Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Nick1368]

48 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

Is the price drop due to Putin’s miracle vaccine 💉 being declared today? 

It must be that, I don’t think it was a coincidence that the vaccine announcement was made by  Putin and shortly after that gold price went down £70  

[goluckystayhappy]

Perhaps the Russian vaccine works and they will sell it to other countries. No dollars though, payment in gold.😆

[Kman]

If markets were reacting very heavily to the Putin vaccine I would guess travel and cruise stocks would be up more

Would be silly to react off of it anyway, even if it was the perfect vaccine it would take a long time to produce and administer and you can't inject it into the economy to bring all the jobs back

[Martlet]

18 minutes ago, Kman said:

...Would be silly to react off of it anyway.

Welcome to the irrational behaviour of markets.

[Kookaburracollector]

10 Year yield has rocketed up 14% today 🤔

Edited August 11, 2020 by Kookaburracollector
Photo added

[Kman]

7 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

10 Year yield has rocketed up 14% today 🤔

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-year-treasury-yield-pops-back-above-060-as-traders-brace-for-key-bond-auction-2020-08-11

I think you might have nailed it there

Gold overlayed on the chart...

It says in the article "As part of the concession process, traders will temporarily push yields higher to make them more attractive at purchase ahead of the auction" I wonder if this is a temporary spike that will come back into PMs after?

I knew of the correlation of PMs and the dollar but I didn't know US bonds were so tight also 

 

 

[AuricGoldfinger]

On 04/08/2020 at 18:54, AuricGoldfinger said:

Got sick of watching gold go up and up. So just ordered 20 sovs to add to the rest.
 

Thought I should mention it so you can all prepare for the huge dip coming. 

 We’ll turns out I control the markets! Bow before my power! 

[BobnotTed]

5 minutes ago, Kman said:

It says in the article "As part of the concession process, traders will temporarily push yields higher to make them more attractive at purchase ahead of the auction" I wonder if this is a temporary spike that will come back into PMs after?

So once the auction is over today, are we predicting this is the bottom of this gold dip?

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, KRO said:

Hoping for a decent buying opportunity? here's another viewpoint, interesting

 

A (small) correction in gold and silver
August 11 (King World News) – Alasdair Macleod out of London, exclusively for KWN:  The intraday peak in gold was at $2,075 on Friday before profit-taking set in. It has continued this morning in European time, at the time of writing hitting a low of $1,984. The question arises as to whether this is the start of a larger correction. In judging this, we need to take a step back and reiterate some truths:

• The bullion banks (and Wonger😀)are horribly short and welcome any opportunity to encourage a reaction so they can close their positions. But, 
• Having missed the market, the hedge funds are not participating, and so there is no one to shake out by triggering stops. The thought that a new downtrend could encourage hedge funds to short the market is a long shot that ignores accelerating money printing.
• On any reaction, there are growing numbers of market participants looking for physical, and London has none available. Standing for a Comex contract delivery will be encouraged by any dip in the gold price.
• The banking system is bust, only very few people realise it yet. But increasingly, systemic risk will be an issue. Do you want money in the bank, or physical metal? It will be a no-brainer.

 

Conclusion: in the current monetary climate there are many of us who would pray for a decent setback to correct the error of not buying earlier. That is why it probably won’t happen.

I listened to his podcast but him saying banks bust in 2 weeks is just a case of ramping what an ex colleague told me.

[Kookaburracollector]

Watch the 10 year yield, (great chart above @Kman), lots of things are linked to the 10 year very closely... if it rises, it’s normally stock market positive. A lot to study late into the night for me this eveningt...I am currently 77% in cash, so have been waiting for this pullback like a lot of people on here...just don’t want to try and catch a falling knife, and buyback in too early.

I am curious as to how this type of plunge in metal prices affects the large dealers...must be a nightmare when margins are tight!

[DarkChameleon]

1 minute ago, Kookaburracollector said:

Watch the 10 year yield, (great chart above @Kman), lots of things are linked to the 10 year very closely... if it rises, it’s normally stock market positive. A lot to study late into the night for me this eveningt...I am currently 77% in cash, so have been waiting for this pullback like a lot of people on here...just don’t want to try and catch a falling knife, and buyback in too early.

I am curious as to how this type of plunge in metal prices affects the large dealers...must be a nightmare when margins are tight!

Those shorts must be delirious.

[Nick1368]

On the bright side we are back to last week’s price and I’m pretty sure this dip will be short lived so it’s best to take advantage of it.

i never thought that this rally in gold price is due to Covid but the messed up monetary system and huge amount of global debt and that problem has not got any better but worst after all the helicopter money over the last few months, so relax and take it easy .

[jultorsk]

https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/gold--everything-is-correlated-to-1-11082020

The global narrative is that the Fed will stay put through 2022 – leaving “free money” on the table. This is now supported by the incoming fiscal spending which will be north of $1.5 trillion when the deal is reached, taking the deficit to a magical 27% of GDP!
 
Over the last couple of days we have noticed how minute changes to real rates unearth the excessive leverage of the market. For example, gold tanked from $2060 to $1997 an ounce due to a 7-8 bps move against it in real rates. Yes, the positioning is extended, but so are the Fed and government responses, which are both guaranteed to increase in size.
 
So, if 7/8 bps creates this kind of havoc, imagine what would happen if we have an inflation boost, or if the Fed is insistent on not letting interest rates become negative. Failing to do so will increase real rates, which is the actual consequence of expanding debt – i.e. negative growth and inflation as debt increases.
 
Furthermore, as everything is correlated to 1, we are about to violate the very premise on which most of the positioning is done: falling real rates and expanding Federal reserve balance sheet. The Fed balance sheet is falling and real rates are rising, meaning that we are in total violation of the facts and the narrative, which temporarily to me at least is a massive warning sign and a time to consider buying some more puts to safeguard the gains.

 

[Zhorro]

11 hours ago, DarkChameleon said:

Those shorts must be delirious.

Well!  We were expecting a pullback, but maybe not this much.

So, what was in the news yesterday that had such an impact on gold and silver?  Not a lot actually! 

Bloomberg TV summed up the position as “Gold heads for biggest drop in seven years on rising U.S. yields”.

That’s the official position so you can stop reading now...

I said you should stop reading... why are you still reading?  Stop reading!  Or maybe you think there was more to it than is appearing in the news?

I think a lot of us were surprised how little resistance last week’s upward movements encountered – the scale and swiftness did seem unbelievable.  But yesterday’s sell-off was brutal – so what was the motivation (things don’t just happen there is usually some motivation driving people’s actions)?

Do we really think that everyone was withdrawing their money from gold and silver in order to chase that extra return from US bonds?  If this was the case, surely bond prices would have gone up and their associated return would have gone down!  So, this would seem to bring the official line into question.

Profit taking is another possibility for the sell-offs – but on such a scale and all at the same time?  A lot of trading these days is done automatically, and so radical price movements can cause the automatic shut down of trading positions (cascade effect) and thus amplify any price movements.  So, some of the sales may have been forced.

And, why would anyone want the prices of gold and silver to decrease?  The short-sellers must have been in real trouble as a result of last week’s price rises – and so whether there has been a concerted effort to help them out needs to be investigated. 

Yesterday’s downward price movements may come to be seen as a sign of desperation by some of the big players.

[Kookaburracollector]

Word on the street is that JP Morgan placed an Open Order (to sell at any price) on the COMEX yesterday, for half of their interest...and that’s why Silver bombed! (See Gregory Mannarino YouTube from yesterday https://youtu.be/0UhSjGgFTkk

Looking like a quick recovery this morning..so far!

[Martlet]

9 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

Word on the street is that JP Morgan placed an Open Order (to sell at any price) on the COMEX yesterday, for half of their interest...and that’s why Silver bombed! (See Gregory Mannarino YouTube from yesterday https://youtu.be/0UhSjGgFTkk

Looking like a quick recovery this morning..so far!

And took gold with it?  The sell off started in the morning European time, so this would be more likely reaction than cause. 

[cornishrich]

Anyone buying the dip in gold some cheaper 1oz coins available 

[Clockpuncher]

 

1 hour ago, cornishrich said:

Anyone buying the dip in gold some cheaper 1oz coins available 

 

I took the plunge on a couple of ounces last night. Fingers crossed 🤞

[DynamitesUK]

I am drip feeding too slowly but not heavily.. wont be kicking myself, if it shoots off from here but equally be very happy if it goes down a little further down  as still have some buying capacity left.

[KevjustKev]

1 hour ago, cornishrich said:

Anyone buying the dip in gold some cheaper 1oz coins available 

When buying doesn't it take a few days to go down and an hour to go up?

[vand]

Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.

[KDave]

It's been straight up since March. A single day correction is not really going to cut it in my view, we need consolidation to the downside with weak hands being tested and thrown out. I reckon we see the lows in December as in previous years (2016 especially). 

If it goes to plan I'll start buying in October onward wish me luck 

[KRO]

4 hours ago, cornishrich said:

Anyone buying the dip in gold some cheaper 1oz coins available 

yes bought some 1oz Brits late yesterday😀

[vand]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

It's been straight up since March. A single day correction is not really going to cut it in my view, we need consolidation to the downside with weak hands being tested and thrown out. I reckon we see the lows in December as in previous years (2016 especially). 

If it goes to plan I'll start buying in October onward wish me luck 

You're right, a single session does not a correction make.. however we also have no way to know even if we're at the short term top.. gold and silver could easily just be regroup here ready for a push even higher past $2100 gold adn $30 silver.  The way virtually every gold commentator is now saying "long overdue correction is here" kinda makes me think that there's at least a small chance that we might not be done yet.

[KRO]

5 hours ago, vand said:

Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.

I don't buy the correction argument or Putins Vaccine
to me there are not too many
weak holders sub $1900.

It took a lot of consolidation to get to the previous record at $1920
In my view yesterday was market manipulation by the Bullion Banks to clear some short positions
after ramping up the price to $2070 in thin trade
Consolidation , restoration of confidence, then retest the highs imo