Swing trading

[Kman]

18 minutes ago, Martlet said:

It can be. Often directors have shares as remuneration and will sell them to a schedule. Also not the "tax related" sales, were they sell shares to cover taxes of remuneration.  Selling $97m shares in two days itself seems a redflag on surface regardless of timing, however negligible market response to that suggests it was normal or even expected.  

You could say maybe Prescience Point Capital timed their release because of the selling, it gives their press release more weight 

But then I would guess there would be very serious ramifications for falsely reporting on corruption to benefit your short position?

I'm not sure which one is the bad guy in this  

[Martlet]

7 minutes ago, Kman said:

But then I would guess there would be very serious ramifications for falsely reporting on corruption to benefit your short position?

You'd think so, given so many rules around insider trading, but im not sure there's much specific legislation. Hence you have short sellers talk down a stock they've taken substantial positions against. 

[Kman]

1 hour ago, Martlet said:

You'd think so, given so many rules around insider trading, but im not sure there's much specific legislation. Hence you have short sellers talk down a stock they've taken substantial positions against. 

A weird one, manipulating the outcome of your own bet

Enphase are 12% premarket at the time of writing, might be a day to buy depending where it trends 

 

[Kman]

I now think this might be the way to trade after yesterday

split screen, bars, macd, fear/greed switching between minutes to give you a bigger overview, probably need to use 1-3 minutes if you want the best of the entry point

Then on the other side map out where it's trending down using minutes then watch it in 5-15 seconds and as long as it doesn't break out the wrong way and keeps momentum stay in - whilst consulting the other side to make sure the larger trend is still going in the direction you want or if it's running out of steam

As you can see everything sang together, roughly when to buy and sell

This was a sell position so wanted it down instead of up, inverse for a buy

[Kman]

I've been watching gold/bitcoin/silver today, they seemed like they were ready to break out upwards 

But in the past 20 minutes you can see a little volatility has entered the market, TVIX is up 5%, stocks and commodities starting to pull back

I wonder why? maybe it's nothing, maybe something is happening in the world hmm

I will watch on with interest

[HerefordBullyun]

12 minutes ago, Kman said:

I've been watching gold/bitcoin/silver today, they seemed like they were ready to break out upwards 

But in the past 20 minutes you can see a little volatility has entered the market, TVIX is up 5%, stocks and commodities starting to pull back

I wonder why? maybe it's nothing, maybe something is happening in the world hmm

I will watch on with interest

another fed bazooka will sort that out!

[Kman]

It might be because Apple have said they're closing stores

Or it might be because it's "quadruple witching day" which I'm going to need to research what that means lol 

[HerefordBullyun]

a lot of shares are down today.

[Kman]

I'm watching the tvix closely, ready to play it whichever way the momentum goes as long as it's strong enough

I'm expecting it to shoot up at some point but there's been no signal to enter, just been pretty sideways for the past hour, gone up +3 to 8% though

[HerefordBullyun]

Interesting read for you here @Kman

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-there-just-one-bull-market-short-and-fed-wont-let-you

[Kman]

Credit suisse are closing TVIX - https://www.etftrends.com/looking-into-the-tragedy-of-tvix/ 

• They’ll stop letting new shares be created on various dates (July 3rd for TVIX).
• They will delist the products on various dates (July 2nd for TVIX).
• THEY ARE NOT REDEEMING THE NOTES

 

[HerefordBullyun]

59 minutes ago, Kman said:

Credit suisse are closing TVIX - https://www.etftrends.com/looking-into-the-tragedy-of-tvix/ 

• They’ll stop letting new shares be created on various dates (July 3rd for TVIX).
• They will delist the products on various dates (July 2nd for TVIX).
• THEY ARE NOT REDEEMING THE NOTES

 

Guess you will have to go to another plan @Kman

[Kman]

29 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Guess you will have to go another plan @Kman

Yes  

There's other volatility things to trade like VXX but I will have to look into exactly how they work

Even if I don't end anything with volatility my experience with TVIX has been good, I've learned about trends/resistances, supports etc last few days and that's helpful to know for just general stocks

Before I just assumed stock prices were random with how they moved, could just go anywhere, no real rhyme or reason why they might finish a day at one price or another 

I look at Carnival stock now which seemed so all over the place but see it's been trending up since April, there were almost magnetic resistances/supports at $12, $14 and $17

That today it's in danger atm of losing it's trend up and then who knows where it will go after that

Maybe if it keeps in this trend it would be a good buy since it's hugging the bottom, albeit risky 

 

 

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, Kman said:

Yes  

There's other volatility things to trade like VXX but I will have to look into exactly how they work

Even if I don't end anything with volatility my experience with TVIX has been good, I've learned about trends/resistances, supports etc last few days and that's helpful to know for just general stocks

Before I was just assumed stock prices were random with how the moved, could just go anywhere, no real rhyme or reason

I look at Carnival stock now which seemed so all over the place but see it's been trending up since April, there were almost magnetic resistances/supports at $12, $14 and $17

That today it's in danger atm of losing it's trend up and then who knows where it will go after that

Maybe if it keeps in this trend it would be a good buy since it's hugging the bottom, albeit risky 

 

 

Good luck mate but i am sticking with greatland if robert kisoayki buys miner stocks so do I!

[sovereignsteve]

On 18/06/2020 at 14:06, Kman said:

A weird one, manipulating the outcome of your own bet

but aren't all markets manipulated by definition?

[Kman]

So I decided to put what I learned from TVIX and try something new - leveraging gold

An example would be Friday

There's support/resistance levels at 1795, 800 and 810. See image below

Using moving averages, you watch for to move above the 9 day red line, then you wait for it to break the $1800 resistance, if it does (which it did) then that's a clear buy, it shouldn't come back below 1800 immediately because that's now a support

It got to $1810, it couldn't break the 10 resistance and started to come back down, it started to turn on the macd, dropped below the red 9 day line, sell

If you do 20x leverage every $1 move is 1.1% of your money

You probably want to do a stop loss $1-3 under your start point where resistance is, depending how conservative you want to be, $1798.2 maybe 

You can see at 6pm the day before it broke 1800 got to 1804 and gave up but that's ok, you would have sold when it dipped below the red line and not lost anything, made 1% or so 

 

The dream would be to buy it breaking $1800 and it go on the strong run to $1900 and make 110% but it's already been up and down through $1800 3 times and gone back under so who knows 

But also those 3 times you would have made maybe 15% or so on your money combined

[Kman]

I decided to put this into practice

I bought when it got above $1800 last night and all the technicals looked good mentioned above

It's $350 20x leverage 

I'm currently $23  up at the time of writing at 1807

My plan is to reevaluate at $1810, see if it gets rejected -  if it drops back down and I get stopped lossed out so be it, I will lose $11

I'm hoping it will get up to $1810, break it and find support there, or maybe up to $1820 which will be $70 is up 

 

[Kman]

I've given up on it, I gave it 3 hours to break $1810 but it seems to be pulling back now

Keep my 7% and wait to see what it does next

Hopefully back to $1800, support, start again 

Made 7.24% which  only = $25.96 but better than a slap in the face 

 

[Kman]

I bought both gold and silver this morning when gold broke above $1800 and silver was sitting on support at $19; Silver you can only 10x leverage on etoro on a bronze account and the buy/sell is a bit much, probably not good to trade really, well not in a day anyway

Gold again couldn't break $1810 and silver seems to be hitting resistance at $19.35 so I've sold

I would have held on to them overnight I'm sure they will be fine but I can't be bothered to go to sleep and wake up in the middle of the night thinking I need to check gold and silver prices - it's not worth it for these type of amounts

It got a bit ropey during the day, I probably should have sold from a purely technical  point of view but I'm so bullish on pms atm I didn't have much fear they would get sucked down much or not bounce back quickly. 

 

 

I should have bought on the first pink, sold on the blue when it broke down under $1800, instead I bought on the first pink sold on the second blue 

[Kman]

Gold is any easy thing to trade atm, buy 1796-1800 sell close to 1810 if it can't break it 

I probably sold a little early today, it looked like it was about to turn but oh well

 

[Kman]

I thought I'd give a bit more a detailed explanation I've what I've done the past week, I don't think anyone's particularly interested but that's ok

Gold has support at $1796 and resistance at $1810 and has been bouncing between those points

So I've been buying at $1800  ish then selling at $1810 on 20x leverage - every $1 gold goes up is about 1.1% profit

Originally I was waiting for gold to break above $1800 again before buying but on the last trade I've learned that wasn't necessary 

 

What I've said so far is a bit of a simplified version here are more details

I have support/resistance levels drawn in at 1796 1800 1804 1810 and 1813

I have simple moving averages turned on,  red: 9 days, purple: 20 days and green: 100 days

You wait to buy after the price has come down to a candle above over the red line

You close when a candle sits on the red/purple line depending on preference, probably better purple gives it more room to breath

Or you can ignore thelines if the candles aren't falling beneath a support level, wait to see if the price falls beneath that then sell 

So basically you're using a combination of knowledge of resistance/support levels and moving day averages to figure out where's a good spot to buy and sell

I switch between 3-15 minute time frames to try and get a clearer picture of what's happening, especially the 3 minutes when it's around a support/resistance level to see if it breaks it either way

^ of course you would have already established the larger trend looking at 4 hours, days, weeks, which obviously shows gold is on a strong uptrend,

At some point it's going to break $1810 properly and go to $1820-40 and that will be a very good profit if you started around $1800

In the short term it could also drop to $1775 which is a strong support level before going up again, if you buy at around $1796 at 20x leverage then your 50% stop loss you can't change (on etoro anyway) will be around $1752 which seems very safe number gold shouldn't touch again (famous last word) 

So you could wait and hold as it drops and if you bought at 1796 instead of selling and losing 1.1% for every dollar it dropped and wait for it to come back up and you should be pretty safe, or you could set a stop loss around $1790 and take a hit 

If gold does go to $1775, finds strong support there and starts to rise again then a leveraged buy around that area held for a few weeks would be very profitable 

[47Ag79Au78Pt]

I’ve been reading this topic with a mixture of awe, wonder and confusion. I’m not a banker or economist but I’m really interested in @vand ‘s comments. Is it a realistic proposition for a non-finance trained person, like me, to learn some recognised and/or sensible  trading strategies and with time and patience and strategic discipline, manage a steady, incremental growth.... or would it be like sitting a 12 year old at the roulette table and asking him/her to play the odds?  I get the sense that if I were in the USA, the answer would be yes as I’ve heard many more people actively engage in this sort of thing.

Short of wading through hours of YouTube videos trying to gauge reliability/trustworthiness, or doing a MBA, where would be a good place to start to learn.... the junior slopes, so to speak. 

Many thanks. 

[Kman]

3 hours ago, 47Ag79Au78Pt said:

I’ve been reading this topic with a mixture of awe, wonder and confusion. I’m not a banker or economist but I’m really interested in @vand ‘s comments

Well for what my opinion is worth, which isn't too much since I only started learning about stocks this year, rereading what Vand said I don't agree with quite a bit of it but I also don't agree with half of what I said now either now I've learned more 

Vand ~ "Personally I think everyone should concentrate on building a core portfolio first before delving into advanced trading strategies."

Generally I actually think it's easier to swing trade than it is to long term invest 

To long term invest you should really know everything you can about an industry and where it's headed, the companies in it, which ones are safest  vs which have the most potential growth opportunities,  how to analyse their balance sheets etc 

Say you want to invest in oil like KDave, how much is there to know about the oil industry? where is it headed in the next 5-10 years?

To swing trade you just need to know trends, support/resistance levels, how to use some indicators and why the stock/commodity is going up or down

Trading gold has been fairly easy I have to say, much better than tvix; I haven't nearly made as much as I should out of it but that's ok, I'm learning and made a little money as I go. I'm having to wait for it calm down a bit before I try and trade it again

All that being said, I think one of the safest and best investments atm is just a silver etf for a couple years, I think that will be an easy 75%+ return. I'm personally waiting for silver to pull back 3-5% though before putting more money in

Youtube channels I like about stocks, who have different mindsets and approaches

Financial education - long term investor - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnMn36GT_H0X-w5_ckLtlgQ

Conquer Trading and Investing - trading and forex type videos https://www.youtube.com/c/ConquerTrading/videos

J Bravo - swing trading/general current investing news https://www.youtube.com/user/williamstenzel

Jerry Romine - good videos about how to analyse and compare balance sheets https://www.youtube.com/c/JerryRomineEntrepreneurAbroad/videos

I don't know anything but I know way more than I did in March and I will continue to learn

[Kman]

I opened a  $350 10x leveraged on silver when it broke $24

Just going to let it run I think until the black twenty day line catches up with it

Might change my stop loss to just under $24.50 if it goes upwards enough to give it some breathing room 

Edit> Got Stop lossed out, oh well will be another time to play it 

[Kman]

I've decided to play silver differently

I set an order @ 24.01 for $1000 5x leverage which got fulfilled earlier

Smaller leverage means the -50% forced stop loss is pretty roomy at $21.61 - there's four levels of support below my current price so I think it's comfortable 

If silver hits $26 again I will make $414; 26 seems way more likely than 21.61 but if silver does drop that low that wouldn't be such a bad thing, I'd lose $500 but $21.61 would be a gift to buy at

What I'm expecting to happen is it to consolidate between 24-24.5 (drawn purple) before breaking out upwards again. Maybe it will go as low as 23.70 but I think that's the bottom.