The coming Gold crash

[Melon]

8 minutes ago, Wonger said:

I posted on here nearly two years ago that I expect Gold to go down to $400, what have you predicted then, lets here it shall we! 😁 

Well I guess by buying gold I implicitly predicted it would go up, think my crystal ball is better than your crystal ball so far 😆

[Nick1368]

what I don't understand about @Wonger is that if he is so pessimistic about PM's as he says he is, what is he doing on a  precious Metals forum then ?

[Minimalist]

8 minutes ago, Nick1368 said:

what I don't understand about @Wonger is that if he is so pessimistic about PM's as he says he is, what is he doing on a  precious Metals forum then ?

Because hes pushing an agenda.

[silenceissilver]

56 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Do you really think that consumers buying food and amazon goodies will overwhelm the complete deflationary collapse of global securities resulting in inflation pushing up Gold? Really? 

Troll confirmed (once again). It's the rescue packages that will lead to hyperinflation and I said that.

[Minimalist]

1 minute ago, silenceissilver said:

Troll confirmed (once again). It's the rescue packages that will lead to hyperinflation and I said that.

Wouldnt bother mate, hes clearly at it for some reason. You have to wonder what his motive is behind him especially at this time during a depression. I assume, with my own judgement, hes an actor/conspirator.

[silenceissilver]

4 hours ago, richatthecroft said:

@WongerThis current worldwide situation is unprecedented- I’m pretty sure there is no chart or stat in history to liken it to.

That's true in many respects but there is a very interesting parallel to Weimar Germany before the hyper inflation. Many Germans in the factories suddenly stopped working because of the occupation of the Ruhr in the 1923 by French troops. There was amassive deflationary shock, just like now

Now, guess how the government reacted - with massive rescue packages. We know the outcome back then and if the Corona hysteria doesn't stop very soon and the governments follow through with their "rescue packages" for the mess they themselves created in many ways, from allowing and supporting fiat money creation to the Corona madness, the outcome will be the same.

We know the murder rate and general criminality rate spiked dramatically during the Weimar hyperinflation.

I'm sure the governments will find a good explanation for that, too. Blame people like me for example who call the lockdown madness.

[Wonger]

39 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Wouldnt bother mate, hes clearly at it for some reason. You have to wonder what his motive is behind him especially at this time during a depression. I assume, with my own judgement, hes an actor/conspirator.

What with $300t of global debt and you think a lousy government package will overcome this deflation, are you serious? 

Deflation before inflation, no exceptions ever in history!

Edited March 25, 2020 by Wonger

[Wonger]

If your all stacking regardless of price then why are you all so unhappy that Ive predicted $400 Gold? I would of thought you all be cheering it on with me! 😁

And I see that Jamie is on the offer already!

Edited March 25, 2020 by Wonger

[Minimalist]

1 hour ago, Wonger said:

If your all stacking regardless of price then why are you all so unhappy that Ive predicted $400 Gold? I would of thought you all be cheering it on with me! 😁

And I see that Jamie is on the offer already!

.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Minimalist
Confusion.

[Wonger]

5 hours ago, dicker said:

Great to have a diversity of views on the forum!

Would be great to know your rationale

Best

Dicker

Dicker, its many things really, mainly the COT futures positioning (ive been futures trading over 20 years) but even without the COT data, you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears, but you dont get inflation here, you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! 

[Roy]

1 hour ago, silenceissilver said:

Troll confirmed (once again). 

I don't think @Wonger is trolling.

He has a different point of view, that's all. Perhaps he can see something that others cannot?

Edited March 25, 2020 by Roy

[Kman]

1 hour ago, Wonger said:

Dicker, its many things really, mainly the COT futures positioning (ive been futures trading over 20 years) but even without the COT data, you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears, but you dont get inflation here, you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! 

Could you dumb this down more like you're explaining to a 5 year old

you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears -  what does this mean?

you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! and this?

Thanks 

 

[Wonger]

5 minutes ago, Kman said:

Could you dumb this down more like you're explaining to a 5 year old

you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears -  what does this mean?

you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! and this?

Thanks 

 

Ok your in the sweet shop and your excited looking at all the sweets as they look so damn tasty,, you chose your sweets and go to the counter only to find you lost your money on the way to the sweet shop, your now deflated, but it was avoidable if you had only done your homework and checked you still had your money before choosing your sweets!

[Kman]

3 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Ok your in the sweet shop and your excited looking at all the sweets as they look so damn tasty,, you chose your sweets and go to the counter only to find you lost your money on the way to the sweet shop, your now deflated, but it was avoidable if you had only done your homework and checked you still had your money before choosing your sweets!

Thanks, this just confused me more 🙈

Why is gold going down because money has been lost for sweets?

I'm not even sure what gold is in this analogy.. the sweets? 🙈 why would the sweets cost less because someone lost their money?

Edited March 25, 2020 by Kman

[Wonger]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

Thanks, this just confused me more 🙈

Why is gold going down because money has been lost for sweets?

I'm not even sure what gold is in this analogy.. the sweets? 🙈 why would the sweets cost less because someone lost their money?

I just thought I could bullshit you because you was only age 5, you know like CNBC does! 😁

Edited March 25, 2020 by Wonger

[silenceissilver]

6 hours ago, Wonger said:

What with $300t of global debt and you think a lousy government package will overcome this deflation, are you serious? 

Deflation before inflation, no exceptions ever in history!

First deflation before Hyperinflation was the more likely scenario all along. As said before, the Corona version of the crash is now about to shorten the deflation phase of the crisis. Even if not, gold and silver were expected to fall at the beginning of the crisis and to both have their time during the crisis, gold first, silver later but stronger.

And yes, a supply and demand shock that we have now meeting more money devalues money of course. It's about to go directly into the real economy not into the bubbles as in the past (banking rescue packages after 2008). Of course the bubble money is also still there and ready to flood the real economy once a hyperinflation is being triggered

Edited March 25, 2020 by silenceissilver

[Abyss]

Putting aside @Wonger wild west predictions two camps one believe have deflation followed by inflation/hyper-inflation and the other camp believe no deflation just inflation/hyper-inflation. In either scenario provided have a strong hand and are holding onto the physical Gold you will have at the very least preserved your purchasing power. Looking back at history before Weimar republic hyperinflation Gold lost 40% value imply $1700 trading back to $1000. Everything happening lighting speed and we have had the fastest sell off in equities in history.

We could already had the deflation of Gold $1700 to $1450 15% and today tech savvy clued up world everyone wants to protect their assets and Gold one of those assets types serves this purpose.

I believe @Wonger can buy Gold at $400 as soon completes his purchase of the following item

 

 

Unfortunately Emmett Brown gone into Self-Isolation no going back in time to 2004 for @Wonger to buy $400 Gold.

 

[sovereignsteve]

7 hours ago, Kman said:

Could you dumb this down more like you're explaining to a 5 year old

you can feel the sentiment is red hot on Gold especially after the Monetary and fiscal packages exciting inflation fears -  what does this mean?

you get deflation and everyone is on the same side of the boat and its sailing into a storm and about to capsize! and this?

Thanks 

 

Also he keeps producing these COT charts and doesn't explain how he gets his wild predictions from them. This data is issued on a Friday using positions on the previous Tuesday. A lot can change in 3 days. If you're looking at the chart on a Thursday, the data is 9 days old!

He will know there are several ways of analysing this data and any interpretation is open to debate and margins of error. If it were an foolproof way of predicting the future direction of markets, everyone would be using it and have no need for any other form of analysis.

[Wonger]

9 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Also he keeps producing these COT charts and doesn't explain how he gets his wild predictions from them. This data is issued on a Friday using positions on the previous Tuesday. A lot can change in 3 days. If you're looking at the chart on a Thursday, the data is 9 days old!

He will know there are several ways of analysing this data and any interpretation is open to debate and margins of error. If it were an foolproof way of predicting the future direction of markets, everyone would be using it and have no need for any other form of analysis.

 

[richatthecroft]

Just now, Wonger said:

 

Meaningless in these unprecedented times...

or perhaps you have bought this...

 

44 minutes ago, Abyss said:

I believe @Wonger can buy Gold at $400 as soon completes his purchase of the following item

 

 

 

[Kman]

@Wonger from the information you're interpreting, does it give a time frame? if you're right when should we be seeing it drop below $1000 and then down to $400

 

 

[sovereignsteve]

16 minutes ago, Wonger said:

 

Ok so explain what you are seeing in that chart.

or are you simply the coffee boy gofer on some trading floor?

[Wonger]

Look at the COT report on the 23rd April the commercials held their lowest short positions, its no coincidence that Gold bottomed around $1266 (arrow) the COT report was telling you that the commercials were now building short contracts by selling the opposing long contracts to the speculators, the COT was telling you to buy Gold and it carried on building until recently when we had record breaking shorts held by the commercials, the speculators have clearly now stopped buying contracts, so the commercials will manipulate the price down causing the speculators to close out their long contracts at losses which is the commercials gain, its wash rinse repeat ever since futures markets first began!😉    

Edited March 25, 2020 by Wonger

[Auricsstash]

2 minutes ago, Kman said:

@Wonger from the information you're interpreting, does it give a time frame? if you're right when should we be seeing it drop below $1000 and then down to $400

 

 

He doesn’t actually give any sort of time frame his silver apocalypse soon thread started in February 2019!!! 

11 hours ago, Wonger said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-gold-time-buy-currency-last-resort 🤣

I fully expect Gold to close down tomorrow $300!

Apart from this one which is so far down 16$ he also doesn’t seem to understand the gold market doesn’t close until Friday... 🤷‍♂️ 

[Wonger]

19 minutes ago, Auricsstash said:

He doesn’t actually give any sort of time frame his silver apocalypse soon thread started in February 2019!!! 

Apart from this one which is so far down 16$ he also doesn’t seem to understand the gold market doesn’t close until Friday... 🤷‍♂️ 

If you read the thread posts you will see that I covered my initial Silver shorts and was then long Silver going into these crazy high prices and crazy COT readings, Ive only recently started coming back on here, but when Silver rallied close to $19 in Jan I was then out all longs and shorting futures contracts, because to trade aginst the COT flow when the readings are that extreme is simply crazy

Edited March 25, 2020 by Wonger