I just give up trying to understand

[theman73]

how the silver market is working.

I'm a flipper, I make some money buying and selling silver but ffs I'm more confused like 1 year ago when I start this journey.

When silver is up nobody buying, when gold is up everybody buy it (now probably count their lose for the last two weeks)

It's simply make no sense how the PM are the same price like a few months ago or years with such inflation, how the price of PM's are going down when everybody know is a huge demand.

The waiting time to get your PM from the dealers is higher than never but somehow the PM price is going down.

What's going on?

I know the paper trading is manipulating the price of silver but gold is much bigger market is simply not so easy for them to push the gold price down but still...

I will do more research for some cold beers in my fridge...

Just to be clear, for me this up and down and Brexit is a blessing, but I don't understand how is possible.

Edited February 14, 2023 by theman73

[silvergaga]

I think most people in the PM field seem to buy when the price is going up. Some of us seem to know it's best to buy when the price is low or on offer. 

Gold/Silver ratio at 85 tells me to buy silver at the moment. Soon the ratio will be 30 and the gold price will be $3000, be patient my friend, you will have the last laugh.

[dikefalos]

I don't understand it either. Every time I buy silver, I motivate myself with the ancient Egyptians' gold/silver ratio of 1:3. All good things eventually come back.🤞

 

[theman73]

1 minute ago, dikefalos said:

I don't understand it either. Every time I buy silver, I motivate myself with the ancient Egyptians' gold/silver ratio of 1:3. All good things eventually come back.🤞

 

I have some cold beers for you, welcome to the team.

[silvergaga]

What about me I like Prosecco?

[dikefalos]

7 minutes ago, theman73 said:

I have some cold beers for you, welcome to the team.

After a few beers, we buy a few pounds of ugly coins, because we think they're beautiful and 70% premium doesn't scare us any more. In addition, we and our family have got used to lentils with vinegar and sugar.

[Zhorro]

12 minutes ago, silvergaga said:

...be patient my friend, you will have the last laugh.

[Fenlander1]

If the price is right I am still buying silver. Good investment if you can afford to hold.

[HillWalkerDundee]

24 minutes ago, silvergaga said:

What about me I like Prosecco?

Really? Fizzy urine? Might I suggest something like a Guiness? 🙂

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by HillWalkerDundee

[theman73]

7 minutes ago, Fenlander1 said:

If the price is right I am still buying silver. Good investment if you can afford to hold.

Hope I have this Saturday some silver coins

[James32]

https://youtu.be/vjD3EVC1-zU

[SidS]

Forum motto:

Buy high, sell low.

 

It never fails.

[HillWalkerDundee]

7 minutes ago, Fenlander1 said:

If the price is right I am still buying silver. Good investment if you can afford to hold.

I am still buying silver and bought a little more a couple of days ago from, as ever, TSF. I am beginning to look at gold but as an investment rather than a thing of beauty.

I don't know if anyone is interested but, First Majestic Silver have a 50c CAD off items purchased on Valentine's Day. Also, a further 50c CAD off if you are a shareholder with 100+ shares.

https://store.firstmajestic.com/collections/all

[HillWalkerDundee]

1 minute ago, SidS said:

Forum motto:

Buy high, sell low.

 

It never fails.

There are some gems to be had. I recently purchased 8 coins, all legal tender in the UK, face value £20 each, cost a good bit less.

I have not yet sold any of my silver, I am just adding to it thanks to TSF, I rarely go outside.

[silvergaga]

Me too, TSF have great bargains, most of the time. I am from Aberdeenshire and I do like Guiness too, but I prefer it in Ireland out of the tap.

[Solachesis]

19 minutes ago, SidS said:

Forum motto:

Buy high, sell low.

 

It never fails.

Can confirm

[Solachesis]

People will always try to get more bang for their buck too. When silver is falling, "I'll wait for it to go lower before I buy" Similarly, there is an essence of FOMO when the price is climbing "If I don't buy now, maybe It will be more expensive if I want some in 2 weeks, I don't want to miss the boat"

Making financial decisions based on emotions is something we would all agree is not wise, but it can be something we do regardless. Cost averaging is probably the best way to go about it, just buy regularly and it won't matter if you bought when it was high some weeks, as you likely bought when it was very low other weeks

[Pete]

Sadly none of us can predict the future prices of PMs.
Silver seems to lag and remain too low and I don't understand the reasons other than to speculate that the market is rigged by the big players.
We stackers don't really count in making a difference as we are not buying in the thousands of tonnes per order.

Platinum used to cost more than gold and I find it hard to understand why a once more expensive, possibly more useful and certainly rarer PM than gold is relatively inexpensive to gold. My mathematical genie points to gold being over-priced so do you buy gold, wait for the fall / realignment or miss the boat ?

Predicting gold price is about as scientific as predicting winning lottery numbers and it is always easy to pick a global event and link it back to a price change.
Gold went up because the USA downed a foreign spy balloon, no it is something Putin said, no it went down after the earthquake, it will rise because of the friction between China and Taiwan, it will rise as the coffee harvests failed, price of orange juice, missiles landing in Israel, sun spot activity .... take your pick and match it after the event - easy and mostly BS !! The computer algorithms of the big players buying and selling contracts according to the third derivative of spot triggers speculation. I think this also happens with crypto and as soon as something is seen to be rising, money and contracts pile in and for no other reason than greed then at some stage the bubble bursts. The conservation of money means for every winner there is a loser so do you bet red or black on the roulette table ?

[theman73]

13 minutes ago, Pete said:

Sadly none of us can predict the future prices of PMs.
Silver seems to lag and remain too low and I don't understand the reasons other than to speculate that the market is rigged by the big players.
We stackers don't really count in making a difference as we are not buying in the thousands of tonnes per order.

Platinum used to cost more than gold and I find it hard to understand why a once more expensive, possibly more useful and certainly rarer PM than gold is relatively inexpensive to gold. My mathematical genie points to gold being over-priced so do you buy gold, wait for the fall / realignment or miss the boat ?

Predicting gold price is about as scientific as predicting winning lottery numbers and it is always easy to pick a global event and link it back to a price change.
Gold went up because the USA downed a foreign spy balloon, no it is something Putin said, no it went down after the earthquake, it will rise because of the friction between China and Taiwan, it will rise as the coffee harvests failed, price of orange juice, missiles landing in Israel, sun spot activity .... take your pick and match it after the event - easy and mostly BS !! The computer algorithms of the big players buying and selling contracts according to the third derivative of spot triggers speculation. I think this also happens with crypto and as soon as something is seen to be rising, money and contracts pile in and for no other reason than greed then at some stage the bubble bursts. The conservation of money means for every winner there is a loser so do you bet red or black on the roulette table ?

 

Make sense

Thank you

[SidS]

Personally I think gold is overpriced and silver is underpriced. Only my opinion of course.

However with paper derivatives, it's impossible to know what a fair value is because people are taking bets on prices going up and down and then of course there is the manipulation. Basically, anything could happen. It's impossible to call it accurately because there are so many variables involved.

So my thoughts on it is; stop trying to read the gold and silver markets in isolation. Just take a look around at the wider economy and see where that's at. Then base your buying and selling on that. Also, never follow crowds. If it's crowded you're late and like Obama you're probably at the back of the queue.

[theman73]

38 minutes ago, SidS said:

Just take a look around at the wider economy and see where that's at.

Silver for me. The demand in the industries on the next years will be huge, not so much for gold (to expensive).

or

I also have around 12000 orders selling Lego

The average life span for a Lego set is 2 years, during this time you can buy them at discount, promotion...

After 2 years the set will retire (not all) and the price will slowly goes up. You can double your money in this way if you have the space to store.

Of course this is not apply for all sets, usually the one's with unique minifig are doing better.

This is not a financial advice, is a proven method tested by me during last 7 years.

The idea is, everything is make sense with Lego, the demand, the novelties, the rare or expensive sets, the price growth after not selling anymore in stores, but nothing of this is apply to PM market, nothing at all.

 

 

Just in case someone's thinks I'm talking bollocks

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by theman73

[LawrenceChard]

4 hours ago, dikefalos said:

I don't understand it either. Every time I buy silver, I motivate myself with the ancient Egyptians' gold/silver ratio of 1:3. All good things eventually come back.🤞

 

Do you mean 1:3 or do you mean 3:1?

That is G:S in both cases, comparing like for like!

😎

[SidS]

51 minutes ago, theman73 said:

The idea is, everything is make sense with Lego, the demand, the novelties, the rare or expensive sets, the price growth after not selling anymore in stores, but nothing of this is apply to PM market, nothing at all.

There's a good reason why PMs don't behave like Lego.

 

First

Lego, model cars, proper antique numismatic coins - all have a limited issue (some rare, some not).

Some get used, played with, broken, damaged, destroyed or melted down.

Not everything survives. The pool of what is left is what collectors have to choose from.

Their value comes from a combination of three key points:

RARITY / CONDITION / DEMAND

If you have all three covered you have something that will hold value.

You will have seen this at play with Lego.

 

Second

Modern commemoratives issued for collectors.

These, like Lego will have issue limits - however, the issue price of such material will be so high that their future market value may well be lower or at best struggle to maintain the original sales price.

Also - much like Royal memorabilia - how many actually get used and destroyed to reduce the pool of survivors?

Only 5000 issued - but how many of those 5000 will still be around in 20 or 30 years? Probably most of them, maybe all of them.

Not a good way to invest money.

 

Third

Generic PMs have all their value tied up in their scrap metal value. They will be melted down as required. Any additional 'premium' for what it originally was be it Maples/Brits etc. Will not be factored into the value as pure bullion. That premium will be lost.

The other issue with pure PM investment is that there are also paper markets that are loosely tied to them.

Derivatives are basically contracts that claim to hold silver and gold. A lot of the time, that metal however doesn't even exist.

When these are bought and sold they in turn affect the price of the metals which do exist.

To explain it in the context of Lego - imagine there was a 1000 issue limit of a certain Lego product and that all 1000 of these models were locked in a vault. Now imagine that 5000 ownership 'shares' certificates were issued and sold, giving each purchaser a claim on a model in the vault.

Unfortunately, as you can see, there are 5x as many ownership claims as there are actual models that exist.

Well that's how the PM markets work.

Now imagine I was an investor bank who could withdrawn and destroy these claim checks, or alternatively issue 100x as many.

The 'spot' price - based on the claim checks would rise or fall. However it may bear no relation to the price required to purchase the actual model itself - as these are rarer.

The value would be in holding the real model, not the claim check.

 

Finally 

The value of your Lego models is the complete model itself. What do you think the melt value for them would be?

I believe most PM investments that make money make it on something other than their melt value. Plenty of profits made on sovereigns (especially numismatic / rare ones), far fewer profits made on 9ct gold chains and Argos jewellery / or overpriced 'collector' specials which far exceed the bullion value.

[Roy]

5 hours ago, theman73 said:

I'm a flipper, I make some money buying and selling silver

The most honest member of TSF! 😆

[dikefalos]

26 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Do you mean 1:3 or do you mean 3:1?

That is G:S in both cases, comparing like for like!

😎

I'm more the realistic type of silver stacker, so gold1/silver3.🤣

To be honest, however you feel comfortable for an exchange in blackpool. I would also bring my silver to the UK in my luggage by myself. VAT on me. 🤣