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Shinus73

Retail Effect on Silver Price

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If anybody needed further proof of the fact that retail silver buying, or demand, or even availability, plays no part whatsoever in the price of paper silver, now is the time.

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Yep, nothing available anywhere, refiners shutting down, mines shutting down for weeks or months and nothing to base a futures price on and silver and platinum down 3% today....

Unless they know something we dont....

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Posted (edited)

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

 

coins and bars make up 20% demand.

industry makes up 60% demand.

what's more important 20% demand or 60% demand?

 

so yes, the rise in demand from worldwide lcs might not

be as important as the reduction in demand from industry.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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Indeed, retail is almost entirely irrelevant. In the interests of balance, industrial demand seems pretty irrelevant most of the time also.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

Indeed, retail is almost entirely irrelevant. In the interests of balance, industrial demand seems pretty irrelevant most of the time also.

 

if you're claiming that the lions share of 60% demand

over the last 10 years is an irrelevant amount then that

could well be your opinion.

(what's more likely:

1, stock market turmoil creates a suppression in silver

prices. (conspiracy theories)

2, stock market turmoil creates a realisation of a reduction

in industrial demand for silver, causing the forward looking

futures prices for silver to drop.)

 

the figures don't lie, industry demand is about three times

that of coins and bars. whether people like it or not. just

because coins and bars like to make a lot of noise, it

doesn't make them the heavyweight in the room.

you know what they say about empty vessels(not full

vessels in this case) making most noise. coins and bars

do like to clang a lot.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

 

coins and bars make up 20% demand.

industry makes up 60% demand.

what's more important 20% demand or 60% demand?

 

HH

That final year is based on 2018 data and assuming all mines are in operation and still shows a net balance of -80 million oz.

Industrial demand at 60% with 100% supply is gonna be tough to fill when supply is reduced substantially assuming a carried over deficit.

Edited by Uksilverstackers

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Uksilverstackers said:

Industrial demand at 60% with 100% supply is gonna be tough to fill when supply is reduced substantially assuming a carried over deficit.

 

unless coins and bars makes up for the reduction in demand

from industry this year, there's no point in keeping the supply

maintained at the same level as previous years. ie there's no

one to sell the supply to(unless you reduce the price).

 

this year industry will not require as much silver as previous

years.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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Posted (edited)

Silver is primarily a byproduct of other metal refining - so as other metal demand falls so does silver production. Investment demand has been very strong. We have seen very strong demand since the crash in stock markets. 

Edited by sixgun

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself. COVID-19 is a cover story for collapsing the economy. 

GLD / SLV Are Frauds - If You Want Gold And Silver Buy Physical

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“This year industry will not require as much silver as previous

years“


Possibly, but I guess we’ll have to see how the medical part of the Industrial demand and investment demand will pan out.

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1 minute ago, sixgun said:

Investment demand has been very strong.

 

investment demand has been a third of industrial demand

in the last 10 years. it is not the driving force for price

discovery due to demand and supply.

 

HH


trade in currency, save in gold

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1 minute ago, Uksilverstackers said:

“This year industry will not require as much silver as previous

years“


Possibly, but I guess we’ll have to see how the medical part of the Industrial demand and investment demand will pan out.

 

there is a quarantine, electronics products are delayed

similar to all other non important physical shipments.

there's no doubt about it. the only question is how big

will the reduction be.

(medical silver doesn't even show up on the data, my

guess is that it may be less than ethylene oxide which is

under 11 million troy ounces)

 

HH


trade in currency, save in gold

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1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

if you're claiming that the lions share of 60% demand

over the last 10 years is an irrelevant amount then that

could well be your opinion.

(what's more likely:

1, stock market turmoil creates a suppression in silver

prices. (conspiracy theories)

2, stock market turmoil creates a realisation of a reduction

in industrial demand for silver, causing the forward looking

futures prices for silver to drop.)

 

the figures don't lie, industry demand is about three times

that of coins and bars. whether people like it or not. just

because coins and bars like to make a lot of noise, it

doesn't make them the heavyweight in the room.

you know what they say about empty vessels(not full

vessels in this case) making most noise. coins and bars

do like to clang a lot.

 

HH

I’m simply observing that the larger moves in silver price I’ve observed over the last 15 years, up and down, rarely correlate to any change in industrial demand. 
I entirely agree that retail plays no part in price discovery, that was the point of my post.

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50 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

I’m simply observing that the larger moves in silver price I’ve observed over the last 15 years, up and down, rarely correlate to any change in industrial demand. 
I entirely agree that retail plays no part in price discovery, that was the point of my post.

I think you are suggesting, if i may, that the paper market is driving the price of the market?  I read a theory a while ago that this is the case, not just for silver but a range of commodities and assets, where the derivatives dominate trade.  i dont support it, the price action of the past month does give it weight. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shinus73 said:

I’m simply observing that the larger moves in silver price I’ve observed over the last 15 years, up and down, rarely correlate to any change in industrial demand. 
I entirely agree that retail plays no part in price discovery, that was the point of my post.

 

how so?

in 2011 industrial demand was the highest in the last 10 years

at 650 million ounces, which just happens to coincide with

silvers last 10 years price peak in 2011. is that a coincidence?

do people seriously believe the silver pumpers view that it's the

paper markets that is driving the price?

 

notice also how coins and bars peaked in 2015 at 290 million

during the same time frame. 2015 was the bottom in the silver

price for the time frame given. ie when coins and bars peaks is

maybe when people are bottom fishing the most? is this year's

coins and bars demand up because the spot price has dropped?

 

imo industry will pay high silver prices as long as they can pass

the cost onto the customer and make a decent profit. investment

demand however only likes to buy after the price has already

dropped.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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18 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

how so?

in 2011 industrial demand was the highest in the last 10 years

at 650 million ounces, which just happens to coincide with

silvers last 10 years price peak in 2011. is that a coincidence?

do people seriously believe the silver pumpers view that it's the

paper markets that is driving the price?

 

notice also how coins and bars peaked in 2015 at 290 million

during the same time frame. 2015 was the bottom in the silver

price for the time frame given. ie when coins and bars peaks is

maybe when people are bottom fishing the most? is this year's

coins and bars demand up because the spot price has dropped?

 

HH

If anything, 2011 proves the point. Started and finished the year at around $30, with a crazy move to $50 in April. That move wasn’t driven by changing industrial demand. Demand didn’t dry up on April 28th. I’m not a conspiracy nut, far from it in fact, but neither am I blind to what I see with my own eyes. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

If anything, 2011 proves the point. Started and finished the year at around $30, with a crazy move to $50 in April. That move wasn’t driven by changing industrial demand. Demand didn’t dry up on April 28th. I’m not a conspiracy nut, far from it in fact, but neither am I blind to what I see with my own eyes. 

 

you're looking at small monthly moves and I'm talking about

yearly stock replenishment averages. of course industry does

not dictate the monthly movements, sometimes they overstock

and sometimes they understock(on a monthly basis). in the

bigger picture they are driving the general flow of the market.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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I am not convinced that the price of silver is set by industrial demand.
Maybe the exact opposite because if the price is too high the demand will reduce or industry will try to find alternative materials.
The price is set by the cost of production / mining AND the financial institutions that trade silver contracts to one another and countries like China, India and Russia buying physical that don't trust the USA dollar long term.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Pete said:

I am not convinced that the price of silver is set by industrial demand.
Maybe the exact opposite because if the price is too high the demand will reduce or industry will try to find alternative materials.
The price is set by the cost of production / mining AND the financial institutions that trade silver contracts to one another and countries like China, India and Russia buying physical that don't trust the USA dollar long term.

 

how do you explain silver peaking in 2011 which is when

industrial demand also peaked? if it was physical demand

and supply shouldn't silver have peaked in 2015 when

demand for physical as a whole peaked?

it takes time and research to find new material replacements.

if the customer is willing to pay for it and net you a decent

profit then why not buy silver at a higher price and pass on the

cost?

industrial demand is like a trader, only interested in the margin.

the price is not as important as the margin. industry does not

buy silver to own. they buy it to sell on in various forms.

who do you think is ultimately on the other side of many

miners contracts(used by miners for hedging future supply)?

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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