r1lee

21 hours ago, dga00 said:

I do not understand why people are making fun of a man's opinion.
This thread was started in March, when gold price took a small dive. And maybe, under "normal" economical circumstances, the price would have gone even lower for a short while.
But let's remember what happened in the mean time:
- PPP(payroll protection program)
- stimulus checks
- eviction moratoriums
- unemployment benefits
The FED alone expanded their balance sheet by 3 trillion dollars. Not to mention other central banks.

All that new, cheap money had to go somewhere. And some "assets" went up in value, some didn't. It could have been, gold, silver, pharma stocks, technology stocks, real estate or any other class of asset. There is a chart on the FED site that shows a dramatic increase in home "ownership" in the US in the last few months. And I use quotes because if you took a loan to buy a house, you don't actually own it, in the full sense of the word.

Wonger may be proven right, after all. Because, let's not forget what gives value to gold. It's people's thrust that it will hold it's purchasing power, even after some major economic changes. And why should it? Can it feed the masses, or even a small group of people? Can it cure diseases? NO.
When push comes to shove, the majority of population will choose to live in a (fiat-driven) socialistic environment, even a communist one, where there is a sense of equality, over any other kind of regime, where previous PM savers have a (big) head start. So gold will have little value, at least for the first few decades of the new regime, and it will only be accessible to only a few people in the higher ranks. Not to mention the risk of confiscation.
Also, I hear a lot of PM stackers on Youtube that they will be able to use their coins/bars to barter essentials like water or food. In a near Mad Max scenario, you won't be able to do so because either it has already been stolen from you, or your "precious" metals will worth far less in the eyes of those who will be able to produce/procure goods.

Just because it's rare, does not mean it's valuable. And the perfect example for this is gold's neighbor on the periodic table, platinum. Platinum is over 10 times more rare than gold, and for the first decade of this millennium, it was slightly more expensive than gold. But when it's real life (industrial/auto) application switched to other metals, it's price started lagging.

So let's not make fun of a person for having an opinion and/or sticking to it. We may all be right, or we may all be wrong. Only time(s) will tell.

I admire wonger in his conviction of his trade. Like I mention previously that gold $400 is quite possible, since anything is really possible, Bitcoin is at $11k. 

Imo, Gold was money a long time ago, it will never be money again. It's an asset class that is traded just like any other asset class.  Back to the point, gold has been regulated to be used as way to store wealth or hedge against inflation.  Now that is where wonger I believe went wrong. He was expecting a deflationary period in which would have sent the value gold down (assumption).  

There is no possible way we are going to see any deflationary period, even if covid19 did not hit. The US administration rhetoric on Chy-Na and thoughts of bringing home jobs might send the USD higher, but who in their right mind would think that would be deflationary. I can't wait to spend $4000 on an iPhone when an American is putting it together. I'll stop it at that, as there are many reasons why gold is not at $400 and is close to $2000.  That's another thread altogether.

Everything you have stated can be reversed on the USD. Can you eat the USD?  Can it by itself cure cancer? You are missing the point. Like I mention above, gold is a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation. How many Zimbabwean's and Venezuelan's would be better off holding onto PM's as a portion of their wealth vs their currency?  If they had PM's they would be able to trade it for some other form of fiat that people would accept or leave the country altogether and start somewhere else.  Their value of their FIAT literally went to $0 and from history, it tells you all FIAT eventually goes to $0.  For many of us who stack, that's what we believe in. One day the USD will collapse and a new currency will take its place and  at that point I would trade in my stacks for the new FIAT or whatever decides to take it place as a form of currency.  

Gold/silver  will provide you with the ability to make sure what your bought  yesterday, you can still buy tomorrow. Just like property and other inflationary hedges. Whereas you may need to pay $20 USD for a loaf of bread. The reason why the USD has been able to hold on for so long is that it's the world reserve and at one point it was backed by Gold.  $1usd 100 years ago could buy you what vs the same $1 today?  Oz of gold yrs ago could get you what today?  

If wonger would have been right, he would be gloating and you wouldn't see him stop.  So not surprised people have been making fun of him.  Especially since it would have been easier 3 months ago to say the trade was wrong.  We are at $2000 gold here with inflation about to kick in hard. Yet he still thinks $400 gold is possible.  Maybe so, time will tell. 

30 minutes ago, sixgun said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/us-mint-has-reduced-silver-gold-coin-supplies-to-purchasers/ar-BB17g2Wy
U.S. Mint Has Reduced Silver, Gold Coin Supplies to Purchasers

Allegedly due to the coronavirus - please stop the fake news. 
Gold is crashing - silver is plunging - didn't they interview the Wonger - it appears not.

You have to flip the chart upside down, then it's crashing hard.

2 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Unfortunately  oil has never been historically money. Oil will decline and the petrodollar won't exist. Why do you think majority of oil providers for energy are looking at greener alternatives. There many corporations that are looking for something different. Silver and gold will exist but the former will be eaten up by industry and will be a. Harder to mine and b. Become rarer. Yes they will go up and down but because they are finite, they still last the test of time. And historically that's been proven.

I never said oil was money. All I basically said was that it can happen to any class of assets. I would have graciously accepted physical oil at $-40 if it was the size and weight of an ounce of metal. Because it isn't, it is limited in its ability to used as a store of wealth.  Hence one of the reason there was a storage issue.  If you were able to physical store oil at $-40 you would be making a killing now at $40. I'm not trying to argue the fact that I'm for gold at $400. Im just saying there's always a possibility that it happens. Just like there's a possibility that yellow stone blows within the next year or something along those lines. I will admit I think there is a better chance that gold could see $400 before yellow stone blows.

Gold and silver have both been manipulated so much, this can go on forever and I won't be surprised that this time will not be different. Cause it's always different this time.

I love my metals and I will never part with it, until I see a replacement currency in place of the current USD.    

On 24/07/2020 at 04:06, mr-dead said:

How much physical gold do you think will be available @ $400 when it costs around $1k to produce?

and before you quote the recent oil price crash as a comparison lets not forget that was due to a physical storage issue which gold does not have.

Apologize I didn't respond. I wouldn't quote the recent oil crash, but it's very similar. We are not looking a physical storage crisis cause no one in their right minds would store a barrel of oil at home and the value of oil vs space occupied is not realistic. But you got to look at the fact that if there is a crash and the markets get repriced down heavy (the monthly trendline), you would see the SP could potentially go down to the 400pt level. Who knows where gold and silver will be. All I can say is, the last time silver hit $50, could you ever think we would see $12 again?  Yet that's where we were just a few months ago.

Can I see that gold could hit $400, anything is possible to be honest. I love gold, I'm in my full physical position so I'd rather see it go to $10k USD. 

2 hours ago, Witcher said:

It does not seem feasible.  It would require a lot of unnatural things to occur.  Unnatural because inflation typically devalues a currency, but in this case, it would do the direct opposite. 
Instead of the dollar, which is the unit being measured, being decreased and having gold be closer to $8000/oz, Wonger is saying it will be $400/oz.  

Okay, it's no secret that globalist and their ilk want a major reset.  They know their fiat garbage is garbage and their systems don't work, but they are hellbent on control. 
So if they propose a trade of $1 for $0.25 digital dollar, that's the only way I can see it reaching $400.  That would void any proposed bet.

Besides that, I don't see it naturally dipping under $1000/oz. 

This is why in the other thread, i state that "this time is different" haha. I can't fathom $400 GOLD, especially with the devaluation of the USD, it makes no sense. But i'm not inclined to think that its not possible.  If we have a massive market crash, one so violent that it would make the dot.com and financial crash look like silly, then anything is possible.  This world is running on debt, and if those debts are called, there might be a scramble to liquidate any assets as possible.  What we have learnt from history is that Cash is King during this time, what happens thereafter is a different story.  If gold was $400, people would probably be kicked out of their homes for not being able to pay.

I think a great reset is probably likely to happen with Gold being re-evaluated per ounce to the new currency.

7 hours ago, Wonger said:

m not long equities to hedge Short Gold futures, Ive been long equities via S&P 500 futures with a target that is very close, its so close 90% of the long position is now closed, were looking to Short equities right here, Gold and equities will soon collapse, sorry guys, but thats always been my view, were going into the abyss and as much as I like the shiny, its going to be taken down with everything else!  

Coming crash will take all asset classes down with it as people run to liquidity. But $400 gold, I can see it but SP would also be hovering around that level to. 

some people are just early on a trade. 

New to this forum, don't consider myself a true stacker, as i bought most of all my  holdings in 2016 @$1235 and $15 as a hedge against inflation (so far its paid very well especially with the increase in the USD/CAD ratio during the same period (I'm canadian).  I've been trading and investing for 24yrs now, mostly trading over the last 5.  Going through some of this thread, i do have a question for Wonger.   He does have a good point that once a trade is lopsided, then it usually goes the other way. But some of the figures are downright crazy and i can only see that if we have a reset/replace of the USD, ok back to the question.  Honest and true question and if anyone else feels the need to respond, please feel free. I'm always trying to learn this market, as its always done something totally wacky. 

Wonger, you state that deflation will happen and therefore the price of metals would plummet.  That would mean FED would need to say the least, destroy the amount of FIAT flowing through the system.  But yet, you are long the index's to hedge against your metals short. If the money supply is reduced, the assumption is that everything in/that has value drops since it costs less to buy stuff.  If the cost of goods drop, then quarterly earnings for most of these companies will be reduced.  You can't have a  deflation with the markets also not deflating with it.  Obviously the markets are not representing the real economy at this point, well since the FED pumping began.  In most cases, deflationary periods do not actually take the markets down with it, as long as the deflationary percentage is beyond the +/- 2% the FED always seems to look for.