Privateer Series Mintages (P1-P7) [Unofficial]

[Junior]

Privateer Ultra High Relief Mintage Figures

                                                                                                                                                          

 

Round	Round Name	Mintage
P1	The Storm	70,344 rounds minted
P2	The Siren	61,640 rounds minted
P3	The Captain	66,839 rounds minted
P4	The Kraken	70,344 rounds minted
P5	The Plank	68,000* rounds minted
P6	The White Whale	25,000* rounds minted
P7	Davy Jones Locker	56,896 – 70,758** rounds minted

 

 

*estimated using sales data from retailers. Final mintage numbers have not officially been released.

**created using the ER (estimated range) approach which utilizes official data and estimated data.

The Davy Jones Locker “estimated range” (ER) using data from pre-existing mintage figures of rounds P1-P6.

 

Average mintage figure between P1-P4 (using confirmed final mintage numbers)

P1 –       70,344

P2 –       61,640

P3 –       66,839                                                   [A1]       269,167 ÷ 4 = 67,292 average

P4 –    + 70,344

             269,167

 

Average mintage figure between P1-P6 [using confirmed final mintage numbers (P1-P4) & estimated mintages (P5 + P6)]

 

P1 –       70,344

P2 –       61,640

P3 –       66,839

P4 –       70,344

P5 –       68,000*                                                [A2]       362,167 ÷ 6 = 60,361 average

P6 –    + 25,000*

             362,167

 

Average between [A1] & [A2] (this calculation will give us [A3], needed later on to give us an estimated range)

 

[A1] -     67,292

[A2] -  + 60,361                                                  [A3]       127,653 ÷ 2 = 63,827 average

            127,653

 

 

 

 

Difference between [A1] & [A2] (this calculation will give us [D], needed later on to give us an estimated range)

 

[A1] -     67,292

[A2] -    -60,361                                                  [D] = 6,931

   6,931

 

Estimated Range (ER)

 

[A3] + [D] = ER High

[A3] – [D] = ER Low

 

63,827 + 6,931 = 70,758 ER High

63,827 – 6,931 = 56,896 ER Low

 

Using the data above of both confirmed mintage numbers as well as data from partial mintage estimates, we arrive at a mintage range for the Davy Jones Locker Ultra High Relief 2 ounce coin. The range has an estimated high of 70,758 and an estimated low of 56,896. Why do we call this an estimated range instead of just an estimate? Since data is being used that already contains estimates, we need to assume there is already a margin of error contained within those estimates. By combining confirmed mintage numbers with estimated mintage numbers, we run the risk of increasing the overall error while creating a new estimate from this existing data. As such, any data created using real numbers and estimates results in a new category of data referred to as an estimate range. The final step in calculations such as these is to calculate a percent error. This will justify any data that was used (both experimental and theoretical). The closer a percent error calculation is to 0%, the more likely the data used is accurate for the calculations.

 

*Disclaimer* While an estimated range (ER) does provide a mathematical solution to creating data where data has been lost or not maintained, an ER should only be used as a guide and not taken as 100% factual/firm.

 

See below for percent error calculation using confirmed data P1 – P4 and estimate data P5 & P6 (referred to as [A2])

 

 

% Error = [A2 – A1] x 100

                         A1

 

                = [60,361 – 67,292] x 100

                                67,292

 

                = ~ 10.3%

 

If the % error is 10.3, then the data used for [A2] is 89.7% accurate.

 

See below for percent error calculation for estimated range for the Davy Jones Locker

 

% Error = [ER High – ER Low] x 100

                                A3

 

                = [70,758 – 56,896] x 100

                             63,827

 

                = ~ 21.7%

 

If the % error is 21.7, then the calculation of the estimated range is 78.3% accurate.