratio slugging percentage) also fell strongly from 167.819 last week to 165.513 by Friday close indicating continued Silver strength. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell gently this week from 61.311 to 61.090 by Friday close once again in Silver’s favour. The Earned Gold Index (EGI) fell firmly this week from 5.8107 to 5.5933 in consumers favour as discounting continues in Gold whilst the Earned Silver Index (ESI) rose a tad slightly in retailers favour from 25.5102 to 25.5217 but displays continued demand strength and premium retention with supply availability. Just to be clear, the large difference is caused by VAT on Silver for physical coins which hurts the consumer who foots the bill. Net income is always taxed further by consumption tax, so spend less and pay less tax. Gold’s primary advantage over Silver is this in investment choice from a taxation reduction perspective. The 2^nd SGE Week 20 Ratios are; Gold to Silver 70.1397-, Gold to Platinum 1.1289- (Platinum to Gold 0.8858+), Platinum to Silver 62.1329-. Watch these closely they may well set our physical purchasing habits if Shanghai is the Physical benchmark setter in future. SGE stats for volume; Week 1 in Yuan (Trading in CNY1m), Au (T+D) 24,795,462,800, Ag (T+D) 46,383,844,752, Pt 9995 115,660,000. Week 2 in Yuan (Trading in CNY1m), Au (T+D) 29,679,063,140, Ag (T+D) 24,270,974,320, Pt 9995 39,940,000. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 20; Gold to Brent fell to 27.3016, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.0861, Gold to Platinum fell to 1.2031, Palladium to Silver fell to 34.7510, Platinum to Silver rose to 60.2568 and Brent to Silver ratio fell from 2.6627 to 2.6553. Zinc saw a higher rise than Copper in percentage terms this week. Finally Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium remained in Derivative equilibrium stasis unchanged so the 7PM this week changes to 430 (4up, 3par, 0down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.7469, Au:Ir=2.4860, Au:Ru=30.7793.

General Commodities: Commodities had a very good week this week only two decliners were observed, here were the risers; Crude Oil (WTI beat Brent as the PPM managed private equity exiting from Indices with replacement buying and utilised Oil paper buying to support Oil related stocks), Natural Gas, Copper (3^rd week in a row), Zinc (3^rd week in a row), Aluminium (3^rd week in a row) and Cobalt. Sadly Coal and Uranium fell this week. Steel remained static for the 8^th week in a row and is now T-32 days and counting on that historical trend.

Currencies: This week we saw the Japanese Yen power to un-rivalled strength as it claimed the full 6 points on offer as strongest currency of the watch. The Nikkei and Topix responded accordingly by dropping 5%. Next strongest was another NIRP currency the €uro which tucked itself in the slipstream of its negative interest rate counterpart for 5 points. Next strongest was the Pound which floated into the safety of mid-table and collected 4 points. The Tri-Lateral gang made up the remaining places with the next strongest being the Ruble collecting 3 points followed by the CNY1m just nudging ahead of last place for 2 points and for this week, weakest of the watch but most competitive was the Dollar collecting the remaining 1 point in the CNY1m slipstream. The currency strength league after 24 weeks of results is as follows; 1^st Yen 96pts, 2^nd €uro 89pts, 3^rd Ruble 85pts, 4^th Dollar 82pts, 5^th CNY1m 80pts and 6^th Pound 72pts. (Just to mention, Negative Interest Rate currencies occupy the top two places and have done for some time now.)

Government 10 Year Bonds: A mixed week was had in the world of Bonds as we look first at the Bond Price risers seeing Yield falls as follows; USA, Brazil, UK, India and China (2.946%). The Bond price fallers seeing Yields rise were; Germany, Switzerland (-0.2829%), Holland, Japan (-0.091%) and Hong Kong. Again no change was seen in two watch Bonds with Mexico and Singapore (2^nd week unchanged) remaining static.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A tiny decline was seen this week by $1.400bn to $267.113bn while the 10 week rolling total reduced further by 3164 ticks to $2.89133 Trillion from $2.92297 Trillion by close. The downward trend continues however ends to quarters have produced the largest jumps. The downward trend however in rolling terms does continue though.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index edged further ahead rising by 15pts to close the week at a more sturdy 703 by close. Stock Markets were all showing red this week as confidence starts to ebb away from investors. Notable was Japan which as mentioned above is now showing signs of extreme economic stress with the Yen unsustainably strong and underneath the breakeven 115.000 line which exporters would look too. If the $:Yen reaches 99.999 a domino effect may begin in the Financial Markets. Keep an eye on the Yen!

With no UK Money Supply figures due until next week, we wrap up the 72^nd CNY1m review seeing Commodities powering ahead, equities showing signs of the great turn or the Asset Rotation Cycle. The Dollar seeing unusual weakness, the Yen again seeing flight to safety status for those who see Comex Gold as fake and the real Silver cross confirmed as the 52 week and 520 week moving averages both showed continuation into an upward funnel towards $20.077oz. Gold has a great conjunction at $1199.98oz, Platinum has its own conjunction at $1412.56oz and Palladium sees $650oz. Derivatives dictate those massive conjunctions so if those prices create a 7PM equilibrium line then potentially pricing options would effectively end price fluctuations in Precious Metals and is currently seen in Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium. Question: Would you prefer static PM prices rising with Money Supply only or free market Derivative un-hindered PM fluctuating prices moving with demand and supply? That could be the question we may well be faced with. Until next week, enjoy the rest of the Bank Holiday weekend and tune in, same time next week, as we ask ‘Who’s on First?’ in the 73.003^rd CNY1m review.

shemyaza · May 6, 2016

Alberta Canada Interactive Minerals Map. (Uranium City is to the top right hand corner, Lake Athabasca)

http://ags-aer.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=cfb4ed4a8d7d43a9a5ff766fb8d0aee5

shemyaza · May 8, 2016

Week 21 walks in and declines begin to happen as we wander through the 73.003^rd review of the weekly statistics. We begin by looking at the CNY1m which depreciated ‘-‘ against the Dollar this week which contributed to the Type stamp of C111(1)- as we saw general declines ‘C’ in the Dollar ‘1’ and CNY1m valuations of the four Precious Metals however unlike Gold, Silver and Palladium which fell ‘1’ Platinum had a Pivot (1), falling against the Dollar ‘1’ but rising in CNY1m terms ‘0’ which brings the bracketed indicator. In Dollar, Pound Sterling terms we see a general rise ‘D’ in valuations with a depreciation ‘-‘ of the Pound against the Dollar which contributed to the type stamp D(1)00(1)- as Pivots (Dollar/Sterling) were seen in Gold and Platinum where Rises were seen in Pound valuations of Gold and Platinum whilst in Dollar terms they fell. We view from the Pound perspective in this stamp. The SGE valuations showed a B101+ Type as the metals showed general rises ‘B’ through Gold and Platinum ‘1’ with Silver the only decliner ‘0’ with the CNY1m appreciating against the Pound ‘+’. Spot Volumes showed rises in both Gold and Silver trades this week with the gap remaining steady. The Dollar Index rose by nearly 1% to 93.830 boosting Gold over Silver. See last week for the general background mechanism. The paper Gold to Silver ratio rose strongly in favour of Gold to 73.816. The SGE Physical Gold to Silver ratio rose to 72.334 also in Gold’s favour. Platinum has an upwards arbitrage position whist Gold has a downwards arbitrage position. Silver is upwards. The Dollar FXCM rose by 110 pips to 11853 this week. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell by 2.133 ticks to 167.646 which shows a reversal of strength from Silver towards Gold indicating further Dollar strength to come. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio also rose a notch to 61.263 in Golds favour. The EGI rose slightly for Gold to 5.6953 with no clear indicator for the week, Similarly the ESI also rose slightly to 26.0116 but I can’t see any clear signal on those two rises in real premiums just yet as the Pound had opposite effects on both. The 3^rd SGE week 21 ratios are; G to S 72.3341+, G to P 1.1311+ (P to G 0.8841-) and P to S 63.9504+. SGE stats for volume for Week 3 showed; Au (T+D)= 20,357,195,420. Ag (T+D)= 22,118,085,302. Pt9995=43,191,060. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 21; Gold to Brent rose to 28.4548, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.1266, Gold to Platinum fell to 1.1991, Palladium to Silver fell to 34.7108, Platinum to Silver rose to 61.5576 and Brent to Silver fell to 2.5942. Zinc and Copper fell with Copper seeing the larger percentage decline this week. Finally Iridium and Ruthenium (But not Rhodium which fell $15oz this week to $725oz) remained in Derivative equilibrium stasis unchanged so the 7PM this week changes to 025 (0up, 2par, 5down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.7760, Au:Ir=2.4761, Au:Ru=30.6567.

General Commodities: Commodities had a poor week this week as no risers were seen. With the exception of Cobalt which joined Steel remaining unchanged for the week. Crude Oil, Coal, Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium all fell. Steel remained unchanged for the 9^th week in a row and is now T-25 days and counting on that historical trend.

Currencies: It was worst to first for another currency this week as the Dollar powered its way to a strongest of all 6 points on the week. Next strongest and in the Dollars slipstream was the CNY1m which collected 5 points. A 3-way paper scissors stone battle was seen ending in a tie as the 4,3 and 2 point total of 9 points was shared equally between the €uro, Yen and Ruble each settling for 3^rd equal place and 3 points. This week’s final point was collected by the weak Pound which should power back in Week 22. The currency strength league after 25 weeks of results is as follows; 1^st Yen 99pts, 2^nd €uro 92pts, Tied 3^rd Ruble and Dollar 88pts, 5^th CNY1m 85pts and 6^th Pound 73pts. (Note: NIRP currencies remain the strongest currencies during the 25 week watch, next week we reach half a year of watching!)

Government 10 Year Bonds: A seemingly strong rise across the Bond market in demand was seen except for Hong Kong which saw declining demand, Bond prices fall and so yields rise. Rising Bond demand, Prices and thus falling yields were seen across; USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3437%), Holland, Japan (-0.1310%), China (2.930%), Singapore and India. Equity flight was running into Bonds very strongly this week.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A very small rise was seen this week by $9.682bn to $276.795bn while the 10 week rolling total reduced further by 988 ticks to $2.88145 Trillion from $2.89133 Trillion by close. No jump was seen at the end of the quarter indicating slow mechanical contraction is ongoing and tightening the markets going forward as the downward rolling trend is continuing downwards.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index after weeks of rises suddenly without warning fell sharply by 72pts to 631 which if duplicated again this week edges the industries around it to break-even, there may be trouble ahead! Stock Markets again saw falls across the board as the general contraction begins to take hold. Highlights were the US Russell 2000 broad index falling far more heavily than the more state intervention afflicted Dow Jones Industrial Average as the private flight couldn’t be hidden as easily from that index. The Hang Seng fell nearly -5% this week while the Nikkei Dow fell just over -3%. State intervention via the PPM can move markets down as well as up. Will we see this into June? Equities sold into Bonds this week. The Yen at 107.081 continues to punish the Nikkei Index.

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a sudden rise in M0 real inflation from 5.41743% to 6.79811% from May 2015 to April 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 1.73071% this equates to 100p being worth 81.3908p in 12 months or in M0 Inflation terms in 12 months 122.864p is required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a whopping 22.86407%. M0 seriously expanded this month. M1 Money Supply figures showed a reduction in M1 Real Inflation from 8.09747% to 7.55445% from April 2015 to March 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the Month on Month rate of 1.02383% this equates to 100p being worth 88.4940p in 12 months or in M1 Inflation terms 113.0020p is required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a slightly reduced but again very high inflation of 13.00195%. M1’s expansion continues to power ahead. Real Inflation rose in M0 terms and fell slightly in M1 terms this month. Money Supply however is showing massive tendencies for requiring a near term controlling contraction in Money Supply which normally brings with it very deep negativity in the markets.

In closing this week the 73.003^rd CNY1m review has been covered and nothing else of note was observed this week. However outside of the markets congratulation to Leicester City winning the Premier League Title. Sabermetrics finally works in football. Until next week, I’ll close there and also a quick congratulations to Mark Selby providing a Leicester double in Snooker last week. Prepare the Barbecue (nice weather this weekend) the beers and lager as we gather, this time next week for the 74.004^th CNY1m review.

Pipers · May 12, 2016

@shemyaza with the Balticdry dropping, could this be effected by a country for example China having stockpiled enough Copper and we see this with the copper price falling too?

shemyaza · May 15, 2016

I'll have the review of the week finished tomorrow as it takes a while to write it up, sunny weekends make it difficult so hope you all don't mind. If the BDI is reflecting storage costs of keeping over-supply of durable goods and oil (Inventory) from hitting the market and crushing prices than that could be why to try and control a protracted decline in all prices. Gold, Silver, Oil etc will fall but less than paper assets. Inventory over-supply causes CPI and RPI to be suppressed, if that causes fear of QE which would make negative interest rate bonds the least loss option with falling revenues. Thus stock values and dividends would decline and PM's and Energy would become the generally agreed private safe haven as 1999-2003 and 2007-2011. If the Gold Spot price rises it's not investors buying it (Dollar up, Gold Up on Friday all day, explain....) the Plunge Protection Team are using Paper Gold and Silver as a Battery into Paper Oil and Dow E-Mini Futures and S&P E-Mini Futures as both react to stronger/weaker oil more strongly until the market sees the mechanism forcing direct intervention into E-Mini's (PPT is buyer of last resort in a selling market since 1988). I think the BDI is showing a possible sign of Inventory storage of over-supply to keep the markets from being flooded with Goods and Oil. US Auto sales= To sell 1 car, a factory must deliver 1 car to a showroom, that is 1 car sale by definition. Consumer credit is falling, indicating debt repayment not extra debt for purchases. Debt repayment destroys money requiring greater Money Supply to replace lost money. If that is happening, it's 1927 again.

Just to add, maybe it's the only way they can get out of the Bond Maturity Disaster in 2018, seen how much is due for redemption in that year. Ouch. National Debt Defaults shifts cost to the General Public, that private debt will be where the cost is entrenched.

shemyaza · May 16, 2016

Week 22 stepped up to the plate and walked to first with base on ball as we venture into the 74.004^th review of the weekly statistics. Starting at the CNY1m we saw depreciation ‘-‘ against the Dollar which contributed to this week’s Type stamp of A- with A representing a fall in Dollar and CNY1m value in all four precious metals. In Pound terms, the Pound depreciated against the Dollar ‘-‘ which saw the same falls in precious metals and thus a Type stamp of A- here as well. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111- as all 3 physical precious metals saw falls ‘A’, ‘1’ and the CNY1m depreciated against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes showed a fall in Gold volumes and a rise in Silver volumes this week. The Dollar Index rose strongly again by 0.746 to 94.576 which strengthens Gold over Silver typically. I’ve seen nothing but fundamental ongoing use of the PPM. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise of 0.609 to 74.425 in Gold’s favour. The Dollar FXCM rose by 79 pips to 11932 strengthening when including the Australian Dollar into the basket. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose again seeing a rise of 1.355 ticks to 169.001 in favour of Gold strength but hinting at marginal upwards decline. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio also rose a bigger notch of 0.896 to 62.159 in Gold’s favour. EGI fell -0.1688 ticks to 5.5266 this week towards consumers whilst the ESI rose +0.4310 ticks to 26.4426 towards retail sellers. The 4^th SGE week 22 ratios are; G to S 73.0300+, G to P 1.1302- (P to G 0.8848+) and P to S 64.6175+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 22; Gold to Brent fell to 26.6065, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.1578, Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2160, Palladium to Silver fell to 34.4908, Platinum to Silver fell to 61.2066 and Brent to Silver rose to 2.7973. Zinc and Copper split into two camps with Zinc rising slightly and Copper falling firmly. Finally Iridium and Ruthenium (But not Rhodium which fell firmly by $50oz this week to $675oz) remained in Derivative equilibrium and so stasis unchanged meaning the 7PM this week is unchanged at 025 (0up, 2par, 5down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.8861+, Au:Ir=2.4483-, Au:Ru=30.3124. Paper Gold is Expensive this week SGE $1269.0665oz, Paper Silver is cheap this week SGE $17.38oz and Paper Platinum is very cheap this week as Shanghai values Physical Platinum at $1122.88oz a full $75oz more.

General Commodities: This week the risers were: Crude Oil (Brent Crude more strongly than WTI), Uranium, Natural Gas and Zinc. This week’s fallers were Coal (3^rd week in a row), Copper, Aluminium and Cobalt. Steel remained unchanged for the 10^th consecutive week and enters T-18 days in that historical trend.

Currencies: The Dollar held strongest as indicated by the $INDGtSAgg the past few weeks although change is in the air, collecting the maximum 6 points for the week. The Ruble was just behind in the Trilateral rotation as it continues to power ahead collecting 5 points. The Pound held mid-table safety as it was next strongest with 4 points. The CNY1m again holding mid-table safety collected 3 points as 4^th strongest. In the last two positions the €uro lost out in the battle of most competitive position of the week being 5^th strongest, collecting 2 points and finally the Yen, desperately trying to get out of the un-competitive storm battled to weakest of the week and the remaining 1 point. The currency strength league after 26 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 100pts, Tied 2^nd €uro and Dollar 94pts, 4^th Ruble 93pts, 5^th CNY1m 88pts and 6^th Pound 77pts. (Note: NIRP currencies remain the strongest currencies during the first half year or 26 weeks of watching, while the Dollar knocks on the door of 2^nd.)

Government 10 Year Bonds: A seemingly strong rise across the Bond market in demand was seen once again except for Japan (-0.1190%) and India which saw falling demand causing a fall in Bond Prices and a rise in yields. The risers of the week were; USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3533%), Holland, Hong Kong, China (2.928%) and Singapore. Equity flight continues whilst the gap is being filled by the PPM as Equity actually continues selling into Bonds.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A very small fall was seen this week by $-7.206bn to $269.589bn while the 10 week rolling total reduced further by 2183 ticks to $2.85962 Trillion from $2.88145 Trillion by close. A continued reduction is trending which slowly contracts money, however in a very slow and controlled manner.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index after weeks of rises is now in decline falling further -31pts to 600 which however is just above market break-even, there may still be trouble ahead! Stock Markets were mixed this week. Highlight of the week was the Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index has fallen for 3 consecutive weeks for a combined 2,287.75pts or -10.657% since the Week 19 close. Equities sold into Bonds this week. The Yen seeing weakness pushes competitiveness rising to 108.465 and a positive Nikkei and Topix.

With the Money Supply update for the month occurring last week we close this 74.004^th CNY1m Review in seeing a type of sideways position being held. I see the possibility of the end of the month or very early June seeing news worthy shifts but no crash is possible now as the markets are partially owned now by the PPM/Fed as holders of last resort. Elsewhere this is seen in Japan, China and Europe. If a crash happens, it is by the PPM/Fed and the Governments using their power and stock positions to initiate a news worthy chain reaction. Sorry to all the Crash/Collapse harbingers but you should watch the Gold Spot, Silver Spot and US30 Dow E-Mini’s on the 5 second ticker and those sadly tell you how rigged the markets are both upwards and downwards. What if Deutsche Bank are found guilty of rigging the market upwards? That by definition is what happened from 2006-2011 but we all choose to blinker ourselves safe in the reality of the fake story of the so-called cartel, again, why invest in a paper market knowing it will fall sharply into Dow E-Mini’s. The Charts are so blatantly in your face it’s sad. I see the SGE as the best value definition of Precious Metal. The safety of hedging against Money Supply on a long term basis. What your ounces buy today, will buy in 25 years time! On that controversial note, we await next week’s 75.005^th CNY1m Review and please view no opinion as lore not even mine, I am using 74 weeks of observation to see this through my own perspective. Get the Dr Pepper ready, the Rossi Ice Cream in the bowls (Southend if you didn’t know) and make sure to hold a thought for those teams relegated this week. I hope they make it through the next 3 years safely. Come back next week for more excitement, intrigue, adventure in the CNY1m Weekly Review.

KDave · May 18, 2016

Interesting that Rhodium is getting battered so much recently. The six month chart shows it approaching the price around which I thought was the long term bottom in precious metals. Perhaps Rhodium does not count so much as a precious metal but is a reflection instead of the general commodity gains we have seen recently - an indication that the bottom for industrial metals is not yet upon us perhaps, unrelated to the precious metal market which appears to have entered a bull market?

shemyaza · May 19, 2016

Finally, those that know speak of that which must not be mentioned....The Plunge Protection Mechanism, took long enough.

shemyaza · May 19, 2016

KDave, I'm glad you're noticing, there is so much to watch but the US Equity and US Futures Markets of which Commodity Paper is typically derivative laden is so blatantly manipulated to hide what is happening that I don't see a magical Precious Metal rush happening for years. In the Net Crash early 2000's look at Precious Metals, $250oz Gold flat for years and Silver $4oz flat for years, even oil, $15 a Barrel at best. 2008-09 was not the spike in Gold and Silver that is constantly dribbled at. it was in 2011 and I must add, was manipulated upwards to weaken the dollar in the situation of trying to avoid accusations of devaluation. Dollars created out of thin air, Buying Gold Future paper also created out of thin air on the Comex. (Dollar first falls with supply rising and then rises as Dollars sold into Assets reducing supply) using Gold futures as a Battery of support for the PPM as much as 25-30% of value. Gold futures sold via Silver Futures or directly into plunge target futures assets without affecting the Dollar using ratio algorythmic trading. US 30 E-Mini's and S&P Futures E-Mini's is shown in the video above today by the excellent site. When Private selling of Equities occurs Assets are sold and Dollars are bought raising demand for Dollars and thus the Dollar. In turn the PPM buys the exited futures and holds the price up. The graphs since July 2015 hint at greater and greater use of this mechanism. Buy Dollars = Demand Up/Supply Down Strength. Sell Dollars = Demand Down/Supply Up Weakness. When the Dollars are sold and buy other currencies that is when weakness is greatest. August 24th 2015, Dollars sold into Yen, the largest currency fluctuation. If Gold Spot value of $300-400oz is dumped into Dollars and US30 Futures in a huge Plunge Protection battle against a Capitulation re-valuation of Assets as per their legal responsibility then a massive Precious Metal deflation could occur. See the 2000-2005 Graphs of Stocks and Commodities after the Bail-Out of Long-Term Capital Management Incorporated in 1998 (They by the way, were owned by the creators who found the Holy Grail of the Markets, "How to Price Options" the entire system used their mathematics).

shemyaza · May 19, 2016

The cover of the Economist 2015, the Japanese Sumo wrestler holding the Battery next to the Chinese Panda. That is Paper Gold weighing down the Japanese, strong Gold means a weak Dollar means a strong Yen means Japanese Bankruptcies. My take on what that battery is. Rest of it is just a picture to distract and confuse. The S&P closed 2040.04 or 204.004 on the S&P spider graph in the video above. Just above that 204 level mentioned.

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