FTSE big crash

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

Depends on whether the DOW falls from its current price within the next 6 months 

Just a piece of friendly advice @GoldenPhil. I am going to give you a scenario, that you may wish to be mindful of, but it is exactly the reason why I dont play in the markets.

What if a second wave of COVID19 comes in and the fed have to continue to bail out wall st with QE, which would keep the stocks from falling? I get the scenario that there is the herd immuunity that it will pass, but there is no credible evidence that everyone has been exposed or immune to it, we dont really know if its a true peak of epedemic or not.

it maybe something to bear in mind doing a long term projected short?  Im no expert - but it would be something Id be mindful if I was to go short.

[vand]

4 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

Thank you that would mean so much to me 

You competition is not me.

Your competition is  BridgeWater. Your competition is the Quants and the HFT algos.

You competition is  Soros, Drunkenmiller and the Medallion Fund.

 

Against such adversaries, what weapons do you have to try to take their money? A few charts, some gut feeling and a wonderful sense of naivety coupled with a bad haircut? You gotta be asking yourself one question: do ya feel lucky, punk.. well.. DO YA?

[GoldenPhil]

[GoldenPhil]

Second wave looking likely 

[ZigZag]

9 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Second wave looking likely 

Everywhere I look and go, the more I see social distancing is weakening, everyone wants things back to normal, shops open, parties, bbq’s, pub open, hey it’s summer. Just wait until the kids go back to school and Uni’s start, back; it’s absolutely inevitable, the question is do they plough on regardless of human life lost.

Can’t see there not being pain somewhere down the line, it all feels a good excuse to me though.

[GoldenPhil]

Second wave equals second big crash

[Martlet]

Something we need to consider is in the event of a second wave, policy is different and there is more of a plough on approach.  The major concern in February and March was the high end mortality rate forecast and effect on health services.  They were caught unprepared to respond.  With a second wave more is known, what is needed and mortality rate is lower than feared.  With track and trace operations is quite possible to have very low R and suppress the second wave to a ripple.  

 

[GoldenPhil]

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/27/how-the-coronavirus-crisis-has-hit-the-uk-economic-outlook

 

[KDave]

We don't even know how many are immune given that many infected do not even suffer symptoms. I would not be surprised to find most are immune and the first wave was in fact the second.

[HerefordBullyun]

Well @GoldenPhil I do admire your guts. Hope it works out for you!

[GoldenPhil]

Cheers.

[vand]

This is serious amateur hour.

I repeat: Trade what you SEE not what you THINK.

When you're fed up of fighting an unwinnable fight and sick of losing money doing so, you'll finally come to realise the wisdom in this simple yet timeless advice. 

[GoldenPhil]

I see nobody shopping. 

I see people out of work.

I see a dead cat bounce once the figures role in.

What do you see?

[ZigZag]

I see value in oversold stock positions, last week Marstons, this week AA. plenty others to trade beside all the Covid bingo stocks.

[GoldenPhil]

Worth a watch

 

[vand]

I like Mike Maloney, but what is his track record in stock market investing? Nothing worthy of note.

I'd rather take my cues from those who have been there and done it:

https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/investment-gurus/601337/anthony-bolton-the-market-wont-wait

[vand]

11 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

I see nobody shopping. 

I see people out of work.

I see a dead cat bounce once the figures role in.

What do you see?

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. I hear online sales and work from home are enjoying a boom.

And for the last time: THE MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY

[KDave]

The EU 750 billion "virus recovery fund" should help the economy. Or the market rather. 

[Martlet]

2 hours ago, vand said:

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. I hear online sales and work from home are enjoying a boom.

And for the last time: THE MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY

I agree with the general point you are making, but you are overplaying it.  The market reflects the economy.  Consider Primark, zero online presence and therefore zero sales for most of the quarter, that will hit the earnings for parent Associated British Foods.  The travel leisure and travel industry is shut down, so no earnings there, commercial rental will be missing payments so the will be hit. Quite easy to see those in the market that are impacted, down 30-40% and not come back yet. 

That said, these companies can hopefully return to normal operations and revenues quickly, so a double down which some expect is unlikely. 

[HerefordBullyun]

4 minutes ago, Martlet said:

I agree with the general point you are making, but you are overplaying it.  The market reflects the economy.  Consider Primark, zero online presence and therefore zero sales for most of the quarter, that will hit the earnings for parent Associated British Foods.  The travel leisure and travel industry is shut down, so no earnings there, commercial rental will be missing payments so the will be hit. Quite easy to see those in the market that are impacted, down 30-40% and not come back yet. 

That said, these companies can hopefully return to normal operations and revenues quickly, so a double down which some expect is unlikely. 

The real economy is production of goods - the west hasnt had that for years, albeit a few of companies. all we have now is Ponzi scheme based on  confidence on companies, on what on CEO's say in the markets, they arent going to saying everythings c**p, becuase they have shareholder interest, unless you are Ranter jewellers. The financial sector doesnt produce anything, its just a clever scam to make money via a load of loopholes for the 1%. The only reason why wall st is bailed out becuase the government has nothing else to bail out! and the fact the government know they are in bed with wall st not main st, the little guy cant do anything for thier benefit.

[Martlet]

The economy is the product of people's wants and needs, nothing more or less.  No use focusing on manufacturing goods, robotics and automation make labour redundant here, we've moved on. 

[KDave]

The output of an economy is its goods and services, the services offered by the financial sector are valuable, how they generate this value, by combining scamming with offering something useful is another question. But the UK has been able to generate more value from the provision of services, particularity in the financial sector as oppose to the production of material goods over the cycle, I believe the economy is 80% services at this point. This seems extreme, it is obviously not guaranteed to continue. I think saying we have moved on is perhaps the wrong way to look at it. We will likely see a shift in the balance towards manufacturing and industry, I am expecting this to be the case over the next decade.

[GoldenPhil]

The predominance of services over manufacturing in the course of Britain's history will ultimately look like a blink of an eye.

[HerefordBullyun]

2 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

The predominance of services over manufacturing in the course of Britain's history will ultimately look like a blink of an eye.

Could be worse - could be in Japan, were thier economy is terrible - that would bring a tear to the Japseye! 🤣 And quite regular!

[Martlet]

There

34 minutes ago, KDave said:

The output of an economy is its goods and services, the services offered by the financial sector are valuable, how they generate this value, by combining scamming with offering something useful is another question. But the UK has been able to generate more value from the provision of services, particularity in the financial sector as oppose to the production of material goods over the cycle, I believe the economy is 80% services at this point. This seems extreme, it is obviously not guaranteed to continue. I think saying we have moved on is perhaps the wrong way to look at it. We will likely see a shift in the balance towards manufacturing and industry, I am expecting this to be the case over the next decade.

There is more to services than finance.  Having a phone installed is a service, a shop is a service, having some website developed is a service.  Basically anything not manufacturing things or agriculture is service sector. There's little chance of returning to high volume manufacturing unless efficient to do so.  Its worthing noting the UK manufacture far more than at any other time in history, its just the service sector grew more and employment reduced due to automation.  High value, high tech goods are made, rather then low value volume that can be imported cheaper than we can make.  Just as manufacturing replaced agriculture. We move on along the value chain.