Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Prophecy]

15 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Yes and italy and Hong Kong. Suspicious minds will call this coordinated media coverage but perhaps they are just reporting what is actually happening.  In Thailand for example without tourists locals will probably need the money 

Queues round the block to sell their gold at the height of it all.

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Prophecy

[GoldenPhil]

A friend in Thailand told me the gold shops ran out of money people sold so much

[TheApe]

Little impact from small holders selling a few coins.

Gold fell because market investors are jumping off gold and back into equities. Largely reacting to vaccine news.

Have you not seen the market soar?

[Prophecy]

1 hour ago, TheApe said:

Little impact from small holders selling a few coins.

Gold fell because market investors are jumping off gold and back into equities. Largely reacting to vaccine news.

Have you not seen the market soar?

You have to factor this in I'm afraid. There's a reason China and India are the largest markets for gold. There's a reason why total private gold ownership in the world is greater than the world's national gold reserves combined. Don't you think there's going to be an impact from India importing only a few million dollars worth of gold this spring when last year it was in the many billions? It's going the other way. Take Thailand and scale that stuff up by enough to cover the populations of Asia, Africa, Middle East and even South America, you know, the regions of the world that, when s hit hits the fan they sell, not buy like us privileged Westerners. When you add up over a BILLION people selling enough gold to cover their whole multigenerational family obligations for a year or more in lieu of any income from tourism, retail or manufacture, it has a MASSIVE impact. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Prophecy

[Prophecy]

To put this in perspective. When Gordon Brown sold 400 tons of gold the price of gold dropped by just under 15%. 400 tons affecting a negative 15% swing in market price. (No doubt amplified by the fact that it was Britain doing it)

India bought 100 tons for 'bullion' jewellery this time last year. So far this year... 50 kg! and that was up to April. It is no doubt selling more back into the market now.

Thailand exported 50 tons in April this year. April last year? 5 tons. Those are just two countries I have figures for.

Just a couple of coins.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Prophecy

[jultorsk]

5 hours ago, Prophecy said:

India bought 100 tons for 'bullion' jewellery this time last year. So far this year... 50 kg! and that was up to April. It is no doubt selling more back into the market now.

I think India restricted any form of gold and silver imports other than in monetary form. It was enforced last December. So one could wager any bullion jewellery imports would not show in official records. 

[GoldenPhil]

That is a very interesting decision.  What prompted it? 

[jultorsk]

16 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

That is a very interesting decision.  What prompted it? 

I'm afraid I have no clue. I just remember it was discussed back then and quick google only produced this https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/govt-imposes-restrictions-on-import-of-gold-silver/articleshow/72875015.cms?from=mdr

Silver restrictions have been recently eased https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/govt-eases-conditions-for-silver-import/articleshow/75724459.cms

I'm sure there's more to that story and maybe it's even "fake news", who knows. There was also the big debacle in India demonetising R500 and R1000 notes some years ago so maybe it's just another similar experiment.

[TheApe]

8 hours ago, Prophecy said:

You have to factor this in I'm afraid. There's a reason China and India are the largest markets for gold. There's a reason why total private gold ownership in the world is greater than the world's national gold reserves combined. Don't you think there's going to be an impact from India importing only a few million dollars worth of gold this spring when last year it was in the many billions? It's going the other way. Take Thailand and scale that stuff up by enough to cover the populations of Asia, Africa, Middle East and even South America, you know, the regions of the world that, when s hit hits the fan they sell, not buy like us privileged Westerners. When you add up over a BILLION people selling enough gold to cover their whole multigenerational family obligations for a year or more in lieu of any income from tourism, retail or manufacture, it has a MASSIVE impact. 

How does people going to local shop and selling Gold move price so much in 1 day.

Im not saying it wont have an impact long term but when you see moves like this throughout the day its paper gold.

[dicker]

Gold recovering - at GBP1408

Lots of comments in the media and the forum about day to day changes in price but I look to the long term trend against the background of currency debasement.

[goldmember44]

Indian jewellery sales are not going to dent this bull market of gold, seriously. There are other, more important bullish factors supporting gold on the global market. I can't see any significant fall in the gold price this year. Any dip is just a buying opportunity. £2,000+ before the end of the year. But I personally wish gold would be cheaper this year so I could buy more.

Edited May 28, 2020 by goldmember44

[Midasfrog]

The US has just imported a record amount of gold from Switzerland in one month 111.7 tons in April . What will happen when China and India decide its time to buy gold again ? I think when they do there will be another sudden increase in the price of gold possibly taking it close to £2000 an oz . This could happen very soon . Buying gold in very large amounts and holding for a period of time is a method of covering some of the cost of a Pandemic in that Country.

[Prophecy]

15 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

The US has just imported a record amount of gold from Switzerland in one month 111.7 tons in April . What will happen when China and India decide its time to buy gold again ? I think when they do there will be another sudden increase in the price of gold possibly taking it close to £2000 an oz . This could happen very soon . Buying gold in very large amounts and holding for a period of time is a method of covering some of the cost of a Pandemic in that Country.

And CHina hasn't bought ANY

[Midasfrog]

3 minutes ago, Prophecy said:

And CHina hasn't bought ANY

Yes in April China bought no gold from Switzerland , India bought 500kg and Hong Kong only 1kg 

[OriginalS]

3 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

Yes in April China bought no gold from Switzerland , India bought 500kg and Hong Kong only 1kg 

China doesn't need too import gold, it's the world's largest producer

[Prophecy]

Just now, OriginalS said:

China doesn't need too import gold, it's the world's largest producer

But they still do. They augment their mining activities with imports. Also, there is a case that most of their mining goes straight to national reserve and the imported gold augments private buying

[Prophecy]

1 hour ago, goldmember44 said:

Indian jewellery sales are not going to dent this bull market of gold, seriously. There are other, more important bullish factors supporting gold on the global market. I can't see any significant fall in the gold price this year. Any dip is just a buying opportunity. £2,000+ before the end of the year. But I personally wish gold would be cheaper this year so I could buy more.

It's all connected. I entertain all factors not just the obvious or conspiracy ones.

[Midasfrog]

8 minutes ago, OriginalS said:

China doesn't need too import gold, it's the world's largest producer

 

[Prophecy]

1 hour ago, goldmember44 said:

Indian jewellery sales are not going to dent this bull market of gold, seriously. There are other, more important bullish factors supporting gold on the global market. I can't see any significant fall in the gold price this year. Any dip is just a buying opportunity. £2,000+ before the end of the year. But I personally wish gold would be cheaper this year so I could buy more.

Define 'dent' I'm not saying it's going to tank it but it might add to the explanation why we are always so surprised that Gold doesn't always immediately rally like nuts when a world crisis happens. Like I said, not everyone rushes to buy they rush to sell and that will affect the market whether you like it or not. 400 tons of second hand gold ono the Sell side of trading WILL affect what you want the market to be. It's like Silver, why people think it will rally when 70% of its market doesn't' want it because they are shut down. That's bias denial.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Prophecy

[GoldenPhil]

Perceived crises coming and everybody buys gold.

Actual crises hits results in people having to sell gold irrespective of their wishes

[Prophecy]

7 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Perceived crises coming and everybody buys gold.

Actual crises hits results in people having to sell gold irrespective of their wishes

What about both?

[GoldenPhil]

The crises isnt the C word (which we cannot discuss on this thread) but rather mass unemployment 

[Martlet]

9 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Perceived crises coming and everybody buys gold.

Actual crises hits results in people having to sell gold irrespective of their wishes

Seems an interesting difference of behaviour between east and west.  We start from believe gold will help preserve wealth over long term or through troubled times.  Here we are mid-crisis, in the west we want to buy more for the future expecting prices to rise.  The east sell for the here and now, not giving a jot for the price trend, as gold has served its purpose. 

[GoldenPhil]

Can't help thinking they have it right

[Prophecy]

6 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Can't help thinking they have it right

They can't depend on their government for crisis welfare. They're all on their own essentially