Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[GoldStandardPartyUK]

My view is silver has been in a wedge since August 2020, which closes August 2022. I have excluded the Feb 2021 spike because I feel the hype around #silverqueeze caused a spike that doesn't add information about timing.

In a wedge the upward forces are in conflict with whatever is pressing down, the fact it is a wedge not a box means we can predict the end of the current pattern, and gives us a channel to trade in. I'd suggest today's price is at the bottom of the current pattern and a good buying opportunity. The longer this wedge lasts the more risky, with greater chance of a breakout up or down. 

[oldschoolsilver]

Is this the best place to post technical analysis? 

What do you think of the idea of not drawing lines to what you believe are statistical outliers? The chart below shows a dubious support line connecting the low in Nov 2008 and the low in Jan 2016 ignoring the flash corona virus low in march 2020. I quite like this line as the price action has used it as support and resistance and few times, as well as break out and break up points. There is confluence with the EQ of the parallel trading range showing that the price could touch $20 before making the big decision as to if it will break down up or significantly. Personally I'd bet on a break up due to the crazy money printing, though I am biased with PM's.

The EQ of this parallel range has been definite resistance with the obvious break out point in July 2020, I'd love to see us come back down to test that point and hold it as resistance; which of course would be incredibly bullish.  

What are your thoughts TA heads of TSF?

 

 

  

[HerefordBullyun]

As the FED Says the printing will continue until morale improves!

[HawkHybrid]

9 minutes ago, oldschoolsilver said:

Is this the best place to post technical analysis? 

What do you think of the idea of not drawing lines to what you believe are statistical outliers? The chart below shows a dubious support line connecting the low in Nov 2008 and the low in Jan 2016 ignoring the flash corona virus low in march 2020. I quite like this line as the price action has used it as support and resistance and few times, as well as break out and break up points. There is confluence with the EQ of the parallel trading range showing that the price could touch $20 before making the big decision as to if it will break down up or significantly. Personally I'd bet on a break up due to the crazy money printing, though I am biased with PM's.

The EQ of this parallel range has been definite resistance with the obvious break out point in July 2020, I'd love to see us come back down to test that point and hold it as resistance; which of course would be incredibly bullish.  

What are your thoughts TA heads of TSF?

 

 

  

I don't think that trend line is of any significance.

Quote

and the low in Jan 2016 ignoring the flash corona virus low in march 2020.

cherry picking to ignore data points that don't fit your trend line is usually not a good idea.

 

HH

[oldschoolsilver]

38 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

I don't think that trend line is of any significance.

cherry picking to ignore data points that don't fit your trend line is usually not a good idea.

 

HH

It's a dubious line... I'm still keeping an eye on it though

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, oldschoolsilver said:

It's a dubious line... I'm still keeping an eye on it though

 

trend lines are only useful when the markets are clearly trending.

consider applying/learning elliott wave theory. it takes some time to learn but should be quite

good if you combine it with divergence analysis.

 

 

HH

[HerefordBullyun]

NFP figures were poor silver shot up nicely today - silver miners up nicely.

[Zhorro]

Silver is down 3% so far today.

[DarkChameleon]

4 hours ago, Zhorro said:

Silver is down 3% so far today.

Now for the premiums to drop, the suppliers still fixing the price of physical.

[Zhorro]

Now down over 4% on the day.

[Bigmarc]

Is there any info on why? 

[sixgun]

3 hours ago, Bigmarc said:

Is there any info on why? 

This was a major smash. Gold and silver went into backwardation right through to December. This will mean spot physical will have been picked up in volume on the cheap and this will be expensive for the controlling entities.
Smashes like this are officially driven / sanctioned.

There is the FOMC meeting next Wednesday - as if the Fed can change anything.

There has been talk about Fed tapering - which is nonsense. The Fed cannot stop hosing currency in. The Fed cannot raise rates or else the debt infested system blows up.

Some people think there is stress in the dollar system. This is my conclusion. When gold gets hit it is not b/c gold is weak - ironically it is b/c the dollar is weak and the US Treasury and its offshoots are panicking. If and when gold runs away the dollar is toast. Treasuries are in reality being bought by the Fed and entities of the Fed / Exchange Stabilization Fund in offshore jurisdictions. It gives the impression people want dollars when in reality they don't. The US is simply printing currency out of thin air and shuffling the paper around. 
Smashes like this cost in physical as it puts gold on offer. i wonder where the gold comes from, as if most of it hasn't already gone. The US Treasury will have no more gold and it will have stolen most, if not all of the gold it was holding for others. Why else did it take an age for Germany to get some of her gold back. Germany didn't get all of her gold back and i doubt she ever will now. Gold was stolen from the Ukraine, Libya, Iraq. It is a common story. The BoE won't give Venezuela her gold back - it will be gone. Afghanistan had gold with the US - it will have been lent out / sold years ago. This is why there have been no audits published. The vaults have been entered but no record is published on what happened. 

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by sixgun

[Coverte]

Good summary @sixgun , I don't get too worried by these small up/down/sideways moves anymore, this just makes the physical a little cheaper. 

There's only one way it will go at some point, meantime be patient and let the paper PM's do whatever they want.

[HerefordBullyun]

My belief is the dollar will stengthen to about $94 on the DXY and then Boom hammer time!

The rockets will take off and the PMs will shine through.

The fed can only kick the can down the road for so long....

[Minimalist]

31 minutes ago, sixgun said:

The Fed cannot raise rates or the debt infested system blows up.

I know they cant but how on earth are they going to deny the inflation this time round?

If they dont put up rates - we are going to witness hyperinflation.

[Coverte]

12 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

I know they cant but how on earth are they going to deny the inflation this time round?

 

Just take a look at the most recent report, CPI reported only 5.3% - utter nonsense.

The biggest joke is the house rental market coming in at (from memory) about 0.2% - total nonsense - look at this BS:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

And:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

Edited September 16, 2021 by Coverte
2nd Link

[kimchi]

10 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

If they dont put up rates - we are going to witness hyperinflation.

It's already here to an extent/on some levels.

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, Coverte said:

Good summary @sixgun , I don't get too worried by these small up/down/sideways moves anymore, this just makes the physical a little cheaper. 

There's only one way it will go at some point, meantime be patient and let the paper PM's do whatever they want.

The physical is held up by the man suppliers, their percentage premium just grows, even generic is $2 over for 100 oz bars...its actually people not selling which is keeping it from dropping through the floor, public selling and this would be a mass scalping.

[Minimalist]

2 hours ago, Coverte said:

 

Just take a look at the most recent report, CPI reported only 5.3% - utter nonsense.

The biggest joke is the house rental market coming in at (from memory) about 0.2% - total nonsense - look at this BS:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

And:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

Im one of the largest anti-cpi measurement people on this forum. I have looked through this data. They cant hide it. Rates have to go up or they will be forced into admitting it. Or they will have to do a false flag operation to focus all the attention away from the printing press.

Either way somethings going to happen. The reset is coming.

[Minimalist]

2 hours ago, kimchi said:

It's already here to an extent/on some levels.

Im fully aware. They cant hide it, thats the problem they are going to face. It has to force their hand to push interest rates up. Or something outragous is about to happen.

[goldmember44]

On 16/09/2021 at 19:22, sixgun said:

This was a major smash. Gold and silver went into backwardation right through to December. This will mean spot physical will have been picked up in volume on the cheap and this will be expensive for the controlling entities.
Smashes like this are officially driven / sanctioned.

There is the FOMC meeting next Wednesday - as if the Fed can change anything.

There has been talk about Fed tapering - which is nonsense. The Fed cannot stop hosing currency in. The Fed cannot raise rates or else the debt infested system blows up.

Some people think there is stress in the dollar system. This is my conclusion. When gold gets hit it is not b/c gold is weak - ironically it is b/c the dollar is weak and the US Treasury and its offshoots are panicking. If and when gold runs away the dollar is toast. Treasuries are in reality being bought by the Fed and entities of the Fed / Exchange Stabilization Fund in offshore jurisdictions. It gives the impression people want dollars when in reality they don't. The US is simply printing currency out of thin air and shuffling the paper around. 
Smashes like this cost in physical as it puts gold on offer. i wonder where the gold comes from, as if most of it hasn't already gone. The US Treasury will have no more gold and it will have stolen most, if not all of the gold it was holding for others. Why else did it take an age for Germany to get some of her gold back. Germany didn't get all of her gold back and i doubt she ever will now. Gold was stolen from the Ukraine, Libya, Iraq. It is a common story. The BoE won't give Venezuela her gold back - it will be gone. Afghanistan had gold with the US - it will have been lent out / sold years ago. This is why there have been no audits published. The vaults have been entered but no record is published on what happened. 

 

Exactly as I see it as well. They are aggressively targeting gold and silver now... because if gold and silver are cheap, it means the dollar is a-okay and valuable! Right? RIGHT???? *rolleyes*

In fact, it just screws small investors in precious metals, because it will cause higher premiums to buy, but peanuts to sell on. So we're stuck with precious metal but can't really sell it for nothing... 

I wonder for how long this charade will continue.

[Coverte]

Silver, historically seems to lag behind gold, but then moves up much faster.

Gold will not rise on debt, QE, or anything similar.

It has and will react/rise most strongly on falling market/consumer confidence as we saw last summer.

IMO public confidence will wane as furlough comes to an end; US consumer confidence is already falling at a record pace, despite vacancies almost as high as the unemployed.

I suspect the UK is heading in the same direction.

Good for PM prices.

[sixgun]

40 minutes ago, Coverte said:

Silver, historically seems to lag behind gold, but then moves up much faster.

Gold will not rise on debt, QE, or anything similar.

It has and will react/rise most strongly on falling market/consumer confidence as we saw last summer.

IMO public confidence will wane as furlough comes to an end; US consumer confidence is already falling at a record pace, despite vacancies almost as high as the unemployed.

I suspect the UK is heading in the same direction.

Good for PM prices.

Rick Rule said in a recent interview that a bull market in the metals initially makes progress in gold when there is fear - but in the second half when there is greed, then silver surges ahead. 

Edited September 19, 2021 by sixgun

[Coverte]

22 hours ago, sixgun said:

Rick Rule said in a recent interview that a bull market in the metals initially makes progress in gold when there is fear - but in the second half when there is greed, then silver surges ahead. 

Indeed - he also says we are already half way into a (Gold) bull market in one of a prolific number of interviews he now gives..........

[Kman]

This is from Friday but I can be bothered to do a new screenshot

This line breaking is bad, bearish

 

On the flip side the dollar is looking good with all its moving averages back in line, above its 200dma

The best the dollar has looked in the past 14 months or so

The dollar being in trouble is pure fantasy