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This is not said based on any actual evidence,  no analysis,  no number crunching,  no insider knowledge,  this is pure gut feeling so dont pay it too much attention but I think there is a bigger crash to come.

I have seen this type of price action before in markets, a big drop,  people excited by the prices so try to buy up bargins which causes a rise in prices off what people think is the bottom, then some and ups and downs but all above the recent supposed bottom and then it crashes past what people thought was the bottom and it keeps heading down. 

As I said don't pay any attention to this your life choices are yours and yours alone. I would however like to hear your ideas and counter perspectives.  

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5 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

This is not said based on any actual evidence,  no analysis,  no number crunching,  no insider knowledge,  this is pure gut feeling so dont pay it too much attention but I think there is a bigger crash to come.

I have seen this type of price action before in markets, a big drop,  people excited by the prices so try to buy up bargins which causes a rise in prices off what people think is the bottom, then some and ups and downs but all above the recent supposed bottom and then it crashes past what people thought was the bottom and it keeps heading down. 

As I said don't pay any attention to this your life choices are yours and yours alone. I would however like to hear your ideas and counter perspectives.  

Why didn't you warn us in February?

And if your spidey sense couldn't tell ahead of time back then, what makes you think it can do so now?

 

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5 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

This is not said based on any actual evidence,  no analysis,  no number crunching,  no insider knowledge,  this is pure gut feeling so dont pay it too much attention but I think there is a bigger crash to come.

I have seen this type of price action before in markets, a big drop,  people excited by the prices so try to buy up bargins which causes a rise in prices off what people think is the bottom, then some and ups and downs but all above the recent supposed bottom and then it crashes past what people thought was the bottom and it keeps heading down. 

As I said don't pay any attention to this your life choices are yours and yours alone. I would however like to hear your ideas and counter perspectives.  

I think you could be right. The markets are so hyperinflated. All this QE is just adding fuel to the fire. We are in the everything bubble now. Its definately got alll the hallmarks espically with trade wars between US and China. Theres a lot of tension espically with Trump not being happy with China. I belive there is a lot more QE to come, trump spent 1.3 Trn in 3 months. In 1973 that was USA's national debt. I can see a Japanification coming, its been a long time coming. I think its a good time to hold precious metals. The gold price today breaking records today alone....


Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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33 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

This is not said based on any actual evidence,  no analysis,  no number crunching,  no insider knowledge,  this is pure gut feeling so dont pay it too much attention but I think there is a bigger crash to come.

I have seen this type of price action before in markets, a big drop,  people excited by the prices so try to buy up bargins which causes a rise in prices off what people think is the bottom, then some and ups and downs but all above the recent supposed bottom and then it crashes past what people thought was the bottom and it keeps heading down. 

As I said don't pay any attention to this your life choices are yours and yours alone. I would however like to hear your ideas and counter perspectives.  

Get Trumps election or otherwise out the way, next flu season and second wave of Covid 19 and we probably haven’t seen anything yet, the helicopters won’t be able to get off the ground with the amount they’ll need to bail out Wall Street.

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 Another crash has to come you would think

Maybe it will be another corona lockdown if cases rocket up again when measures are relaxed

Maybe it will be when things reopen fully and we get Q2 or Q3 results in and people see just how bad of an impact this has really had

Just seems inevitable 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kman said:

 

Maybe it will be when things reopen fully and we get Q2 or Q3 results in and people see just how bad of an impact this has really had

 

 

 

Good shout on that, - it really will have an effect - because there is some mass unemployment coming and its started, regardless before COVID19 some companies were close to going under beforehand. Some are just using this furlough scheme just to fold and bleed thier companies before they do. Look at Richturd Branston pickle with Virgin airlines. The only airlines that will win are the ones who can survive the storm out of COVID19.   


Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, silverdocket said:

Can't blame that on the Chinese flu 

Screenshot_20200514_213402_com.duckduckgo.mobile.android.jpg

Well look at the all time price of Deutchse bank what it was pre crash and look at its price today. This is the biggest bank in Germany - The amount of Toxic debt and deriraritives its owns is astounding. When that goes that is the euro down shatpipe %100. And considering Greece Itay Spains GDP of debt is unreal, its ticking timebomb.  The euro I think will fail before the dollar IMHO.

Edited by HerefordBullyun

Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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Posted (edited)

And the irony is that Deutchse is one of the 14 investors looking to bail out Virgin airlines with money.....

https://inews.co.uk/news/business/deutsche-bank-potential-rescuer-virgin-atlantic-richard-branson-coronavirus-2853712

Also All time high 110.97 euros per share now 6.09 per share...... mmmmmm

Edited by HerefordBullyun
edited to add

Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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After such a large unexpected and catastrophic event for the markets we should be seeing way more of a crash - Sub 3750 and I might start buying. 


 

 

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Everyone sees the bull trap now, I called it at minimum 3 weeks ago and no one listened including me, there was too much on offer. ;)

I have been buying, working through my list. Many I have bought are coming off multi-decade lows, you have to go back far beyond 2009 in some cases to find the last time they visited the price levels we have seen and still see in some cases. 

I honestly have no idea if prices will be lower by year end, but I am confident this is a cheap entry point in the areas I am looking. Oil majors will be much higher in 10 years time, especially if all this inflation talk comes true and oil is $100-$200 a barrel, other commodities following. I am expecting inflation much later than most here it seems, I think 2 years before we see it, deflation first. Regardless, the upside from the inevitable inflation is best captured at the point at which it first occurs, and in a company that produces a primary good that the customer can not avoid and can not substitute. Commodities. Energy. Mostly energy.

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2 hours ago, Seasider said:

One of the others is Cerberus - which should tell you where the company is heading.

Personally I have stocked up on Diageo because I think people are going to need a drink.

Ever been to the Guinness storehouse in Dublin???? If you knew where they got the water from you'd think twice lol lol 

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Posted (edited)

The problem that we do have against us that prices of metals as we know have been manipulated for years. The banking cartel will continue to manipulate metals through the ETF market. I personally would never hold paper metal ETF's - if you dont hold it you dont own it! I would rather cram a jam jar of angry wasps up my a$$ than hold metal ETF certs.  

Edited by HerefordBullyun

Hehe Chamoooooooooooooooon!!!!  Check my crib video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_IsJbgZDTw

You can download Mike Maloney's Gold Silver book free here https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

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I don't want to come over as pessimistic but I do believe when economies around the world reduce the lock down measure we will have a second peak significantly higher than the 1st and we will need to go back into lock down again and the second time round will cause another major sell off in world equity markets and my simple technical analysis calculation sees the FTSE 100 hitting 3,300.

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23 minutes ago, Abyss said:

I don't want to come over as pessimistic but I do believe when economies around the world reduce the lock down measure we will have a second peak significantly higher than the 1st and we will need to go back into lock down again and the second time round will cause another major sell off in world equity markets and my simple technical analysis calculation sees the FTSE 100 hitting 3,300.

You are not alone in that thought... I suspect the same may happen. 


 

 

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Here is a reality check for anyone who thinks the FTSE is overvalued:

 

We are trading at near historic 40 years LOWS on CAPE10 and Buffett Indicator. Future expected return is far HIGHER than historical average based on valuations.

The FTSE is LOWER than it was 20 years ago, not just in real terms but in absolute terms.

Housing has gone up 150% since 2000, the FTSE has fallen by 15%. It is housing that you should be calling out as the overpriced asset. 99/100 people if given a choice in this country would put the money into housing rather than into the stocks. That is not a stock market you need to worry about being overly valued.

 

I'm not saying the FTSE can't fall further, of course anything that is cheap can still get cheaper. I'm saying don't be afraid of it falling further. Stocks are assets that pay you to own them; the less you pay the higher your future return will be. But DON'T count on it. The world is littered with geniuses who think they can predict what the stock market will do in the short term, in what is essentially a never-ending series of coin-flip with a slight positive edge. The longer you stay invested the more you win from your tiny edge over time. 

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29 minutes ago, vand said:

The FTSE is LOWER than it was 20 years ago, not just in real terms but in absolute terms.

Wasn't that the time of the Dotcom bubble?  And how did that end?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

Wasn't that the time of the Dotcom bubble?  And how did that end?

what's your point? The market goes through booms and busts, but real growth eventually sees it surpass all its previous peaks. 

If you're dismissing the FTSE today because 20 years ago it was in a bubble then you can't see the woods from the trees.

Edited by vand

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10 hours ago, silverdocket said:

Ever been to the Guinness storehouse in Dublin???? If you knew where they got the water from you'd think twice lol lol 

My father had a plan when I was a kid to stop me smoking and drinking.

"you want to smoke?  Here's a Greek cigarette.

you want to drink?  Here's a bottle of Guinness."

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

The FTSE is nothing like as overpriced as the DOW, but when valuing an index using relatives such as GNP, earnings or yields what happens when these metrics get cut in half or by 80% 90% 100% suddenly companies who have cut dividends to zero and who are carrying a lot of debt don't look very cheap. Comparisons such as average PE, market cap to GNP suddenly spike up.  I don't think we have had a proper capitulation since 2000 and I don't think the market has priced in the risk to capital investors are taking for diminishing returns. Lets see how cheap this market looks after we have see 3rd and 4th quarter earnings.

 

The way to value paper assets is the value of its all its future cash flows discounted to the present.  Therefore it reasons that a 100% collapse in earnings in the present time period isn't followed by a 100% collapse the price of the asset - because buyers are paying for the cashflows of all future time periods.

Yes, earnings can fluctuate from year to year. That is what the CAPE valuation tries to account for, by comparing price to the inflation adjusted 10 year earnings average.  You can look at longer CAPE valuations if you still think 10 years is too short, but it will tell you pretty much the same thing.

That is why the market bottomed at trailing p/e of 100+ in 2009: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
The current year earnings had been wiped out, but the market was priced at a sensible valuation to its future cashflows.

 

Edited by vand

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1 hour ago, vand said:

what's your point? The market goes through booms and busts, but real growth eventually sees it surpass all its previous peaks. 

If you're dismissing the FTSE today because 20 years ago it was in a bubble then you can't see the woods from the trees.

You were using a highly inflated figure to justify why today's figure is not as highly inflated as some people think.  My point is, we don't seem to learn the lessons of history!

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37 minutes ago, vand said:

 

The way to value paper assets is the value of its all its future cash flows discounted to the present.  Therefore it reasons that a 100% collapse in earnings in the present time period isn't followed by a 100% collapse the price of the asset - because buyers are paying for the cashflows of all future time periods.

Yes, earnings can fluctuate from year to year. That is what the CAPE valuation tries to account for, by comparing price to the inflation adjusted 10 year earnings average.  You can look at longer CAPE valuations if you still think 10 years is too short, but it will tell you pretty much the same thing.

That is why the market bottomed at trailing p/e of 100+ in 2009: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
The current year earnings had been wiped out, but the market was priced at a sensible valuation to its future cashflows.

 

Raises the question whether or not "future cash flow" has been factored in with a second peak or without a second peak. 

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I’ve always been of the opinion that when things did start to unravel that the UK government would sacrifice the value of the pound. The other options are too risky in terms of social unrest, ultimately leading to real political and economic change. If people’s quality of life rapidly declined you would see the British people rise from their decades long slumber, hit the streets, unite and become politically active again. You could see scenes like we seen in Greece which is what the vested interests in this country fear the most.

To believe that stocks are worth their current prices, you have to believe that central banks can cure the worlds ills. That they can shelter us from facing bad situations or harsh decisions.¬†That they have defeated a once in a century crisis by literally entering a few digits into a computer. Or maybe the markets are forward looking and they‚Äôve realised inflation is coming,¬†as Ray Dalio has recently said ‚Äúcash is trash‚ÄĚ.
 

Can a controlled demolition of the pound be conducted without the system collapsing? Maybe. Maybe not. With interest rates at 0, public, private and corporate debts at or near all time highs what are the tools available? Having a free floating currency and the ability to create unlimited amounts of it seem like the easy way of avoiding hard decisions. Which is what politicians do best. 

So I expect a managed, slower decline by devaluing the pound, inflating away debts and purchasing power. Even though there could easily be another significant decline from here in the markets holding stocks might be a decent bet. 

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