FTSE big crash

[KDave]

The silver to gold ratio has produced a result not seen since immediately before the 1929 crash, I thought it was interesting.

[GoldenPhil]

I am shorting the DOW. Wish me luck.  

[Abyss]

@GoldenPhil very simple technical analysis you can easily replicate for yourself on Trading View (free to register and use). Draw trendline from the high of the FTSE 100 (Just before the virus spread) 7600 to the lowest point so far 4750 and then copy the trendline to the highest retracement level 6200 gives you a target price of 3300. I will not be touching any FTSE shares until they come close to the 3300 level. We so far have a confirmed total case of the corona virus 5,279,643 and death 338,666 worldwide wait until these figures see a x10 increase and see what happens to the markets. Don't fight the Fed but the Fed cannot stop a global virus with money printing. I believe this just the 1st wave down in stock markets around the world and a number of more significant down waves are ahead.

 

[GoldenPhil]

Wow that's great. Any chart analysis on the DOW? 

[Abyss]

14 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Wow that's great. Any chart analysis on the DOW? 

There is a saying Phil "Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime". You have all the charts around the world at your finger tips for free https://www.tradingview.com/

Before short anything be careful if you are using leverage.

[Kman]

Is there any benefit to shorting rather than buying TVIX? 

[HerefordBullyun]

On 22/05/2020 at 19:13, KDave said:

The silver to gold ratio has produced a result not seen since immediately before the 1929 crash, I thought it was interesting.

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-silver-ratio-useful-indicator/

[silvernewbie]

most markets move in line with each other so if you think ftse will halve, I imagine you won't hold any equities?

I think the real inflation and job losses will take 6 months when ftse may fall back to 5000

[GoldenPhil]

I often read the publication  in the link below and do the opposite of what they advise as to me it seems little more than an outfit after your money and then offers a kind of pump and dump service. That being said even they are now preparing for a crash lol

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/05/25/stock-market-crash-round-2-may-be-coming-heres-what-im-doing-now/

 

[HerefordBullyun]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-surge-gold-sign-eroding-confidence-central-bank-generated-money

Irony when JPM have been manipulating the PM markets for years.

[GoldenPhil]

Very interesting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/26/fund-called-last-two-crashes-starts-short-global-stock-markets/

 

[HerefordBullyun]

17 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Very interesting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/26/fund-called-last-two-crashes-starts-short-global-stock-markets/

 

Well given the fact at the QE in here in abundence and US isnt going to main street , but to wall st is why stocks are going higher. When then QE runs out, its either more QE or a Stock market correction. QE is wall streets heroin and the FED and BOE are the pimps and drug dealers. Even J Dimon from JPM aditted the fed QE bazooka was big to the tune of 7 trillion!

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-dimon-admits-fed-liquidity-propping-stocks

[vand]

On 22/05/2020 at 21:53, Abyss said:

@GoldenPhil very simple technical analysis you can easily replicate for yourself on Trading View (free to register and use). Draw trendline from the high of the FTSE 100 (Just before the virus spread) 7600 to the lowest point so far 4750 and then copy the trendline to the highest retracement level 6200 gives you a target price of 3300. I will not be touching any FTSE shares until they come close to the 3300 level. We so far have a confirmed total case of the corona virus 5,279,643 and death 338,666 worldwide wait until these figures see a x10 increase and see what happens to the markets. Don't fight the Fed but the Fed cannot stop a global virus with money printing. I believe this just the 1st wave down in stock markets around the world and a number of more significant down waves are ahead.

 

 

3300? Good luck waiting for that.

While anything is possible I would say that the chances of seeing that level in my lifetime is probably < 10%.

Good investing is about accumulating assets on a consistent basis while balancing risk and reward to still being able to take advantage of big opportunities. It's not about basing your investment plan around tail end outcomes.  

[HerefordBullyun]

I wonder when we get to this stage -  this is beyond a joke.... Aslo the yuan has crashed today in light of the US delisting chinese companies from the NASDAQ. All will effect the FTSE as a domino effect..... and the price of the shiny stuff possible upward turn again.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/fiscal-firehose-japan-approves-record-117-trillion-stimulus-package

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-futs-slide-yuan-tumbles-two-chinese-megacaps-push-ahead-hong-kong-listing

[Abyss]

6 hours ago, vand said:

3300? Good luck waiting for that.

While anything is possible I would say that the chances of seeing that level in my lifetime is probably < 10%.

Good investing is about accumulating assets on a consistent basis while balancing risk and reward to still being able to take advantage of big opportunities. It's not about basing your investment plan around tail end outcomes.  

Falls in the stock markets around the world were interrupted with congress approving 3 trillion dollar bailout followed by other central banks doing their own version of digital money printing. Look at the patterns formed the base of various stock market indexes around the world in the 2009 crisis it took six months and either cup formation of reverse head and shoulders. The FTSE hitting 4800 for three days does not constitute valid bottom to the market. Will FTSE hit 3300 maybe, maybe not but need a confluence of data and price action to confirm we have hit the bottom or are very close to hitting the bottom. On 15th January I converted all holding in the NIFTY 50 to Money Market funds paying 5.5% yield. I have missed 20% rally from the bottom NIFTY 50 but I did not want to catch a falling knife.

Prior to the virus you see channels forming in various stock markets that signified a bull market that spanned significant amount of time and all of these long term channels for the bull market are now all technically broken. Still we have ahead of us end of Q2/3/4 for earning, unemployment figures, potential further lock downs. On the surface it looks like central banks papering over the issues but I would rather take wait and see approach. What is the prudent saying when there are big moves in stock market it is time to preserve your money. Stock markets climb slowly but fall in record time. We had the biggest falls in the stock markets in shortest time frame in history. You should only accumulate assets on a consistent basis when the market you are accumulating those assets in is in a technical bull market.

[MancunianStacker]

I’m with @Abyss in cash ready & waiting for 3,300 or thereabouts. 😁 

[GoldenPhil]

You can go one further than holding cash. You can short the market.

I actually shorted the DOW rather than the FTSE. This is why:

 

 

[vand]

10 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

You can go one further than holding cash. You can short the market.

I actually shorted the DOW rather than the FTSE. This is why:

 

Yeah.. how's that working out for you? 

[GoldenPhil]

Don't know yet. 

[vand]

12 hours ago, Abyss said:

Falls in the stock markets around the world were interrupted with congress approving 3 trillion dollar bailout followed by other central banks doing their own version of digital money printing. Look at the patterns formed the base of various stock market indexes around the world in the 2009 crisis it took six months and either cup formation of reverse head and shoulders. The FTSE hitting 4800 for three days does not constitute valid bottom to the market. Will FTSE hit 3300 maybe, maybe not but need a confluence of data and price action to confirm we have hit the bottom or are very close to hitting the bottom. On 15th January I converted all holding in the NIFTY 50 to Money Market funds paying 5.5% yield. I have missed 20% rally from the bottom NIFTY 50 but I did not want to catch a falling knife.

Prior to the virus you see channels forming in various stock markets that signified a bull market that spanned significant amount of time and all of these long term channels for the bull market are now all technically broken. Still we have ahead of us end of Q2/3/4 for earning, unemployment figures, potential further lock downs. On the surface it looks like central banks papering over the issues but I would rather take wait and see approach. What is the prudent saying when there are big moves in stock market it is time to preserve your money. Stock markets climb slowly but fall in record time. We had the biggest falls in the stock markets in shortest time frame in history. You should only accumulate assets on a consistent basis when the market you are accumulating those assets in is in a technical bull market.

 

Respectfully disagree... that is a trading strategy, not an investment strategy. 

Investors buy based on their estimation of the value of discounted future cashflows. Traders buy based on squiggly lines on a chart. 

 

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Added 0 minutes later...

2 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Don't know yet. 

It's quite easy.. open up your trading software and look at the P/L on that position. Post it here.

[GoldenPhil]

Oh I see what you mean. This is a six month position so I will be layering in to get the best average I can before the fall.  

[vand]

1 minute ago, GoldenPhil said:

Oh I see what you mean. This is a six month position so I will be layering in to get the best average I can before the fall.  

Excellent.. because we all know how adding to a losing position is definitely the path to successful trading.

[GoldenPhil]

Depends on whether the DOW falls from its current price within the next 6 months 

[vand]

2 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

Depends on whether the DOW falls from its current price within the next 6 months 

 As I said, keep us posted on your trades. Entry AND exit. If you’re profitable after 2 years I’ll freely admit you’re a genius.

 

[GoldenPhil]

Thank you that would mean so much to me