My first trade - Shell / BP

[Roy]

If I gave you a fish, you'd eat for a day.

Your questions were simple yet your attitude was haughty, nay imperious. 

It must be difficult being so 'awesome'?

[Martlet]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370008-coming-inflation-boom-is-going-to-catch-lot-of-people-off-guard

If you want some encouragement instead read this one 

Low prices are the cure to low prices

MMT certainly wont save us.  Its proponents are socialists that dont see a problem controlling inflation through tax, as they love to tax everything anyway. 

 

[KDave]

Inflation is the future, yes there is still a big risk of deflation. I don't care what happens to my holdings over the next two years, ideally I want deflation in order to buy stocks and gold cheap. It would also be amazing to see Wonga get the last laugh, but I am not banking on it. This stuff is cheap now. It could get cheaper yes, I hope so. It won't stay cheap forever!

Low prices are the cure to low prices - in regard to oil prices and production has fallen to the point that supply will not meet demand when it ramps back up, oil prices will have to rise. Once they rise new oil that needs those higher prices to be profitable can be brought on line and increase supply, but it will lag. Low prices are the cure to low prices. 

The scenario built around MMTing the hell out of it and inflation takes off due to excess liquidity, it will take a while imo. Too much deflationary pressure. As said elsewhere the FED are more worried about deflation than anything else at the moment, they are fighting it. If they don't do enough/lose the fight, deflation comes first, then we all know what they do every single time - more QE to infinity and more direct liquidity injection. 

If deflation first, there will be a once in a life time opportunity to buy everything, stocks, gold you name it. Followed by a decade of inflation. There isn't another way out. Not inflating at this point is deflationary. They have to inflate to reduce the debt loading in real terms, its an anchor that is dragging the entire system down. They have no choice, its just a matter of central bank action deciding the order of events, intentionally or not. 

[Stacktastic]

16 hours ago, Kman said:

 based on the insecurity of your choices and inability to defend them

Let's keep things civil, we all have different opinions, but a common cause.
 

19 hours ago, Roy said:

I don't know anything, but I see house purchases are on the rise. 

People want inflation.

I went for a walk yesterday and I was surprised how many houses have sold. Combination I think of being cooped up at home for 3 months, no stamp duty, time to move as furlough is still on & a delay in the market peak buying season, leading to a sudden rush. 

All gonna stall after furlough i think Oct time. They will be kicking themselves in 3-4 years when/if property prices plummet. 

On topic. I purchase £400 of shell & bp yesterday in the second low dips around 1pm. Happy with that. Almost as cheap as March!!!!
Either I am making a colossal mistake here, or this is a deal of a lifetime. Cant decide 😛

Edited August 22, 2020 by Stacktastic

[AndrewSL76]

I went in for some Beyond Meat. I read about it and it seems to have a growing business. I’m still a few decades off changing my diet though!!!!!

[Stacktastic]

9 hours ago, AndrewSL76 said:

I went in for some Beyond Meat. I read about it and it seems to have a growing business. I’m still a few decades off changing my diet though!!!!!

Yes seems to crop up everywhere. Dont know anything about any of this though. A freezer full of meat is my priority atm.

[HerculeHolmes]

I put a small amount of money on Shell and BP using Trading 212. I was tempted to add more but Ramin over at PensionCraft rates the Trading 212 app as "gambling". Maybe I should stick with index funds.

[Martlet]

15 hours ago, HerculeHolmes said:

I put a small amount of money on Shell and BP using Trading 212. I was tempted to add more but Ramin over at PensionCraft rates the Trading 212 app as "gambling". Maybe I should stick with index funds.

I would say Ramin at Pensioncraft is being a bit of an arse.  There's nothing gambling about using a particular app for investment and trading.  Trading 212 is just a tool, strategy of how we chose to invest is upto us, and you can buy index funds on Trading 212 too. 

 

Sadly last comment permitted on this subject as another sub-forum goes off limits to non-paying members of community.  Enjoy your investment. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Martlet

[AndrewSL76]

I would agree that Ramin at Pensioncraft is being ridiculous and judgmental here. He is also incredibly biased on the basis of his job and background and you should not trust anyone who rubbishes a competitor like this. 

If you give your money to any platform - whether this is a multinational bank that offers a trading platform or a easily workable application like Trading 212 - it is 'gambling' as unless you are specifically in the know about something that is about to happen (which is likely illegal anyway), you never know what is going to happen - right? So me putting a couple of hundred quid into Beyond Meat is a gamble whether it is on Trading 212 or anywhere else. 

Speaking of which - anyone else in on Beyond? They only launched last year and have been doing well. The last few times I have eaten out the vegan/veggie option has been their product....given the focus on plant based diets etc. I am going to 'gamble' on them for a bit longer.

[AndrewSL76]

Does 5huggy have a bus? He’s kept that secret. I bet it looks like this: 

I just googled Robinhood as I literally have no clue at the moment. Interesting. Seems Beyond are in their top 100. Not sure if this is significant though! 

I’m not investing thousands so this is just a toe dip to experience it.

EDIT: So, just to clarify my comment about the bus. I had understood an earlier comment about a bus to mean a free ride re investing. The picture and comment should be viewed in this context.

Thanks to the person who kindly pointed out that it could be viewed in another way.

Edited August 23, 2020 by AndrewSL76

[Stacktastic]

On 22/08/2020 at 21:58, HerculeHolmes said:

Ramin over at PensionCraft rates the Trading 212 app as "gambling". 

I chatted with him personally and realised that he is a very safe investor mainly with bonds - not the best tactic atm.
Like Maneco, he is another guy making the most of his fame and income from this situation as I guess he had no job in March. 

With regards to 212 he has not used the app, he only said that as it makes money from CFD's. Just choose the ISA option. 
Its a click bait video with very little research. 

Just dont touch the tech stocks LOL. 

On 22/08/2020 at 11:25, AndrewSL76 said:

I went in for some Beyond Meat. I read about it and it seems to have a growing business. I’m still a few decades off changing my diet though!!!!!

Might start looking into this as its my background (farming). 

Im gonna start a fish farm in my house if it gets that bad. 
Of become veggie.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Stacktastic

[ChrisSilver]

Some off topic / argumentative posts hidden. Please remain respectful to all members at all times.

@Stacktastic should I have missed any posts or there are any off topic posts that should be hidden please report.  

[HerculeHolmes]

On 22/08/2020 at 11:17, Stacktastic said:

Let's keep things civil, we all have different opinions, but a common cause.
 

I went for a walk yesterday and I was surprised how many houses have sold. Combination I think of being cooped up at home for 3 months, no stamp duty, time to move as furlough is still on & a delay in the market peak buying season, leading to a sudden rush. 

All gonna stall after furlough i think Oct time. They will be kicking themselves in 3-4 years when/if property prices plummet. 

On topic. I purchase £400 of shell & bp yesterday in the second low dips around 1pm. Happy with that. Almost as cheap as March!!!!
Either I am making a colossal mistake here, or this is a deal of a lifetime. Cant decide 😛

I put the same amount into Shell and BP a couple of weeks ago. It seemed like a no-brainer until I heard Peter Lynch say this:

https://youtu.be/qQfe02XD2MQ?t=290

I might have made a boo-boo.

[KDave]

If you don't know why you are investing then yes of course its a mistake. What as the reason for investing in them in the first place, because the price was low and it went lower? It could get a lot lower yet. 

[HerculeHolmes]

5 minutes ago, KDave said:

If you don't know why you are investing then yes of course its a mistake. What as the reason for investing in them in the first place, because the price was low and it went lower? It could get a lot lower yet. 

What Peter Lynch observed is that the USA has gone from 5 million barrels of shale oil a day to 12 million barrels, and he doesn't believe demand is going to increase. I'm not nervous of the value of my portfolio going down, I'm sure even it goes down 50% (as Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet say) it'll go back up again over time. But I am worried about buying "cheap" stocks that aren't going anywhere but down. I've only got a small amount (£750) invested on Trading 212 to test the waters and get a sense of how investing works, but it's not the kind of mistake I want to make later on when I'm ready to make my first serious "all my eggs in one basket" investment.

That said, I know they say you're supposed to "strap in to the rollercoaster and stay in your seat" when it comes to equity investment but a crash is expected in October, so wouldn't it make sense to cash-in now and buy back in during the crash? I don't get it.

[KDave]

Yes it might be early which would be the same as being wrong but I don't think its too early to be buying personally, I am content to take the hit in the short term and just keep buying all the way through. Sure the market might crash next month, if you think so then sell everything and buy back next month. The trouble is the crash in October might not happen, and if it does happen it might not happen in October. It might be in one sector of the market (tech) and not take down value stocks that are already hammered, or it might take the whole lot with it. Who knows! I think it likely we will see a crash but I don't know when and I don't know from which level, so I am buying now bits a time. 

I am concerned that you say a serious investment should be all eggs in one basket, this is in my opinion not a good idea unless you are extremely confident on something or are insider trading, otherwise it will likely end in tears. Better to be diversified into many areas you like and some you don't, and then if you are wrong in one place your loss might be covered by where you are right. There is a saying that if you are not losing money somewhere then you are not properly diversified and if you are losing money everywhere the same applies and shouldn't come as a surprise.

Peter lynch is backwards looking at supply just like everyone else, trust me they ain't pumping 12 million barrels a day now, you don't have to take my word for it. A year ago rig count was 900+ now its 254. The oil crash has killed production and the lack of new activity with these oil prices will kill it further. Sentiment in oil has killed off investment and will continue to kill it off further. The longer sentiment and the oil price stays low, the better it is for the companies that are left, the ones that will survive this environment and take the majority of the market. The lack of sentiment and investment will kill off new entrants allowing the ones already in to consolidate. The cure to low prices, is low prices.  

[Kman]

1 hour ago, HerculeHolmes said:

 But I am worried about buying "cheap" stocks that aren't going anywhere but down

As KDave said, you would hope the competently run big companies would be using the next year or two to streamline themselves, buy up cheap assets from other companies going bankrupt and when the economy is better come out on the other side looking good with rising oil prices

I think there will be a crash from looking at different economic data (thread below) but who knows

 

 

[KDave]

https://www.koamnewsnow.com/i/exxon-was-the-worlds-largest-company-in-2013-now-its-being-kicked-out-of-the-dow/

About as contrarian as it gets. 

https://www.livetradingnews.com/tesla-nasdaqtsla-stock-worth-more-than-exxonmobil-shell-and-bp-combined-193724.html

Or you could buy Tesla and be on the winning side. 👍

[KDave]

I have bought some more shell today knocked a bit off the average back to £10 and change, BP are also at 25 year lows. Brent at a 5 month high who would have thought 

[Stacktastic]

On 30/08/2020 at 20:41, KDave said:

Because the price was low and it went lower? It could get a lot lower yet. 

I can believe that. might go below March lows. I seriously think this is the lowest it will ever get. Gonna continue to invest, if they go bust - hey, thats the way it is but I think this will strengthen thier positions in 5 years or so as they can buy up all the struggling companies, for next to nothing cant they! 

On 30/08/2020 at 19:44, HerculeHolmes said:

I might have made a boo-boo.

I don't think so as BP and especially Shell still have pretty good finances & have already made steps to not only cut costs, but are also investing heavily in other greener sectors, so its a long term hold. Are they going to go out of business, no I doubt it very much, but they will struggle if there is another lockdown. A market collapse is not a bad thing as long as people are out and about in thier cars or going on holiday. Moreover industry is set to really kick back off again soon, thus using more fuel. I remember what happened in the last recession - fuel shot up so much I started making my own Biofuel with a mini refinery.

The guy you quoted seems like a bit of a know it all if you ask me. He mentions the textile industry, but that was just common sense as the developing markets were coming thorough with cheap labour as well as mechanised machines. I don't know anything about him to be fair, but maybe he is correct? However I have held the belief that you buy stocks people don't like or know about, a bit like gold mines a few years back. 

I would not worry about eggs and baskets this is a good buying opportunity - once in a lifetime for this industry. Is it risky, yes but I do feel a lot of people have jumped on oil companies due to the dividends & I would assume have either sold or have stop losses that automatically sell. I don't think you have made a boo boo, but I might be wrong. its only £750 at the end of the day, I have invested a couple of grand now & intend to double that as this wont last forever. 

My personal buying technique I think is to wait for opportunities on very undervalued stocks and only add them when a good opportunity comes along. Its a little different at the moment as its not normal is it, but in 10 years I will probably only add 1 or 2 stocks a year. Obviously the mining stocks are a no brainer, specially Greatland, that has now made me £50 (2000 shares) & Barrick (as Lord almighty Buffet opened that to the masses). I only really intend to buy uranium companies now, but waiting for a decent pull back. That will be a short term play as per the mining stocks (2-5 years).

I want some decent world covering dividend ETF's to spread a bit of risk of only owning a few stocks atm (especially the emerging markets), but i will only do that on a crash assuming that happens. I will move to the tech sector & the big dividend stocks (ie johnson & johnson, Tesla, etc.) when it plummets. I just cant see that sustaining itself as a lot of the investors are just normal people like me so will all bail out when it goes. Let's face it all you have to do is look at the tech bubble to see that it will happen at some point, they people are really silly if they think holding it for a long time is a good idea. I can see speculative plays for a month or so can be highly profitable, but its not for me. All of my research shows that buying low dividends are great long term & the odd speculative growth stock (such as Qualcom last year) to hold long term. I almost bought Amazon back in the day & also Ali babba when that went public - what a muppet! 

On 30/08/2020 at 21:28, KDave said:

I am content to take the hit in the short term and just keep buying all the way through. Sure the market might crash next month, if you think so then sell everything and buy back next month.

Peter lynch is backwards looking at supply just like everyone else, trust me they ain't pumping 12 million barrels a day now, you don't have to take my word for it. 

Did you buy in the dip just now? I added another £400 on Shell & BP. 

On 31/08/2020 at 00:25, KDave said:

https://www.koamnewsnow.com/i/exxon-was-the-worlds-largest-company-in-2013-now-its-being-kicked-out-of-the-dow/

I don't think Exxon is a great purchase as they are not going into green energy as far as im aware.
Great in America as they have little laws on 'climate change' (I prefer to call it, living responsibly), but the world is now changing at a much faster rate now. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

20 minutes ago, KDave said:

I have bought some more shell today knocked a bit off the average back to £10 and change, BP are also at 25 year lows. Brent at a 5 month high who would have thought 

Still Plummeting!!! BP went back up so Shell should follow soon!

10-11 am seems the best time for both companies. I shall stick to my policy of one investment a week. Max £200 per company though, wish i had not put £700 in both at the start now. but it should all be profits before too long, so its cool. 
 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

On 30/08/2020 at 19:44, HerculeHolmes said:

I might have made a boo-boo.

I like videos like this as he really goes into depth and does not have an ego to protect, only posted a few days ago. 
 

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

Yes I had finished with it for now but I've had some set aside waiting for bargains incliding £9 shell, so I've put some of that in, I bought enough to get my average below £11 again. Last time I saw this price was back in march which was incredible, I remember 2015 and the end of oil narrative, I don't remember £10 a share back then. Maybe we see it bust through to £9 and I can keep the average falling over the next few months. I think the next few months could be rough if you are hoping for a quick win. But long term I am very confident these prices will look a bargain in a few years. 

Apple is now worth more than the entire FTSE, turns out I should have bought them instead, and Tesla, can't lose.

[KDave]

Exxon is very tempting at this price as well especially with the dollar where it is. 

[Kman]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

I like videos like this as he really goes into depth and does not have an ego to protect, only posted a few days ago. 

He says things in that video like shell are diverse in their business

Ok, but what % profit is from what? oil, gas, upstream/downstream, chemical products etc

Who cares if chemical products are doing well if it's only a small % of the business

I'm not saying shell wont do well but the level of depth in his insight is very shallow

Without knowing any of the details I can look at oil price and compare it to shell sp and see how correlated they are, so he can talk about diversity all he wants but it's clear what the driving force is 

Edit> should also add demand and not having a huge load of oil stockpiled up 

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Kman