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r1lee

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    Stacker

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  1. Ounce to ounce is: 1:4 (gold:silver).
  2. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    I admire wonger in his conviction of his trade. Like I mention previously that gold $400 is quite possible, since anything is really possible, Bitcoin is at $11k. Imo, Gold was money a long time ago, it will never be money again. It's an asset class that is traded just like any other asset class. Back to the point, gold has been regulated to be used as way to store wealth or hedge against inflation. Now that is where wonger I believe went wrong. He was expecting a deflationary period in which would have sent the value gold down (assumption). There is no possible way we are going to see any deflationary period, even if covid19 did not hit. The US administration rhetoric on Chy-Na and thoughts of bringing home jobs might send the USD higher, but who in their right mind would think that would be deflationary. I can't wait to spend $4000 on an iPhone when an American is putting it together. I'll stop it at that, as there are many reasons why gold is not at $400 and is close to $2000. That's another thread altogether. Everything you have stated can be reversed on the USD. Can you eat the USD? Can it by itself cure cancer? You are missing the point. Like I mention above, gold is a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation. How many Zimbabwean's and Venezuelan's would be better off holding onto PM's as a portion of their wealth vs their currency? If they had PM's they would be able to trade it for some other form of fiat that people would accept or leave the country altogether and start somewhere else. Their value of their FIAT literally went to $0 and from history, it tells you all FIAT eventually goes to $0. For many of us who stack, that's what we believe in. One day the USD will collapse and a new currency will take its place and at that point I would trade in my stacks for the new FIAT or whatever decides to take it place as a form of currency. Gold/silver will provide you with the ability to make sure what your bought yesterday, you can still buy tomorrow. Just like property and other inflationary hedges. Whereas you may need to pay $20 USD for a loaf of bread. The reason why the USD has been able to hold on for so long is that it's the world reserve and at one point it was backed by Gold. $1usd 100 years ago could buy you what vs the same $1 today? Oz of gold yrs ago could get you what today? If wonger would have been right, he would be gloating and you wouldn't see him stop. So not surprised people have been making fun of him. Especially since it would have been easier 3 months ago to say the trade was wrong. We are at $2000 gold here with inflation about to kick in hard. Yet he still thinks $400 gold is possible. Maybe so, time will tell.
  3. r1lee

    Sold all my Gold

    Even though I gave you props and guts to sell just before double top. I find it disingenous for you to now harp about seeing $500 gold. I'm not sure if you made a mistake or not, it could still be a great move, but trying to get others to follow by throwing a ridiculous low ball number is just messed up.
  4. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    You have to flip the chart upside down, then it's crashing hard.
  5. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    I never said oil was money. All I basically said was that it can happen to any class of assets. I would have graciously accepted physical oil at $-40 if it was the size and weight of an ounce of metal. Because it isn't, it is limited in its ability to used as a store of wealth. Hence one of the reason there was a storage issue. If you were able to physical store oil at $-40 you would be making a killing now at $40. I'm not trying to argue the fact that I'm for gold at $400. Im just saying there's always a possibility that it happens. Just like there's a possibility that yellow stone blows within the next year or something along those lines. I will admit I think there is a better chance that gold could see $400 before yellow stone blows. Gold and silver have both been manipulated so much, this can go on forever and I won't be surprised that this time will not be different. Cause it's always different this time. I love my metals and I will never part with it, until I see a replacement currency in place of the current USD.
  6. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    Apologize I didn't respond. I wouldn't quote the recent oil crash, but it's very similar. We are not looking a physical storage crisis cause no one in their right minds would store a barrel of oil at home and the value of oil vs space occupied is not realistic. But you got to look at the fact that if there is a crash and the markets get repriced down heavy (the monthly trendline), you would see the SP could potentially go down to the 400pt level. Who knows where gold and silver will be. All I can say is, the last time silver hit $50, could you ever think we would see $12 again? Yet that's where we were just a few months ago. Can I see that gold could hit $400, anything is possible to be honest. I love gold, I'm in my full physical position so I'd rather see it go to $10k USD.
  7. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    This is why in the other thread, i state that "this time is different" haha. I can't fathom $400 GOLD, especially with the devaluation of the USD, it makes no sense. But i'm not inclined to think that its not possible. If we have a massive market crash, one so violent that it would make the dot.com and financial crash look like silly, then anything is possible. This world is running on debt, and if those debts are called, there might be a scramble to liquidate any assets as possible. What we have learnt from history is that Cash is King during this time, what happens thereafter is a different story. If gold was $400, people would probably be kicked out of their homes for not being able to pay. I think a great reset is probably likely to happen with Gold being re-evaluated per ounce to the new currency.
  8. r1lee

    Sold all my Gold

    this is what is keeping gold prices suppressed. Just like the stock market is forward looking, the gold futures market is also forward looking on when we can grab this and mine it. https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-headed-towards-giant-golden-asteroid-that-could-make-everyone-on-earth-a-billionaire
  9. r1lee

    Sold all my Gold

    it's the initial fear of selling your assets to cover debt or margin calls. So therefore the USD becomes a safe haven, temporarily <-- not sure how long. But this is a typical scenario in all previous crashes, even going back to Black Monday.
  10. r1lee

    Sold all my Gold

    I sit here and wonder the same, if I should sell at least half of my stack. Silver had hit $50 both times and sank and each time it was always "this time is different". I think it's a real smart move, I just don't have the guts cause I think it's different this time.
  11. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    Coming crash will take all asset classes down with it as people run to liquidity. But $400 gold, I can see it but SP would also be hovering around that level to.
  12. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    some people are just early on a trade.
  13. r1lee

    The coming Gold crash

    New to this forum, don't consider myself a true stacker, as i bought most of all my holdings in 2016 @$1235 and $15 as a hedge against inflation (so far its paid very well especially with the increase in the USD/CAD ratio during the same period (I'm canadian). I've been trading and investing for 24yrs now, mostly trading over the last 5. Going through some of this thread, i do have a question for Wonger. He does have a good point that once a trade is lopsided, then it usually goes the other way. But some of the figures are downright crazy and i can only see that if we have a reset/replace of the USD, ok back to the question. Honest and true question and if anyone else feels the need to respond, please feel free. I'm always trying to learn this market, as its always done something totally wacky. Wonger, you state that deflation will happen and therefore the price of metals would plummet. That would mean FED would need to say the least, destroy the amount of FIAT flowing through the system. But yet, you are long the index's to hedge against your metals short. If the money supply is reduced, the assumption is that everything in/that has value drops since it costs less to buy stuff. If the cost of goods drop, then quarterly earnings for most of these companies will be reduced. You can't have a deflation with the markets also not deflating with it. Obviously the markets are not representing the real economy at this point, well since the FED pumping began. In most cases, deflationary periods do not actually take the markets down with it, as long as the deflationary percentage is beyond the +/- 2% the FED always seems to look for.
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