Semi-numismatic coins - how do you decide what to buy?

[Blacksmith876]

Hello Silverforum, I've been stacking/collecting for less than a year now (mostly silver Britannia coins, bars and a variety of silver 1 oz coins for fun.

I recently picked up some fractional silver as its less common in the UK but what I'm really interested in is semi-numismatic silver coins.

Despite watching a lot of content about this subject online and searching online to find out more I have struggled to understand how to value coins.

I've been looking for low-mintage coins but many seem to be from obscure countries so I wanted to ask if there is a way to predict which ones will have the best re-sale. Be it through the designs aesthetic, popularity of the subject matter, or low mintage, are there any rules to follow?

For example will a government backed, low mintage coin (under 50K say) always be a good but at close to spot price or will some just have no re-sale due to obscurity of the nation? Or is it mostly based on how popular the design becomes over time which you can judge by the hype surrounding its release?

Any guidance would be greatly appreciated. I'm mostly stacking weight by buying bars, but I collect for fun and like the hobby if finding more rare coins but understanding their future value is very difficult and daunting when buying.

Thanks

[Petra]

Just buy what you like. If you see something, compare prices in different places, particularly on here. Fractional Britannia are probably best found in sets.

[Spyder]

1 hour ago, Blacksmith876 said:

Or is it mostly based on how popular the design becomes over time which you can judge by the hype surrounding its release

You hit the nail on the head right there. 

Low mintage means nothing if no one is interested in buying. It will then be sold for bullion weight as many sterling silver coins are.

[Paul]

2 hours ago, Blacksmith876 said:

Hello Silverforum, I've been stacking/collecting for less than a year now (mostly silver Britannia coins, bars and a variety of silver 1 oz coins for fun.

I recently picked up some fractional silver as its less common in the UK but what I'm really interested in is semi-numismatic silver coins.

Despite watching a lot of content about this subject online and searching online to find out more I have struggled to understand how to value coins.

I've been looking for low-mintage coins but many seem to be from obscure countries so I wanted to ask if there is a way to predict which ones will have the best re-sale. Be it through the designs aesthetic, popularity of the subject matter, or low mintage, are there any rules to follow?

For example will a government backed, low mintage coin (under 50K say) always be a good but at close to spot price or will some just have no re-sale due to obscurity of the nation? Or is it mostly based on how popular the design becomes over time which you can judge by the hype surrounding its release?

Any guidance would be greatly appreciated. I'm mostly stacking weight by buying bars, but I collect for fun and like the hobby if finding more rare coins but understanding their future value is very difficult and daunting when buying.

Thanks

If you just buy 'best value for money'  whenever you are buying you'll end up with an eclectic mix of anything and everything, over 5-10 years,  safe in the fact whatever you've bought will have been good value at the time.

Some will see you in profit, some you'll lose a few sheckles on.

The more you are 'in' the market the more you see what is in demand, sells fast, doesn't sell, doesn't get comments etc there's no guarantees, no always a winner 🏆🏆🏆 horse/coin. 

My own strategy now, is the opposite to my advice above for myself, and I'll only be buying 2-4 big, expensive, auction coins four figure coins a year now. But it's taken me now 16 years to get this far learning the market and be confident in what I'm doing

[Stuntman]

For semi-numismatic but still bullion coins, I would say that the following factors are relevant:

• Has it been produced by an established and ideally well-regarded mint?
• Is it part of a series?  If so, do you think that the subject-matter of the series will stand the test of time?
• Does it commemorate an occasion, or anniversary?  If so, do you think that the occasion/anniversary will stand the test of time?
• Is it a restrike or homage of an older coin design?  If so, do you like the design, and/or think others will do so?
• Does the coin have a nice design that you would be pleased to own?  If so, do you think it will stand the test of time, and will others like it?
• Does the coin have a limited mintage?  If so, how limited?  Most limited mintage bullion coins do not sell out very quickly, or even at all.

Best to treat them as slightly more expensive bullion, with any future upside being a bonus.

Personally I would buy any given coin if I liked its design enough and I could justify the cost.

[Stuntman]

Maybe a simpler version of the above would boil down to "does the coin have a dragon on it?" 😀

[Blacksmith876]

7 hours ago, Petra said:

Just buy what you like. If you see something, compare prices in different places, particularly on here. Fractional Britannia are probably best found in sets.

Are fractional Britannia classed as semi-numismatic though? I thought that this class was meant as coins with a more limited mintage where the value is based on scarcity as well as the value of the metal?

My main concern is buying coins that have an increased value beyond the metal or I'd just buy any generic round or coin. Are you saying that these coins value is based purely on the aesthetic appeal to everyone rather than rarity so I shouldn't worry so much about mintage?

Thanks for the reply.

[Blacksmith876]

5 hours ago, Paul said:

If you just buy 'best value for money'  whenever you are buying you'll end up with an eclectic mix of anything and everything, over 5-10 years,  safe in the fact whatever you've bought will have been good value at the time.

Some will see you in profit, some you'll lose a few sheckles on.

The more you are 'in' the market the more you see what is in demand, sells fast, doesn't sell, doesn't get comments etc there's no guarantees, no always a winner 🏆🏆🏆 horse/coin. 

My own strategy now, is the opposite to my advice above for myself, and I'll only be buying 2-4 big, expensive, auction coins four figure coins a year now. But it's taken me now 16 years to get this far learning the market and be confident in what I'm doing

Thanks, that's some really good advice. I am a history buff and have some ancient coins but just cheap things like Roman Denarii etc. I would love to eventually get to that level of collecting more rare items but my knowledge is a million miles away from being able to do that without immense risk. I think following your advice of buying with best value in mind is the way to go and then I can start to look at other things when I start to understand the market better. 

[Blacksmith876]

2 hours ago, Stuntman said:

For semi-numismatic but still bullion coins, I would say that the following factors are relevant:

• Has it been produced by an established and ideally well-regarded mint?
• Is it part of a series?  If so, do you think that the subject-matter of the series will stand the test of time?
• Does it commemorate an occasion, or anniversary?  If so, do you think that the occasion/anniversary will stand the test of time?
• Is it a restrike or homage of an older coin design?  If so, do you like the design, and/or think others will do so?
• Does the coin have a nice design that you would be pleased to own?  If so, do you think it will stand the test of time, and will others like it?
• Does the coin have a limited mintage?  If so, how limited?  Most limited mintage bullion coins do not sell out very quickly, or even at all.

Best to treat them as slightly more expensive bullion, with any future upside being a bonus.

Personally I would buy any given coin if I liked its design enough and I could justify the cost.

I really appreciate your response, that was very useful. I recently got some that I liked the look of which were limited to 10K - 50K but weren't expensive despite being rare compared with more expensive ones I had bought so I wasn't sure if that meant anything. I guess it does if the design is popular enough.

Personally I like historic designs and don't like pop-culture coins like x-men/Simpsons etc but have heard many people advocating to buy these due to a perception that they are in demand so will sell for additional profit.

The Queens beast series for example are nice coins but the inflated price makes it hard to work out if they will always demand a premium price or if in ten years they may only sell as bullion and therefore its best buying generic coins with the lowest premium.

[Stuntman]

I also prefer the historic or classical designs to the more pop-culture coins.  The good thing about this hobby is that there's something for everyone 🙂

Personally I think that the Queen's Beasts series will stand the test of time.  In my opinion the coins are very nicely designed and work well as a set.  I am less keen on the Tudor Beasts and will be selective with these.  Lions and Dragons will probably make the cut, the others probably won't 😄

I like some of the 10 oz silver coins very much, such as the 2018 Valiant and the QB Completer.  Regardless of future value, they were just items that I wanted to own.  1 oz silver coins in the same category include the 2018 Two Dragons coin and the Oriental Britannias (especially the 2018).

Gratuitous photo of my big silver pieces below.

Enjoy finding your own favourites!

 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

I'm no collector so I consider anything above Britannia bullion prices (currently around £25/coin) as semi-numismatic or numismatics 😂

My happy medium is Kookaburras and any series from Perth Mint/RAM really. I like the small premium above bullion items in the above post, QBs, lions, dragons, completers, etc. Then slightly more premium items from Scottsdale (Bible Series) and Germania are about as high as I go. I might occasionally buy things like this and I consider these premium:

Patriot release 1oz - United Kingdom (Ungraded) - The Silver Forum

Angel's Silver Brushed Satin Bar .999fs Hallmarked - United Kingdom (Ungraded) - The Silver Forum

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/76276-10-ozt-bar-thor-mjolnir/

You can definitely make money buying the right numismatic coin even in silver with huge premiums, 5 times spot or more. If you hang around the forum and see what sells at what prices and how quickly, you will get a feel for what is profitable. Of course what's profitable and what you enjoy may be very different. There's also a flipping/scalping racket going on with the Royal Mint especially in gold but silver too. You might be interested in that. Basically people wait in RM queues or use their AMs to secure limited mintage coins (e.g. Coronation stuff, Memorial Sovereigns) and then immediately flip them for huge profits as the people that really wanted them couldn't buy any due to the flippers/scalpers. If you buy a few and sell two of them you've essentially got your coins for free

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by HonestMoneyGoldSilver

[Pete]

In my early days of stacking I too thought collecting rarer coins, proofs etc all with a premium attached would be a good idea.
I was very pleased with most of my purchases at the time.

Years later I decided to get rid of these coins especially if they were boxed due to limited storage in safe places etc.
I was extremely disappointed in the prices I obtained and nothing like the premiums I imagined would be associated with some extremely low mintages.
I sold a lot of proof American Eagles, wishing I hadn't now seeing the prices, but you just don't know how some coins appreciate whilst others fall out of demand.
It is all about interest at the time and how long you are willing to wait to find a buyer.

My advice would be to stick to high quality coins that are slightly more expensive than regular bullion.
I just purchased the Perth Mint 2023 Swan which cost me £38 rather than say £24 for a bog-standard bullion coin.
That's the premium you may expect to pay for new issue limited issue quality coins.
Hopefully the premium remains embedded in the coin.

A good starting point is to look at Australian Perth Mint and Royal Australia Mint coins with limited - say 20,000 - issues.
They are a high quality coin, supplied in capsules and generally retain their premium.

As others say - buy what you like, but don't fall into the trap of believing a coin that you paid a small fortune for will sell at a profit in later years.
 

 

[arphethean]

On 21/05/2023 at 20:00, Blacksmith876 said:

Thanks, that's some really good advice. I am a history buff and have some ancient coins but just cheap things like Roman Denarii etc. I would love to eventually get to that level of collecting more rare items but my knowledge is a million miles away from being able to do that without immense risk. I think following your advice of buying with best value in mind is the way to go and then I can start to look at other things when I start to understand the market better. 

It sounds a little like you haven't made up your mind about whether you are a stacker (going for weight) collector (going for interest) or investor (going for profit).

Which is fine. You don't need to. But if you haven't made up your mind then do what you enjoy and don't spend too much without doing research. 

If you like Roman coins, buy a book or two, find out a few desirable ones that you'll enjoy owning and buy from reputable dealers only. Even if you spend a lot their prices are likely to be reasonable so you shouldn't get ripped off. 

Semi numismatics had their day in 2020/1 and were all the rage. Loads of new stackers were jumping in, buying anything and everything. Demand and prices have come back a little since the COL crisis and Royal Mints enthusiastic approach. 

What will happen in the future is anyone's guess but follow the excellent advice from Paul and Pete and you won't go far wrong. 

Edited May 27, 2023 by arphethean