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Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only


Message added by ChrisSilver

This topic is to discuss price action in GBP, to discuss price action in $ USD, please see this topic: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19962-gold-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

 

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1 hour ago, Kman said:

I don't think it's anything to do with crypto

I've posted this before but my guess is that banks or other big financial institutions have a program running tracking 10 year inflation securities

When they go lower it triggers gold buys, when it goes higher it triggers sells

gold can get a little bit away due to speculation or for short term fear but this chart is just undeniable 

Yields have been rising lately (modestly in the big scheme of things) on senate seats and what that means for fiscal bills being passed

gold.thumb.jpg.98f09e8f611aebde9d9aad2cdbd2d4b7.jpg

 

 

 

I'm just repeating what the experts said when sales started in silver and gold and flowed into cryptos, bitcoin mainly as the media darlings always get the money...im thinking the same action with happen when crypto falls or stays and pms begin to rise, its not about returns but best returns...one reason I cross between g and s when ratio or performance are lopsided.

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Got sick of watching gold go up and up. So just ordered 20 sovs to add to the rest.   Thought I should mention it so you can all prepare for the huge dip coming. 

Looks like wonga was right all along

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5 hours ago, Kman said:

I don't think it's anything to do with crypto

I've posted this before but my guess is that banks or other big financial institutions have a program running tracking 10 year inflation securities

When they go lower it triggers gold buys, when it goes higher it triggers sells

gold can get a little bit away due to speculation or for short term fear but this chart is just undeniable 

Yields have been rising lately (modestly in the big scheme of things) on senate seats and what that means for fiscal bills being passed

gold.thumb.jpg.98f09e8f611aebde9d9aad2cdbd2d4b7.jpg

 

 

 

Very interesting thanks for posting that, now to find a way to forecast 10 year inflation securities 😀

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16 hours ago, OldNick said:

Very interesting thanks for posting that, now to find a way to forecast 10 year inflation securities 😀

They're roughly the same as normal treasury yields which historically only go down

This is 10 year inflation securities, 10 year yields and gold (orange) flipped vertical to see the correlation

If I had to guess I think they will rise modestly from here bringing gold down until at some point an event happens, whether that be an insolvency or liquidity crisis or both, which will again plummet yields and get gold going again

goldinflation.thumb.jpg.e457e844d23c94e525b27f94ed4a0467.jpg

 

 

Help thread for members new to silver/gold stacking/collecting

The Money Printing Myth the Fed can't and don't money print - Deflation ahead, not inflation 

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On 12/01/2021 at 16:22, dicker said:

Totally agree - the algo trading used by investment banks and hedge funds will have a few more parameters but you have summed it up very well.  

I worked in high frequency trading design & development in a past life and saw the HFT and Algo systems mated together to exactly this purpose using other instruments - and they did it very very quickly.

Cheers

Dicker

If you don't mind sharing, can you tell us what other indices were correlated in these programs? 

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Some people have been suggesting gold prices could drop by 50% over the next two years. This raises a problem for novices like me. With very limited funds do I wait for the bubble to burst, with the added risk that the currency will go boobies skyward first or just bite the bullet and buy when I have the available funds. After 1 more purchase I will have 90% of my savings in PM's.

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18 minutes ago, StevenK said:

Some people have been suggesting gold prices could drop by 50% over the next two years. This raises a problem for novices like me. With very limited funds do I wait for the bubble to burst, with the added risk that the currency will go boobies skyward first or just bite the bullet and buy when I have the available funds. After 1 more purchase I will have 90% of my savings in PM's.

I don't see how when a house 20 years ago and a house today are worth the same value in gold oz a suit on savol Road is the same price in gold as it was 50 years ago so unless literally everything else falls in fiat I don't see how gold can likewise silver the only thing that changes on a daily basis is the value of fiat 

Edited by Robda1986
Grammar
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21 minutes ago, StevenK said:

Some people have been suggesting gold prices could drop by 50% over the next two years. This raises a problem for novices like me. With very limited funds do I wait for the bubble to burst, with the added risk that the currency will go boobies skyward first or just bite the bullet and buy when I have the available funds. After 1 more purchase I will have 90% of my savings in PM's.

if you have ANY interest bearing debts (bar mortgage) pay it down, until you pay it off. snowball it by paying off the largest APR interests first  

get at least six months worth of wages set aside first for your rainy day/contingency fund.

The "free money/help" could end. Rely on yourself not bid daddy GovernMint to help you, also consider having a stockpile of emergency food for this next year, things may turn sketchy at a moments notice 

If you'll be 90% invested in PM with one more purchase it will only take like your boiler packing in, roof leaking or car fault to have you to be forced to cash in your gold to pay your bills.   

Precious metals can come to you with time

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19 minutes ago, StevenK said:

Some people have been suggesting gold prices could drop by 50% over the next two years.

To think gold will drop 50% you would have to be incredibly optimistic that the global economy is going to bounce back

I could see gold maybe coming down 10-15% in the short term as stimulus and vaccines hopes continue

But for all the problems under the surface in the economy and monetary system it seems far more like gold will be 50%+ higher in two years

 

 

Help thread for members new to silver/gold stacking/collecting

The Money Printing Myth the Fed can't and don't money print - Deflation ahead, not inflation 

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37 minutes ago, Kman said:

To think gold will drop 50% you would have to be incredibly optimistic that the global economy is going to bounce back

I could see gold maybe coming down 10-15% in the short term as stimulus and vaccines hopes continue

But for all the problems under the surface in the economy and monetary system it seems far more like gold will be 50%+ higher in two years

 

 

So,you think the economy will get 50% worse in two years then it is now?, what do you think will cause it to get worse, a failed all together vaccine?, even more unemployment?, the only thing I can see making things worse would be evictions and bankruptcies that have been stalled through the pandemic which would id think drive metals down as people sell off anything they own to survive.

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14 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

So,you think the economy will get 50% worse in two years then it is now?, what do you think will cause it to get worse, a failed all together vaccine?, even more unemployment?, the only thing I can see making things worse would be evictions and bankruptcies that have been stalled through the pandemic which would id think drive metals down as people sell off anything they own to survive.

The average Joe doesn't have any pm's to sell 

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2 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

Jewelry i think they call it.

You can go see them doing it on ebay right now or go check out your local pawn shop.

As times get worse those who wethered the first year will either come out and work on sell things they cared about but now it becomes money or life....I have found since the recession began that jewelry sales have been increasing a lot...im thinking higher jewelry will be getting sold and pawned from the former upper middle class as they're totally wiped out unless something serious happens in the employment and import and export which means global uptick which always takes years and not weeks...so figure 2023 or 4 at the earliest but it won't get dramatically worse unless left to by failed stimulus or banks turning their spigot down low..then it will be 1928 all over again.

Edited by DarkChameleon
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13 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

So,you think the economy will get 50% worse in two years then it is now?, what do you think will cause it to get worse, a failed all together vaccine?, even more unemployment?, the only thing I can see making things worse would be evictions and bankruptcies that have been stalled through the pandemic which would id think drive metals down as people sell off anything they own to survive.

I think banks and large money will further position into safety instead of lending or investing into the real economy

A next trigger could be covid vaccines failing yep or an insolvency crisis or liquidity, nothing has changed since March; the world is too connected, maybe the US might handle things great from here but if dominos start falling in Asia or Europe everywhere else will come down too

Maybe it will just be government taking their foot off the gas with stimulus and mortgage holidays and loan deferrals as you say, I'm struggling to see how they're ever going to stop doing it

Or maybe it will be problems in some global money markets I don't understand

 

 

Help thread for members new to silver/gold stacking/collecting

The Money Printing Myth the Fed can't and don't money print - Deflation ahead, not inflation 

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I wish I could remember where I saw it. Possibly Mike Maloney. What they said was there would be a serious dip (£800 per oz) in the the price of gold over a 2 year period and then over the next 20 years it would/could go as high as 5k per oz British. I'll keep looking to see if I can find the source and post it if I do.

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32 minutes ago, Kman said:

I think banks and large money will further position into safety instead of lending or investing into the real economy

A next trigger could be covid vaccines failing yep or an insolvency crisis or liquidity, nothing has changed since March; the world is too connected, maybe the US might handle things great from here but if dominos start falling in Asia or Europe everywhere else will come down too

Maybe it will just be government taking their foot off the gas with stimulus and mortgage holidays and loan deferrals as you say, I'm struggling to see how they're ever going to stop doing it

Or maybe it will be problems in some global money markets I don't understand

 

 

I think as the east benefitted at the beginning of covid I think they're going to play catch up when we come out the other end, west countries buying west goods and investors in the east going with the money which will be back west, nations buying their own goods and close allies next door as they fight to create or recreate jobs, im seeing government benefits to emply older workers to avoid a for ed early retirement and long term welfare and the bringing back of many products countries found had been exported unless some fool goes hitlers way of creating jobs as he disaster hyperinflation in pre war germany.

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(CNN)President-elect Joe Biden is expected to unveil a major Covid-19 relief package on Thursday and his advisers have recently told allies in Congress to expect a price tag in the ballpark of $2 trillion, according to two people briefed on the deliberations.

The Biden team is taking a "shoot for the moon" approach with the package, one lawmaker in close contact with them told CNN, though they added that the price tag could still change. The proposal will include sizable direct payments to American families, significant state and local funding -- including for coronavirus vaccine distribution and other emergency spending measures -- to help those struggling during the pandemic.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/13/politics/biden-covid-relief-package/

🤔

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-14 at 2.30.47 pm.png

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3 hours ago, jultorsk said:

The proposal will include sizable direct payments to American families, significant state and local funding -- including for coronavirus vaccine distribution and other emergency spending measures -- to help those struggling during the pandemic.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/13/politics/biden-covid-relief-package/

🤔

As I stated in the other thread, here comes the cash flowing directly to the people. If this is true then the speed up of velocity of currency could begin here, that's where inflation will be stoked if anywhere.

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5 hours ago, jultorsk said:

including for coronavirus vaccine distribution

"Take our free money, but you have to have a vaccine". 
If not join the job line & suffer. 
Its against human rights (in some way), but I can see this happening. ;)

From a stock point of view its punched below the $1850 resistance, which can cause all sorts of problems, especially in the paper price. 
I have been looking though all the charts and it always seems to do that (most years anyway) around now. Fabulous buying opportunity considering. 
I dont know who said you cant time a market, but its actually quite predictable when it comes to metals. ;)

Edited by Stacktastic
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8 hours ago, StevenK said:

I wish I could remember where I saw it. Possibly Mike Maloney. What they said was there would be a serious dip (£800 per oz) in the the price of gold over a 2 year period and then over the next 20 years it would/could go as high as 5k per oz British. I'll keep looking to see if I can find the source and post it if I do.

When Mike is quoted it is always best to address him by his formal name which Mike "I own a gold & silver Company" Maloney. 

( Lots of folk forget his middle name)  

His addresses & analysis despite being a very well read, knowledgeable and thoroughly likeable sort of chap, in his eyes it will always be a good time to buy gold 

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7 hours ago, Paul said:

in his eyes it will always be a good time to buy gold 

Its like the miners and investment folks on Kitco, they are salesmen at the end of the day & platforms run off that speculation/fear/greed. They are not going to say "oh its cyclical and it will go up and down in the same month/year". Its always the same old story - it will reach £300 and ounce and you will be rich, but what people don't realise s yeas it might, but you only have a month window to sell your physical as it will dump the week after that for the next 3 years. More silver than gold. Thats my view anyway.  ;)

These announcements at midnight tonight should see a turn around in the uptake of ETF gold and also physical I think. 

Edited by Stacktastic
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1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

Its like the miners and investment folks on Kitco, they are salesmen at the end of the day & platforms run off that speculation/fear/greed. They are not going to say "oh its cyclical and it will go up and down in the same month/year". Its always the same old story - it will reach £300 and ounce and you will be rich, but what people don't realise s yeas it might, but you only have a month window to sell your physical as it will dump the week after that for the next 3 years. More silver than gold. Thats my view anyway.  ;)

These announcements at midnight tonight should see a turn around in the uptake of ETF gold and also physical I think. 

Same rules as be frightened when people get greedy, when the mouths start saying to sell gold then you buy, when they say to buy then you sell, if your just growing and never selling then ignore it all and wait for a fall to buy more...dont get lost in a forest of imaginary trees.

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