Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Stu]

$1436, I'm calling this the start of the bull market. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Stu

[DarkChameleon]

30 minutes ago, Stu said:

$1436, I'm calling this the start of the bull market. 

At least were going to learn where the next stage of mark is...im thinking $1450 and we'll see the preasure to push it back down to $1400...if that doesn't hold you'll be talking $1500 plus within days.

[ilovesilverireallydo]

If we get 1450 then 1500 is easy to hit

[Cornishfarmer]

Before we get too excited, I know the figures aren’t quite up to date BUT price rise in 3 years 6%........... that’s 2% per year.     Better than in bank but not better than other investments I have

[vand]

This is quite an old article, but it it worth a read:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/relativity-trading

Based on historical precedence, you shouldn't consider the short term price "overstretched" until it reaches about 12-15% above its 200dma.

So given the current prices of 1455/1350 gold is only about 7% above its 200dma and could well have further to run. $1550 By end of summer? I wouldn't bet in a big way against that happening..

 

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by vand

[HawkHybrid]

9 hours ago, vand said:

This is quite an old article, but it it worth a read:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/relativity-trading

Based on historical precedence, you shouldn't consider the short term price "overstretched" until it reaches about 12-15% above its 200dma.

So given the current prices of 1455/1350 gold is only about 7% above its 200dma and could well have further to run. $1550 By end of summer? I wouldn't bet in a big way against that happening..

 

 

 

the charts are from 2002-2005(a known bull

market in gold). we don't even know if we have

a bull market in gold yet. also see how it traded

horizontal for 6 months from the peak made in

mid 2002? (the peak that looks like half the size

of the others). with hindsight all the peaks used

as reference are major trend peaks on an already

established bull market. there are lot of

assumptions made with hindsight.(if I had

hindsight, I would already know what is/was

going to happen)

 

I'm not saying  that gold is not historically cheap.

but the bias is just silly. (notice how if you sold at

the mid point(7% above 200dma) on a move up

and were wrong, and it then went on to make a

real peak at 12% above 200dma, you probably

could wait for a trough and get back in within

6 months about break even minus fees)

 

HH

[vand]

Just now, HawkHybrid said:

 

the charts are from 2002-2005(a known bull

market in gold). we don't even know if we have

a bull market in gold yet. also see how it traded

horizontal for 6 months from the peak made in

mid 2002? (the peak that looks like half the size

of the others). with hindsight all the peaks used

as reference are major trend peaks on an already

established bull market. there are lot of

assumptions made with hindsight.(if I had

hindsight, I would already know what is/was

going to happen)

 

I'm not saying  that gold is not historically cheap.

but the bias is just silly. (notice how if you sold at

the mid point(7% above 200dma) on a move up

and were wrong, and it then went on to make a

real peak at 12% above 200dma, you probably

could wait for a trough and get back in within

6 months about break even minus fees)

 

HH

 

We are in a bull market by most definitions:

Up 38% from late 2015 bottom 
Current price is above 200dma
200dma is beginning to trending up
Current price is at 6-year highs

It still early stages, obviously, but the price action is what it is. 

 

[HawkHybrid]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

 

We are in a bull market by most definitions:

Up 38% from late 2015 bottom 
Current price is above 200dma
200dma is beginning to trending up
Current price is at 6-year highs

It still early stages, obviously, but the price action is what it is. 

 

 

bull trend requires a higher high and a higher

low. let's assume we have our higher high.

we still need a higher low? ie either a

pullback or a horizontal with a slight dip.

 

you're assuming we are already in a bull

market, it's still early stages?

even if we are in a bull market the data

shows that taking some money off the

table on a move that rises 7% above the

200dma carries little risk as there should be a

reasonable chance of getting back in break

even(minus fees) if you're wrong.

 

HH

[vand]

17 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

bull trend requires a higher high and a higher

low. let's assume we have our higher high.

we still need a higher low? ie either a

pullback or a horizontal with a slight dip.

 

you're assuming we are already in a bull

market, it's still early stages?

even if we are in a bull market the data

shows that taking some money off the

table on a move that rises 7% above the

200dma carries little risk as there should be a

reasonable chance of getting back in break

even(minus fees) if you're wrong.

 

HH

The 2 significant higher lows are easy to see on the chart.. late 2017 and again in late 2018. 

If anything is missing from the bull case checklist it is that the there is no higher high in 2018 to take out the mid-2016 high, so the best case scenario was "basing" phase, but now we are well above that level and all the price action is indicating we in an advancing phase. Only a move back below $1170 would negate that.

If that is true and you want to short term, ahem trade around your core position you should at wait for rGold values of at least perhaps 12%... trading out at rGold 7% with only an even money-chance of buying back later for the same price doesn't strike me as a particularly good play..

Edited July 19, 2019 by vand

[vand]

More on the rGold measure, written pretty much at the peak of the last bull:

https://www.mining.com/gold-overbought/

You have to give it kudos and say it very rightly called for caution right at the time when everyone else was convinced the only way was higher...

This sort of measure isn't perfect, but it does provide a guideline of when you can say that gold is overstretched and can expect a short term correction.. I would say that rGold of 7% is pretty standard bullmarket operating mode, not redlining. 

 

[mr-dead]

Getting very close to the key $1500

[mr-dead]

well that didn't take long at all, $1500 passed

 

[Zhorro]

Just seen a headline on Bloomberg TV: "Goldman sees gold climbing to $1,600".  I wonder how much the analysts at Goldman Sachs are paid to come up this this sort of insight?

[Zhorro]

Yesterday an article appeared in which Wells Fargo thought gold was too "pricey" at... $1,425.  I wonder how much they pay their analysts to come up with this sort of insight?

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-08-06/Gold-Is-Too-Pricey-Look-At-Platinum-and-Silver-Wells-Fargo.html

[sixgun]

On 19/07/2019 at 13:09, vand said:

The 2 significant higher lows are easy to see on the chart.. late 2017 and again in late 2018. 

If anything is missing from the bull case checklist it is that the there is no higher high in 2018 to take out the mid-2016 high, so the best case scenario was "basing" phase, but now we are well above that level and all the price action is indicating we in an advancing phase. Only a move back below $1170 would negate that.

If that is true and you want to short term, ahem trade around your core position you should at wait for rGold values of at least perhaps 12%... trading out at rGold 7% with only an even money-chance of buying back later for the same price doesn't strike me as a particularly good play..

Gold is at all time highs across the world - but don't assume we're in a bull market.

[DarkChameleon]

On 25/06/2019 at 01:00, DarkChameleon said:

At least were going to learn where the next stage of mark is...im thinking $1450 and we'll see the preasure to push it back down to $1400...if that doesn't hold you'll be talking $1500 plus within days.

And there I was right again...lol.

[KDave]

2 hours ago, sixgun said:

Gold is at all time highs across the world - but don't assume we're in a bull market.

Gold is up some $200+ dollars since June yet DXY has hardly moved not even 1% down over the same time. 

Whatever factors are moving gold higher its not dollar weakness. At least not yet.

[sixgun]

58 minutes ago, KDave said:

Gold is up some $200+ dollars since June yet DXY has hardly moved not even 1% down over the same time. 

Whatever factors are moving gold higher its not dollar weakness. At least not yet.

There is higher sovereign demand and a completely different sentiment towards gold. 

[vand]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Gold is up some $200+ dollars since June yet DXY has hardly moved not even 1% down over the same time. 

Whatever factors are moving gold higher its not dollar weakness. At least not yet.

Its not just Gold.

Bonds have bounced.

Crude is down.

 

the markets are signalling very clearly to those listening that we are in for some choppy times.

Edited August 7, 2019 by vand

[KDave]

20 minutes ago, sixgun said:

There is higher sovereign demand and a completely different sentiment towards gold. 

Yes the usual suspects, Russia, China. I read that Poland has doubled its gold reserves in the last 12 months.

Gold price action does not seem to be negatively affecting the dollar. India, Thailand and New Zealand all cut interest rates yesterday, I am not sure that is in response to the FED or more to do with their own regional pressures but it will likely help prop up the dollar against intention to weaken. China has revealed increase of another 84 tonnes in gold reserves now as well, opening shots as part of the trade war perhaps but again yet to have any affect on the dollar. 

I think recent activity is related to Basel III changes back in April. Which is interesting, as now dollars and gold are on par, gold now worth 100% market value and a tier 1 asset; when the FED moves to the QE levers, reserves will flee to gold. The next leg up will be related to dollar weakness. 

12 minutes ago, vand said:

the markets are signalling very clearly to those listening that we are in for some choppy times.

Recession finally on its way? FED has stated it will use QE in the next recession - gold will do well. 

[sixgun]

i doubt Basel III is significant - this is coming from the beast itself so it is hardly going to commit suicide on its own medicine. The Fed will drop rates next month - this is the start of a process going to zero rates and more QE - then it goes negative. Powell said this is not the start of progressive of cuts (but he is lying). Gold fell on that  news and then quickly rose again when it was realised he was lying. 

What is sad is the UK at one point had large gold reserves. So much treasure wasted in the World Wars. Now the world is certainly moving to permutations of a gold standard the country is done for. i thought we were still generating electricity from coal, well at least in part. i learnt there is no electricity from coal. We are importing electricity from France. Waiting for the power outages when Sterling is worthless and the bills cannot be paid.

[KDave]

The beast didn't want the Yuan as a reserve currency either but there it is.

Hard times are coming and the will and desire to mine and burn coal will return when the times get rough don't you worry. We have hundreds of years of excellent quality coal in the ground, just need the right political environment (hard times) to wake up our real economy from its 30 year slumber. 

[CadmiumGreen]

And we are off to the races again?...

[5huggy]

8 minutes ago, CadmiumGreen said:

And we are off to the races again?...

I(m doing the same on the GBP thread too!!

[CadmiumGreen]

Looking good...