Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Zhorro]

27 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Sky News have just reported that UK regulators back merger of banking giants CS and UBS 

 

UBS is wanting a $6 billion backstop from the Swiss government for the merger to go ahead.  If the merger does go ahead, 10,000 jobs could be lost!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-seeks-government-backstop-it-rushes-finalize-credit-suisse-takeover-deal-soon-tonight

[Midasfrog]

8 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

UBS is wanting a $6 billion backstop from the Swiss government for the merger to go ahead.  If the merger does go ahead, 10,000 jobs could be lost!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-seeks-government-backstop-it-rushes-finalize-credit-suisse-takeover-deal-soon-tonight

Still not looking good for CS then 

[EdwardTeach]

19 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

If the Dollar falls, the Pound would go up against it, and so the Pound value of gold would fall - but the fall in the Dollar could push up the Dollar price of gold which might off set the Pound value fall - I think!

Thanks. So I did have it the wrong way round then. I wasn't too sure but I did wonder.

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by EdwardTeach

[EdwardTeach]

23 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

UBS is wanting a $6 billion backstop from the Swiss government for the merger to go ahead.  If the merger does go ahead, 10,000 jobs could be lost!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-seeks-government-backstop-it-rushes-finalize-credit-suisse-takeover-deal-soon-tonight

I wonder if UBS are using this opportunity as a get out of jail free card?

This is just a guess and I have no idea if this is true or not. But what if UBS are as bankrupt as Credit Swiss were and they know will collapse themselves soon too. So to save themselves they say they will buyout Credit Swiss but only on the condition that the Swiss central bank will bail them out if they collapse too.

[katyc]

23 hours ago, Maxx546 said:

I was into property for a good few years the last house I bought was for £48,000 cash  in 2000 ...That house is now worth aprox £150,000 now in today's prices..

If I had put £48,000 in 1 oz gold coins at aprox £180 an oz at the time 265 1 oz coins it would have made me aprox £424,000 today going at £1600 a oz ... 

No brainer as far as I'm concerned..that's why I sold up all my houses and put a big chunk into gold 

Just.... Wow! Thats very interesting.

I'm a huge fan of both property and PMs.

I am still resistant to non-tangible / touchable investments but do want to diverse a little at some point. Perhaps I will when the S&P plummets another 20% this year (according to Gareth Soloway). 

Edited March 19, 2023 by katyc

[dicker]

23 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Still not looking good for CS then 

So I think a deal will be done for UBS to buy CS.  Multiple reasons why, but the Swiss government will want to protect their franchise and not let it blow up and lose customers and business to the US and the rest of Europe.

UBS will need to get funds for this as CS probably has more problems than is currently understood.  

So the impact will be softer gold price I think in GBP

[Maxx546]

7 minutes ago, katyc said:

Just.... Wow! Thats very interesting.

I'm a huge fan of both property and PMs.

I am still resistant to non-tangible / touchable investments but do want to diverse a little at some point. Perhaps I will when the S&P plummets another 20% this year (according to Gareth Soloway). 

It does make you think...  l started looking at the gold market around 2010 and how much gold had gone up from 2000 to then..and changed my mind about property..

£180 an oz in 2000 to around £800 an oz in 2010 ..it really was a no brainer..

Best thing I ever done.. 

Gold will go up and down ...But if you plan on keeping it as a mid to long term investment you won't fail.. just think what it could be in another 10-20 years time 

[Midasfrog]

50 minutes ago, Maxx546 said:

It does make you think...  l started looking at the gold market around 2010 and how much gold had gone up from 2000 to then..and changed my mind about property..

£180 an oz in 2000 to around £800 an oz in 2010 ..it really was a no brainer..

Best thing I ever done.. 

Gold will go up and down ...But if you plan on keeping it as a mid to long term investment you won't fail.. just think what it could be in another 10-20 years time 

Here is the buy to let compared with buying gold 

[katyc]

2 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Here is the buy to let compared with buying gold 

Very interesting. Although with buy to let it generates a regular cashflow so I'll continue to do it. But PMs will always be my favourite. Way less hassle than tenants!

[dicker]

UBS’s bid is 0.26 per share, where as CS is trading at 2.0 ish.  An 87percent discount to the last traded price on Friday evening.

What does this tell us?

- UBS think CS are in a bigger mess than the market knows

- If a deal doesn’t go through ahead of market opening, trading could be pretty volatile….money to be make here trading but you need nuts the size of basket balls to trade CS over the next few days.

What will this do to Gold in GBP?  Open in 7.5 hours will give some direction I guess. 
 

My guess is gold hitting GBP1645

[katyc]

1 minute ago, dicker said:

UBS’s bid is 0.26 per share, where as CS is trading at 2.0 ish.  An 87percent discount to the last traded price on Friday evening.

What does this tell us?

- UBS think CS are in a bigger mess than the market knows

- If a deal doesn’t go through ahead of market opening, trading could be pretty volatile….money to be make here trading but you need nuts the size of basket balls to trade CS over the next few days.

What will this do to Gold in GBP?  Open in 7.5 hours will give some direction I guess. 
 

My guess is gold hitting GBP1645

I appreciate this info you give us @dicker. Keeping us ahead of what's going on.

Thank you 😊 

[dicker]

@ChrisSilver I hope my market commentary and thoughts through the lens of Gold in GBP is ok in this section of the forum?  Very keen to keep it on track - just shout if I’m distracting the thread.  Cheers

[jultorsk]

Appears the Swiss govt are now mulling over whole or partial nationalization of CS. 🤷‍♂️

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-19/switzerland-weighs-full-or-partial-credit-suisse-nationalization

 

 

[dicker]

Lots of speculation that CS won’t accept the 1BN offer from UBS and that the Swiss government may have to nationalise CS.  What that means is super unclear for bond holders and shareholders, but my guess is that bond holders may get rinsed.

UBS could be a big winner long term if it picks up the Wealth and Asset management parts of CS which are profitable and spins off the Investment Bank arm of CS (original the First Noston bit)

The only thing trading at the moment in BTC and it is up 2.5pct.

Going to be a great show to watch over the next week or so, especially if you hold gold.  

[dicker]

2 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Appears the Swiss govt are now mulling over whole or partial nationalization of CS. 🤷‍♂️

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-19/switzerland-weighs-full-or-partial-credit-suisse-nationalization

 

 

When it says the government will nationalise this means the Swiss tax payer.  They will be spitting feathers 🙂

So if this is done the market will be sniffing out the next weakest institution…

The US won’t nationalise / bail out smaller banks so it’s bail in time (rinse the bond holders)…

All good for Gold in GBP I suspect.  Hang onto your hats folks!

 

[dicker]

I forgot to mention that in the US the FDIC depositor insurance fund has 128BN.   Sounds a lot right?  

Not really…. commercial banks in the US hold 17.5TN.  So FDIC can’t cover them all, and then some.

The next weeks are all about confidence…

I am very happy To hold physical gold at the moment.  

Barring any new news I think Gold will open comfortably up in GBP

[katyc]

11 minutes ago, dicker said:

Hang onto your hats folks!

Credit Suisse:

Me:

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by katyc

[SlugForAButt]

I honestly don't see how the bail outs can work.

The underlying problem is the banks plough all the deposits into bonds/treasuries which are currently paying a shedload less interest than inflation.

Govt bonds/treasuries to fund spending are what has caused inflation in the first place, so more govt spending on bailing out banks is simply going to exacerbate the problem.

I honestly see this playing out with govts bailing out & individuals bailing in, leaving both parties skint and nothing left but to "reset" the financial sustem. 😉

 

Anyone else find it a bit strange that they chose to bail out SVB but not Signature? I'm sure a lot of the tech sector bigwigs holding huge amounts of money there had nothing to do with it?

[dicker]

If UBS buys CS for 10 percent of what it was worth on Friday, we are in the same territory as 2008 when JPM bought Bear for a similar percentage.  

I don’t think anyone can claim we are not in the middle of another sodding banking crisis.
 

Anyone else care to predict what will happen to Gold in GBP at open?

[MrStacker]

It doesn't look good and I certainly don't think even if UBS completed a take over of CS - it would ease things down. I feel the market will open and gold will shoot up to £1660 by monday afternoon. I think it's more serious then what has been revealed at present about CS's current situation.

[James32]

£1650+ by tomorrow night

[dicker]

BTC is significantly up - I tend to think that’s because people who have the best  information are trading ahead of the news being made public.

 

[GoldDiggerDave]

17 minutes ago, SlugForAButt said:

I honestly don't see how the bail outs can work.

The underlying problem is the banks plough all the deposits into bonds/treasuries which are currently paying a shedload less interest than inflation.

Govt bonds/treasuries to fund spending are what has caused inflation in the first place, so more govt spending on bailing out banks is simply going to exacerbate the problem.

I honestly see this playing out with govts bailing out & individuals bailing in, leaving both parties skint and nothing left but to "reset" the financial sustem. 😉

 

Anyone else find it a bit strange that they chose to bail out SVB but not Signature? I'm sure a lot of the tech sector bigwigs holding huge amounts of money there had nothing to do with it?

They don't they are inflationary and that the end goal, the volume and velocity of currency creation has to ramp up to make fiat worthless.  It's now the fastest race to the bottom.    There will be bail-outs and bail-ins, banks, pension funds, and the final stage will be UBI of absolute currency devaluation.   

You will own nothing and you most certainly won't be happy. 

[dicker]

1 minute ago, James32 said:

£1650+ by tomorrow night

If not before….I think we are:

 

[ZRPMs]

.

2 hours ago, Midasfrog said:

Here is the buy to let compared with buying gold 

Not taking in to account the amount of times the tenants have not paid, damaged the property, the ever increasing regulation burden, void periods, Your time, nerves and sanity. Over the 52 years you could drop another £50,000 if your lucky but the average experience would drop closer to £100,000. People for get to factor in their time when calculating return. 

I loved the summary but from 26 years experience I would say there are a lot more cons to the BTL enterprise. Especially now a days.