Bailing out this cycle no matter what

[mr-dead]

I am starting to debate if this cycle is the time to get out of precious metals no matter what the price outcome.

All the stars are aligning from a global economic slump, brexit and a pandemic thrown in on top making it a once in a lifetime set of circumstances coming together.

Scenario 1: Gold pumps over the next few months significantly exceeding all time highs so a good time to cash out then buy back into yield producing sectors like property/stocks etc. when things start to turn around.

Scenario 2: Gold goes no where due to complete market control by the powers above, if this is the case under these extreme circumstances then the chances of significant gains in more normalised times are slim to none.  Having funds tied up in precious metals means you are missing out on dividends and returns on your wealth.

Would be interested to get others thoughts.

 

[JunkBond]

Good post. 👍

Waiting for Sixgun and HH to turn up. 🤼‍♂️

[Abyss]

Because this cycle so different from other cycles I am thinking about adding to my PM position at the right price rather than selling any of it.

Scenario 3: Due to the excessive bails out of every industry and money printing to support the repo market and then helicopter currency velocity of fiat currency increases and we finally see hyperinflation in developed economies in the World.

[Platinum]

This is a time to buy PMs, not sell. 

That’s my two cents.

[mr-dead]

1 minute ago, Platinum said:

This is a time to buy PMs, not sell. 

That’s my two cents.

not taking about tomorrow or any time soon, looking ahead a few months

[Platinum]

Just now, mr-dead said:

not taking about tomorrow or any time soon, looking ahead a few months

I was talking years.

[daca]

32 minutes ago, JunkBond said:

Good post. 👍

Waiting for Sixgun and HH to turn up. 🤼‍♂️

[Platinum]

Quick - pop some popcorn!🍿

[goldking]

The plummet in PMs was to be expected.  It happened in the 2008 recession and we're seeing a repeat of that right now.  It just hasn't been officially announced because that would completely kill dead their wonderful stawk market, and they can't have that.

If you're wanting yield generating 'stuff' then gold is only 2nd to silver in being the worst choice you could have made.

[daca]

16 minutes ago, Platinum said:

Quick - pop some popcorn!🍿

Got mine, watching gold  getting 

[mr-dead]

6 minutes ago, goldking said:

The plummet in PMs was to be expected.  It happened in the 2008 recession and we're seeing a repeat of that right now.  It just hasn't been officially announced because that would completely kill dead their wonderful stawk market, and they can't have that.

If you're wanting yield generating 'stuff' then gold is only 2nd to silver in being the worst choice you could have made.

my thoughts are considering the global recession, brexit and a pandemic it's now or never for gold to shine and prove its worth

[JunkBond]

12 minutes ago, daca said:

Got mine, watching gold  getting 

It will bounce back when Trump declares a state of emergency this evening.

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, mr-dead said:

cenario 2: Gold goes no where due to complete market control by the powers above, if this is the case under these extreme circumstances then the chances of significant gains in more normalised times are slim to none.  Having funds tied up in precious metals means you are missing out on dividends and returns on your wealth.

I have been pondering this scenario for a while now. I sometimes think the youngsters on here will be OK but the way things are going, us oldies may not live to see the rewards🤔

[GoldElliott]

3 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

I have been pondering this scenario for a while now. I sometimes think the youngsters on here will be OK but the way things are going, us oldies may not live to see the rewards🤔

As a 'youngster' I collect PMs as a form of savings. It provides me with a hobby and interest which I can spend my money on without really spending any money, as at any point I can liquidate my 'stack' for at least what I paid for it and hopefully substantially more. In the meantime I can build a collection of nice coins and pieces of PM with history and appeal.

When I want to buy my first house I intend to sell my PMs which have grown substantially more than any cash ISA or bank savings. I also have shares in a stocks and shares ISA however as this week shows, diversifying your portfolio is key

but that's just my opinion

[Zhorro]

If you do take your money out of PMs, where are you going to put it?  In the bank?  Yesterday the US FED announced it was putting $1.5 trillion (TRILLION) into the REPO market.  Back in September we were told that the REPO market was having temporary "plumbing" problems - it now looks as if a whole new "plumbing" system is required!  So, be careful with what you do with your money.

[Tn21]

Personally I think there is a lot more downside to the stock markets. With that in mind I don't think the markets fully tumble till after the us election and it can possibly be a while after. 

Between now and November we will be riding waves. 

Metals most probably will also get hit like in 2008 when everything saw red. 

In my opinion a lot more red to see in the coming months years.  

 

 

[sixgun]

47 minutes ago, daca said:

i'm here now...

[sixgun]

The Central Banks have promised QE to infinity. How might you guard against the effects of that?
Many would say keep hold of your gold.

[mr-dead]

Just now, sixgun said:

The Central Banks have promised QE to infinity. How might you guard against the effects of that?
Many would say keep hold of your gold.

if QE to infinity is being used to pump stocks to infinity then stocks?

[sixgun]

1 minute ago, mr-dead said:

if QE to infinity is being used to pump stocks to infinity then stocks?

But the purchasing power of your GBP is tending to zero. The Venezuelan stock market was the best performer in the world - 

[goldking]

17 minutes ago, mr-dead said:

my thoughts are considering the global recession, brexit and a pandemic it's now or never for gold to shine and prove its worth

I've said it before - look at the price at the start of the year and look where it was a few days ago.  Completely unrealistic for it to see support at £1300 when it was only £1150 3 months ago.  The continuing trend from the first 2.5 months of the year would have put it at around £1230 by the end of the this month if it had kept at the same pace so seeing it at £1230 today should not come as any surprise, especially given the huge turmoil in the stawk markets - in fact I think the price is holding up very well, all things considered.

Gold is a long game and a slow burner.  Buy it, bury it in your garden and forget about it until you come to retire and need some cash.  Any big upticks are caused by fear buying and big monetary changes like announcement of QE and rate cuts.  It's short-lived and typically simmers back again a few days/weeks later.  Right now people and businesses are worried about their jobs and how/if they're going to survive the coronavirus lockdowns so they're liquidating 'everything' for cash.  Confidence has gone from the markets and people are sitting on the fence to see how far this is going to crash, so right now there are more sellers of PMs than buyers = price goes down until it stabilises and confidence will start to return.

Just look at the 2009 chart.  Confidence evaporated shortly into the recession in February and the prices tumbled for months, down over £120 in 4 months.  Confidence came back in June as things started to stabilise and then a buying spree began which lasted over 2 years and saw the price go up by over £600.  The same could well happen this year.  It could be a lot a worse as the 'bubble' is a lot more inflated. Equally, it could only be a shallow dip if enough people buy it, perhaps because they can see that we're rapidly heading down the same path as Venezuela and Zimbabwe in terms of fiat currency value and purchasing power.

Gold has "proven its worth" for thousands of years.  It doesn't have to do anything as it's doing it already.  Look at the full jigsaw picture instead of concentrating on just one piece.  

[Kookaburracollector]

At this moment in time cash is king.

What we are witnessing in the financial markets now, is without a doubt, the biggest crime scene in history. People who have been prudent through their lives, and saved for retirement, have been sold down the river with negative ‘real’ interest rates. Where do you go to get a risk free return on your capital, and live on it.
I consider myself to be pretty financially astute, but at this moment in time, I have no idea how this is going to end..for that reason I am sitting on mainly cash and physical gold and silver.

[harrygill111]

Gold and silver for the long haul... not touching the stock market till its half of where it is now 

[Stu]

@mr-dead you appear to have made some vg positions in the past, I would trust your gut instinct as well as your head. May be worth top slicing a bar or two by selling if and when the markets move up? Sell averaging or whatever the term is. 

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Added 0 minutes later...

Incidently, I'm sitting tight for the next 5 to 10 years I think.

[5huggy]

2 hours ago, daca said:

Got mine, watching gold  getting 

and we are joining in too!