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Palladium has now crossed 2 - 1 ratio with platinum.


DarkChameleon

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I wouldn't touch either. Palladium seems to have risen due to petrol engines having been pushed as alternative for the diesel engines due too the high fine dust emissions from diesel engines having fallen out of favour. However petrol engines have higher CO2-emissions, which is clearly not a very good alternative given global warming.

I don't have a good feeling about either and mid to long term I see a shift towards electric and hydrogen. Time will tell.

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  • 4 weeks later...

For information, this week's edition of Money Week carries an article that is bullish about platinum, based on the prediction that hydrogen fuel cell cars will become popular in the next 10 years, and these require a platinum catalyst.

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With the general exchange rate trend for platinum having been downwards in recent years, and I don't really see that change with the automotive more and more moving towards electric, it's a few too many red flags for me to go into platinum at this moment. But who knows if hydrogen fuel cell cars become an actual thing... :)

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On 08/11/2019 at 17:54, Bumble said:

For information, this week's edition of Money Week carries an article that is bullish about platinum, based on the prediction that hydrogen fuel cell cars will become popular in the next 10 years, and these require a platinum catalyst.

Good point. I didn't check whether either metal would be needed in a Hydrogen fuel cell.

Japan 2020 Olympics might give a boost to the hydrogen fuel industry. Below is an old article, but interesting info for Platinum investors.

https://www.gasworld.com/tokyo-2020-olympic-games-to-use-hydrogen-fuel-/2016200.article

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It's worth pointing out that despite what the Money Week article says, fuel cell cars are less efficient than battery vehicles and may not prove to be as popular. Also, many scientific groups are working to develop better versions of the catalyst, so that less platinum is needed. You may be better off investing in battery metals.

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15 hours ago, Bumble said:

It's worth pointing out that despite what the Money Week article says, fuel cell cars are less efficient than battery vehicles and may not prove to be as popular. Also, many scientific groups are working to develop better versions of the catalyst, so that less platinum is needed. You may be better off investing in battery metals.

Need to do more research, but I don't belief there will be enough battery metals like Lithium for global demand if transportation goes electric. Maybe combination if electric is hydrogen is needed.

 

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Lithium is not rare, though there have been some supply bottlenecks in recent years that resulted in the price rising temporarily. The main impact of battery metal demand is on nickel and cobalt. Battery companies are trying to develop battery chemistries that use less cobalt, because most of the world's supply comes from the Democractic Republic of Congo. A lot more copper will also be needed for BEVs, and some of the rare earth metals. It is a tough call to invest in battery metals, because if the world slips into recession, demand for industrial metals will fall.

Nevertheless, I think battery vehicles are a better proposition than fuel cells. Generating hydrogen from natural gas puts CO2 in the atmosphere. Generating it by electrolysis of water is expensive and inefficient. Generating hydrogen, storing it, transporting it, and then consuming it in a fuel cell is thermodynamically inefficient. There is no infrastructure for transporting hydrogen, whereas there is an existing infrastructure for the transmission of electricity. The Japanese may be able to make it work in Japan, but I don't see it becoming that big elsewhere.

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Interesting article on Moneyweek suggesting that Pt/Pld substitution will happen in vehicles when the ratio gets to 1:2

https://moneyweek.com/517752/ready-to-motor-its-platinums-turn-to-shine/

 

"Palladium tends to be used in petrol engines, although rhodium is the more effective catalyst for tackling nitrous oxide emissions in petrol engines – around seven times more effective than palladium. There is no substitute for rhodium. Platinum’s main use, meanwhile, is in diesel vehicles. It can substitute for palladium in petrol engines, but this only tends to be economic when the palladium price is double that of platinum. If palladium is $2,000/oz, for example, and platinum $1,000, you will start to see substitution take place."

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