My first trade - Shell / BP

[Kman]

Record money going into stocks - https://www.ft.com/content/91cb3990-7ace-41f0-9939-d7fe8d0cab02

"it was the largest weekly haul by equity funds since EPFR has been collecting the data, as well as the second-biggest intake by US stock funds since 2000."

When the S&P is already at record highs during a pandemic on the verge of a mass insolvency crisis.. unless these are all traders this is truly the dumbest of the dumb money

I've heard big financial intuitions like to swap out of positions March, June, September and December to make their quarter books look less risky and that it can cause a bottle neck in the repo market inducing sell offs, I looked at charts and there appears to be a lot of merit to it 

I could post dozens of charts but you can look for yourselves, here's just a few - we know what happened in March but you can see the S&P500 just before June and September pump up a couple weeks before selling off

 

The Japanese yen which is sensitive to US bond weakens then spikes

 

It's less clear on the dollar DXY but where did it stop falling and strengthen: June and September 

The difference being after September it firmed up too, so when it strengthens in December will that be the start of a new trend up, could be 

My prediction is stocks, bitcoin, oil up for the next week before it getting very ugly for them in December - dollar and bonds up

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Kman

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, HighlandTiger said:

You are only "down", if you actually sell them. My worse performing stock is down 21% in a month, but I'm not panicking, and I'm certainly not thinking of selling. I'm happy to wait, even if it takes years to go back into the green.

Silver has dropped 18% in less than 4 months, but I don't see anyone saying "oh poo, I need to sell it all before it goes down anymore". As I said, my mindset with shares is to treat them like my pm's, don't worry about them in the short term, and like you said, "stop looking at it everyday" if your nerves are on the jangly side. 

@HighlandTiger is right @Stacktastic. Patience is key I'm down over a grand on MAG will I sell, nope only when I'm in profit.

[Roy]

'You are only "down", if you actually sell them. My worse performing stock is down 21% in a month, but I'm not panicking, and I'm certainly not thinking of selling. I'm happy to wait, even if it takes years to go back into the green.'

 

This doesn't make sense.

IF you buy £1000 of stock and it drops 21% (£210), you are happy to wait years for it to break even and then still wait for a profit?

[HerefordBullyun]

6 minutes ago, Roy said:

'You are only "down", if you actually sell them. My worse performing stock is down 21% in a month, but I'm not panicking, and I'm certainly not thinking of selling. I'm happy to wait, even if it takes years to go back into the green.'

 

This doesn't make sense.

IF you buy £1000 of stock and it drops 21% (£210), you are happy to wait years for it to break even and then still wait for a profit?

💯 Roy👍

[HighlandTiger]

1 hour ago, Roy said:

'You are only "down", if you actually sell them. My worse performing stock is down 21% in a month, but I'm not panicking, and I'm certainly not thinking of selling. I'm happy to wait, even if it takes years to go back into the green.'

 

This doesn't make sense.

IF you buy £1000 of stock and it drops 21% (£210), you are happy to wait years for it to break even and then still wait for a profit?

Yep. We all do it with PM's and don't bat an eyelid. Why do you have to have a different mindset with shares. For me it's all about the long game. I'm not day trading.

If I hold £1000 of stock for 5 years and for a period of time it falls 20%, so what, because if after 5 years it has risen to be worth £1500, I would have made the equivalent of around 10% per year. But I also during those 5 years I would have had 5 years of dividends as well. Which would bump up my overall return as well. 

 

[HerefordBullyun]

3 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Yep. We all do it with PM's and don't bat an eyelid. Why do you have to have a different mindset with shares. For me it's all about the long game. I'm not day trading.

If I hold £1000 of stock for 5 years and for a period of time it falls 20%, so what, because if after 5 years it has risen to be worth £1500, I would have made the equivalent of around 10% per year. But I also during those 5 years I would have had 5 years of dividends as well. Which would bump up my overall return as well. 

 

That's why I use freetrade. If you have trading account they sometimes charge you fees for being dormant

[Kman]

Patience and not being reactionary are good but I think they're better put to use on entries

Better to miss the boat than get on and sink

[HerefordBullyun]

8 minutes ago, Kman said:

Patience and not being reactionary are good but I think they're better put to use on entries

Better to miss the boat than get on and sink

Any entry point for miners is ok given the fact we are in a 3 to 5 year bull market

[HighlandTiger]

18 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

That's why I use freetrade. If you have trading account they sometimes charge you fees for being dormant

My account will rarely be dormant because I will be adding to it every month

 

14 minutes ago, Kman said:

Patience and not being reactionary are good but I think they're better put to use on entries

Better to miss the boat than get on and sink

Excellent point. 

[KDave]

Not sure about gold miners, not yet anyway its possible that we have seen a top as per 2016;

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/precious-metals-now-and-then-comparison

No one knows what will happen though. I have a theory I am confident about and have positioned a decent amount (for me) in most of the oil majors, buying all the way down to the current lows - perhaps there will be new lows soon to get rid of the now thousands in the green, but honestly who cares. I am happier looking at red every time I log on to buy as it means I am getting more shares for my money and bringing the average down - a bigger position today for tomorrow. I plan for years worth of dividends, cost averaging and compounding before I start thinking about selling at 3 figure oil price at the minimum - the same system/theory could be said for buying PM miners now, gold miners bought on the way down will look like a great buy in hindsight once we pass the 2020 highs, who knows when that will be - perhaps next year? Perhaps longer, but at some point this decade for sure imo.

Personally I can't work out the short term, I am confident with the long term picture. To action its just a matter of committing funds over a timeframe you are happy to lock them away, as others have said, it doesn't matter if a share price falls over the short term when you are looking years out. Just don't invest money that you will miss or need over the timeframe or at some point you will be shaken out.

[Stacktastic]

21 hours ago, Kman said:

My prediction is stocks, bitcoin, oil up for the next week before it getting very ugly for them in December - dollar and bonds up

Your probably spot on there.

I have a WTI ETF thats 16% up at the moment. I am considering selling when i think it's peaked.
Im in £73 profit so far. As you say I can see it all turning around again, as all this BS is not going away any time soon. 
I can always buy it back at the bottom again as the cycle should repeat, not sure it will go as low again though. 

Crypto is also due a hard pull back. 

Full US would be a good catalysts & also Biden 'winning', although we all know that he wont implement any green stuff until the economy has been reset. 
Even then its a decade or more until Oil is not really needed, depending on battery & electric power technology developments. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Stacktastic

[HerefordBullyun]

4 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Your probably spot on there.

I have a WTI ETF thats 16% up at the moment. I am considering selling when i think it's peaked.
Im in £73 profit so far. As you say I can see it all turning around again, as all this BS is not going away any time soon. 
I can always buy it back at the bottom again as the cycle should repeat, not sure it will go as low again though. 

Crypto is also due a hard pull back. 

Full US would be a good catalysts & also Biden 'winning', although we all know that he wont implement any green stuff until the economy has been reset. 
Even then its a decade or more until Oil is not really needed, depending on battery & electric power technology developments. 

You may want to look at the renewables green energy thread I just started @Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

20 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

@HighlandTiger is right @Stacktastic. Patience is key I'm down over a grand on MAG will I sell, nope only when I'm in profit.

Makes me feel better. We averaged about the same price i think? But you put in more.

20 hours ago, Roy said:

'You are only "down", if you actually sell them.

Yes certainly. I am thinking more macro now and concentrating on only a few areas at a time. 
For example the oil industry this year. I need to set my self some rules and stick to that. But I have learnt a lot. 
One thing I need to do is the kdave prediction stuff, as thats handy to estimate a possible bottom to buy. 

As per HB my MAG IS -£250 at the moment, im not the slightest bit bothered.
I will add to that if I can afford it and silver is at a relative bottom. £14 is possibly it? 

18 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Any entry point for miners is ok given the fact we are in a 3 to 5 year bull market

 

15 hours ago, KDave said:

Not sure about gold miners, not yet anyway its possible that we have seen a top as per 2016;

Personally I can't work out the short term, I am confident with the long term picture. 

Its a bit confusing isn't it. As you say & HB says there is certainly a bull run and that is backed up by ludicrous QE!!
Not to mention the social & political climate. Even if my gold looses £500 an oz, at least there is pieces of mind is the SHTF. 

One possible thing I can fathom is that gold started to be 'cool' again, suddenly it was all over the media. 
A lot of people might have bought into it as a get right scheme, plus its safe in light of the money printing & over inflated Nasdaq.
The crash has simple not happened so possibly as November is usually a sell of month, more people have misjudged it and sold.
Even little traders like me all add up. 3 million people with £1000 invested must have an impact?

I noticed that during the gold ruch the miners did not really go up as much as they should have. maybe more people were buying paper money??

Long term yes. I am adding to my GDXJ, MAG, GREATLAND & my gold ETF, when ever I have some spare money, but will wait till it hits a reasonable bottom.
I think we are due some serious political unrest soon and/or a markets crash and that usually equals higher gold prices. 


but dont have the patience to 

[HerefordBullyun]

We are now at consolidation levels with silver and gold now. I can see a run up coming either before Xmas and going even higher when Biden offers the biggest stimulus package in history. He will go big regardless whether it is going to wall or main Street. The republican congress may tamper with it but if there is promises made to wall st it will get voted through. Yellen is dovish and has been given the state secretary for finance. Now she's left the Fed her poisoned chalice is over. But she's an outright democrat so she will push the fed into writing some massive liquidity. Biden I guarantee you will spend more than trump. And trump spent double what Obama did in two terms. And Obama broke all QE records. 

What's this got to do with stocks a lot.  I predict a crash and Yellen is not Hank Paulson she won't cope like him. 

The market crash will be undoing of Biden. 

I expect also helicopter money given to main Street. 

[RichmondStacker]

3 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

We are now at consolidation levels with silver and gold now. I can see a run up coming either before Xmas and going even higher when Biden offers the biggest stimulus package in history. He will go big regardless whether it is going to wall or main Street. The republican congress may tamper with it but if there is promises made to wall st it will get voted through. Yellen is dovish and has been given the state secretary for finance. Now she's left the Fed her poisoned chalice is over. But she's an outright democrat so she will push the fed into writing some massive liquidity. Biden I guarantee you will spend more than trump. And trump spent double what Obama did in two terms. And Obama broke all QE records. 

What's this got to do with stocks a lot.  I predict a crash and Yellen is not Hank Paulson she won't cope like him. 

The market crash will be undoing of Biden. 

I expect also helicopter money given to main Street. 

Arms stocks will get a boost when Biden takes over. Judging by his transition team a certain country will get their wars which Trump wouldn’t start. 
 

Arms stocks are where I draw the line because if I’m doing well then villages in Yemen and Syria won’t be. 

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, RichmondStacker said:

Arms stocks will get a boost when Biden takes over. Judging by his transition team a certain country will get their wars which Trump wouldn’t start. 
 

Arms stocks are where I draw the line because if I’m doing well then villages in Yemen and Syria won’t be. 

Completely agree mate as an ex soldier and been in warzones being on the receiving end of it. I have no interest in the military industrial complex especially when a majority of the conflicts were based on BS and a rich man's confidence trick.

Edited November 25, 2020 by HerefordBullyun

[KDave]

I like BAE, Boeing and RR. as reflation buys rather than to cash in on any Biden wars.

If you want to cash in on Biden/US wars - invest in oil of course! 

 

[KDave]

Oil is going to do very well thanks to this push for green as the only way to get where the watermelons want to be is massive investment via carbon fuels. Biden will be excellent for oil it will amplify the gains as he is going to smash US shale production and then start wars in the middle east or anywhere else that has a large reserve of the black stuff, just at a time when world consumption will be ramping up in a big way. Trump if he wins will have less impact as a catalyst, but regardless of who gets into the Whitehouse will be conducting more QE and spending it into the economy.

[Silverman2U]

1 minute ago, KDave said:

Oil is going to do very well thanks to this push for green as the only way to get where the watermelons want to be is massive investment via carbon fuels. Biden will be excellent for oil it will amplify the gains as he is going to smash US shale production and then start wars in the middle east or anywhere else that has a large reserve of the black stuff, just at a time when world consumption will be ramping up in a big way. Trump if he wins will have less impact as a catalyst, but regardless of who gets into the Whitehouse will be conducting more QE and spending it into the economy.

As I understand Trump is out? He conceded to Biden so the country can get on with things. I personally holding off oil at moment as think with push on green energy it’s going to drop more in the short term.

[KDave]

Trump has not conceded yet, he is fighting election fraud in the courts and his legal team now have thousands of sworn witnesses to election fraud, specifically surrounding mail in ballots, so that battle is not over yet. I wouldn't put money on anyone other than Biden though given how badly someone wanted him to be President, and i'm not talking about the US electorate  I would prefer Biden for the above reasons, he will put oil on steroids. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by KDave
speeling

[KDave]

Bookies odds have gone from 28-1 for Trump to be the next President to 15-1 today, that is due to his legal teams announcement regarding voter fraud in Pennsylvania. 

Oh well, peace in the middle east is looking more likely by the minute, as is a slightly lower 3 figure oil price this decade 

[HerefordBullyun]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

Bookies odds have gone from 28-1 for Trump to be the next President to 15-1 today, that is due to his legal teams announcement regarding voter fraud in Pennsylvania. 

Oh well, peace in the middle east is looking more likely by the minute, as is a slightly lower 3 figure oil price this decade 

Bidens war machine will be all over it. Find it ironic that Blair was given a job as middle East peace diplomat and Obama continued Bush's legacy in the middle East and smashed Libya and he got a Nobel peace prize nomination. 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

[HGr]

What is good value right now? Saved a nice bit this month, but have been caught out with timing! I will probably put more into SSP whatever happens. 

The only thing that is down for me at the minute is Novacyt. I'm a bit reluctant to buy any more, not sure anybody will care about tests once there is a vaccine.  

Better to wait and see in December? 

 

[HerefordBullyun]

15 minutes ago, HGr said:

What is good value right now? Saved a nice bit this month, but have been caught out with timing! I will probably put more into SSP whatever happens. 

The only thing that is down for me at the minute is Novacyt. I'm a bit reluctant to buy any more, not sure anybody will care about tests once there is a vaccine.  

Better to wait and see in December? 

 

MAG buy and holf

[Stacktastic]

16 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Completely agree mate as an ex soldier and been in warzones being on the receiving end of it. I have no interest in the military industrial complex especially when a majority of the conflicts were based on BS and a rich man's confidence trick.

 

13 hours ago, Silverman2U said:

As I understand Trump is out? He conceded to Biden so the country can get on with things. I personally holding off oil at moment as think with push on green energy it’s going to drop more in the short term.

Nope. He can still win and personally I think might. Negotiating and doing cases like this is what he does best. Thats the sort of guy I would want for a president, not some faccist lunatic. 

13 hours ago, KDave said:

I would prefer Biden for the above reasons, he will put oil on steroids. 

Hopefully, but only after another drop so I can buy back in LOL. 

13 hours ago, KDave said:

Bookies odds have gone from 28-1 for Trump to be the next President to 15-1 today,

I have a £50 bet at 10/1 I think - Im starting to think I might win it actually. 

10 hours ago, HGr said:

What is good value right now?

Maybe in a few weeks, assuming the prices keep plummeting - any miner, or PM stock. 
MAG as HB has said, GDXJ is another one I have, cant go wrong with the juniors for long term higher rewards.
Its gone down a lot since i bought it (8%), but im waiting for the bottom as I only put in £300. 

I am sticking to commodities and tangibles now as i just think being in the open market is too dangerous with all the money printing and possible social unrest. 
What looks good now, will look terrible if the markets collapse and dont recover for 2-3 years. Thats money I can afford to loose or have locked up. 

I shall probably just sit on some cash and wait, for something to present it self and learn to be a bit more patient.

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Stacktastic