some opinions please

[rob121]

i'm buying 20oz (ish) of silver form STG and not sure what to get.

 

choices are:

. 10oz lunar goat

. 10oz kook

. 10 x 1oz libertads

 

I like the look of all but are libertads semi numismatic? what would be the best to flip in say 2 years?

also are lunars always better than kooks when it comes to resale?

 

[SilverBalls]

Hey Rob,

Personally I'd go for the libertads and Goat.

The libertads should be easier to shift individually and are always in great demand - despite their increase in mintage this year (so I have heard).

I love the Lunars so would always pick these over the Kooks. It's a size that some people may let pass by and with more people coming into silver buying, MAY yield a good return.

My only concern is that in 2 years, you may not be making very much profit on these.

[HelpingHands]

If you're looking for a flip in two years then I would think about small coins with a design which only features this year (1/2oz 1oz 2oz).

[silversword]

There's demand for all of them, so no trouble reselling, though not sure about short term profits. Libertads are just bullion - I think people who collect this design are likely to go for proofs. Kooks are nice and relatively limited supply but still bullion. I am not sure 2 years will net you much gain on the coin's premium, but you never know. Lunar goats might do well if the series remains popular.

[StackemHigh]

Can't see a down turn in series 2 lunar coins. A third series maybe could send some folks into lunar overload, but to finish could possibly see series 1 and series 2 coin gain a higher premium!

[HighlandTiger]

If the reason you are into buying silver is because you think you can make a tidy profit on a regular basis every couple of years, then I'm afraid you are going to be sadly disappointed.

 

As others have said before, silver and gold stacking is about wealth preservation, not wealth creation. There are plenty of other investments out there that will give you way way more profit on your investments

[HighlandTiger]

Can't see a down turn in series 2 lunar coins. A third series maybe could send some folks into lunar overloa, but to finish could possibly see series 1 and series 2 coin gain a higher premium!

 

Series 1 will always hold a good premium, although that boat has sailed for people buying those coins now. But any more lunar series are going to dilute any premiums, and If a third series appears I can never see series 2 making money. Coin collecting is a dying hobby, less and less youngsters are coming into it, and collector numbers have fallen, although the slight increase in PM stacking has slowed it a little. As more and more mints are competing for a smaller and smaller market, prices will eventually drop, especially as mintages go up. 

[ChrisSilver]

@HighlandTiger do you have any evidence to back up your statement that collectors numbers have fallen?

[HelpingHands]

Can't see a down turn in series 2 lunar coins. A third series maybe could send some folks into lunar overloa, but to finish could possibly see series 1 and series 2 coin gain a higher premium!

I was thinking the opposite that a series 3 will maintain the interest in collecting series' 1&2.

[Danny-boy]

I can never see series 2 making money.

Looking at the current sale prices for mouse, ox and some dragons (all sizes), I'm afraid I'm calling you on that one.

[HelpingHands]

Looking at the current sale prices for mouse, ox and some dragons (all sizes),

Not just those. If you can't get any coins from years past for the same price as this year's coin then they are making money.

[StackemHigh]

I'm confident that a third Perth Mint series overall wouldn't necessarily be a good thing. Several mints from around the world have a lunar series at the moment!

Although the quality is excellent from Perth Mint in MHO the market is saturated with viable alternatives.

I reckon it's time for change when series 2 is complete.

Kookaburra proofs could be an option, britainnia gold orpandas if you can get them from a reputable source.

[StackemHigh]

Interesting topic the future of Lunars!

Starting a new thread.

[HighlandTiger]

@ChrisSilver. When visiting coin fairs what is the age range. You'll find it is predominately middle aged and older. Not enough youngsters taking up the hobby to cover the oldies dying off. Coin shops closing, coin magazines shutting down and the ones remaining losing readership. The internet may be the reason for part of it but not all. When I was young in a class of 30 kids you'd have about 10 kids who collected stamps and about 5 who collected coins. Today I'd be surprised if there was a single kid per class who was a collector. Too many other distractions nowadays. @dannyboy. What price were these coins on release. You can only judge today's prices of these coins on what people were paying when released. Not what the prices are today. Lots of people here were buying new release coins at over £30 each only a few years ago

[HelpingHands]

I don't think the release price is relevant as we are talking about designs and not movements in spot price. Otherwise, it'll be like saying the maple leaf design from 2009 was a profitable design if held for two years.

[HighlandTiger]

So if a lunars coin price today was £28, that would look good compared to this years lunar release price. But if the release price was £30 would not that be relevant. It would be interesting if any of the long term stackers had the actual release price of coins to see if there is any correlation to today's prices

[HelpingHands]

I'm thinking whether there is a way of charting % over spot. Not sure if that only proves my view in a bear market.

[HawkHybrid]

I'm of the opinion that all in price rise including

spot and whatever else is important. after all

the intention can be read as which of these

coins is most likely make me a better % gain

if bought today and sold in 2 years. also spot

can influence mintage.

 

HH

[HelpingHands]

If the market remains flat for the next 12 months then we can compare.  If we can buy the goat in 12 months for the same price as the monkey then I'll give in.

[Danny-boy]

So if a lunars coin price today was £28, that would look good compared to this years lunar release price. But if the release price was £30 would not that be relevant. It would be interesting if any of the long term stackers had the actual release price of coins to see if there is any correlation to today's prices

The prices they are commanding are far over issue price, that I know for sure.

1/2oz mouse £60

2oz mouse £230

1/2oz ox £32

2oz ox £85

Some series 2 lunars have made strong money, fact.

[HawkHybrid]

the rat, ox and tiger are glitch years being

that both the lunar 1 and 2 series share the

same date. given a fixed demand during the

year that they were produced this would have

resulted in better value coins due to lower

mintage. none of the current lunar coins have

this advantage.

 

a better comparison could be if the 2 year

old lunar 2 snake is in profit for those who

bought it initially.

 

HH

[HelpingHands]

If you're flipping to increase your ounces then the spot can move all over the place and it shouldn't make a difference.  If you can sell older coins and immediately reload with this years coins you can increase your stack year on year.

 

Sod cashing out.

[HighlandTiger]

@dannyboy whilst the coins you have listed as "fact" (Rafa Benitez has a lot to answer for ). None of them are bog standard one ounce coins. I would like to see if anyone can give me the release prices if the 1 ounce coins to compare profitability , especially series 2 coins

[Danny-boy]

@dannyboy whilst the coins you have listed as "fact" (Rafa Benitez has a lot to answer for ). None of them are bog standard one ounce coins. I would like to see if anyone can give me the release prices if the 1 ounce coins to compare profitability , especially series 2 coins

HT, don't change the parameters to make yourself sound correct.

In my response, I was directly responding to something you wrote.......

I can never see series 2 making money.

Whatever the reason, they are series 2 and they have made stonking money.

[HelpingHands]

Just for amusement or despair see the image I've just taken from the waybackmachine Nov 2011.

(click on them if they are too small)