Silver price about to plummet

[Wonger]

2 hours ago, vand said:

Just another crazy deflationist.

 

 

Vand, if you dont agree then your more than welcome to buy the silver & gold futures that this crazy deflationist is selling my friend! 😀 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Abyss said:

I have come to conclusion I cannot successfully use Elliott wave theory

 

54 minutes ago, Abyss said:

establish the majority of my physical stack when Gold $1200 and Silver $14

 

so far, it looks like you're doing just fine.

 

HH

[Au79]

The trader crystal ball indicates the direction of a PM rally from a low during mid nov 2019 to New Year 2020

[vand]

It might go up. It might go down.  blah blah blah blah blah

The need to start a new thread to comment on what might or might not happen is just a sign of insecurity.

Take your position, and good luck. If you make money good for you, you don't need to try to convince anyone else. We all have our own strategies.

Mine doesn't involve trying to second-guess the short term direction of the market.

 

 

[sixgun]

Everyone here is going to be bullish - or why else are they collecting precious metal? Masochism?

The issue is what will price do on its way to the Promised Land?

Our experience is there have been many false dawns. Those who have been around the block a few times have wised up to those who frothing at the mouth, claim precious metals are going to the Moon. These people are on the make or touched in the head - they panic novices into buying in a hurry. i personally know one chap who listened to one of the hardcore pumpers and ended up buying the best part of 3 kilos of gold.

Personally i see lift off in the next year or two - others are more reserved. In the meantime i see price moving in a range and i will keep buying when i see nice coins and value. i don't see metals crashing

[Abyss]

6 minutes ago, sixgun said:

 i don't see metals crashing

This what I love about PMs there is a floor to how low the price of PMs can go because of mining costs. No producer that can stay in business in the long term if the price they sell PMs are less then their manufacturing costs. What other investment can you point out which has by it nature and a price point that it cannot trade under for sustained time frame. Limited downside risks and over longer time frame potential increase purchasing power via PMs.

Unfortunately I don't know what the rock bottom price level is and if PMs will retest this level before heading off to the Promised Land.

[AgCoyote]

If it plummets, that's fine. I'll buy even more.

[silversky]

The price for metals can and has been below mining cost price in the past.  It can also remain well below mining cost for an extended period of time before recovering.  Silver is a classic example of that with the pumpers forever claiming that mine supply is limited due to mothballed mines etc. and that stored supply above ground is running out but then it just keeps going for what seems far far far longer than is possible if those previously established truths are true.  A lot of disinformation and mystery surrounding actual inventories and usage demand.  In the end though you are right.  Eventually the price has to rise when it all runs out and new investment is needed to get mines up and running again.  It's just a question of how much time you can bear waiting for this to happen.  I've been reading about and keeping an eye on silver for 9 years now and it's certainly an interesting subject.

[Wonger]

The more hedge funds buy futures, the more commercial banks are selling to them, the cost of production has no implication on the price of a commodity, if it takes silver to sell off to $4 for the hedge funds to close out long positions then $4 is where silver will go, the cost of production does not even come into the equation.

[sixgun]

2 minutes ago, Wonger said:

The more hedge funds buy futures, the more commercial banks are selling to them, the cost of production has no implication on the price of a commodity, if it takes silver to sell off to $4 for the hedge funds to close out long positions then $4 is where silver will go, the cost of production does not even come into the equation.

If silver got anywhere near $4, physical buying would explode like a million mega tonne bomb. How many 1000's of ounces would you buy? Could you stump up enough to buy 10k ounces? How about 20k ounces?

Gold would have to go way below $1000. A gold silver ratio of 100 would put it at $400. There would be defaults on steroids. The system would break, no it would shatter into countless pieces. You cannot ignore the real physical market - you can send paper to zero but these are legal contracts. They would have to buy people off and then we have the Chinese who would demand delivery or flesh nearest the heart.

[Wonger]

The Chinese are owned by the Rothschild, same as Russia, they do what they are told.

[Abyss]

29 minutes ago, silversky said:

It's just a question of how much time you can bear waiting for this to happen.  I've been reading about and keeping an eye on silver for 9 years now and it's certainly an interesting subject.

Everyone has their own opinions and considering nobody can predict the future have to respect everyone opinion. Sometimes I do think there will be another recession (seeing a global slowdown now) the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks will continue or expand QE to delay the inevitable crash that should have happened in 2008 which will enable PMs to be range bound for another 5-10 years until have we have a loss of confidence in the fiat system (need US debt clock hit 40 trillion mark) require a new monetary paradigm.

[Wonger]

Cashless society is key to their plan.

[silversky]

Something I would like to know the answer to is how much investment silver is still held as investment silver?  How big is this reserve compared to historical reserves held by individuals and institutions and what is the direction of the flows in the last 2 decades.  The large institutions could easily have liquidated their holdings into industrial demand directly and it would never have shown up again.  The retail holders may or may not have sold back to bullion dealers who then liquidated their coins to industrial usage but I'm doubtful that large amounts of coins are being melted down each year to make i-phones and solar panel parts.  Maybe, maybe not, who knows.  If it's the case that most coins and small bars essentially never get melted down, then this demand has acted like a giant sponge over time, absorbing previous supply and filling to a limit like a capacitor.  At some point this capacitor will resist further filling as retail decides it holds enough.  Surely this along with feelings of it all being pointless will lower retail demand freeing up supply to cover the steady industrial demand.  Silver is shrouded in secrecy so its all a bit of a guess.

[Coolsmp]

All these posts get way too technical trying to predict which way silver will go. Unless you're an insider trader you've got no chance! Some people get lucky and buy and sell at the right time. But where one person gets it right thousands of others don't

[Wonger]

The whole markets are shrouded in secrecy and fixed against logic on the surface at times, thats why 90% of traders lose money, they fail to realise that markets do not move on fundamentals, they move on market positioning and who is holding those positions, silver could rally higher if even more hedge funds take long positions, but it will just make the drop in price to clear them out even larger, the odds are against holding longs here for a good outcome, Jamie loves dropping silver $.50 in a heartbeat 😀  

[silversky]

A further point to add is that the European market for investment silver was essentially killed with the addition of VAT.  Larger players obviously still buy and sell using vehicles outside of Europe and so are not effected.  However, the smaller retail players were knocked out of the game with only a few avenues left for reduced VAT silver available on dealers profits etc.  This has generated a culture whereby silver has quite possibly been permanently severed from European minds as a source of investment/saving.  However, Europe is not the planet and in other nations and continents it is most certainly regarded as a savings and investment vehicle.  How long the UK is prepared to shut out this market will be interesting to see play out.  Given the seemingly low quality of the political figures arguing for dominance in the Brexit process, I don't hold much hope for any sensible open market approach to be developed any time soon.  That leaves the EU running a game where silver is a dirty little secret that is still possible to own if bought correctly and the UK seeing this market disappear altogether.  Overall, I don't think the European wide retail market has been sizeable for a long time so it probably plays only a tiny part in worldwide demand.

[Wonger]

When Brexit is officially delayed that will be a nice excuse for precious metals dump and when its officially cancelled look out below.

[999magnum]

I was wrong. England will be out of silver if it goes to $4.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Wonger said:

The more hedge funds buy futures, the more commercial banks are selling to them, the cost of production has no implication on the price of a commodity, if it takes silver to sell off to $4 for the hedge funds to close out long positions then $4 is where silver will go, the cost of production does not even come into the equation.

 

the futures paper market is an extension to the physical

market so it doesn't work like that.

or put another way, why stop at $4. why not go all the way

to $0. that's sure to trigger all of the stop losses for those

who have gone long?

 

HH

[Bullionaire]

As you can see by my highly complicated graph that I've drawn some meaningful lines on, silver went down a bit to 2016, did a loop-de-loop in early 2017, causing it to go back in time briefly. It then really took off using the momentum of its loop-de-loop and is currently off the graph somewhere heading for the moon.

 

[HawkHybrid]

4 minutes ago, Bullionaire said:

As you can see by my highly complicated graph that I've drawn some meaningful lines on, silver went down a bit to 2016, did a loop-de-loop in early 2017, causing it to go back in time briefly. It then really took off using the momentum of its loop-de-loop and is currently off the graph somewhere heading for the moon.

 

 

we want a time and a price

 

on a more serious note, I may or may not be right but at least

I've given a time and a price for my predictions. (so that people

can count exactly the times that I've been wrong). this I believe

is better than those who choose to constantly lead people

round and round the mulberry bush.

 

HH

[SiliconToad]

30 minutes ago, silversky said:

A further point to add is that the European market for investment silver was essentially killed with the addition of VAT.  Larger players obviously still buy and sell using vehicles outside of Europe and so are not effected.  However, the smaller retail players were knocked out of the game with only a few avenues left for reduced VAT silver available on dealers profits etc.  This has generated a culture whereby silver has quite possibly been permanently severed from European minds as a source of investment/saving.  However, Europe is not the planet and in other nations and continents it is most certainly regarded as a savings and investment vehicle.  How long the UK is prepared to shut out this market will be interesting to see play out.  Given the seemingly low quality of the political figures arguing for dominance in the Brexit process, I don't hold much hope for any sensible open market approach to be developed any time soon.  That leaves the EU running a game where silver is a dirty little secret that is still possible to own if bought correctly and the UK seeing this market disappear altogether.  Overall, I don't think the European wide retail market has been sizeable for a long time so it probably plays only a tiny part in worldwide demand.

Agree with above. Also, this is not only an EU problem - here in the US many states have residents pay sales tax on their silver purchases. It's not as high as VAT, but if you are someone who is looking for a vehicle to store wealth, not to generate it, this is a huge issue. If a person went to buy any other investment that promised inflation adjustment only with risk of loss and they wanted 6.25% of your principle (tax in MA, USA) + premiums upfront, most people wouldn't put their money there. 

 

 

[FoolzGold]

1 hour ago, Wonger said:

The Chinese are owned by the Rothschild, same as Russia, they do what they are told.

Do they control the tinfoil hat market too?

[Wonger]

Yes they are launching the futures contract soon as well on them 😀