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Posted (edited)

The TVIX basically moves due to volatility in the market, more volatility the more it goes up

In times of crashes (like in March) or sell offs it jumps up huge, from $30 in Feb up to $970 at the peak in March - but it also collapses back down quickly

tvixchart.thumb.jpg.6c8f17471886b8d25f8bdd876df0d486.jpg

 

I'd like to be able to time when to buy in and buy out, thankfully there's the MACD crossover to give those potential signals

When they lines part (image below) it's time to buy, when the start to converge back together it's time to sell

The only problem I'm having atm is figuring out what time frame to use or if it's best to toggle between them to get a clearer picture

Looking at Thursday, July 11th setting it to 30 minutes you would have had a clear signal to buy at 3:30pm and when the lines start to come back together you would have sold at "sell maybe" 10% up or at the sell 20-25% up

buysell.thumb.png.065cc74e8067ee31bff0c91753adc3e6.png

 

Or maybe you could have done it on the 1 hour which would have shown a buy signal at 4:30-5:30pm and sell at the close at around 20% up

 

1hr.thumb.png.3a051c2c2de166b40a17c00e51a6edc5.png

 

The problem with the 1 hour and 30 minute time frames is there's way too long to wait for the signal to sell, it could happen 20 minutes before the chart updates and then you're down 5-10%

So maybe you need to use shorter time frames for signals to sell but the trouble is they can look vastly different

Looking at the 5 minute chart of the day, despite it going up 38% from open to close there were no clear entry points until late in the day and you would have made 10%

You could have gone between 5-6pm but that didn't look like the most comfortable gap 

 

5min.thumb.png.f225fd432c5d9cf37c46af591300dfba.png

 

 

Another signal we could look out for apart from simply divergence is the angle up, obviously the closer to 90* the more positive it is (angles are relative to the interval you set the chart to, as well as how zoomed in you are)

This example is from May using 30m, If you notice the macd lines parting below as a signal to buy along with the strong 60 degree angle (pink arrow) you would have an amazing buy there making 20% on whatever you put in

However on the next signal to buy with the purple arrows, it's a weaker 40 degrees and a sideways movement in price mostly, other than a short sharp up

 

angle.thumb.png.b22049a79d66fcd610f035ce01dfecdb.png 

 

What I need to do now is look through TVIX charts on 30 minutes and and find if a clear divergence with a 60*+ angle has ever resulted in a wrong signal to buy and a loss of money, if so I might have to rethink this

But at the moment the winning formula without much risk seems to be: 30 minutes chart, clear divergence, 60*+ angle up 

With the future so uncertain and volatility likely I think this could be used for 20% daily profit on multiple occasions

Thoughts?

+ I'm not advising anyone else do this, it's gambling 

+ if I find an occasions where the formula lost money I will update 

Edit> I was wrong here, I put you would sell when the market was closed, you would have had to have sold at 8:30 or risk whatever happens in between, so you would have sold at 37% up

Edited by Kman

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I recommend Brent Osachoff's VTS youtube channel for learning about volatility trading.

Personally I think everyone should concentrate on building a core portfolio first before delving into advanced trading strategies. Regardless of how good it may appear, there is no substitute for discipline and experience. Those seeking some holy grail in trading without also having some core long term slow and steady wealth accumulation strategy likely lack the discipline required to succeed and so will like fail with any system.

 

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1 hour ago, vand said:

I recommend Brent Osachoff's VTS youtube channel for learning about volatility trading.

Personally I think everyone should concentrate on building a core portfolio first before delving into advanced trading strategies. Regardless of how good it may appear, there is no substitute for discipline and experience. Those seeking some holy grail in trading without also having some core long term slow and steady wealth accumulation strategy likely lack the discipline required to succeed and so will like fail with any system.

Thanks I will check that out

I feel like I am being disciplined atm not buying any stocks and sitting out

I told myself wait to see how lockdown restrictions easing effects corona cases, wait to see how Q2 results play out; maybe they wouldn't effect the whole market too much but if any individual companies are doing much worse than expected there may be opportunities 

Up until Thursday stocks I was watching were rising up and up,  it was hard to say nope don't get sucked in, wait

With everything going on in the world this could be a rare year of volatility, I'm sure using technical analysis there will be clear entry/exit points for the TVIX; whether I've yet worked out those points or fully grasp all the signals I need to is certainly up for debate but I do believe they're there and I don't think it will be too complicated


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Posted (edited)

Another signal I was thinking about is using 30 minutes as a broader signal to buy but then using 5 minutes to track it's progression up, as long as it doesn't break the lower line stay in

If you did that on July 11th you would have bought at 3pm or 3:30 depending how sure you want to be before entering, then held all day selling at market close. 3pm 40% | 3:30 35%

Again though I need to check if this is ever wrong, if it is then it's not much good

ps.  was wrong above, I said you would have closed when the market is closed which obviously isn't possible, you would have had to have sold before 9pm or risk TVIX doing whatever is was going to do in the meantime before the market opens and that's too dangerous for any meaningful amount of money

this chart is July 11th and 12th on 5 minutes

5minline.png.b26e1fb09f92138ff3d64c121ad8e24f.png

 

Edited by Kman

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Posted (edited)

TVIX is up 19% today premarket

Going to look at the charts after market open

Will try and wait till between 15:00-15:30 to make sure everything is trending in the right direction and things haven't run out of steam

If the right signals are there to enter, depending how positive they are and how brave I'm feeling I will put in $500-1000

Will update later and say what I've done and then if I have put money in a follow up post sometime before the end of the day how much money I've lost 😛

Edited by Kman

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Kman said:

Will try and wait till between 15:00-15:30 to make sure everything is trending in the right direction and things haven't run out of steam

Ran out of steam, signals were the opposite of buy for the first 30 minutes

Might change sometime during the day but for now nope 

 

Edited by Kman

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On 13/06/2020 at 15:11, Kman said:

However on the next signal to buy with the purple arrows, it's a weaker 40 degrees and a sideways movement in price mostly, other than a short sharp up

If I was trading this security I would buy into the MACD Crossover at 3/4.

Out of interest, @Kman, why do you trade expensive priced stocks? It gives you deficient buying power? Or, unless you are a millionaire trading with a large account


"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. But if you want to continue as the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money and to control credit."

Sir Josiah Stamp, Director of the Bank of England

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

If I was trading this security I would buy into the MACD Crossover at 3/4.

Out of interest, @Kman, why do you trade expensive priced stocks? It gives you deficient buying power? Or, unless you are a millionaire trading with a large account

This is the only thing I know that moves so much 

Are there other things that can consistently move in such big swings?

Edited by Kman

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2 minutes ago, Kman said:

This is the only only thing I know that moves so much 

Are there other things that can consistently move in such big swings?

I assume you are mostly attracted to volume? Given the attraction on moves?

From what I know, most volume traders will look for premarket securities that have moved either up/down by 5% (some even 8% depending on the traders personality). Then take long positions on the pullback (if heading upwards) or short on the upside (if heading downwards).

Personally, I mostly short OTCs (for buying power) while analyse the fundamentals - free cash flow/FCF is the most important imo.

Only focusing on technical analysis has brought painful experiences but now I use both as it maintains the discipline and confidence needed.


"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. But if you want to continue as the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money and to control credit."

Sir Josiah Stamp, Director of the Bank of England

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1 minute ago, Minimalist said:

I assume you are mostly attracted to volume? Given the attraction on moves?

From what I know, most volume traders will look for premarket securities that have moved either up/down by 5% (some even 8% depending on the traders personality). Then take long positions on the pullback (if heading upwards) or short on the upside (if heading downwards).

Personally, I mostly short OTCs (for buying power) while analyse the fundamentals - free cash flow/FCF is the most important imo.

Only focusing on technical analysis has brought painful experiences but now I use both as it maintains the discipline and confidence needed.

I'm attracted to 20-40% in a day

At the moment, as best I can tell, if the technical signals are there it seems like a very safe bet 

The only issue is waiting, before July 11th the only super clear day to jump in was In May 12/13th

I don't know what OTCs are?

41 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

why do you trade expensive priced stocks? It gives you deficient buying power? Or, unless you are a millionaire trading with a large account

Might be a dumb question but if you buy $500 worth of something and get 100 or 2, if you get a 20% return you get a 20% return? 


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21 minutes ago, Kman said:

I'm attracted to 20-40% in a day

At the moment, as best I can tell, if the technical signals are there it seems like a very safe bet 

The only issue is waiting, before July 11th the only super clear day to jump in was In May 12/13th

I don't know what OTCs are?

Is this from intraday perspective or premarket moves at 20% minimum?

I believe that is fair, the technical side is over 55% correct - In my experience the higher the time frame the easier (Daily and upwards) it is to assume price action and trend

OTCs; Over-the-counter stocks/OTC Markets; Most stocks are under $10 to trade and most of them are easy shorts (I think about 15,000 stocks are currently under $10). With this you get great buying power if you trade with a small to medium sized account.

21 minutes ago, Kman said:

Might be a dumb question but if you buy $500 worth of something and get 100 or 2, if you get a 20% return you get a 20% return? 

True, however it purely depends on the amount of shares you buy. More shares - the more gains (and loses).


"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. But if you want to continue as the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money and to control credit."

Sir Josiah Stamp, Director of the Bank of England

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kman said:

Might be a dumb question but if you buy $500 worth of something and get 100 or 2, if you get a 20% return you get a 20% return? 

Not a dumb question, very sensible observation that price movement occurs regardless how many share you hold.  Price has a factor with real holdings as you cant divide shares, so a very large price may limit how many you can hold.  With modern platforms offering fractional shares its irrelevant. 

OTC over the counter is off exchange, unregulated trades usually of small caps, also covers peer to peer large trades (where the sinister sounding "dark pools" come in).  We dont really do much OTC in UK because AIM exchange gives a lower regulation market.  

Trading volatility on its own with the clear signal you are looking for is going limit the number of opportunities. They just dont come up that often.  The smaller the time frame the smaller the target gains should be.  The trick is tight risk management to cut losing position and make things up on large wins.  And discipline, lots of discipline.  This is why most most traders lose most trades, if it were easy everyone could do it.  

Edited by Martlet

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The lure of trading instruments that go up and down like a yo yo is likely to be long term detrimental to wealth building.

Remember that a 50% fall requires a 100% gain to get back to even. A 80% fall requires a 400% climb back to even. You can seemingly trip along happily with a high win rate of a few percentage points each time, but a big loss erases all those gains and then some.  Winning traders are not defined by their win rate, and there is even evidence to suggest that there is a mild negative correlation between win rate and long term success (translation = picking up pennies in front of a steamroller).

I get the lure of a 400% daily return, but that comes hand in hand with the daily risk of a complete wipeout of your account too. Trading these instruments will severely stress test your discipline, your risk control and ability to trade well (cut losses, let winners run).

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, vand said:

I get the lure of a 400% daily return, but that comes hand in hand with the daily risk of a complete wipeout of your account too.

You shouldn't lose more than 10% at worst as long as you're watching it

This is July 11th, use the signals to buy, trend where the 5 minutes is going, as long as it doesn't break significantly below the bottom stay in

chart1.thumb.png.a42fbae53d012c092cc6d7394bc2958d.png

 

The only point you would have thought about selling was here, if it broke the bottom then trended downwards, you would have said ok this isn't what I thought it was and sold 

 

sell.thumb.png.6a3afc59342884a469aefaafa3dcbdfb.png

 

As long as it doesn't lose steam as soon as you buy in you shouldn't lose any money because you should have gotten a 3%+ buffer 

You could toggle between 5-15-30 second macd as a timer to buy in on a little upswing to try and get that buffer; If you're right and things are trending as strongly upwards as you're hoping that shouldn't be too much of a problem 

Basically you wouldn't be putting a lump sum in there and closing your eyes and hoping for the best for the rest of the day

Edited by Kman

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Can you spread bet this index?

What % of your trading pot are you planning on risking per trade?

Money management is key in any trading venture. Don't try to find a method that will make you rich quickly, they don't exist. Successful trading is a slow process, a marathon rather than a sprint. It's no surprise that every spread betting company reports around 75% of all retail traders lose money.

Risk a small proportion (1 - 5%) of your bank per trade and have a reward:risk  ratio of greater than 1. You only need a success rate of greater than 50% to make money.


Happy to receive feedback on all my trades. If anyone wants feedback from me, just say the word.

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Also backtest as much as you can once you've decided on your trading criteria but then trade live using a demo account. This is the only way to see what your real world performance will be.


Happy to receive feedback on all my trades. If anyone wants feedback from me, just say the word.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sovereignsteve said:

Can you spread bet this index?

What % of your trading pot are you planning on risking per trade?

Money management is key in any trading venture. Don't try to find a method that will make you rich quickly, they don't exist. Successful trading is a slow process, a marathon rather than a sprint. It's no surprise that every spread betting company reports around 75% of all retail traders lose money.

Risk a small proportion (1 - 5%) of your bank per trade and have a reward:risk  ratio of greater than 1. You only need a success rate of greater than 50% to make money.

Oh this isn't a get rich quick scheme

This is a take advantage of a safe bet as and when it presents itself scheme

Need the stock market to go down, can't say when that will happen or how often that will happen but you would think with everything going on in the world it will happen more this year than previous ones

The success rate of this should be way closer to 100% than 50, but it's not something that presents itself everyday, need big down days in the market which have been rare enough for the past decade, 2020 should have more

I just quickly looked through 2019 (it's a lot of zooming in and out and hard on the old eyes and brain) and on a handful of days maybe you could have made 10-15% in a day but nothing like the few 40% days you could have had already this year

As said above you wouldn't leave your money in to go down, you would plot out where you would pull money out, shouldn't lose more than 10% 

I guess the site could break and not let you close the trade, that wouldn't be good, but you still shouldn't be able to lose 100%

This isn't something you can paper trade really because it's too rare

Better to look through history learn from that, work out signals/guidelines then use them against historic days in which those signals presented themselves  and look where the price went 

The signals I've outlined above, large uncoupling of the 30 minutes macd + strong upwards angle, matched with a 5 minute price trending upwards confirming it, timing entry on a smaller uptick toggling 5-30 second macd  to give a small % breathing room

It looks like an easy recipe for success, albeit rare  

Edited by Kman

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Posted (edited)

Had an interesting day today, learned a lot

I'd like to invest in some renewable energy companies so I have a watchlist

I noticed today Enphase (solar company) were down 5%, looked again not long later and it was down 12%

Found the news why, a company called Prescience Point Capital Management released a statement saying Enphase were cooking their books and making up false profits

So knowing that and with the price still trending downwards, the 30 minute macd looking good, I mapped out the trend downwards and I bought in with a sell position for $500 

Now this was dumb, it broke out of the trend within minutes and so I sold 

badbuy.thumb.png.40fb7631d8c0b5f29861b951fadfbfc0.png

 

What I should have done was consulted the 3 or 5 minute macd, the 30 minutes is too slow and broad. That would have told me my entry point was dumb, it was a time to wait and see where it would go next, not enter

Below is what the full day looked like on 3 minutes and where you could have bought and sold using 3 minute macd

I had a second go that went pretty perfect, I saw the trend in price shift and start going downwards again, I mapped it out with 5 minutes chart points then watched it on 15 seconds, I used the 3 minute macd as the signal to buy and closed when it lost momentum and broke up out of the trend down and also the 3 minute macd agreed 

This was the full day and if you were on it from the get go the two pink periods you could have traded 

Of the 26% day down you could have safely made about 17% of it 

enphase.thumb.png.0792c380fed26928696420c21765948c.png

This was how I plotted out the trend down and sold when it broke out 

buysell1.thumb.png.216f0267cb434fda9b2c9c7c6172e37c.png

enphase1.thumb.png.9df2f8d58213101af587fef3b40a783f.png


Made me appreciate it's easy to look at a day and go "oh you could have made 40% this day" but actually staying in all day is tough

Made me realise 3-5 minutes macd is better to pick out an entry point

Didn't make much money but learned a lot 

Edited by Kman

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Posted (edited)

@Kman one stock thats currently cheap and apparently well backed is a penny stock that could be a player in the future is TRIG Renewables infastructure. I have been told to buy and hold for a long time. But I am not sure if its for you as you seem more of active trader than me. But if there is portfolio of stocks that you are willing to hold for longish time - this could be one of them.

Edited by HerefordBullyun

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2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

@Kman one stock thats currently cheap and apparently well backed is a penny stock that could be a player in the future is TRIG Renewables infastructure. I have been told to buy and hold for a long time. But I am not sure if its for you as you seem more of active trader than me. But if there is portfolio of stocks that you are willing to hold for longish time - this could be one of them.

I'm not trying to be active :(I just wanted to know how to profit from a stock market crash should it come so thought I'd learn signals for TVIX

Just so happened the Enphase thing fell in my lap today because I had been watching them anyway

 

 

 


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9 minutes ago, Kman said:

I'm not trying to be active :(I just wanted to know how to profit from a stock market crash should it come so thought I'd learn signals for TVIX

Just so happened the Enphase thing fell in my lap today because I had been watching them anyway

 

 

 

Well regarding predicting the crash - its really hard to say. When you have the fed continually re pumping money into Wall street its going to keep on pushing up stocks, but thats does create the bigger bubble. Like when people are buying Hertz stock when they are bankrupt but been saved by the fed is madness. It could be tomrrow it could next year it could be 5 years maybe 10. When the poo really hits the fans is the loss of faith in currency happens, is when we'll be glad we stacked! Shorting and buy stocks that short the market is a niche old game mate. But remember this regardless of how bad the crash is, there are going to be surviors in the market, regardless. And those who do survive will prosper the most, going forward. 


Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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1 minute ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Well regarding predicting the crash - its really hard to say. When you have the fed continually re pumping money into Wall street its going to keep on pushing up stocks, but thats does create the bigger bubble. Like when people are buying Hertz stock when they are bankrupt but been saved by the fed is madness. It could be tomrrow it could next year it could be 5 years maybe 10. When the poo really hits the fans is the loss of faith in currency happens, is when we'll be glad we stacked! Shorting and buy stocks that short the market is a niche old game mate. But remember this regardless of how bad the crash is, there are going to be surviors in the market, regardless. And those who do survive will prosper the most, going forward. 

My thinking is that should a situation present itself I'd like to know what to do to take advantage of it

I didn't really profit from March crash because I didn't know anything about the stock market at the time, that was a shame

But also there doesn't need to be a full crash, a pullback is pretty big, S&P only went down 6.5% July 11th but TVIX went up 65%

In an ideal world if there was a crash I'd profit using TVIX then use the money to buy shares or PMs/Bitcoin

Liquidity isn't good in a recession so I don't think we will have to worry about inflation or lack of faith in currency for years yet; it's more likely people will be desperate for cash sadly 

 

 


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1 minute ago, Kman said:

My thinking is that should a situation present itself I'd like to know what to do to take advantage of it

I didn't really profit from March crash because I didn't know anything about the stock market at the time, that was a shame

But also there doesn't need to be a full crash, a pullback is pretty big, S&P only went down 6.5% July 11th but TVIX went up 65%

In an ideal world if there was a crash I'd profit using TVIX then use the money to buy shares or PMs/Bitcoin

Liquidity isn't good in a recession so I don't think we will have to worry about inflation or lack of faith in currency for years yet; it's more likely people will be desperate for cash sadly 

 

 

Like your strategy wish you luck!


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Be interesting to watch Enphase now

If the fraud claims are unfounded (they were released by a company shorting them) then $40 seems like a good price to get in on

They called fraud in 2018 but nothing seems to have come from that

But then we have the director selling large amount of shares, is that normal?

enphasesell.thumb.png.339ed7804db9c275965d8be6a17656fb.png


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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Kman said:

But then we have the director selling large amount of shares, is that normal?

It can be. Often directors have shares as remuneration and will sell them to a schedule. Also note the "tax related" sales, were they sell shares to cover taxes of remuneration.  Selling $97m shares in two days itself seems a red flag on surface regardless of timing, however negligible market response to that suggests it was normal or even expected.  

Edited by Martlet

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