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Normal. Happened in 2008 and post.
 

Also, it can take years to realise the asset as need to find a buyer. The Express Building in Ancoats, Manchester sat empty for years and years when Friends Life moves down South. 

The fiat is tied up in the property within the property fund (they do have an element of cash for normal/small sales requests).  So even if you instructed them to sell today and they accepted, you could be waiting years.

Another reason why general investment funds have cash too. 


Decus et tutamen (an ornament and a safeguard)

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A bit like a With Profits firm when everyone wants their money out, an MVA reduction is applied when markets crash otherwise it would affect those who wish to stay invested long term and are not speculating. 


Decus et tutamen (an ornament and a safeguard)

YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OjxoCIsDbMgx7MM_l4CmA

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With many people not being about to afford rents or mortgage payments even before furlough turns into the redundancy Avalanche.

how much will the property market crash next few years?

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1 hour ago, Rocky2000 said:

What about now that renter who don’t pay can’t be kicked out until September 

 

 

Even after September it will take 6-9 months to evict them. So year without rent income, interesting.

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1 hour ago, Rocky2000 said:

With many people not being about to afford rents or mortgage payments even before furlough turns into the redundancy Avalanche.

how much will the property market crash next few years?

Looking at last crisis about 4-5 year and about 30% down, depends on location.

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I’ve three sets of different friends recently who were looking to buy an inner city flat are now are looking at suburbs- house with a garden. As. @Michal suggests it’ll probably vary depending on location and property type.

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The banks will be reluctant to call in their loans on the properties if the borrower is unable to pay as this would then become the banks problem. Banks don't like getting their grubby paws dirty.💸💸

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4 hours ago, Michal said:

Looking at last crisis about 4-5 year and about 30% down, depends on location.

IMHO - the time factor could well be more like 5-10 years and 45/50% down!

Reasons - - - >>   last crisis is/was a quarter or less of what IMHO is about to "RAIN" down! - - NO one with "CURRENCY" available to purchase! 

I'm Gutted! 😏😒

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Just now, 5huggy said:

IMHO - the time factor could well be more like 5-10 years and 45/50% down!

Reasons - - - >>   last crisis is/was a quarter or less of what IMHO is about to "RAIN" down! - - NO one with "CURRENCY" available to purchase! 

I'm Gutted! 😏😒

Agree, but under one condition: They will not manage to print it out this time. But in that case we are facing new monetary paradigm and assets like houses could go to 10% in value in undesired areas and can do 200-300% in big city, but who know. Place where people have opportunities and want to live in go up in price in long term.

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Think prices in London will drop at least by 50% over the next 1-2 years. Maybe we'll see the same as in Japan where real estate prices never recovered? Oh well.. what do I know. But I would love to buy a house on the countryside in Sussex at some point... at a fraction of the current prices of course.

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7 hours ago, Rocky2000 said:

With many people not being about to afford rents or mortgage payments even before furlough turns into the redundancy Avalanche.

how much will the property market crash next few years?

Topic merged with pre existing topic 


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How much is pretty impossible to say and I agree with others that it will depend on where. One thing I'm curious about is how many who run buy to let businnesses or have just a couple buy to let properties as a side business are going to want to stay in that busiess after this?

Also another facet to consider beyond people just not being able to pay their rent/mortgages...   with a lot of businesses now seeing how viable it is to have employees working from home - how will that affect prices especially in high demand areas like London and other cities throughout the UK? I can't imagine anyone choosing the cramped overpriced flat to be close to work when you can suddenly work from anywhere. Will there be a shift with values lost in the cities and towns across the coutry and perhaps more demand for other properties in quieter locations where there is still good access to shops/broadband?

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14 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

How much is pretty impossible to say and I agree with others that it will depend on where. One thing I'm curious about is how many who run buy to let businnesses or have just a couple buy to let properties as a side business are going to want to stay in that busiess after this?

Also another facet to consider beyond people just not being able to pay their rent/mortgages...   with a lot of businesses now seeing how viable it is to have employees working from home - how will that affect prices especially in high demand areas like London and other cities throughout the UK? I can't imagine anyone choosing the cramped overpriced flat to be close to work when you can suddenly work from anywhere. Will there be a shift with values lost in the cities and towns across the coutry and perhaps more demand for other properties in quieter locations where there is still good access to shops/broadband?

For all the talk of a new paradigm in business location, its too early to really say what effect will be.  The option to work from home isn't that new, the mental block may have gone for those that have resisted, there are good reasons to be in an office.  Ad-hoc chats, formal meetings, networking are simply better in the office. On that last point, there is activity out of the office to consider. My company rejected a move to cheaper premises some years ago because they didn't want to be on an industrial estate, the social side of being in central London was too big a positive. 

In meetings people express desire to get back into the office because small/noisy/too quite homes aren't suited to work.  I expect change to smaller or more flexible offices with more flexibility on work from home, but office will remain the focus. Senior managers will want to be there and aspiring managers will want to be were they are. For many, being in a city setting is part of living, they dont want to live in the country for now, that's later in life.  That's why many people pay through the nose for pokey flats in backwaters of London in the first place, shorter commute and short ride home late in the evening. 

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54 minutes ago, Martlet said:

For all the talk of a new paradigm in business location, its too early to really say what effect will be.

I do agree. I think human behaviour is far harder to change than people want to believe but there is a lot of talk about it and a lot of businesses which have said they're happy to move with this model of people working from home in the future. It will be interesting to see how much of that plays out especially if there is a "second wave" and this becomes a bigger issue than it is already.

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10 hours ago, Michal said:

Even after September it will take 6-9 months to evict them. So year without rent income, interesting.

Minimum 

 

could the no eviction process start date be postponed yet again? Yes very likely if 2nd wave

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Seriously, GoldenPhil... nothing would please me more than to see home prices 30% cheaper.. just don't hold your breath. It is the novice investor who keeps thinking that there is a crash around the corner in every market he's interested in.  Serious crashes are once a generation events. Most people are best served just meeting the market and getting on with their life.

 

 

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5 hours ago, StackerCollector said:

Think prices in London will drop at least by 50% over the next 1-2 years. Maybe we'll see the same as in Japan where real estate prices never recovered? Oh well.. what do I know. But I would love to buy a house on the countryside in Sussex at some point... at a fraction of the current prices of course.

Very aggressive prediction there

 

i agree with 50% correction in London but think it will take several years

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Just now, vand said:

Seriously, GoldenPhil... nothing would please me more than to see home prices 30% cheaper.. just don't hold your breath. It is the novice investor who keeps thinking that there is a crash around the corner in every market he's interested in.  Serious crashes are once a generation events. Most people are best served just meeting the market and getting on with their life.

 

 

And don’t you think this is the once in a generation serious crash we are facing right now

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5 minutes ago, vand said:

Seriously, GoldenPhil... nothing would please me more than to see home prices 30% cheaper.. just don't hold your breath. It is the novice investor who keeps thinking that there is a crash around the corner in every market he's interested in.  Serious crashes are once a generation events. Most people are best served just meeting the market and getting on with their life.

 

 

There speaketh the wise man

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10 minutes ago, Rocky2000 said:

Very aggressive prediction there

 

i agree with 50% correction in London but think it will take several years

I work on a construction site in London, 1 bedroom apartments the size of a closet, asking price 300k+. For the past 6 months sales have been very low including the larger apartments. These insane prices can't hold forever. 

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2 hours ago, Rocky2000 said:

And don’t you think this is the once in a generation serious crash we are facing right now

Not without a considerable spike in interest rates to create a large pool of forced sellers.

 

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