GOLD $1500 an oz

[Diogo]

What are your thoughts on this price should it be more or less???

[Frenchie]

I think there could be a retracement  to 1450 see 1380 $  from the present pull back (1515/1530$). This would be healthy and a really good entry point before the next rise way above the present highs by year's end.

That's my 2 cts of course 

[platinreloaded]

• I think, that the Interest Rates in USA go down and Gold could goe up like a rocket:
• 17. und 18. September 2019* about 1.550 $ **
• 29. und 30. Oktober 2019* about 1.700 $ **
• 10. und 11. Dezember 2019* about 1.750 $ **

* Interest Rate Decisions FED

**  believe it or leave it 

[Abyss]

When it comes physical Gold in your possession 1 oz of Gold is valued at 1 oz Gold. It has been 1 oz Gold 5,000 years ago and five thousand years from now it will still be 1 oz of Gold. When looking at price of Gold measured against US Dollar price then this one way to measure Gold. The spot price Gold will fluctuate on a daily basis. Taken some time but when you understand role Gold plays in the long term then the short term price fluctuations meaninglessness unless good at timing the market to make large purchases or involved in options/future trading on spot price of Gold.

Two post above tell you everything need to know, that is nobody know's what the future price of Gold will be in terms US Dollars. Gold on a very long term bull market and if you holding onto the physical Gold for this time frame it will protect your current purchasing power.

[goldmember44]

$1,500 is the new reality in gold prices, we better get used to it. And I think there's much upside potential from here onwards. 

[SilverDuck]

2 hours ago, Frenchie said:

I think there could be a retracement  to 1450 see 1380 $  from the present pull back (1515/1530$). This would be healthy and a really good entry point before the next rise way above the present highs by year's end.

That's my 2 cts of course 

My view is that while I love shorting gold long term due to the positive carry build up, I think market now is in the fair price zone for the current level of tensions. If we are to see a retrace, in my opinion we have to break the strong support confluence of the 200 EMA, the Trendline and the Monthly pivot point. If that fails I expect to reach the 1420-1430 zone as the next major support zone. 

I agree on the healthy nature of a retracement.

Major topics to follow for gold as far as I am concerned are: FED rate, trade war, brexit(to a lesser extent).

 

 

[KDave]

No one knows.

I am weighing on the side of a meaningful correction given that there have been no significant corrections since May 2019. The mining stocks are not pricing in this new high in gold indicating the market is factoring in a number of considerations but the main is that the move is not expected to be sustained. Seasonally gold falls into winter majority of the time. Short term I think we go lower for at least a couple of months. We will see. 

[Frenchie]

1 hour ago, SilverDuck said:

My view is that while I love shorting gold long term due to the positive carry build up, I think market now is in the fair price zone for the current level of tensions. If we are to see a retrace, in my opinion we have to break the strong support confluence of the 200 EMA, the Trendline and the Monthly pivot point. If that fails I expect to reach the 1420-1430 zone as the next major support zone. 

 

Your EMA stands for 200 Exponentially moving average  ?  I ask you this because mine is at 1360, and the MA200 is at 1345. in daily...My 50MA is at 1472 and the 100MA at 1399

My ascending oblique supports are around 1480 (coming from 05/30/19) and next support around 1440 (coming from 02/07/19). My Fibbonacci retracements from 05/30/19) are 1488, 1446, 1412 and 1378 (respectively 23,6-38,2-50-61,8%) 

There is an interesting confluence of supports around 1470-1480 zone (50MA, 23,6% Fib, ascending support) - 1430-1450 zone (38,2%FIB- second ascending support) and 1370-1400 (zone strong  6 years horizontal support, 61,8% FIB and 100 MA)

 

 

[Frenchie]

15 minutes ago, KDave said:

No one knows.

I am weighing on the side of a meaningful correction given that there have been no significant corrections since May 2019. The mining stocks are not pricing in this new high in gold indicating the market is factoring in a number of considerations but the main is that the move is not expected to be sustained. Seasonally gold falls into winter majority of the time. Short term I think we go lower for at least a couple of months. We will see. 

GDX index just stopped short of his  resistance (2016 highs)  and need to break 32...It lags a lot compared to 2016 when Gold prices were only around 1380 

You are right, the mining stocks market doesn't believe in the recent rise, a pull back and the prices passing 1600$ will get rid of those who doubt and then GDX will have a  potential to go to 40/42 in a straight line, so more than 30% for a potential rise.

[SilverDuck]

The graph above is H4 that is why you see the differences i guess. 

From past experience I am careful with drawing the TLs there are many ways in which people draw them (2 examples below). I highlighted the area I see as next major support if 1480-1490 is broken. 

[Frenchie]

16 minutes ago, SilverDuck said:

The graph above is H4 that is why you see the differences i guess. 

From past experience I am careful with drawing the TLs there are many ways in which people draw them (2 examples below). I highlighted the area I see as next major support if 1480-1490 is broken. 

I don't see the market stopping at 1480/1490 with such a rise we have seen since may ...

1440/1450 would be fine. There is a confluence of my 2nd ascending oblique support (lows from 07/01 and 08/01), your horizontal support zone in blue and the 38,2 FIB. However we could see lower prices by extension for a short time. We are in a bull market now (higher highs, higher lows) and these prices would be a nice buying opportunity 

[SilverDuck]

Praying you are right

 

Would love to get long at even better levels.

[Frenchie]

6 minutes ago, SilverDuck said:

Praying you are right

 

Would love to get long at even better levels.

I hope so too, but not too low in order to not break the trend  

[HawkHybrid]

32 minutes ago, Frenchie said:

You are right, the mining stocks market doesn't believe in the recent rise,

 

21 minutes ago, Frenchie said:

We are in a bull market now

 

we are not in a bull market until the majority

of the production of pm's says we are?

 

HH

[Frenchie]

8 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

 

we are not in a bull market until the majority

of the production of pm's says we are?

 

HH

The market make the price, and the price says it

[HawkHybrid]

who knows better?

 

1. a fluctuating price.

2. miners with the intention to stay in profit over

many years with capex projections and data

support. they are in the business of matching

demand with production of mines that might take

2-5 years to bring online.

 

are you calling the 1st half of 2016 a bull market?

 

 

HH

[Abyss]

Gold in US Dollar terms has been in a bull market since 1970 when it broke above $40 range. Last year Gold $1200 and I thought it would be range bound between $1000 and $1300 for at least the next 2 to 4 years and allow myself to adopt a strategy of accumulation at these prices. Interesting times ahead as for price prediction in US Dollars have not got a clue but recent run up in price has created lot of support between $1415 - 1450 and $1285 - 1315. I am waiting for a new base of support to form in the Gold price and that may take many months to establish (and while waiting any financial/political instability in the world has potential shoot price up another couple hundred dollars).

 

 

[RacerCool]

5 hours ago, Frenchie said:

I think there could be a retracement  to 1450 see 1380 $  from the present pull back (1515/1530$). This would be healthy and a really good entry point before the next rise way above the present highs by year's end.

If that happens, I'm sure I'll be spending more than I really should. 😲

[Frenchie]

36 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

who knows better?

 

1. a fluctuating price.

2. miners with the intention to stay in profit over

many years with capex projections and data

support. they are in the business of matching

demand with production of mines that might take

2-5 years to bring online.

 

 

 

 

HH

May be I don't understand correctly....  Price is made by the market sentiment only, and this sentiment can be justified fundamentally or irrational.

> are you calling the 1st half of 2016 a bull market?

It depends on your point of reference and time

- If you consider the highs from 2011, so 2016 was a corrective ascending wave in a MT bear market 

- If you take the recent breakout of the 6 years resistance at 1380 and the price exploding above 2016 highs, we are in a Medium term bull market that started from the lows of 2015

- If prices continues to climb and break the 2011 highs. We will be in a  bull market that started at the beginning of 2002, and the period from the highs of 2011 to the lows of 2015 will be only a descending corrective wave of a "very long term" bull market  

[HawkHybrid]

39 minutes ago, Frenchie said:

May be I don't understand correctly....  Price is made by the market sentiment only, and this sentiment can be justified fundamentally or irrational.

> are you calling the 1st half of 2016 a bull market?

It depends on your point of reference and time

- If you consider the highs from 2011, so 2016 was a corrective ascending wave in a MT bear market 

- If you take the recent breakout of the 6 years resistance at 1380 and the price exploding above 2016 highs, we are in a Medium term bull market that started from the lows of 2015

- If prices continues to climb and break the 2011 highs. We will be in a  bull market that started at the beginning of 2002, and the period from the highs of 2011 to the lows of 2015 will be only a descending corrective wave of a "very long term" bull market  

 

the first half of 2016 was an uptrend.

we have to wait and see if it turns out to be

a new bull market(or continuation of the old

bull market, depending on how you look at it).

you can't say we are in a new bull market

because we simply don't know yet.

assuming that we are in a new bull market

and then applying analysis that you would use

in bull market situations is asking for trouble.

'if' we are in a new bull market then the miners

are wrong. what if we are not in a new bull

market and the miners are right?

you are claiming that the miners are wrong

because you are assuming we are in a new bull

market. this has no backing what so ever. we

have yet to make higher highs($gold).

I would not gamble that the miners are all wrong

about mining. collectively miners are going to

know a thing or two about mining. what are the

chances that the whole mining industry is getting

it wrong about mining?

 

HH

[Martlet]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

who knows better?

 

1. a fluctuating price.

2. miners with the intention to stay in profit over

many years with capex projections and data

support. they are in the business of matching

demand with production of mines that might take

2-5 years to bring online.

 

are you calling the 1st half of 2016 a bull market?

 

 

HH

option 1, market knows better. The miners do not have special insight on demand, only input on supply side.  

[HawkHybrid]

49 minutes ago, Martlet said:

option 1, market knows better. The miners do not have special insight on demand, only input on supply side.  

 

so a price that can go up quickly and come back

down equally as quick(ie temperamental) is a

better gauge than planned pricing, data and

flow, forward looking for the next few years?

 

I guess the market knows exactly what it's doing

going from ~$1510 to $1530 and back again

within 5 hours today?

 

(miners hedge future production, they will know

now if there are no takers for these contracts)

 

HH

[Martlet]

23 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

so a price that can go up quickly and come back

down equally as quick(ie temperamental) is a

better gauge than planned pricing, data and

flow, forward looking for the next few years?

Does this forward looking plan know of and account for trade relations, interest rate changes, economic data, regulation changes, political shocks, etc? They can certainly take a good view and model where they think the market will go medium long term, but the market price for short term (week to months time frame) is the most accurate measure of all these factors.  Theres also the matter of how we define Bull/Bear markets, which seems more subjective and opinionated than it should be. 

[HawkHybrid]

1 minute ago, Martlet said:

Does this forward looking plan know of and account for trade relations, interest rate changes, economic data, regulation changes, political shocks, etc? They can certainly take a good view and model where they think the market will go medium long term, but the market price for short term (week to months time frame) is the most accurate measure of all these factors.  Theres also the matter of how we define Bull/Bear markets, which seems more subjective and opinionated than it should be. 

 

all that important news(theory) is irrelevant.

miners need to know one thing.

are people buying contracts for the next

production now?

(they don't care why people are buying as long as

they are buying)

miners don't need to predict the future pricing

they simply look at the contracts that they've

already sold(which forms part of the future trades).

 

are you suggesting that week to months of price

action can be used to predict price action in years

to come?

 

there's always variation in how people define a

bull market. the point I was trying to make was you

can't assume it's a bull market(despite glaring

problems such as miners) and then take the bull

market to be a fact, and then use that to prove that

the miners are wrong.

you can't assume that the miners are wrong and

then use your assumption as proof that they are

wrong. that's not how proving works.

 

HH

[Martlet]

5 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

all that important news(theory) is irrelevant.

miners need to know one thing.

are people buying contracts for the next

production now?

(they don't care why people are buying as long as

they are buying)

miners don't need to predict the future pricing

they simply look at the contracts that they've

already sold(which forms part of the future trades).

 

are you suggesting that week to months of price

action can be used to predict price action in years

to come?

 

That is what you are suggesting too, otherwise we would infer that there is no change in demand in the future.  Futures contract only reflect (some) future demand based on today's information, it cannot accurately predict the future.  Pretty simple to test, look back at forward futures prices and compare to spot prices, to see the divergence.