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It's funny, everyone seems to have a lot of knowledge and opinions but nobody will take a guess at the value of the FTSE in 6 months.

I say 6000 plus or minus 10% 

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2 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

It's funny, everyone seems to have a lot of knowledge and opinions but nobody will take a guess at the value of the FTSE in 6 months.

I say 6000 plus or minus 10% 

Maybe¬†ūü§Ē

 

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6 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

It's funny, everyone seems to have a lot of knowledge and opinions but nobody will take a guess at the value of the FTSE in 6 months.

I say 6000 plus or minus 10% 

so you're saying it could be higher or  lower with the midpoint exactly where we currently are.

N0 SH1T SHERLOCK!

Edited by vand

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My rather bold prediction, for FWIW:

FTSE to climb back past 7,000+ in 6 months

 

Why? It's not really about the FTSE. There is a popularity contest taking place on the other side of the pond, one in which the sitting incumbent will bully and pressurize the Fed to do whatever it takes to reinflate the market back up to and even past the old highs. In his mind the stock market is a vindication of his tenure, so he needs to have it saying to the voters that they've never had it so good.

That is why I think Dow 30k+, FTSE 7k are very distinct possibilities. Nothing to do with fundamentals; short term stock market action rarely is.

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59 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Great.  Just what I thought in the OP.

Good instincts if this comes to pass.

I don't think it will be the same, he is talking about 80% declines, this was under the gold standard and a comparatively laissez faire government attitude to the economy, compared to today with MMT and the ability to print, central banks buying up everything in sight including stocks, governments bailing people and business out left right and center, banks giving mortgage and credit card holidays - you get the picture. Its not the same environment.

History rhymes. I think the price action of the market will also rhyme but not be anywhere near as extreme as the 30's - after the deflationary pressures are worked through via printing, we will see historically abnormal inflation followed by interest rate rises, not a grinding depression. Economic and social consequences will also rhyme, politics will be interesting. 

 

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I think I'll bump this thread every week to remind people predicting a crash that they're wrong and still wrong. 

 

Week #1 guys. 
See you next week.

 

I may stop when we take out the all time highs (and the crashmongers are still sitting on the sidelines)

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17 minutes ago, vand said:

I think I'll bump this thread every week to remind people predicting a crash that they're wrong and still wrong. 

 

Week #1 guys. 
See you next week.

 

I may stop when we take out the all time highs (and the crashmongers are still sitting on the sidelines)

Perhaps once a week is a little excessive how about the 15th of every month? 

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@GoldenPhil very simple technical analysis you can easily replicate for yourself on Trading View (free to register and use). Draw trendline from the high of the FTSE 100 (Just before the virus spread) 7600 to the lowest point so far 4750 and then copy the trendline to the highest retracement level 6200 gives you a target price of 3300. I will not be touching any FTSE shares until they come close to the 3300 level. We so far have a confirmed total case of the corona virus 5,279,643 and death 338,666 worldwide wait until these figures see a x10 increase and see what happens to the markets. Don't fight the Fed but the Fed cannot stop a global virus with money printing. I believe this just the 1st wave down in stock markets around the world and a number of more significant down waves are ahead.

image.png.1172d12286ed5c92afaee7931cb07b47.pngimage.png.06d2d0306233445bdbaa11c86751da39.png

 

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14 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Wow that's great. Any chart analysis on the DOW? 

There is a saying Phil "Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime". You have all the charts around the world at your finger tips for free https://www.tradingview.com/

Before short anything be careful if you are using leverage.

Edited by Abyss

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On 22/05/2020 at 19:13, KDave said:

The silver to gold ratio has produced a result not seen since immediately before the 1929 crash, I thought it was interesting.

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-silver-ratio-useful-indicator/


Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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