Are you waiting or buying?

[silenceissilver]

45 minutes ago, cravethatcoin said:

Silver is a very manipulated market, its price has no relation to demand it would seem.

With that said silver is a industrial metal. If the economy fails there will be much less demand for silver. Who's going to update their existing or buy new electronics with a failing economy?

You want to put 100% into gold/silver? That would be financial suicide in my opinion.

The silver market is tiny thus it doesn't need a lot of people to start getting silver for compensating the lack in industrial demand. We have seen this in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.

But I have said, if you think silver is not anti cyclic, stick to gold. What's flawed about the counter cycle argument?

And if you think it's financial suicide in an everthing bubble to stick to the very few things that will not collapse, well, I don't understand that logic  but it would be interesting what other assets you have (apart from a house that you live in)? Stock markets crashing, house bubble about to burst, hyperinflation on the way. But being in these assets is not financial suicide?

[HawkHybrid]

28 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

The silver market is tiny thus it doesn't need a lot of people to start getting silver for compensating the lack in industrial demand. We have seen this in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

 

my interpretation is that the 2011 peak was driven by industrial

demand. 650 million toz in 2011 was the highest industrial

demand for the decade shown. 2015 is the largest total and also

the largest coin and bars demand for the decade shown. 2015

corresponds with the lowest silver price for that decade.

imo the silver price is not about volume of demand, it's more

about how much people are willing to pay for each toz.

 

imo the truly fail safe is stocking up on food and supplies, but

then there is a practical limitation on that.

 

HH

[Mark10110]

Just now, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

 

my interpretation is that the 2011 peak was driven by industrial

demand. 650 million toz in 2011 was the highest industrial

demand for the decade shown. 2015 is the largest total and also

the largest coin and bars demand for the decade shown. 2015

corresponds with the lowest silver price for that decade.

imo the silver price is not about volume of demand, it's more

about how much people are willing to pay for each toz.

 

imo the truly fail safe is stocking up on food and supplies, but

then there is a practical limitation on that.

 

HH

I agree on the food thing, I try not to be one of those "preppers" who have a room full of food but every time I goto the store I pick up a couple can extra and it soon builds up.

[New2Metals]

I'm less worried about an overall production issue (long term anyway, I am mostly worried about 5-10years from now not so much the next 18 mo) than I am hyperinflation specific to any particular fiat currenty if that makes sense. Specifically, it looks to me like they are getting ready to print unbelievable amounts of USD and I don't want to get caught holding done of junk status USD, that's my biggest concern.

[silenceissilver]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

my interpretation is that the 2011 peak was driven by industrial

demand.

My interpretation is that the 2011 bar and coin demand went up very strongly compared to 2010 and 2009, compared to 2009 more than the industrial demand, in absolute figures and certainly relatively.

Btw, the line breaks in your posts makes them difficult to read. I don't know how you manage to do this for all your posts.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, silenceissilver said:

My interpretation is that the 2011 bar and coin demand went up very strongly compared to 2010 and 2009, compared to 2009 more than the industrial demand, in absolute figures and certainly relatively.

 

coins and bars peaked in 2015, it didn't help the silver price.

 

HH

[silenceissilver]

1 minute ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

coins and bars peaked in 2015, it didn't help the silver price.

 

HH

Yes but a peak in the times of a severe crisis will outperform the 2015 peak by far.

[HawkHybrid]

2 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

Yes but a peak in the times of a severe crisis will outperform the 2015 peak by far.

 

so bars and coins demand is not really all that important?

 

HH

[silenceissilver]

19 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

so bars and coins demand is not really all that important?

The total demand is. I submitt during a very severe economic crisis, it will overcompensate the lack of industrial demand. We shall see.

[HawkHybrid]

24 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

The total demand is. I submitt during a very severe economic crisis, it will overcompensate the lack of industrial demand. We shall see.

 

total demand was biggest in 2015 and not 2011?

 

HH

[Melon]

On 11/04/2020 at 09:53, Blehhhh said:

If stocks take another dive, Ill be throwing money in. Thats real risk\reward. But you also must remain balanced.

Did you jump in to the stock market so far at all since Covid-19? I put quite a bit in over the last few weeks - time will tell if that was wise or foolish! 

7 hours ago, Mark10110 said:

I agree on the food thing, I try not to be one of those "preppers" who have a room full of food but every time I goto the store I pick up a couple can extra and it soon builds up.

Tell me this isn't the coolest thing you've ever seen? 

 

[Blehhhh]

6 hours ago, Melon said:

Did you jump in to the stock market so far at all since Covid-19? I put quite a bit in over the last few weeks - time will tell if that was wise or foolish! 

Tell me this isn't the coolest thing you've ever seen? 

 

No, I've nothing in the market.

Obviously no one knows what will happen. But it's my belief that we have some way to fall yet.

 

[bluemoon]

I'm waiting for the premiums to become sensible again. Buying now would just make me feel ripped off.

[GTBCoins]

I am both buying and saving, more of a half and half to err on the side of caution.

[SilverGoldSaver]

On 10/04/2020 at 05:13, Nick1368 said:

Emotions ? nah I wouldn't call it emotions , uncertainty yes but emotions no , the situation is not even that uncertain, we kind of know what is going to happen, don't we ?

in my personal opinion there are bad bad times ahead of the economy and the market, it is going to take the market at least  two years to recover from this mess and we haven't seen the worst of it yet, the price of gold won't go down anytime soon .

I am keeping very little money in my bank account, just enough for bills and online purchases, I own my house and car so no monthly payments for mortgage or loan to pay and have no debt at all, thank god for that, any money that comes my way turns into gold ASAP , I  think now is a great time to buy gold.

That's a very good position to be in!  👍  I'm still renting, mainly because homes in SF California are still sooo expensive.  But at least I own my car, and have no debts. Slowly collecting gold and silver for the long term. 

[Russell]

Right i am stopping here for now, I have bought enough as a start to my stack.  Got my tracking number from Baird and the bar is on its way. 

I find the Crypto thing interesting but I have no intention (yet) of getting into that because

1/ I don't understand it fully

2/ it is not tangible.  

I can see weaknesses in it like relying on electricity/computing/internet to get to your money and all the bettter technologies evolving to rival Bitcoin.  Can you use Bitcoin to buy the other ones?  Whereas Gold and Silver are in my hands, I have full control of them 😕

[benbenFR]

Il not sure its a good strategy but i m buying paper silver for now to swap it into physical silver once thé situation stabilized.

[StackerNoob]

Ive been too lazy to read the whole thread to see if anyone has made this point, but any coin releases that occur now will likely hold their premiums in the long term. I said on another thread a minute ago about the 10 z Yale as an example. I have not seen it offered below £185 anywhere during this crisis. I doubt you will ever be able to buy it second hand from anyone for less than that. I'd liken it to the premiums that the early perth lunar II series coins still have, despite some of them having quite large mintages. The price environment at the time of release is critically important for the future price of that item.

Basically, if something has been released recently, or has stopped production at the moment, there will always be a premium on it forever. I would say this will even apply to eagles and things too.

[Stuntman]

I also don't really agree.  In my opinion rhe future price of most precious metal coins will mainly be determined by the prevailing spot price and the desirability/popularity of the particular coin to the current stacker/collectors.

 

[RedDragon77]

53 minutes ago, Stuntman said:

I also don't really agree.  In my opinion rhe future price of most precious metal coins will mainly be determined by the prevailing spot price and the desirability/popularity of the particular coin to the current stacker/collectors.

 

Yeah, I hope some things will command premiums in the future if the quantities minted are depressed due to the crisis, but I am not counting on it. So I'm still looking for the smallest price over melt, $20/ozt being my upper limit for silver.

[StackerNoob]

7 hours ago, cinereus said:

Why?

I’m not really sure how to answer you other than to point back to what I’ve already said. The idea that all silver items are priced according to the live spot price is plainly not true. As I mentioned, a great example of this is the lunar II series from Perth Mint. The rabbit commands amongst the highest premium now because spot price of silver in 2011 was at an ATH. You won’t find anyone selling a 1 Oz rabbit for anything under £27-28. More than double spot. That is in spite of mintage figures identical to the rest of the series. 

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

I thought I was waiting but then I went and bought a couple more sovs last week. Ah well...

[StackerNoob]

10 minutes ago, cinereus said:

I can't see any explanation in either of your posts. Why those as opposed to literally any other coin?

It’s not those coins specifically, I’m just using them to represent my case that the price paid over the counter at the time of a coins release is not just forgotten about. If a coin commands a premium upon release and sells out, nobody is going to sell lower later on just because spot has decreased since then. Especially when the premium over spot is enormous right now. Essentially, spot price is irrelevant to store prices. Supply and demand and not spot are causing store prices to be as high as they are. Combining the excess premium, lack of raw material supply will also lead to low mintage figures this year. I’m not saying 2020 coins are going to be key dates or anything, just that their future value to a collector will be higher than in years that silver was plentiful and cheap. 

For my original point, the 10 oz Yale has been released into an environment where retail demand for bullion is extremely high but mint output is extremely low. It means that despite the pretty average spot price, actual bullion prices are far higher than would be expected. Since the Yale will only be produced for a relatively short time, all initial sales of the Yale will reflect these factors. And since it is also part of a very desirable coin set, I believe it will always be higher priced than say, the falcon or the bull, and that’s despite the fact that spot prices were similar or higher when those two were released.

[murphy1418]

I bought some silver when it was $12 and change around the middle of March. I've held off since then and will wait.

[HawkHybrid]

13 hours ago, StackerNoob said:

The rabbit commands amongst the highest premium now because spot price of silver in 2011 was at an ATH. You won’t find anyone selling a 1 Oz rabbit for anything under £27-28. More than double spot. That is in spite of mintage figures identical to the rest of the series. 

 

you're probably jumping to conclusions here. what you buy

something for is not necessarily what you will be able to sell it

for(people take losses on 'investments').

for example you'll find forum members buying 2011 britannias

a few years ago from hgm for less than 2011 lowest spot price.

 

HH