Price prediction and monitoring of modern gold coins of Royal Mint

[foinikas]

So i think it will be a good idea to predict and monitor the prices of certain coins, to see how they fare in the future and help us all make better choices when buying new coins. I made a list of coins that i am interested in, please feel free to add more.

To keep everyone on the same page, all coin prices must be in £ and valued on a pf70 grade. Prices should be calculated at average prices sold on auctions 

below are latest prices the coins are selling for on 27/12/2021

2019 Gold Una & The Lion 2oz £59,000

2020 Gold Three Graces 2oz £17,500

2021 Gold Completer 1oz £4500

2022 Gold Gothic Crown Arms 2oz N/A

 

1989 1 sovereign £1900/ 5 sovereign £6500

2002 1 Sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2005 1 sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2012 1 sovereign £1400/ 5 sovereign £6,500

2016 1 sovereign £950 / 5 sovereign £4,500

2017 1 sovereign £1000 / 5 sovereign £5,500

2022 1 sovereign N/A

 

2014 Britannia 1oz £7,500

 

At what price would you be able to purchase each coin above in 2030?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2021 by foinikas

[BackyardBullion]

24 minutes ago, foinikas said:

2019 Gold Una & The Lion 2oz £75,000

 

I havent been keeping up recently, but is this a real price for the 2 oz Gold Una? Or did you put a 7 instead of another number!

[foinikas]

4 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

I havent been keeping up recently, but is this a real price for the 2 oz Gold Una? Or did you put a 7 instead of another number!

Nope, that is right. Last ebay sale was £90,000 but seller accepted lower offer of around £75,000. 

[BackyardBullion]

13 minutes ago, foinikas said:

Nope, that is right. Last ebay sale was £90,000 but seller accepted lower offer of around £75,000. 

 

Wow, really? That has got to be a fake sale? What about coin auctions?

[CollectForFun]

10 hours ago, BackyardBullion said:

 

Wow, really? That has got to be a fake sale? What about coin auctions?

I did not find recent auction sales of any graded ones, but ungraded was sold for £35,000 + 17% in December. 

London Coins link

Interesting quote from the coin description:

At the time of writing an example of this £200 2oz issue could be seen for sale on-line in excess of £80,000.

I think such coins with unproven real value won't be sold through auctions very often because there the seller loses any control over the coin so they are entirely at the mercy of the auction house and its starting price and whether the right buyer appears at that particular auction. Plus there's the commission. BTW 35k was the starting price.

Edited December 28, 2021 by CollectForFun

[Pete]

Crickey a gold Britannia for £7,500 !!
There were 225 issued in sets with the date 2014 and for comparison 435 for 1994 and 483 for 1996 ( see below )

I now need to sit down in a dark room !

In late July 2019 I sold the following FDC Britannia 1 oz proof coins ( all would definitely achieve a 70 grade ) for 98% spot for £1,113 each

 

 

[foinikas]

19 hours ago, BackyardBullion said:

 

Wow, really? That has got to be a fake sale? What about coin auctions?

 

9 hours ago, CollectForFun said:

I did not find recent auction sales of any graded ones, but ungraded was sold for £35,000 + 17% in December. 

London Coins link

Interesting quote from the coin description:

At the time of writing an example of this £200 2oz issue could be seen for sale on-line in excess of £80,000.

I think such coins with unproven real value won't be sold through auctions very often because there the seller loses any control over the coin so they are entirely at the mercy of the auction house and its starting price and whether the right buyer appears at that particular auction. Plus there's the commission. BTW 35k was the starting price.

This is the ebay sale i am reffering to, but i accept that it could be a fake sale.

Here is another earlier sale from coin cabinet, i think a year ago at £59,000.

i will edit my initial post with this price since we dont have proof of the exact amount.

Please add more coins you are interested in monitoring their prices here. I will be posting price changes every few months so we can monitor changes.

[Swampy]

Perhaps the 1989 Sov could/should be added?  

[harrygill111]

It'd be interesting to see how the Queens Beasts do now - presumably prices will vary with interest in the Tudor Beasts. There's alot of different sizes, maybe the 1oz'ers? 

[foinikas]

11 hours ago, Swampy said:

Perhaps the 1989 Sov could/should be added?  

added the 1989 sovereign and 5 sovereign

[Heirlooms]

Cool thread, followed. One that should be updated every so often. The Gothic Crown Arms is a 2021 coin (above says 2022). The Gothic Crown Victoria can be added now which is 2021 as well even though it was dispatched in 2022. Also think the 2oz gold Completer should be added. Only seen 1 at auction on heritage which went for $19,200 (image attached)

Edited April 18, 2022 by Heirlooms

[foinikas]

On 27/12/2021 at 23:40, foinikas said:

So i think it will be a good idea to predict and monitor the prices of certain coins, to see how they fare in the future and help us all make better choices when buying new coins. I made a list of coins that i am interested in, please feel free to add more.

To keep everyone on the same page, all coin prices must be in £ and valued on a pf70 grade. Prices should be calculated at average prices sold on auctions 

below are latest prices the coins are selling for on 27/12/2021

2019 Gold Una & The Lion 2oz £59,000

2020 Gold Three Graces 2oz £17,500

2021 Gold Completer 1oz £4500

2022 Gold Gothic Crown Arms 2oz N/A

 

1989 1 sovereign £1900/ 5 sovereign £6500

2002 1 Sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2005 1 sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2012 1 sovereign £1400/ 5 sovereign £6,500

2016 1 sovereign £950 / 5 sovereign £4,500

2017 1 sovereign £1000 / 5 sovereign £5,500

2022 1 sovereign N/A 

 

2014 Britannia 1oz £7,500

 

At what price would you be able to purchase each coin above in 2030?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi all, time for an update on coin prices!

Update April 19th 2022

There seems to be a downward trend the last few months on the prices achieved in auctions of the new modern coins sales, especially on silver coins. An exception is for the proof sovereigns which, not surprisingly, are doing very well on the auctions, ebay and facebook groups! For the rest of the modern coins, It seems that Royal Mint have been releasing too many coins and the collectors (and other buyers) have run out of steam and cash. Many flippers did not manage to sell the coins easily for a quick profit and panicked undercutting each other out and driving secondary prices down (this can be seen at the Gothic Crown silver portrait secondary prices selling at release prices). Many popular series like proof Britannias 2022 did not sell out on most coin denominations (with very high mintages that the RM in all their wisdom decided to have not helping) and the new promising “Monarch Series” latest release King James I  experienced a similar thing (The RM decided to partner with Heritage Auctions and give the 500/600 1oz proof gold coins in pf70 for exclusive sale, leaving only 100 coins for us mortals). Only the 1oz proof silver has sold out in a few minutes due to very low mintage of approximately 1250 coins. 
RM is extremely slow on new coin deliveries, sometimes taking over a month to send the coins out, however it seems that they have improved their quality control in the last few coins, at least to my experience.
At the moment, the covid situation seems to be fading away, although the inflation is at very high levels affecting prices of all goods. The war on Ukraine is also not helping the global economy and hopefully it will end soon and peace will prevail. People seem to be more reluctant to buy as all the above reasons are having everyone wanting to save some cash just in case things go worse.

Below the update in prices from recent sales and auctions. 
CC= Coin Cabinet Auctions,  HA= Heritage Auctions, Ebay= Fleebay 🤣

PF70 Sales: 
2019 Gold Una & The Lion 2oz £59,000 ➡️ No new sale

2020 Gold Three Graces 2oz £17,500➡️ £13,500 (source: CC= Coin Cabinet)

2021 Gold Completer 1oz £4500➡️ £4500 (ebay sold over £6000 but most sales in groups around £4500)

2021 Gold Gothic Crown Q.Arms 2oz➡️ £8500 (CC)

2021 Gold Gothic Crown Portrait 2oz➡️ *£8500 (only raw and pf69 sales of around £6500 achieved)

 

1989 1 sovereign £1900/ 5 sovereign £6500 ➡️  1SOV £2000/ 5SOV £7500

2002 1 Sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000 ➡️  1SOV £750/ 5SOV £3100

2005 1 sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000➡️  1SOV £750/ 5SOV £3100

2012 1 sovereign £1400/ 5 sovereign £6,500 ➡️  1SOV £1200/ 5SOV £6500

2016 1 sovereign £950 / 5 sovereign £4,500 ➡️  1SOV £850/ 5SOV £3300

2017 1 sovereign £1000 / 5 sovereign £5,500 ➡️  1SOV £1075/ 5SOV £5500

2022 1 sovereign N/A ➡️  1SOV £900 / 5SOV £5750

 

2014 Britannia 1oz £7,500➡️ No recorded sale

There were many good deals for buyers in the past couple of months auctions done by heritage and CC, as the prices achieved on most coins were below fair market value due to the reasons above but also some auctions were taking place in bad auction days (mothers day) where most of us where busy and could not bid on the coins we wanted.

What do you all think the market is moving from here onwards?

Would you like to monitor some key or popular silver proof coin prices as well? Please comment and let me know.

Thanks

[foinikas]

5 hours ago, Heirlooms said:

Cool thread, followed. One that should be updated every so often. The Gothic Crown Arms is a 2021 coin (above says 2022). The Gothic Crown Victoria can be added now which is 2021 as well even though it was dispatched in 2022. Also think the 2oz gold Completer should be added. Only seen 1 at auction on heritage which went for $19,200 (image attached)

This coin is on my bucket list! I will add it to the list, although it will be rarely seen for sale due to its rarity

 

[Heirlooms]

On 18/04/2022 at 23:19, foinikas said:

What do you all think the market is moving from here onwards?

Depends on your time horizons but long term if you have any of these coins you're laughing. In years to come they will be seen as the early 2oz gold coins and Special Reverse sovereigns. The 2014 Britannia and Completer are Jody Clark's greatest creations and original designs, not remasters from the past, they will stand the test of time.

I do think though that as time goes on, with more and more grading of new releases and the Royal Mint artificially inflating the number of graded coins in the market the prices of future coins may suffer which will in turn benefit the coins above

On 18/04/2022 at 23:26, foinikas said:

This coin is on my bucket list! I will add it to the list, although it will be rarely seen for sale due to its rarity

Yeah the 2oz is the holy grail. Won''t be as many sales as the others but definitely worth tracking to see how it does over time. Similar to the 2014 1oz Britannia

[RDHC]

27 minutes ago, Heirlooms said:

 

Yeah the 2oz is the holy grail. Won''t be as many sales as the others but definitely worth tracking to see how it does over time. Similar to the 2014 1oz Britannia

At the risk of a lot of flak, I have to say that I don't really see the aesthetic charms of the 2014 proof Britannia design, so I assume it was minted in very small numbers to deserve its top spot. Britannia looks a bit slouched or slovenly in her pose, her helmet seems to be too big and falling down over her eyes, and her 'derriere', which is none too petite anyway, looks unfortunately inflated by the disc, sun, or whatever that is right behind it. And the lion is o.k. but nothing special. I much prefer the Philip Nathan designs, though Jody Clark is undoubtedly a fine artist as can be seen in his Queen's Beasts and HM's fifth portrait. 

I'll get my tin hat.

[Heirlooms]

3 hours ago, RDHC said:

At the risk of a lot of flak, I have to say that I don't really see the aesthetic charms of the 2014 proof Britannia design, so I assume it was minted in very small numbers to deserve its top spot. Britannia looks a bit slouched or slovenly in her pose, her helmet seems to be too big and falling down over her eyes, and her 'derriere', which is none too petite anyway, looks unfortunately inflated by the disc, sun, or whatever that is right behind it. And the lion is o.k. but nothing special. I much prefer the Philip Nathan designs, though Jody Clark is undoubtedly a fine artist as can be seen in his Queen's Beasts and HM's fifth portrait. 

I'll get my tin hat.

WHAT??!! Get the pitchforks out 🤪

I'm most definitely with you regarding the Philip Nathan designs. They are my personal favourites, love them. In regards to the 2014 Britannia I definitely can appreciate its beauty and understand why its so loved. 1st and foremost the 999 gold gives it an edge over the Philip Nathan designs. The elegance of her pose together with the oversized helmet makes her look like a strong warrior while retaining her femininity. A lot of other Britannia designs have got this balance wrong with either too much masculinity or not fighting characteristics at all, especially the recent ones. The level of detail in the dress, the lions mane and the way you can see her figure through her outfit is pretty impressive. As for the inflated derriere, I guess it depends what you're into 😆. While the mintage numbers are low and adds to the desirability there are other Brits of a similar or lower mintage which haven't received the same level of love.

One thing's for sure, both Philip Nathan and Jody Clark are top artists, they'll be revered as the great engravers of modern times in years to come

[RDHC]

12 minutes ago, Heirlooms said:

WHAT??!! Get the pitchforks out 🤪

I'm most definitely with you regarding the Philip Nathan designs. They are my personal favourites, love them. In regards to the 2014 Britannia I definitely can appreciate its beauty and understand why its so loved. 1st and foremost the 999 gold gives it an edge over the Philip Nathan designs. The elegance of her pose together with the oversized helmet makes her look like a strong warrior while retaining her femininity. A lot of other Britannia designs have got this balance wrong with either too much masculinity or not fighting characteristics at all, especially the recent ones. The level of detail in the dress, the lions mane and the way you can see her figure through her outfit is pretty impressive. As for the inflated derriere, I guess it depends what you're into 😆. While the mintage numbers are low and adds to the desirability there are other Brits of a similar or lower mintage which haven't received the same level of love.

One thing's for sure, both Philip Nathan and Jody Clark are top artists, they'll be revered as the great engravers of modern times in years to come

A spirited defence. And we share a lot of common ground, I'm glad to note. Hope you find one of these - or perhaps you have one already.

[Heirlooms]

On 22/04/2022 at 21:53, RDHC said:

A spirited defence. And we share a lot of common ground, I'm glad to note. Hope you find one of these - or perhaps you have one already.

Yep, lucky enough to own the 2014 Brit. Also have the 97, 01, and 03 Brits. Just need the 05 now

[RDHC]

8 hours ago, Heirlooms said:

Yep, lucky enough to own the 2014 Brit. Also have the 97, 01, and 03 Brits. Just need the 05 now

Good for you. It is obviously a sound investment. Actually the 2005 is just about my favourite, but I know that I am somewhat unusual in my preference.

[LawrenceChard]

On 27/12/2021 at 21:40, foinikas said:

So i think it will be a good idea to predict and monitor the prices of certain coins, to see how they fare in the future and help us all make better choices when buying new coins. I made a list of coins that i am interested in, please feel free to add more.

To keep everyone on the same page, all coin prices must be in £ and valued on a pf70 grade. Prices should be calculated at average prices sold on auctions 

below are latest prices the coins are selling for on 27/12/2021

2019 Gold Una & The Lion 2oz £59,000

2020 Gold Three Graces 2oz £17,500

2021 Gold Completer 1oz £4500

2022 Gold Gothic Crown Arms 2oz N/A

1989 1 sovereign £1900/ 5 sovereign £6500

2002 1 Sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2005 1 sovereign £700/ 5 sovereign £3000

2012 1 sovereign £1400/ 5 sovereign £6,500

2016 1 sovereign £950 / 5 sovereign £4,500

2017 1 sovereign £1000 / 5 sovereign £5,500

2022 1 sovereign N/A

2014 Britannia 1oz £7,500

At what price would you be able to purchase each coin above in 2030?

 

I have only just noticed this topic / thread.

Apart from the obvious direct 12/18 questions asked, it raises a number of other questions or considerations:

What is the pound going to be worth in 2030?

... and what do you measure it against?, the US Dollar, gold, a basket of currencies?

...Will gold be worth £2000 by then?, or more?, £2500? these figures may sound optimistic, or even ridiculous, but it was not much over £700 back in 2015.

... The price of gold is relevant, because at present the pound is worth about 1/1500 ounces of gold; by 2030, it might only be worth 1/2500 ounces.

I can understand the need to standardise for meaningful comparison, but only considering PF70 coins is somewhat artificial. It tends to demote the aesthetic value of owning original "raw" coins, and reinforces the concept that only "slabbed" coins are worth considering. This serves to entrench the two main grading companies' stranglehold on the collector coin market. To my mind, this is not an entirely happy prospect.

 

Do TSF members, collectors, or stackers, only appreciate coins for their future investment value? If so, is this a good thing or bad? I have long advised collectors to buy what they like and enjoy, whether it is a coin or a glass of wine. I also try to advise investors, and that advice is usually to invest in gold bullion bought as close to intrinsic as reasonably possible. It is possible, within limits, to combine these two things.

 

Is it only new issue coins which are important, or collectable?

I would argue that real collectors can get more pleasure from ownng, for example, a "raw" 1887 London Mint, Jubilee sovereign, whatever grade, than by owning the most recent new release.

I could elaborate on much of the above, but would rather throw the points open for discussion.

😎

 

[Piperscoins]

51 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I have only just noticed this topic / thread.

Is it only new issue coins which are important, or collectable?

I would argue that real collectors can get more pleasure from ownng, for example, a "raw" 1887 London Mint, Jubilee sovereign, whatever grade, than by owning the most recent new release.

I could elaborate on much of the above, but would rather throw the points open for discussion.

😎

 

I agree with this. 

[LawrenceChard]

35 minutes ago, Piperscoins said:

I agree with this. 

You are not permitted to agree with it.

Arguing is mandatory.

Is this the right room?

😎

[HerefordBullyun]

32 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

 

Arguing is mandatory.

Is this the right room?

😎

No WWIII thread is! hence the title!

[Roy]

2 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

I would argue that real collectors can get more pleasure from ownng, for example, a "raw" 1887 London Mint, Jubilee sovereign, whatever grade, than by owning the most recent new release.

👍

[Stuntman]

My PM collection is almost exclusively bullion, with a small number of Brilliant Uncirculated coins.  I don't really buy with the intention of flipping, all my coins are ideally for long-term ownership.

I have steered clear of the proof issues of the last five years although if I had both very deep pockets and plenty of free time, I would have attempted to acquire a few of these issues (e.g. Una & The Lion, QB Completer) in proof.

Within the last 6 years or so, the Royal Mint has released the following coins in bullion that in my opinion are very collectable:

The three Oriental Border Britannias - in particular the 2018

Two Dragons

The entire Queens' Beasts series including the Completer - particularly in 1 kg silver for the Completer

The 2018 Valiant in 10 oz silver

The Gold Standard 1/4 oz gold

The Royal Arms

I'm delighted to own all of these designs (some of them in more than one size, metal or date) for relatively small premiums over spot.

And other non-proof collectables of recent times from the Royal Mint:

The Una & The Lion bullion bars and the 2017 five sovereign piece in BU.

I think all of these will do better than the average bullion coin or bar over the long term.