My first trade - Shell / BP

[Roy]

PAIN!! 😊

Just bought Shell @1025.

Another 15 mins and I'll be putting more into XOM.

I don't know. Anything could happen 🤷‍♂️

[KDave]

1 hour ago, Roy said:

PAIN!! 😊

Just bought Shell @1025.

Another 15 mins and I'll be putting more into XOM.

I don't know. Anything could happen 🤷‍♂️

Very nice price on those, obviously I wish I had waited for that £10.25 dip but saw £10.40 this morning and couldn't believe it half of the £9 shell fund went in, probably too early as usual. I am watching BP as well, I said to myself wait for £2.50 and didn't get it, perhaps there will be opportunity yet.  

XOM sub $40 with this dollar to £ and that dividend at these oil prices, something doesn't add up and I am assuming sentiment but who the hell knows maybe I am wrong again. 

Just remember being to early is the same as being wrong if you can't hold on, and it could be a rough few months for stocks if things turn against the market, tech stocks blow up and take the lot with them. Be prepared for the worst and get paid to endure the volatility, that is what the dividends are for. 

[HerculeHolmes]

On 31/08/2020 at 00:25, KDave said:

https://www.koamnewsnow.com/i/exxon-was-the-worlds-largest-company-in-2013-now-its-being-kicked-out-of-the-dow/

About as contrarian as it gets. 

https://www.livetradingnews.com/tesla-nasdaqtsla-stock-worth-more-than-exxonmobil-shell-and-bp-combined-193724.html

Or you could buy Tesla and be on the winning side. 👍

I think electric cars are a big fat scam. Right now is a Golden Age of used cars; ICE technology has matured and you can buy a car that is 10 or 20 years old - anything built since cars stopped being prone to rust - that works perfectly well and is just about as good as a brand new car, and old bangers are wonderful for people who only drive 50 miles a week; cheap to buy and fuel is a minor issue - you need to drive big distances to get value out of an electric car.

But the automotive industry is in the business of selling NEW cars, and when electric cars take over, who is going to buy an old electric car? EV's are only as good as their batteries. They are eye-wateringly expensive, but so what? FINANCE is the future; a very lucrative cash-extraction scheme in it' own right. People won't be able to buy cars to own and keep for 15 or 20 years, they'll finance their cars and when they can't make the monthly payment.. well then they are screwed if they can't get to work.

The car industry can sweep away the nuisance of old cars, the money-lenders will make a fortune on finance packages, the electricity companies will make out like bandits when they raise the price of electricity, and the Government will recoup the lost income from fuel by putting a super-tax on electricity and charging stations.

I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but it's a dirty business if you ask me.

Edited September 2, 2020 by HerculeHolmes
typos.

[KDave]

Yes I am running a 12 year old ford focus diesel I bought with cash before my daughter was born, it has cost me about £30 a month in initial cost, parts and repairs averaged out over the time I have had it. Nearly time for a new one, I am waiting for furlough and credit freezes to end and people to start handing back the PCP/on finance car keys on mass, there should be a lot of used cars flooding the market then and pushing down prices. That will be a good time to buy if it happens, but it largely depends on government. Likely the socialists in power called the conservative party will step in and prop people up.

There is also potential for another scrapage scheme as well maybe, as you say the car industry is really a financial one, they need to keep new cars selling as most of the value of a new car is in the debt they lend out. I think inflation over the coming years will kill most of the profits in that business model and likely the idea of renting a car too. Its only possible now because debt is so cheap for everyone.

[AndrewSL76]

I have bought into Beyond Meat more and more over the past week. That and Greatland Gold and Slack. I’m just over £50 up - which confirms I’m in at a low level (in for just over £1k at the moment), but one which is comfortable for me at the moment whilst I prospect and learn. I haven’t yet gone into BP or Shell hugely and am playing the waiting game for a bit. 

I saw that Zoom ‘zoomed’ up (forgive me) and kicked myself because I had read a while back that their report was coming and I did think after lockdown I bet their numbers are good. Lessons learned there.

Anyone have any thoughts on Apple? Their new phone is due out soon and I would think unless it’s a stinker (I guess there is every chance!) that could provide a small boost?

[KDave]

Apple is now worth more than the entire FTSE 100 constituents combined (according to its share price), and Tesla has a price to earnings that would mean you would have to wait almost a thousand years to get your money back from said earnings if you bought the company at today's share valuation. Make of that what you will.

[HerculeHolmes]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Apple is now worth more than the entire FTSE 100 constituents combined (according to its share price), and Tesla has a price to earnings that would mean you would have to wait almost a thousand years to get your money back from said earnings if you bought the company at today's share valuation. Make of that what you will.

I swear, if people ever wise-up to Apple (Louis Rossmann anyone?) Apple will spontaneously combust. Brilliant, brilliant marketing, but their products are flaky.

[Stacktastic]

17 hours ago, HerculeHolmes said:

I think electric cars are a bit fat scam.

I swear its because of driverless cars & traceability of people. A Tesla is a huge iPad & you need a lot of electric for that, so gasoline vehicles would just not work going forward. 

16 hours ago, AndrewSL76 said:

Anyone have any thoughts on Apple?

Yes its horrendously over valued, as are most companies like that. 

13 hours ago, HerculeHolmes said:

I swear, if people ever wise-up to Apple (Louis Rossmann anyone?) Apple will spontaneously combust. Brilliant, brilliant marketing, but their products are flaky.

I would agree if I was not sitting in a room with 2 macbook pros, 2 iPads, 2 iPhones, Apple Mouse and an actual apple  (my breakfast)

Edited September 2, 2020 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

Almost near March lows on Shell!! I wonder if any savvy investors out there were using that as a base to start investing?

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

No not me i was buying in the mid £10's, missed out on £9 and averaged into the low £11's, last week got back below £10 again. Hoping to see the £9, if we see it I'll be telling the grand kids about it 

[KDave]

Sorry that's below £11 again, must be getting ahead of myself in time again. 

[Stacktastic]

9 hours ago, KDave said:

Sorry that's below £11 again, must be getting ahead of myself in time again. 

i have a feeling that it might go up if this people rush out of tech stocks. I noticed that Carnival cruises shot up suddenly yesterday, so it makes sense that people are trying to buy more value stocks. ?? I don't know its all one big mess.

[KDave]

The actual oil price has definitely bottomed back in April, but that doesn't mean it can't drop a bit from here for a time. Ideally I would want to see oil drop again for a while and really kill off shale before the price takes off, that would be best in the long term for my positions, obviously my oil share prices would drop if that happened but the majors would get through it no trouble and it would provide further opportunity to average in. 

[Kman]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

The actual oil price has definitely bottomed back in April, but that doesn't mean it can't drop a bit from here for a time. Ideally I would want to see oil drop again for a while and really kill off shale before the price takes off, that would be best in the long term for my positions, obviously my oil share prices would drop if that happened but the majors would get through it no trouble and it would provide further opportunity to average in. 

Do you have any go to charts/sites you look at for world oil inventory, production, oil stored at sea on tankers and things like that?

[KDave]

Not really sorry I have nothing that you would find useful for charting/timing it is a weak spot for me for sure. But I don't look at it like that, my foundation is based on a currently weak understanding of macro-economics and value investing. I keep an eye on the rig count purely for academic purposes, and I visit oilprice.com for obvious reasons, it has some good articles on there that gleam interesting insight now and again, a bit like gold-eagle.com has editorials about gold, most of it is noise. Rigcount will tell you a tiny bit about supply, but its only half the picture and so useless (academic), as for tankers and storage I have no idea, if I knew it wouldn't change my thesis, long term its noise. I know you can buy access to that information.

I say the oil price bottomed in April because of the monthly prices, look at this;

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60

May 2019	66.83	-2.55 %
Jun 2019	59.76	-10.58 %
Jul 2019	61.48	2.88 %
Aug 2019	57.67	-6.20 %
Sep 2019	60.04	4.11 %
Oct 2019	57.27	-4.61 %
Nov 2019	60.40	5.47 %
Dec 2019	63.35	4.88 %
Jan 2020	61.63	-2.72 %
Feb 2020	53.35	-13.44 %
Mar 2020	32.20	-39.64 %
Apr 2020	21.04	-34.66 %
May 2020	30.38	44.39 %
Jun 2020	39.46	29.89 %
Jul 2020	42.07	6.61 %

You need to go back a very long time to see oil that low, even before the death of oil in 2015, it has bottomed imo. That doesn't mean that BP or Shell or any of them have bottomed though, share prices are 90% sentiment. The 30 year chart in that link is interesting. 

[Kman]

@KDave thanks

Yeah I'm just trying to get a better idea of oil price/production/inventory/demand and where the sweet spot is

I was looking at 2007-8 and the oil price going from $52 in January 07 to almost $150 July 08

it seemed to do a lot for Chevron but not so much other major western oil companies - Shell was the same price at $77 per barrel or $130 a year later

I assume that's because despite the high price the demand just wasn't there, or maybe the high price also hindered demand? 

The perfect conditions for oil stocks seem to have been 2009-2014, that's where I'd like macro data from to try and work out when we could see those conditions play out again. Maybe it was just low dollar+ economic growth 

It also made me wonder, during times of high oil price but low demand is that a time for smaller oil stocks to do well instead of majors? ones that can be profitable doing things at prices they wouldn't usually be able to make a profit on

Edited September 5, 2020 by Kman

[KDave]

24 minutes ago, Kman said:

@KDave thanks

Yeah I'm just trying to get a better idea of oil price/production/inventory/demand and where the sweet spot is

I was looking at 2007-8 and the oil price going from $52 in January 07 to almost $150 July 08

it seemed to do a lot for Chevron but not so much other major western oil companies - Shell was the same price at $77 per barrel or $130 a year later

I assume that's because despite the high price the demand just wasn't there, or maybe the high price also hindered demand? 

The perfect conditions for oil stocks seem to have been 2009-2014, that's where I'd like macro data from to try and work out when we could see those conditions play out again. Maybe it was just low dollar+ economic growth 

It also made me wonder, during times of high oil price but low demand is that a time for smaller oil stocks to do well instead of majors? ones that can be profitable doing things at prices they wouldn't usually be able to make a profit on

2008 recession - using your figures oil went from $52 to $150 - bottomed at $52 Jan 07, gradually rose causing a recession which started in December 2007 and oil peaked part way through the recession in 08. Leads and lags. The same pattern predicated the previous 2 recessions in 1991 and 2000, both saw oil bottom around two years before recession started. Stocks bottomed sometime after that. That included oil stocks by the way.

It is complicated, especially in regard to stocks and returns vs the oil price;

https://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/the-big-oil-crash-of-the-1990s/

[Stacktastic]

This is one hell of a day we are having with this stock!! Shell is below march Lows now!! 😛

[KDave]

WTI is 8% lower today, shares are falling with it. I have the lows for shell at £9.44, hopefully we get there again before things turn around.

[Stacktastic]

On 08/09/2020 at 15:55, KDave said:

WTI is 8% lower today, shares are falling with it. I have the lows for shell at £9.44, hopefully we get there again before things turn around.

I think it will go a lot lower, but the March low will be a figure it will hover around though. 

How do I work out the £ price out of interest, based on this. What number would it be??

I have a put for £100 for 1020 today. Wondering if it will start to climb now if the Nasdaq dips more? My account is -£2.55, its been around -£80-160 for over a month now, so feeling a bit more confident in my decisions. 

Im going to make a move on WTI oil I think & sell it when it regains a decent price again as it will certainly rise over the next 1 year or so. 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

24 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I think it will go a lot lower, but the March low will be a figure it will hover around though. 

How do I work out the £ price out of interest, based on this. What number would it be??

I have a put for £100 for 1020 today. I think it will hit that. 

I looked at the charts, turns out its not a good way to find the exact number £9.44 is not accurate as the low, it appears lower on more detailed charts. I am struggling to find the exact low back in March, on the more detailed chart it looks around £9.10-£9.20 between midday 18th March to midday 19th March, about 24 hours before it was back above £10 again, so the window was small, perhaps you are right to set targets on auto. 

For entry prices, when I started I set targets as to how much I wanted to invest into each sector, divided into companies, then took an initial position at the current price. I then hold back cash and set price targets to the downside, nothing technical just psychological levels, with plans to cost average in monthly otherwise. I use wages to cost average in then if we get a big sell off I have the cash ready to go where I want it to. There are likely much better ways to do it. I had actually finished cost averaging into shell from wages and the cash I kept held back for sub £9 was going to go elsewhere, but as my average had risen above £11, I couldn't help myself and kept nibbling away at these lower prices. I bought again at £10.11 the other day, if we actually see sub £9 shell it won't make much difference to the average. I will buy the last lot once I see the number 9 to be honest.  I have been more disciplined with BP, I bought initially at £3.07, then set targets at £2.80, £2.60 and £2.40, two out of three so far, again if we don't see the lower price its not the end of the world, I just cost average in until the target is hit, almost there now. The plan is also to reinvest dividends into them though ideally I want to be buying other sectors on the list and will probably use the funds for those. I have neglected VOD at these low prices and will probably regret it, but you can't have every bargain if you want to keep some cash.  

[Stacktastic]

55 minutes ago, KDave said:

I looked at the charts, turns out its not a good way to find the exact number £9.44 is not accurate as the low, it appears lower on more detailed charts. I am struggling to find the exact low back in March, on the more detailed chart it looks around £9.10-£9.20 between midday 18th March to midday 19th March, about 24 hours before it was back above £10 again, so the window was small, perhaps you are right to set targets on auto. 

For entry prices, when I started I set targets as to how much I wanted to invest into each sector, divided into companies, then took an initial position at the current price. I then hold back cash and set price targets to the downside, nothing technical just psychological levels, with plans to cost average in monthly otherwise. I use wages to cost average in then if we get a big sell off I have the cash ready to go where I want it to. There are likely much better ways to do it. I had actually finished cost averaging into shell from wages and the cash I kept held back for sub £9 was going to go elsewhere, but as my average had risen above £11, I couldn't help myself and kept nibbling away at these lower prices. I bought again at £10.11 the other day, if we actually see sub £9 shell it won't make much difference to the average. I will buy the last lot once I see the number 9 to be honest.  I have been more disciplined with BP, I bought initially at £3.07, then set targets at £2.80, £2.60 and £2.40, two out of three so far, again if we don't see the lower price its not the end of the world, I just cost average in until the target is hit, almost there now. The plan is also to reinvest dividends into them though ideally I want to be buying other sectors on the list and will probably use the funds for those. I have neglected VOD at these low prices and will probably regret it, but you can't have every bargain if you want to keep some cash.  

I bought when it was quite high, but I have chipped in all the way down, especially with BP, so I am eventually seeing a better figure as my account is +£1.98 as the mining stocks seem to be doing better. Either way in time it will go back up & those prices will be legendary I think, especially if they go back to an 115 dividend! I think the commodes sectors might see some nice gains over the next few months. I am not sure it will be anything production related but people just switching sides & investing to safer areas, like the mines, agri products & other tangibles like oil. 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

Bought into a crude oil ETF today. Missed the real low, but happy with that price as a start. Gonna start adding to it as I dont think its bottomed at all yet, maybe end of September? Having said that its apparently started shifting barrels now, plus people might move from other sectors if the indexes plummet anymore. 

happy capping it at a grand. If I combine that with a uranium stock (probably Cameco) I can spread my risk a little incase oil really goes under (doubt that very much). I can see it gaining at least 20% in a year or more, maybe earlier if travel & group restrictions go back to normal. If we have 2009 prices that could be a nice little earner - £70. I shall just sell on a high & reinvest to another sector. 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

WOW - What a week end! I was £120-140 on each stock, which is not too bad as I have £1500 in each.

What are peoples opinions on selling this stock if it tips back in the positive (like in the 7th Sept)? I am pretty sure that there will be a second lockdown of sorts so sitting on the cash might be a plan, plus I may also need the money? Maybe sell half & cost average if it hits another low like Friday or even the rate its on now? I dont think its too bad if you look at the bigger charts to be fair, but it would be nice to get an even better average. If it goes up and does not come down at least I have 50% invested. I could do with the spare cash anyway. 

[KDave]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

WOW - What a week end! I was £120-140 on each stock, which is not too bad as I have £1500 in each.

What are peoples opinions on selling this stock if it tips back in the positive (like in the 7th Sept)? I am pretty sure that there will be a second lockdown of sorts so sitting on the cash might be a plan, plus I may also need the money? Maybe sell half & cost average if it hits another low like Friday or even the rate its on now? I dont think its too bad if you look at the bigger charts to be fair, but it would be nice to get an even better average. If it goes up and does not come down at least I have 50% invested. I could do with the spare cash anyway. 

If you can get the timing right then fair play I have not worked out how to trade the short term movements myself and stick to buying with longer term targets in mind. 

Sentiment is very low despite a higher average oil price over the last quarter and results coming soon, I don't know what people are thinking but you can almost taste the fear at these prices.

Yesterday I finally bought shell at 973, a triumph of sorts as I have been holding that money for months. I missed the lowest it got yesterday as I was not paying enough attention (at work). I also bought more BP at 237 and added Total (FP) to the oilies to go along with Repsol and prior to ex-dividend, decent yield on Total now. That is the last I will put in to oil this year (maybe) as I have been neglecting telecoms which are also still very cheap, hopefully they stay low for a bit longer and allow me to get in.

Those four appear to be attempting to set up and take as much share of the non existent hydrogen market as possible while they continue to produce oil and gas. All of these renewable electricity buys are being done in order to use it themselves, BP has gone heavy into it PR wise, though oil and gas will still be needed and at a much higher prices for hydrogen to be viable in regard to cost. Between them all they must know something.