Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Goldfever20]

24 minutes ago, James32 said:

Yes girl, great response and smash up his house 😆  I'm all worked up here, let's goooooo.

To da moon!!!😂😂😂

Edited December 8, 2022 by Goldfever20

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

.
but fed announcements are so flipping damaging for the markets - Jerome powell only has to hint at tightening more than expected.  

 

.50 base points rise hes now at the point where he cannot return. Thats it. I will paint my ronson blue in burtons window, if thats the case other wise.

[timsk]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

. . . Im still learning so my analysis is not spot on but watching the pros on a daily basis they are 80-90% accurate everyday!
We shall see I shall come back to this early Jan.

But I know where your coming from & silver is a rubbish investment for performance LOL.  
Having said that I have a safe full of it - But I do think the macro is fabulous on it, just needs to break the manipulation. 

Stacktastic,

I'd be very wary if I were you about the "pros on a daily basis they are 80-90% accurate". To sound as if one knows what one's talking about when it comes to TA and impressing those who know less than you is quite straightforward. Using that analysis to trade the markets profitably is another matter entirely. There are any number who can talk the talk (the former), but very few who can walk the walk (the latter). 

Regarding all the hype around silver, I agree that for the most part that hype is exactly what it is. GoldDiggerDave (GDG) makes a lot of valid comments in this regard. Personally, I view silver more as a savings vehicle than as an investment vehicle. I know my £100 in a building society will only be worth £90 this time next year - maybe less. However, if I spend that £100 today on, say, four x 1 oz Britannia's then, whatever else happens, this time next year I'll still have four x 1 oz Britannia's! (Okay - they could get nicked or I forget where I've put them etc.) My only real risk is that if I have (note emphasis) to sell them, - leaving out P&P for the purposes of this illustration - I need to get a minimum of £25.00 each just to break even. If I don't have to sell them, I can sit on them until the price moves into profitable territory. In the meantime, if price drops lower, I can acquire more silver at cheaper prices, which further reduces my average buy in price. The point being, there's the potential for my savings via silver to rise over time, whereas, via a bank or building society my savings can - and will - dwindle away.

Back to the charts (sorry GDG, lol!), my view is that price is more likely to test the summer lows of circa £15.20 (red line on the chart below), before it leaves planet earth for the moon. And, like DGD, I doubt the latter will happen, although I am of the view price will move substantially to the upside in the fullness of time (years). The key fundamental drivers I watch are the $USD (DXY) and equity indices (FTSE 100 and Dow). There is much talk of the dollar crashing, which I think is distinctly possible, but it'll push higher first. If the market indices tank while the dollar surges higher, silver will plummet. (Check historical charts to see this correlation for yourself.) DGD might highlight all my 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and say this is all speculation. Or, to use the proper term - gambling. And he'd be right. My response to that is that life's a gamble and we all have to make choices based on what we think is right for our respective circumstances. For my wife, it's watching her money erode away in a building society. For me, it's stacking silver! Horses for courses.

Here's the chart . . .

Edited December 8, 2022 by timsk

[HerefordBullyun]

Silver is cyclic. But the fact is when it really goes higher its over period of years, when tends to really go parabolic. Like the 80s for example. It really rose then.  We are now in that 30/40 year period. That is my apparently flawed logic in holding silver. 

[katyc]

17 minutes ago, timsk said:

Stacktastic,

I'd be very wary if I were you about the "pros on a daily basis they are 80-90% accurate". To sound as if one knows what one's talking about when it comes to TA and impressing those who know less than you is quite straightforward. Using that analysis to trade the markets profitably is another matter entirely. There are any number who can talk the talk (the former), but very few who can walk the walk (the latter). 

Regarding all the hype around silver, I agree that for the most part that hype is exactly what it is. GoldDiggerDave (GDG) makes a lot of valid comments in this regard. Personally, I view silver more as a savings vehicle than as an investment vehicle. I know my £100 in a building society will only be worth £90 this time next year - maybe less. However, if I spend that £100 today on, say, four x 1 oz Britannia's then, whatever else happens, this time next year I'll still have four x 1 oz Britannia's! (Okay - they could get nicked or I forget where I've put them etc.) My only real risk is that if I have (note emphasis) to sell them, - leaving out P&P for the purposes of this illustration - I need to get a minimum of £25.00 each just to break even. If I don't have to sell them, I can sit on them until the price moves into profitable territory. In the meantime, if price drops lower, I can acquire more silver at cheaper prices, which further reduces my average buy in price. The point being, there's the potential for my savings via silver to rise over time, whereas, via a bank or building society my savings can - and will - dwindle away.

Back to the charts (sorry GDG, lol!), my view is that price is more likely to test the summer lows of circa £15.20 (red line on the chart below), before it leaves planet earth for the moon. And, like DGD, I doubt the latter will happen, although I am of the view price will move substantially to the upside in the fullness of time (years). The key fundamental drivers I watch are the $USD (DXY) and equity indices (FTSE 100 and Dow). There is much talk of the dollar crashing, which I think is distinctly possible, but it'll push higher first. If the market indices tank while the dollar surges higher, silver will plummet. (Check historical charts to see this correlation for yourself.) DGD might highlight all my 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and say this is all speculation. Or, to use the proper term - gambling. And he'd be right. My response to that is that life's a gamble and we all have to make choices based on what we think is right for our respective circumstances. For my wife, it's watching her money erode away in a building society. For me, it's stacking silver! Horses for courses.

Here's the chart . . .

I too think it's wise to a see silver as savings and not investment as the "tickling the moon's balls" moments are amazing, but not very often!

Although I do believe it's due because the world's reserve currency is doomed, I say, dooooooomed! 

(Same for gold really. Gains short term don't really happen. But as savings it's great)

[modofantasma]

£18.99 ......

[stefffana]

1 minute ago, modofantasma said:

£18.99 ......

Yep...

£0.488/g...

 

I am talking about my .800 silver spoons.😊

[modofantasma]

Just now, stefffana said:

I am talking about my .800 silver spoons.

But we know they are far more valuable than just that scrap value. 

[stefffana]

3 minutes ago, modofantasma said:

But we know they are far more valuable than just that scrap value. 

Of course they are... But they don't care about historical value...😓😓😓

[ArgentSmith]

Not cherry picking here but Silver currently outperforming Gold over the following time frames

1 month

3 months

6 months

1 Year

3 Years

5 Years

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/month/

[Stacktastic]

5 hours ago, Zeuk said:

I really wouldnt believe that pros are 80-90% accurate with technical analysis, that would be a licence to infinite resource.  

Yeah maybe, but the thing is its on probability so you can never really know and only an idiot would invest more than a fraction of thier portfolio.
The guy I follow is certainly at least 70% accurate & a lot of the time & often 80-100% - I rarely have seen him make a mistake. 
He invests 1% of his portfolio or less on most trades, so it really limits risk & also any massive returns swing trading. 

5 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

.50 base points rise hes now at the point where he cannot return. Thats it. 

If they turn around and make it .75 then all hell will break loose 😛 

5 hours ago, timsk said:

Stacktastic,

I'd be very wary if I were you about the "pros on a daily basis they are 80-90% accurate". To sound as if one knows what one's talking about when it comes to TA and impressing those who know less than you is quite straightforward. Using that analysis to trade the markets profitably is another matter entirely. There are any number who can talk the talk (the former), but very few who can walk the walk (the latter). 

Regarding all the hype around silver, I agree that for the most part that hype is exactly what it is. GoldDiggerDave (GDG) makes a lot of valid comments in this regard. Personally, I view silver more as a savings vehicle than as an investment vehicle. I know my £100 in a building society will only be worth £90 this time next year - maybe less. However, if I spend that £100 today on, say, four x 1 oz Britannia's then, whatever else happens, this time next year I'll still have four x 1 oz Britannia's! (Okay - they could get nicked or I forget where I've put them etc.) My only real risk is that if I have (note emphasis) to sell them, - leaving out P&P for the purposes of this illustration - I need to get a minimum of £25.00 each just to break even. If I don't have to sell them, I can sit on them until the price moves into profitable territory. In the meantime, if price drops lower, I can acquire more silver at cheaper prices, which further reduces my average buy in price. The point being, there's the potential for my savings via silver to rise over time, whereas, via a bank or building society my savings can - and will - dwindle away.

Back to the charts (sorry GDG, lol!), my view is that price is more likely to test the summer lows of circa £15.20

 

Hello.  

Yes totally agreed on impressing people and misleading them potentially - I shall be more careful as there are far more savvy people than me.|
Yeah maybe 80-90 was rather over the top, but I know someone that is usually right at those numbers rarely makes a bad call at all - so i was really referencing him. 

im still in training, but I am working hard on it & doing well I think. Easily 11-12% average looking at my totals on the wall. 
I have made over 150 trades this year and lost on about 3 (I think) 4 at most - so I am doing somehting right & most of that is with charting..  

Dont know if the second part is aimed at my comments, but yes I can easily see it getting back to below £16 again, maybe £16.50's? 
Cant wait as its going into SLV or Wheaton rather than physical with a possible angle to sell it
& transition a percentage into crypto & some beaten down sectors. 
On that note (for the chart haters) I managed to buy both of those dips & the 2 bottoms in October on the day's it hit an almost bottom..
I have only made about 5-6 purchases this year too & one was for 15kg silver so a lot was on the line & I trusted the charts over my emotions. 
Horses for courses but my opinion is its certainly an accurate tool & not somehting to be dismissed or ridiculed when done properly..  

Ultimately it should do well next year & it should hit major resistance at $22 next, but I do think it will get to $24 - no idea when.  
but as i have said and you a lot depends on the dollar, which I also said..  

Sorry if that was not clear. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Stacktastic

[timsk]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

. . . im still in training, but I am working hard on it & doing well I think. Easily 11-12% average looking at my totals on the wall. 
I have made over 150 trades this year and lost on about 3 (I think) 4 at most - so I am doing somehting right & most of that is with charting..  

Hi Stack',

I don't want to take the thread off-topic, but I couldn't let this pass without comment. I don't know how new you are to trading or how much you know (and don't know) - so apologies if I'm teaching grandma to suck eggs.

There are two key ratios for traders - these are:
A. The Success Ratio. Out of any given sample, what is the total number of winning trades relative to the total number of losing trades? This is called the success ratio or win:loss ratio.
B. The Profit Ratio. This is the average £’s won on winning trades, relative to the average £’s lost on losing trades. This is called the profit ratio and is sometimes referred to as the ‘Sharpe Ratio’, although this is technically incorrect.

If you've only had 3-4 losing trades out of 150, then your Success Ratio is excellent. Fantastic - well done! But that's only half the story and is largely meaningless without knowing your Profit Ratio. Why? Because if you win £1.00 on 99 trades but lose £100.00 on the hundredth trade - you're not a profitable trader, even though you have an amazing success ratio. My guess is that your profit ratio isn't so great. If the losses are capped at no more than X and you can maintain the very high success ratio - you may (note emphasis) have a profitable strategy. However, in my experience, it's almost always the case that a trader with a very high success ratio blows out sooner or later with one single, catastrophic losing trade. No prizes for guessing how I know that!

😉

Edited December 8, 2022 by timsk
typos

[Zeuk]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

im still in training, but I am working hard on it & doing well I think. Easily 11-12% average looking at my totals on the wall. 
I have made over 150 trades this year and lost on about 3 (I think) 4 at most - so I am doing somehting right & most of that is with charting..  

 

11 % is great, tbh just beating an index is good enough and if you can compound that whilst protecting yourself against a downswing you'll do well.  Its a long game, profitable strategies over results oriented tactics win, statistically big sample sizes will help you more - the majority of people that get into any sort of odds based game dont last long enough through downswings to know if their approach was successful.

To survive variance the generally accepted rule is dont risk anymore than 1% of your bankroll on any given trade, as an example I once lost over 20 bets in a row where I was statistically a 70% favourite and would have doubled my money on each one, it sucked and I took a break but I was able to stay in the game.  Having a 70% edge is massive and very unlikely the market would give you that on a per trade basis, plan for the downswing if you're in it for the long haul.  

 

[Zeuk]

7 minutes ago, timsk said:

No prizes for guessing how I know that!

 

Sounds like we've had similar experiences  

I cant be bothered with the amount of commitment trading takes these days so just invest, must admit i do still grind the poker tables though and the approach isnt that different. 

[Stacktastic]

 

2 hours ago, Zeuk said:

11 % is great

Dont risk anymore than 1% of your bankroll on any given trade
if you're in it for the long haul.  

2 hours ago, timsk said:

My guess is that your profit ratio isn't so great.

Just worked it out & im stunned it is 14.46%. Yes I average in with 1% trades and 0.5% with less risky trades.
I had META at 6% recently as it got pummelled but got 10% when it went back up as I averaged in.  
Im currently stuck with only Amazon at -18%, but I can do the same.
My biggest balls up is Paypal as I chose a x3 ETF & did not realise it goes to $0.00 eventually. Holding that hoping for a pop. no chance. 
Its a compound game for me as I have a small account so with regards to profit ratio its not amazing, but im learning. 
If I had £2 million then i would have enough for a house by now, but my electric bill has been paid by it & it does not take up much of my time. 
This is a 20-30 year thing for me so i have plenty of time to learn & improve & also grow my portfolio. Get rich quick is for idiots.  

To keep this on track what are peoples predictions for end of year silver spot price in £??? 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Stacktastic

[HerefordBullyun]

Cant wait for the goons to start asking for physical delivery in the CRIMEX

[Stacktastic]

9 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Cant wait for the goons to start asking for physical delivery in the CRIMEX

How accurate is this & where have they got thier data from as thats Malonys business & its in thier interest to create panic as they sell silver.  
I guess its USA based but thats a big move. dont trust that bloke especially as he is linked to the grifter Kiosaki.   

Edited December 9, 2022 by Stacktastic

[timsk]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

How accurate is this & where have they got thier data from as thats Malonys business & its in thier interest to create panic as they sell silver.  
I guess its USA based but thats a big move. dont trust that bloke especially as he is linked to the grifter Kiosaki.   

I have an open mind about silver shortage and market manipulation etc. The cynic in me says that the market is skewed, but I think that aboit the entire financial system - not just the silver market! Anyway, in the interests of balance, this video offers a different perspective:

 

[HerefordBullyun]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

How accurate is this & where have they got thier data from

Its says at the bottom its from the silver institute......

[EdwardTeach]

Is anyone else been having trouble ordering from the mint this morning?

The webpage where you select a delivery address isn't working and I’ve been unable to get through to their helpline.

[Mtaybar]

1 minute ago, EdwardTeach said:

Is anyone else been having trouble ordering from the mint this morning?

The webpage where you select a delivery address isn't working and I’ve been unable to get through to their helpline.

Yeah... looks like the new release melted their system lol

[StackerBritt]

26 minutes ago, timsk said:

I have an open mind about silver shortage and market manipulation etc. The cynic in me says that the market is skewed, but I think that aboit the entire financial system - not just the silver market! Anyway, in the interests of balance, this video offers a different perspective:

 

Interesting counter argument, although his voice is almost as bad to listen to as Robert Peston’s 🎧

[Stu]

9 hours ago, StackerBritt said:

Interesting counter argument, although his voice is almost as bad to listen to as Robert Peston’s 🎧

It’s not so much Preston’s voice as the way he structures and punctuates his sentences I feel. I think he does it on purpose the twat. 

[CANV]

silver won't 'go'.  until the day it does.  that could well be next month or in 15 years.  but one day it will blow up again..    just not for very long. 

[gji25]

On 07/12/2022 at 08:14, GoldDiggerDave said:

Silver is like NASA......Not been to the moon in over 40 years!  

Or as some people believe. never ever went to da moon