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The coming Gold crash


Wonger
Message added by ChrisSilver

⚠️Please remain respectful to other members even if opinions differ. The truth is that no one knows what the future price of Gold will be and no one can predict with any certainty what it will be. People can make assumptions and guesses based on what they think will happen but at the end of the day anything can happen.

The future price of gold will either be the same, higher, or lower. So please debate respectfully of fellow members even if they have a different opinion or opposing views to the majority of members. 

No member will ever be banned for having a different opinion to another member but members who are rude and disrespectful do risk their account status. Please be polite and respectful of all members, we wish to maintain a pleasant place on TSF ⚠️

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11 minutes ago, Witcher said:

I don't think anyone is saying that deflation does not exist or isn't important. 
We know that they don't have to physically print. All they have to do is simply add a bunch of digital integers on a computer base. 
We already see them NOT minting enough physical coins. Hence, creating a coin shortage.  
What does that do?  Increases the value of metals because there is demand and they limit the supply.  
Everything they do is artificial. that is the whole point.... and the whole reason to hedge against it. 

Gold and currency are both ideas. Gold the metal is the medium for an idea that value can be transferred through time. In the material world gold the metal has relative few uses compared to its above ground stock. Yet the idea it embodies (money) gives it value (at the moment). That idea is shared by crypto currency by the way, which has no material value, but value as money. Go figure.

Currency can also embody the idea of money, it has done so in the past via the interest rate. However currency is primarily the idea of exchange, or rather the means for exchange that is most effective, especially today in which it can be entirely digital (crypto currency competes here too, unlike gold). You are correct in that the medium has less material value than gold, but what does that matter when the value of them both has very little to do with the material? 

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36 minutes ago, Witcher said:

I don't think anyone is saying that deflation does not exist or isn't important. 
We know that they don't have to physically print. All they have to do is simply add a bunch of digital integers on a computer base. 
We already see them NOT minting enough physical coins. Hence, creating a coin shortage.  
What does that do?  Increases the value of metals because there is demand and they limit the supply.  
Everything they do is artificial. that is the whole point.... and the whole reason to hedge against it. 

Apologies for quoting the same post twice. The system is debt based and the issue is liquidity, unless central banks can get currency to where it is needed we will see defaults which will lead to collapse. They can 'print' what appears to be insane amounts, but if that ends up in the wrong places it will have very little effect on preventing deflation while asset prices rise. Hence the direct nature of stimulus these past months. Direct injections of liquidity into the economy. 

The risk is deflation. Inflation will come of course but it is years away. You are right to hedge. 

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3 hours ago, mr-dead said:

who faired better after the crash, someone holding their wealth in gold or cash in the bank?

I presume it would be far easier exchanging gold for dollars to buy local goods over worthless local currency?

Not allowed to buy gold without all sorts of shenanigans. 

Why exchange the gold for dollars when you'd just already have the dollars. People stacked dollars there, Zimbabwe, not gold. 

I see what you're getting at, and possibly in the UK with the right (catastrophic) situation having gold would at least allow you to leave the country and take a substantial amount of wealth away discreetly in a compact way. 

But I just don't buy this idea that everyone will abruptly start directly accepting gold and (especially not silver) as payment for everyday things, let alone larger infrequent things like cars or houses etc. 

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7 hours ago, Witcher said:

The time of the Lord's long-suffering may come to an end...  and who is prepared?   (no pre-trib rapture so I hope no one believes in that false doctrine). 

Agreed, that doctrine has fooled many many people.

7 hours ago, SilverPirate007 said:

I’m a prepper so I have no worries about any event. I just don’t think it likely. Just a personal opinion of course.

I'm a prepper too but being prepared doesn't mean it won't be difficult or ugly. If society goes sideways it'll be tough on everyone, just less tough on those who are prepared. 

7 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men.

Yep, that's the nature of the world system we're presently stuck in. Psalm 82 says that the world powers have already been judged for their wickedness and injustice. We're just waiting for the execution on judgement day.

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22 hours ago, Wonger said:

You are entitled to your own opinion, the fact is you offered me a straight forward bet either Gold LBMA am or pm fix drops below $500 or it does not. However you then tried adding a clause which you think is easily defined, I am showing you its not and can never be so. The following question of "What if the Fed announces US Treasury yield curve targeting revaluing the USD via US Treasury purchases made through the US Treasury on the Feds behalf?" is fully understood by myself I can assure you, its a revaluation of the USD orchestrated  by the FED (Non Government entity) but executed through the US Treasury (Government entity) You can post here all you want accusing me of avoiding the bet, the simple truth is you have tried to add a clause and it seems you do not understand the ramification, unless you define this clause there is no bet! 

"you think is easily defined, I am showing you its not and can never be so.

...

unless you define this clause there is no bet!"

The FED has never been fully private, it has been enabled by the state in the first place but now it has even been attached to the treasury by presidential order. All of this wouldn't even matter because I made it clear, it needs to be a revaluation by government act (or at least presidential order). Who carries out details of this swap old US Dollar against new US Dollar doesn't matter at all.

This being said, my assumption that you would avoid the bet by coming up with endless questions about the details of how a revaluation could be carried out - well, you have just confirmed it, see your quote that I have made bold.

Edited by silenceissilver
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2 hours ago, silenceissilver said:

"you think is easily defined, I am showing you its not and can never be so.

...

unless you define this clause there is no bet!"

The FED has never been fully private, it has been enabled by the state in the first place but now it has even been attached to the treasury by presidential order. All of this wouldn't even matter because I made it clear, it needs to be a revaluation by government act (or at least presidential order). Who carries out details of this swap old US Dollar against new US Dollar doesn't matter at all.

This being said, my assumption that you would avoid the bet by coming up with endless questions about the details of how a revaluation could be carried out - well, you have just confirmed it, see your quote that I have made bold.

The Federal Reserve stock is privately held, its fully privately owned and I will not communicate with you any further as you refuse to deal with facts! 

Edited by Wonger
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45 minutes ago, Wonger said:

The Federal Reserve stock is privately held, its fully privately owned and I will not communicate with you any further as you refuse to deal with facts! 

I have named the state-elements, not challanged the owernship. Anyway, what a loss - well, actually yes, the loss of one ounce of gold

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8 minutes ago, Hennypenny said:

I'm actually genuinely concerned about Wonger's mental health. He is clearly delusional. 

I think, from reading his posts, he just likes winding people up. Nothing especially wrong with that, if that is how you get your jollies and people don’t mind indulging you. It is after all an open forum.

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4 hours ago, Wonger said:

The Federal Reserve stock is privately held, its fully privately owned and I will not communicate with you any further as you refuse to deal with facts! 

The Federal Reserve banks are owned by a cabal of banks and so controlled by their controlling holders - but the Fed has in effect been taken over by the US Treasury, all mixed up with the missing $trillions and ultimately the ESF and alphabet soup of criminal entities masquerading as arms of the 'Federal government'- it is the US Treasury/ESF pulling the strings but of course the UNITED STATES is a Federal corporation and so we come back to the usual suspects who shall not be named. 

Always cast your vote - Spoil your ballot slip. Put 'Spoilt Ballot - I do not consent.' These votes are counted. If you do not do this you are consenting to the tyranny. None of them are fit for purpose. 
A tyranny relies on propaganda and force. Once the propaganda fails all that's left is force.

COVID-19 is a cover story for the collapsing economy. Green Energy isn't Green and it isn't Renewable.

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Plenty of cash ready Wonger, July 29 is coming 😀



NO PHYSICAL TO BACK UP PAPER GOLD

But there are more factors that affect the gold price. There is a massive shortage of physical gold in the futures markets and LBMA system. As gold goes up and the holders of gold ask for physical delivery, there will be no gold available to settle the paper claims. There are only two potential outcomes. A default of the LBMA system which would also mean a total bank collapse. They will attempt to settle the claims in paper money but that will also lead to defaults eventually.

It is of course possible that central banks print trillions of dollars to save the banks so that they can buy the gold. The problem is that there is no gold available at current prices but only at multiples of the current price. And the more money central banks print, the less it will be worth and the more the gold will cost. So a real Sisyphean task that is guaranteed to fail.


Egon Von Greyerz
 

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42 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Nothing to see here 170 tones of physical deleivered from  comex!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-170-tons-physical-gold-were-just-delivered-comex-heres-why

Who wants to chip into the pot and buy a contract with me? 😂 

Decus et tutamen (an ornament and a safeguard)

YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OjxoCIsDbMgx7MM_l4CmA

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2 hours ago, KRO said:

Plenty of cash ready Wonger, July 29 is coming 😀



NO PHYSICAL TO BACK UP PAPER GOLD

But there are more factors that affect the gold price. There is a massive shortage of physical gold in the futures markets and LBMA system. As gold goes up and the holders of gold ask for physical delivery, there will be no gold available to settle the paper claims. There are only two potential outcomes. A default of the LBMA system which would also mean a total bank collapse. They will attempt to settle the claims in paper money but that will also lead to defaults eventually.

It is of course possible that central banks print trillions of dollars to save the banks so that they can buy the gold. The problem is that there is no gold available at current prices but only at multiples of the current price. And the more money central banks print, the less it will be worth and the more the gold will cost. So a real Sisyphean task that is guaranteed to fail.


Egon Von Greyerz
 

There is a third outcome, the LBMA trading desks close. Nothing to default, no collapse, trading goes on to Comex who follow suit. Sure some panic in the physical markets for gold, but wider impact is immediately contained. 

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On 24/07/2020 at 11:44, Wonger said:

The position will not be closed, it will be hedged, this will not even be considered under $2064

You still haven't explained how starting to hedge your position at $2064 (a $200 plus loss on your short position incidently) is any different to closing part of your position.

Hedging at this stage is effectively locking in your loss. You won't lose any more when gold continues to rise but also you won't make your money back if it retraces to your starting position.

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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On 25/07/2020 at 09:32, silenceissilver said:

The FED has never been fully private

I will not enter into any bet with anyone who refuses to deal with fact and reality, the Fed is private and to suggest otherwise is absolutely absurd!

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22 hours ago, silenceissilver said:

I have named the state-elements, not challanged the owernship.

More made up nonsense as the poster goes along trying to wriggle out of admitting they are wrong and they expect me to enter into a bet with them? 😁

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13 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

You still haven't explained how starting to hedge your position at $2064 (a $200 plus loss on your short position incidently) is any different to closing part of your position.

Hedging at this stage is effectively locking in your loss. You won't lose any more when gold continues to rise but also you won't make your money back if it retraces to your starting position.

There is a huge difference between hedging a position with derivatives (options in this case) and closing out a position!, next up lets be having you! 😁

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