FTSE big crash

[vand]

11 hours ago, vand said:

The markets have very clearly fallen out of their primary ascending pattern now. Here's the S&P:

The upside momentum as disappeared since it fell out of the triange on June 11th. 
NOW is a better time to try shorting the market - initiate short around here @ 3007, add to position if we move below 2940, place stop around 3200. First downside target should be ~2630.

 

Also it is not a coincidence that the market top coincided with the Fed's balance sheet:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

 

[Kman]

10 hours ago, vand said:

Also it is not a coincidence that the market top coincided with the Fed's balance sheet:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

 

Good call, especially dialling back on the liquidity on June 9th, coincides with the S&P500 perfectly

This is it overlayed on the chart, shockingly aligned

You were right, could be time to short if you're into that kind of thing until they turn the tap back on 

chart..

 

 

[vand]

Closed my shorts as FTSE briefly dipped below 6,000 in pre-market. We've scalped a couple of hundred points downside profit.

Could go lower, but the smart trade now is to reverse and go long, with a stop loss around the most recent low @ 5940 back in June. H

owever I won't be doing that as I am just leaving my portfolio unhedged.

[GoldenPhil]

More people coming round to my way of thinking on this.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/huge-market-crash-coming-warren-121015499.html

 

[vand]

Fair enough @GoldenPhil, but this thread is already 3 months old and nothing you have originally proposed as come even close to passing.

As I have said previously, being right and too early is indistingushable from being wrong. 

[GoldenPhil]

Think I have been pretty consistent in saying November 

[HerefordBullyun]

Tick Tick Tick Booooooom

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-brace-historic-crash-record-loss-provisions

[SierraWhiskyMike]

On 13/06/2020 at 08:45, Rocky2000 said:

Everything is crashing, stocks property everything 

 

silver is the last thing still undervalued 

I agree that silver is undervalued, especially given the hilarious debt we've just created for 'rona. Give it time for some of that new cash to start trading around and I'm betting silver price will rise, even if purely against the pound on inflation.

Wouldn't go so far as to say stocks and property are going to crash just yet, although I'm expecting UK stocks to get a shock and growth to be slow.

My reason for this is that more companies can cut costs by downsizing offices thanks to the popular working-from-home experience. This will hit commercial real estate prices for sure but it reduces costs of doing business thus increasing profit margins.

Not commuting also saves people a ton of cash. If you factor in depreciation on a car, inflation against prices of a similar car when the current one needs replacing, fuel, tax, maintenance and insurance, I'll bet the average person is spending 2-3 months' wages just getting to work. If you can reduce the number of vehicles you need in a family, you might be freeing up £1500-6000 a year (cost averaging - obviously some years you pay little on the car, some years it's exhorbitant). Where would you spend that cash if you rented? Either in renting a bigger place to get a home office setup or in buying your own place, preferably one with a spare room/office and a garden in case of future lockdowns.

Even though the economy is undoubtedly going to be spanked by 'rona, I think that global markets are more likely to have another brief shock then reduced growth rather than no growth over 10 years. Some property will crash (commercial offices; rental flats maybe) but others I think will be buoyed by the freed-up cash.

 

[Stacktastic]

Has anyone else heard about a massive market crash on 31st July? 

Its apparently when the USA curb the handouts amongst a lot of other things. 

November sounds about right for a major hit. I think it might be 2008 all over again, maybe worse? 

[SierraWhiskyMike]

14 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

Has anyone else heard about a massive market crash on 31st July? 

Its apparently when the USA curb the handouts amongst a lot of other things. 

November sounds about right for a major hit. I think it might be 2008 all over again, maybe worse? 

I understand that the US have agreed to round 2 of stimulus in principle and are just working out the bill. Could be as early as August.

I'm assuming that you invest in funds, which is a generally safe call. If you have doubts though, maybe drip feed your regular payments into a non-US facing fund for a bit until either the next downturn or until you feel it's safe? It's a little like timing the market (which rarely works) but you're leaving your funds invested.

To be honest I doubt that in 5-10 years you'll notice any losses made now if you stick with a diversified plan and continue to drip feed in. 

Fidelity finance famously did a study on stock portfolios that analysed the best performing portfolios. Turns out, the top performers were dead people whose money hadn't been recovered yet. The close second, way above any active managers, was from people who'd simply forgotten about their investments.  If it's even remotely true then it should give confidence to just leave your investments in place and see what happens.

Personally I think the S&P500 is well overweight with a P/E ratio in the 20s, which is way above historical norms. I don't expect a "crash" but I do expect a major correction so I have held off S&P 500 index funds for a while until they become better value.