Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Oldun]

Dupe.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[Oldun]

5 minutes ago, Martlet said:

So what you say is silver front runs, not mirrors, inflation.  This will be important if inflation doesnt materialise, does that lead to a sharp fall?  And what if we do see inflation at modest levels, managed by low interest rates?  I dont believe the old ideas necessarily work anymore, if they ever did. 

Semantics, mirror, reflect, front run...either way this time silver is sniffing inflation due to the decline in the usd (which creates inflation in commodities).

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[HerefordBullyun]

I am adamant the silver will hit 40, not saying this year but certainly in the very near future

[Martlet]

6 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Semantics, mirror, reflect, front run...either way this time silver is sniffing inflation due to the decline in the usd (which creates inflation in commodities).

Not really semantics, mirror means copying, front running is ahead of and implies speculation here as events have not happened.  There is presently no significant inflation. Asset price increases are not inflation, commodities go up and down all the time independent of inflation. 

[Oldun]

Are you really going to pursue this choice of words in the bigger picture of things ? 
Here, this might help.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/the-fed-is-expected-to-make-a-major-commitment-to-ramping-up-inflation-soon.html

and pensions are in real trouble....where can they go for yield.....most have barely 0.5-1% investment in the pm space....https://www.cityam.com/without-reform-the-governments-ponzi-pension-scheme-will-bankrupt-us-all/

All these factors and more will affect pm prices and silver’s....

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[Martlet]

@OldunWould you say a target of 4% inflation is reflected in current price increases, or expecting far higher?  Right now we dont have anywhere near 4%, and large risk of deflation.  The concern would be PM prices are in a commodity bubble, ready to burst on a minor policy change, not a steady increase that encourages medium-long term investment. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Martlet

[Oldun]

To those with no job or income, inflation in even the basics can run to infinity. 
 

What minor policy change do you think would end the start of a major bull run ? Otherwise it is like saying I might get hit by a car tomorrow....sure I might but the likelihood is I wont. Silver is the devil’s metal for a good reason. It will rip your face off in both directions and fast as I mentioned earlier.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[kojak]

25 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Are you really going to pursue this choice of words in the bigger picture of things ? 
Here, this might help.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/the-fed-is-expected-to-make-a-major-commitment-to-ramping-up-inflation-soon.html

and pensions are in real trouble....where can they go for yield.....most have barely 0.5-1% investment in the pm space....https://www.cityam.com/without-reform-the-governments-ponzi-pension-scheme-will-bankrupt-us-all/

All these factors and more will affect pm prices and silver’s....

Was saying to my boss the other day, I wonder how long until the talk about targeting public sector pensions again given the current climate will take, not long as expected!

I wouldn't mind but I get paid a LOT less then what a reasonable equivalent in the private sector would, however I'm realistic enough to acknowledge that my pension, leave and sick pay are part of my overall package.

[Oldun]

Better have some kind of pension than nothing at all......good luck everyone if you are fully in aith silver...it will be one hell of a ride but knowing when to leave the party will be key.....I believe it is capable of $100 easy but have no idea what that will be in gbp at that time.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[KDave]

 

Here is what I am seeing/thinking on/crystal ballin on the silver/gold situation.

There are some early signs of inflation in the commodities, keep an eye on oil and gas and agri/potash, latest results are strong in potash, these are the first signs of inflation. It's coming, it just takes time to manifest further down the line. Consumer price inflation is maybe 12 months away, gold and silver anticipate this and also reflect falling dollar (reduced monetary value of dollar). 

The concern for buying silver in particular now is if dxy turns around. Dollar monetary value increases and inflation fails to materialise. Seems crazy now with dollar being printed into oblivion, but watch out for it, gold and silver will enter a downtrend when that happens for as long as dollar strengthens, could be a few months worth of declines. Inflation will be dampened during that period. These things will coincide, before we resume the trend, enter CPI inflationary period and hard times come for the consumer.

But who knows. 

[kojak]

I agree @Oldun. However the amount of 'friends' who have shoved into my face the amount they earn compared to me, without comprehending that they are personally responsible for investing some of that higher pay for there future when they retire is astounding.

They are the same people who will complain about my pension.

I made the choice to accept lower wages on the basis I would have a good pension scheme.

I'm aware that not everyone has had the luxury of being able to make that choice, it just annoys me when those who had the choice and the money to invest in there future havent bothered.

Anyhow better get back on topic!

Edited August 5, 2020 by kojak

[HerefordBullyun]

5 minutes ago, KDave said:

 

Here is what I am seeing/thinking on/crystal ballin on the silver/gold situation.

There are some early signs of inflation in the commodities, keep an eye on oil and gas and agri/potash, latest results are strong in potash, these are the first signs of inflation. It's coming, it just takes time to manifest further down the line. Consumer price inflation is maybe 12 months away, gold and silver anticipate this and also reflect falling dollar (reduced monetary value of dollar). 

The concern for buying silver in particular now is if dxy turns around. Dollar monetary value increases and inflation fails to materialise. Seems crazy now with dollar being printed into oblivion, but watch out for it, gold and silver will enter a downtrend when that happens for as long as dollar strengthens, could be a few months worth of declines. Inflation will be dampened during that period. These things will coincide, before we resume the trend, enter CPI inflationary period and hard times come for the consumer.

But who knows. 

Exactly Dave if we knew more people would piling in.

[Oldun]

Certainly will pull back at some point...reaching natural resistance level and nothing goes up in a straight line forever. Cup and handle may build after....

https://silverprice.org/silver-price-chart.html

[Oldun]

Every single time silver has rocketed, it nose dives back most of the way.....until the next time with long timeframes to sit and wait out (or accumulate). They dont call it the widowmaker in the pits for nothing !

 

[KDave]

2 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Certainly will pull back at some point...reaching natural resistance level and nothing goes up in a straight line forever. Cup and handle may build after....

https://silverprice.org/silver-price-chart.html

Vertical silver chart it's just not good. 

Honestly I think it will be the dollar turning around that kills it off for a few months.

[Oldun]

Interesting as The US actively seeks and needs a weaker dollar to export inflation away from it. And it is an election year, so no way the stockmarket will be allowed to dive until after then.

 

The usd is in a defined downward channel at the moment....but rallies within that channel will occur, of course.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Oldun

[Kman]

4 hours ago, KDave said:

The concern for buying silver in particular now is if dxy turns around.

I like looking back at 2008-2011 and looking what happened

Dollar blue | silver red (they're scaled to themselves, not as a % to one another)

You can see most of 2010 the dollar was rising, it did stall silver but didn't devastate it

They then rose together late 2010, dollar fell off again and silver went to the moon

I think as long as the dollar doesn't break back above 94 in the next two weeks we're fairly safe it's going to continue sinking

 

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Kman

[Martlet]

24 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Every single time silver has rocketed, it nose dives back most of the way.....until the next time with long timeframes to sit and wait out (or accumulate). They dont call it the widowmaker in the pits for nothing !

This is what i was getting at earlier, without the clarity the graph brings. 

[KDave]

Thanks for sharing the chart that's great, a definite link. It's one to keep an eye on, I've no idea on timing. 

[matrawr]

Hi ho silver!

[Kman]

I don't know anything but this is how I see it currently

The dollar in a downward trend, just like it retested resistance in July and got rejected  (circled yellow) and I think it's coming up to test 94 before continuing down. it's already had a go once and got rejected as you can see 

That little retest will stall or pull back PMs before they begin their new leg up and the dollar continues it's trend down

The red line as the bottom is it breaking an upward trend it's been in since 2011 

So yeah as long as it stays below 94 very confident

If it breaks above that and starts to retest March lows then I'd be a little bit concerned 

If it gets above Marches low and finds support then maybe this whole franchise is turning around 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Kman

[fireblade4life]

Cheers for bringing me up to speed guys! i'll keep on holding in that case.

[DarkChameleon]

57 minutes ago, Kman said:

I don't know anything but this is how I see it currently

The dollar in a downward trend, just like it retested resistance in July and got rejected  (circled yellow) and I think it's coming up to test 94 before continuing down. it's already had a go once and got rejected as you can see 

That little retest will stall or pull back PMs before they begin their new leg up and the dollar continues it's trend down

The red line as the bottom is it breaking an upward trend it's been in since 2011 

So yeah as long as it stays below 94 very confident

If it breaks above that and starts to retest March lows then I'd be a little bit concerned 

If it gets above Marches low and finds support then maybe this whole franchise is turning around 

 

With the talkof the seco dstimulous package its going to weaken, i recall when i converted a bunch of pounds to dollars and it had just crossed $2-£1....would like those days back for a spell but hey ho...at least right now pms are doing their job and holding value to currency.

[Bibbs]

6 hours ago, onlyroadtoheaven said:

Oh no, has Dave from the pub been saying stuff again?? Of course everyone loves a conspiracy, except for those that it plunges into deep anxiety. I have known many suffer in a severe way through this so you should be careful with unknown dates or facts.

Anyway, silver looks strong. I am glad it took a breather. I am also pleased for those newbies that came to the forum a few months back worried about premiums. They should be realising a nicer profit now.

No it wasn't Dave, it was a Nurse and an NHS worker re the letters and an ex copper re the date. 

[vand]

8 hours ago, Oldun said:

Semantics, mirror, reflect, front run...either way this time silver is sniffing inflation due to the decline in the usd (which creates inflation in commodities).

Soros popularized the term: Reflexivity