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1 minute ago, JosephM said:

@HawkHybrid isnt it also true time in the market beats timing the market. If you drip feed monthly amounts you will do better overtime than trying to buy the bottom?

 

that would depend on how good you are at timing the bottom.

time in the markets is not always a good thing. eg the s&p500

took about 13 years to exceed it's year 2000 highs.

you should always look to buy at stronger levels of support.

currently for the s&p500 that strong support is ~1800. should

we get there it would be another 25% drop for many indices

from current levels. there is little to be lost by waiting, but an

additional 25% drop from current levels could be well worth the

wait. the current bounce is weak so the odds still favour more

downside.

averaging in when prices are close to support is probably a

good compromise.

 

HH


trade in currency, save in gold

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17 minutes ago, Kman said:

If you had to guess, how likely is that? and what kind of time frame

 

 

in theory the most likely time frame is may-september 2020.

whilst the charts do favour it happening, timing on the charts

is much less predictable at the moment. the picture should get

clearer in a month or so.

imo for investors the downside for waiting shouldn't be very big.

 

HH


trade in currency, save in gold

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Never try to time the market, but I am waiting for a huge dip before I put some money in the market again. I´ve been using degiro and its working great. I´d suggest you invest in ETF because they cover a big part of the market. Degiro have a free etf list that you pay zero fees when investing for the first time (and still free if u invest over 1k€ any other time)

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I have been buying oil majors the past few weeks, the ones that survive this turmoil will do very well in the next cycle imo. 

Interestingly I noticed that the Moneyweek magazine are using the same headlines today as back in 2015, I distinctly remember seeing a front cover that had the title "Drowning in oil" back then. Then I see the same headline (different picture) on the front of the same magazine a couple of weeks ago "Drowning in oil". The only difference between 2015 and now that worries me is sentiment is still positive for oil, despite the headline money week recommended BP and Shell as a buy, where as back in the day no one wanted oil, it was the end of oil, oil was worthless... 

I am averaging into several oil majors this year, the deflationary period ahead will take its toll on the stock market but with oil near the bottom (maybe a few percent downside left in it) I expect to see decent returns including dividends later in the decade when the inflationary pressures from the latest bailout plus expected government recovery spending takes it toll in the late 2020's.

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49 minutes ago, KDave said:

I have been buying oil majors the past few weeks, the ones that survive this turmoil will do very well in the next cycle imo. 

What are oil majors? is that a stock term or am I being dumb and it just means major oil companies 

Is there a benefit between buying with the different ones? like shell and bp, rather than just putting it all into one 

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oil majors = major oil companies

I would be cautious going into oil at this late stage into the cycle.

the risk to reward might not be as good as it appears.

 

HH


trade in currency, save in gold

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42 minutes ago, Kman said:

What are oil majors? is that a stock term or am I being dumb and it just means major oil companies 

Is there a benefit between buying with the different ones? like shell and bp, rather than just putting it all into one 

Apologies kman yes I mean major oil companies BP, shell, Exxon, Total, chevron I have focused only on larger companies that will weather the storm and be around to take advantage of the inflationary environment in a few years time. I believe there will be much higher demand for oil driven by government reflationary policy, likely direct investment in large infrastructure projects. This will be both in order to inflate the debt being created now to prevent deflationary collapse, and to stimulate an industrial based recovery cycle. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

oil majors = major oil companies

I would be cautious going into oil at this late stage into the cycle.

the risk to reward might not be as good as it appears.

 

HH

Its the next cycle that is of interest late 2020's to cash in. The consumer cycle is ending, I think the next cycle will be similar to the 1930's economy. Major projects funded by government, motorways, rail (high speed?), Perhaps even ambitious projects related to renewable energy, tidal perhaps, there will certainly be enormous demand for energy. 

Edited by KDave

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, KDave said:

Its the next cycle that is of interest late 2020's to cash in. The consumer cycle is ending, I think the next cycle will be similar to the 1930's economy. Major projects funded by government, motorways, rail (high speed?), Perhaps even ambitious projects related to renewable energy, tidal perhaps, there will certainly be enoumous demand for energy. 

 

what if the 2020's plays out similar to 2000-2010?

or maybe 2010-2020?

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

trade in currency, save in gold

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8 minutes ago, KDave said:

Apologies kman yes I mean major oil companies BP, shell, Exxon, Total, chevron I have focused only on larger companies that will weather the storm and be around to take advantage of the inflationary environment in a few years time. I believe there will be much higher demand for oil driven by government reflationary policy, likely direct investment in large infrastructure projects. This will be both in order to inflate the debt being created now to prevent deflationary collapse, and to stimulate an industrial based recovery cycle. 

Thanks

So say you have £5000, would it be better to split that between 5? 3? or just 1? or ultimately should it all end up pretty similar if its the big oil companies 

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I like the play on oil.

I put some small funds into OXY as a "if" it survives it should do very well in the long term.

Still waiting to get into companies such as Tesla, Amazon, Google but I also believe there is more crashing to come. I would love to purchase Tesla at the $300 range if we get there. I may ease funds into these stocks bit by bit if they crash.


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6 hours ago, Kman said:

Thanks

So say you have £5000, would it be better to split that between 5? 3? or just 1? or ultimately should it all end up pretty similar if its the big oil companies 

What I am doing as a working example rather than advice of course - I am buying them all though I only have BP and Shell from the recent falls, the US listed are next on the list for when I have more to invest; these companies all pay dividends to hold the shares and are large enough to survive the short term. I think the majors offer a good balance of risk reward, there is always risk one or more could go bust hence why I am not sticking just to one or two. We will see how it works out in a few years.

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6 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

what if the 2020's plays out similar to 2000-2010?

or maybe 2010-2020?

 

HH

Perhaps it will but I can't see it, the consumer is tapped out, I think inflation will be the aim, double figures by the end of this decade more like the 70's than the 00's and 10's. Who knows though maybe we get a renewed consumer cycle but demographics and the 7 trillion about to be printed globally make that unlikely imo. 

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6 hours ago, cravethatcoin said:

I like the play on oil.

I put some small funds into OXY as a "if" it survives it should do very well in the long term.

Still waiting to get into companies such as Tesla, Amazon, Google but I also believe there is more crashing to come. I would love to purchase Tesla at the $300 range if we get there. I may ease funds into these stocks bit by bit if they crash.

Have to be wary about the potential upsides for some, the market was very overbought end of 2019/2020.  I highlight this because you've mentioned 3 good examples. Tesla got pumped up on speculation and is still above its price 6 months ago, has a market cap above VW, does that make any sense? Amazon is a more solid option but while off its high its already bounced back to its price start of year and a good 10% up on 6mth.  Alphabet (Google) is probably best as it remains ~15% off the 6mth price and stayed there. 

If looking for value and recovery need to look back through the past 6-12mth chart to filter out market hubris that may not be back for a while, and understand some of the fundamentals of the business (Tesla shouldnt be anywhere near the price it is for a small car maker). 

The oil play is good for those that survive, the current price war will crush many smaller ones.  Im looking at trading the oil price directly, it wont stay around $20 forever, be back to $50-60 when everyone grows up and demand returns.

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There is perhaps another few dollars downside in oil, depending on the CB reaction and whether they print enough will determine the extent of the collapse 10 dollars is not out of the question but it won't be for long. After that the government will be spending on infrastructure into the decade to lead the recovery much as after the great depression. I expect 200 plus dollar oil by end of the decade thanks to demand and the inflation caused. 

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I have been buying the big oil companies when they have been at the bottom I have also been buying USD/RUB on dips then getting out  as an oil short. 


Always looking to obtain Gold.  Feel free to contact me

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Bank sector (brave...oh you gotta be brave!) a contrarian investment?

The health crisis could easily turn into a financial crisis, that’s obviously the worry now but look back at 08/09 charts. I remember looking at barc 50p, it was a multibagger. History repeat or this time has it (debt, bad loans) gone too far? Guess the next few months will tell.

https://www.ifre.com/story/2304353/march-madness-hammers-europe-us-bank-stocks-l8n2bn2ux

 

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5 hours ago, Martlet said:

Have to be wary about the potential upsides for some, the market was very overbought end of 2019/2020.  I highlight this because you've mentioned 3 good examples. Tesla got pumped up on speculation and is still above its price 6 months ago, has a market cap above VW, does that make any sense? Amazon is a more solid option but while off its high its already bounced back to its price start of year and a good 10% up on 6mth.  Alphabet (Google) is probably best as it remains ~15% off the 6mth price and stayed there. 

If looking for value and recovery need to look back through the past 6-12mth chart to filter out market hubris that may not be back for a while, and understand some of the fundamentals of the business (Tesla shouldnt be anywhere near the price it is for a small car maker). 

The oil play is good for those that survive, the current price war will crush many smaller ones.  Im looking at trading the oil price directly, it wont stay around $20 forever, be back to $50-60 when everyone grows up and demand returns.

I agree completely.

Looking at the charts of the examples I sent they are all over priced. i don't want to buy them if they are the same price as they were 1 year ago.

I want to buy companies that have crashed enough to be the same price as 2014 and early range.

That's why I have been holding back on those companies. Here is my current portfolio, high risk yes (some could potentially go bankrupt such as the smaller airlines and cruise company) but if any of these companies survive then I think my £500 investment could be more like a few thousand in 5 years+. I don't care that these companies have crashed more, I am only investing for the long term also with money that I can afford to loose.

Screenshot 2020-04-02 at 13.17.10.png


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19 minutes ago, Martlet said:

@cravethatcoin I raised an eyebrow at Boeing before (they already had issues with 737 Max), already proven wrong there.  Some of the others are indeed "brave". :lol:

I agree :) High risk, high reward but most importantly with money that I can afford to loose and a existing diversified portfolio.

I know Boeing has issues but I do think they fall into the "too big to fail" category. I could see some of my other stocks going out of business but if even 1 or 2 survive I should do well.

I didn't just pick these because of the big loss. I looked at the historic price and ensured a stable upward trend over many years.


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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, cravethatcoin said:

I agree :) High risk, high reward but most importantly with money that I can afford to loose and a existing diversified portfolio.

I know Boeing has issues but I do think they fall into the "too big to fail" category. I could see some of my other stocks going out of business but if even 1 or 2 survive I should do well.

I didn't just pick these because of the big loss. I looked at the historic price and ensured a stable upward trend over many years.

Good on you, if any time was the time to gamble it's as these lows, much more fun too

Atm I'm probably going to put money IAG, Shell and BP for sure, I think that's where I will put the bulk of it 

Then look at some more speculative ones to put £100-£250 in for fun 

These are what I've written down so far to look into more and think about, are any of these dumb? @ everyone

IAG
Shell
McDonalds
J D Wetherspoon plc
BP
Starbucks
itv
William Hill
Cineworld Group
Aviva
coca cola 

 

 

Edited by Kman

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