Silver price about to plummet

[Ablist]

On 15/03/2020 at 17:19, Wonger said:

I prefer to let the market prices do the talking and the viewers can make up their own minds who has been correct and as the COT's reports below show there is major price drops to come yet, if your hedged you dont have to worry, if your net short even better! 😉

How are you even here if you bought at 3 last year? It’s just too much 🤣

[Ablist]

At any rate scoop up the deals all over the place while you can people. For those of us that have thought ahead. It’s deal city. Enjoy.

[happy2gether]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C23V1K4hFlA

[Michal]

Principalities on which i bought PM didn't change it's just house of (paper) cards is falling, when I ll have chance to buy more britannias at this price i will go for it. Unfortunately i don't think it will ever happened, well not this decade anyway.     

[g33x0r]

21 hours ago, Ablist said:

At any rate scoop up the deals all over the place while you can people. For those of us that have thought ahead. It’s deal city. Enjoy.

Where?!?!? Premiums are so high silver is almost as expensive as before the drop in price....  Where are you even finding any in stock??!!

[firestacker]

Silver price has fallen a lot but seller prices of physical silver seem to be staying at >£16 an ounce as if nothings changed.

What are peoples theory on this? is it dealers being reluctant to readjust their prices or is it just a delayed process until they all replenish their stock?

[HawkHybrid]

1 minute ago, firestacker said:

Silver price has fallen a lot but seller prices of physical silver seem to be staying at >£16 an ounce as if nothings changed.

What are peoples theory on this? is it dealers being reluctant to readjust their prices or is it just a delayed process until they all replenish their stock?

 

it's delayed, waiting on physical stock bought at the new lower

price.

 

HH

[Stu]

34 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

it's delayed, waiting on physical stock bought at the new lower

price.

 

HH

You say this with great certainty so I'll bite, what sources are you using for this?

[HawkHybrid]

7 minutes ago, Stu said:

You say this with great certainty so I'll bite, what sources are you using for this?

 

you can either wait or chase old stock at old prices.

 

HH

[Stu]

Ah, no sources then. 

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

 

notice the fluctuations in coin and bars, every time there is

increased demand the mints simply produce more coins.

even with a 50% increase from last year we would not hit

the 2015 high. if dealers are not ready to sell coins(it's

their livelihood) then maybe it's because they are waiting

for the coins to ship?

 

it happens every time, look it up.

 

HH

[Stu]

@LawrenceChard would you concur with mr @HawkHybrid? I know you have a slightly different position to European/states dealers however your insight would be appreciated. 

[LawrenceChard]

11 minutes ago, Stu said:

@LawrenceChard would you concur with mr @HawkHybrid? I know you have a slightly different position to European/states dealers however your insight would be appreciated. 

Sure, I will have a try.

Firstly, I don't actually understand his last posting. 

Of course Mints and refiners produce more coins and bars when demand increases, they would be stupid not to, and physical investors would rightly be complaining about the lack of supply. 

Most mints cannot increase their production sufficiently when demand spikes, although Perth Mint usually tries very hard. 

Remember that the U.S.A. is a major market, and their big brokers are geared up to buy up many tonnes of silver, and many thousands of ounces of gold during times like this. 

Late last week, one major U.S. broker was offering us bullion sovereigns at close to spot. When we went to buy some on Monday, they had completely sold out, and estimated it would take them months before they next had any surplus. 

One major European dealer was asking us 4% premium on secondary market bullion sovereigns. 

Our market intelligence indicates that most dealers have sold out of most if not all of their physical stock, have placed buy orders with mints, and are now waiting for delivery, which in view of everything, is likely to take longer than normal. 

So, it is not a matter that dealers are not ready to sell coins, they have already done it, where were you last week? 

Most dealers are happy to keep selling, but on the basis of a delayed and as yet unknown delivery time. 

Understandably, many customers are not at ease with this, and they are probably right to be wary of some of the newer, and smaller "players". 

We have been through this before, so it does not surprise us. While we try to advise customers to continue to buy the lowest premium (within reason) items, we fully understand that some will always opt to pay more for readily available stock. We try to serve these people also, without upping our premiums to rip-off levels. In fact, earlier in the week, faced with increased supplier premiums, we increased some of our selling premiums by up to 1.2%, which we feel to be fair and sensible. 

Although we received some inward deliveries this week, we still have about a tonne of silver, bought and paid for, of which we are patiently waiting for shipping and delivery.  

We also have quite a value of gold in a similar position. 

Our team is about 20 strong, and they have been working flat out all week, with at least one early morning start. One of our team is off ill, and we hope it is not COVID-19. 

Others will need to take time off for childcare soon. I have been working from home since Monday, although that's not entirely new. I guess things are similar at most of our fellow dealers. 

We have been doing some contingency planning, trying to anticipate all or most probable events. 

It is almost inevitable that one some stage, one or more of our team will get infected, then we might need to perform a complete lockdown. 

We may need to close our showroom to visitors, although we hope to retain a small on-site team to accept, check, and store incoming physical deliveries. 

Many of our staff can work from home, we have a number of notebook P.C.s which can handle this, so that they will not be working on their own computers. We already have one VPN in operation, another planned, multi-stage secure log-ins, Linux rather than windows on most of our computers. 

Today we had one of programmers working on faster syncing between some of our reporting systems. We had already implemented great improvements over the last few years, and I have been bitching most of the time that they are still not as good as when I used to run our dealing stock books, and cash positions in my head, plus pen and paper in the 1960's. This is slightly unfair criticism on my part, because many things were much simpler then, but it still remains my opinion that our electronic systems should be good enough to provide us with a similar amount of real time information. Ian has experienced it first hand during the past two days, so he is now converted to my way of thinking. 

Does this help?

 

 

 

[HawkHybrid]

19 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Although we received some inward deliveries this week, we still have about a tonne of silver, bought and paid for, of which we are patiently waiting for shipping and delivery.

 

5 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

it's delayed, waiting on physical stock bought at the new lower

price.

 

HH

[5huggy]

Supreme info and thank you , for the amount of thought and valuable time to provide TSF members with this awesome insight @LawrenceChard

Its no wonder I keep voting your business for "dealer of the year"

Your piece above was IMHO so insightful, obvious really 😉,  it will help a great deal of new to pm world ,forum members, understand SO MUCH MORE! 

[LawrenceChard]

34 minutes ago, 5huggy said:

Supreme info and thank you , for the amount of thought and valuable time to provide TSF members with this awesome insight @LawrenceChard

Its no wonder I keep voting your business for "dealer of the year"

Your piece above was IMHO so insightful, obvious really 😉,  it will help a great deal of new to pm world ,forum members, understand SO MUCH MORE! 

Thanks Shuggy, but BDotY has not been run since 2018.

I just looked what Bullion.Directory said at the time:

"UK winners in 2015, 2016 & 2017 – Chard have somehow pulled off their fourth victory in a row!

We’re seriously considering doing away with the UK vote and declaring Blackpool-based Chard a lifetime winner.

Four years is a truly impressive streak for a family business."

It seems they were good for their word.

We are happy to accept the accolade, just a pity we only made it to third place in the International section.

[AndyS]

11 hours ago, firestacker said:

Silver price has fallen a lot but seller prices of physical silver seem to be staying at >£16 an ounce as if nothings changed.

What are peoples theory on this? is it dealers being reluctant to readjust their prices or is it just a delayed process until they all replenish their stock?

Well currently Münze Österreich (Austrian Mint) has 1oz silver Philharmonics in stock at €16.08 and that includes 20% VAT (max order 100) ... this would make the ex. VAT price €13.40 and I guess the dealers buy lower than that ...

compare that to the preorder prices at GS (€16.49) and EM (€16.75)

Am I missing something?

(prices correct at time of writing)

[5huggy]

Welcome aboard TSF  - best place to be, for knowledge , advice and fun in the PM world @AndyS

new here I see -why not pop over here! and let everyone greet you!

https://thesilverforum.com/forum/10-welcome-new-members/

[Stu]

7 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

Sure, I will have a try.

Firstly, I don't actually understand his last posting. 

Of course Mints and refiners produce more coins and bars when demand increases, they would be stupid not to, and physical investors would rightly be complaining about the lack of supply. 

Most mints cannot increase their production sufficiently when demand spikes, although Perth Mint usually tries very hard. 

Remember that the U.S.A. is a major market, and their big brokers are geared up to buy up many tonnes of silver, and many thousands of ounces of gold during times like this. 

Late last week, one major U.S. broker was offering us bullion sovereigns at close to spot. When we went to buy some on Monday, they had completely sold out, and estimated it would take them months before they next had any surplus. 

One major European dealer was asking us 4% premium on secondary market bullion sovereigns. 

Our market intelligence indicates that most dealers have sold out of most if not all of their physical stock, have placed buy orders with mints, and are now waiting for delivery, which in view of everything, is likely to take longer than normal. 

So, it is not a matter that dealers are not ready to sell coins, they have already done it, where were you last week? 

Most dealers are happy to keep selling, but on the basis of a delayed and as yet unknown delivery time. 

Understandably, many customers are not at ease with this, and they are probably right to be wary of some of the newer, and smaller "players". 

We have been through this before, so it does not surprise us. While we try to advise customers to continue to buy the lowest premium (within reason) items, we fully understand that some will always opt to pay more for readily available stock. We try to serve these people also, without upping our premiums to rip-off levels. In fact, earlier in the week, faced with increased supplier premiums, we increased some of our selling premiums by up to 1.2%, which we feel to be fair and sensible. 

Although we received some inward deliveries this week, we still have about a tonne of silver, bought and paid for, of which we are patiently waiting for shipping and delivery.  

We also have quite a value of gold in a similar position. 

Our team is about 20 strong, and they have been working flat out all week, with at least one early morning start. One of our team is off ill, and we hope it is not COVID-19. 

Others will need to take time off for childcare soon. I have been working from home since Monday, although that's not entirely new. I guess things are similar at most of our fellow dealers. 

We have been doing some contingency planning, trying to anticipate all or most probable events. 

It is almost inevitable that one some stage, one or more of our team will get infected, then we might need to perform a complete lockdown. 

We may need to close our showroom to visitors, although we hope to retain a small on-site team to accept, check, and store incoming physical deliveries. 

Many of our staff can work from home, we have a number of notebook P.C.s which can handle this, so that they will not be working on their own computers. We already have one VPN in operation, another planned, multi-stage secure log-ins, Linux rather than windows on most of our computers. 

Today we had one of programmers working on faster syncing between some of our reporting systems. We had already implemented great improvements over the last few years, and I have been bitching most of the time that they are still not as good as when I used to run our dealing stock books, and cash positions in my head, plus pen and paper in the 1960's. This is slightly unfair criticism on my part, because many things were much simpler then, but it still remains my opinion that our electronic systems should be good enough to provide us with a similar amount of real time information. Ian has experienced it first hand during the past two days, so he is now converted to my way of thinking. 

Does this help?

 

 

 

Many thanks for your comprehensive answer. As said previously, it is great to have someone within the industry with decades of experience providing their veiw. 

[LawrenceChard]

On 25/02/2019 at 09:10, Wonger said:

 On the 12/06/2018 the silver price closed at $17.03, the commercials were net short 67000 futures contracts, the result was a drop of $3.13 to $13.90 on the 14/11/2018, the most recent COT report is 25/02/2019 ( its still 2 weeks behind due to the government shut down) the commercials are now 78000 net short futures contracts, this points to a drop to the low $13.00 range, Ive now hedged my physical silver by going short, while hedged I receive 2% interest because Im buying US Dollars which have a yield and selling silver which does not, I would recommend this to anyone who is holding physical silver, its the sensible thing to do.  

This is a late entry because my attention was only drawn to recent posts on it in the last week or so. 

I thought I ought to look back at the original post. 

Wonger did not state the spot silver price at the time, which would always be helpful, and I have not checked it (+-$15?), but the title "Silver price about to plummet", appears not to have been anywhere near accurate. Looking back, I did see a "low" of $14.30 in May 2019, before silver climbed to $19.64 in August 2019. 

If we are ever stupid (brave?) enough to think about shorting silver, I hope I would look back at this, and be glad we didn't short it in February 2019. Sure, we might have been about $1 per ounce up at one stage, before going about $4.50 down. 

If he had made his forecast a year later, at about $18.95, I would have been very impressed, especially having seen a recent low of $11.67; perhaps he did, I have not read all 39 pages of the thread. 

Maybe it was a great forecast, just a year too early. 

Gold:Silver ratio was about 84 at the time of his post, after which 93 in July, 80 in late September 2019. 

I have not calculated a 10 year G:S ratio recently, but my guess is about 55, so none of the above ranges would tempt me to short silver, rather the opposite! 

When it hit 90 in January, I recall thinking “wow, silver is cheap!”, and when it hit 100 in March, it took me back to the post-Bunker Hunt days. 

Predicting G:S at around 120 would have sounded like lunacy just a month ago, but would have looked like genius now. 

We have bought about a tonne of silver in the last month, and may have sold even more; it’s looking like another top-up tomorrow, probably at least half a tonne, we want to be longer, not shorter at present. 

Normally, I would not expect to see a huge “correction” in silver, as it is an industrial metal, and the world economy has been, and continues to be flattened. However, G:S 120 is such a freaky level, that a rebound is a distinct possibility, perhaps to about 100; after that it could be years rather than months before we see GS (TSF keep converting G (colon) S to G😖!) down around 50 again. 

Some think that Gold Silver Ratio is meaningless, but I think it’s a far better guide than “technical analysis”. 

I don’t know if Wonger is American, but being British, I prefer to think about precious metal prices in sterling, because that’s what matters to 90%+ of our customers, but whichever currency you use to measure precious metal prices, ratios like Gold Silver remain a purer and more international measure and guideline. 

BTW, on that measure, or any other, platinum looks very cheap. Anybody got any secondary market platinum coins they want to sell us? 

 

[sixgun]

To be fair on Mr Wong he said short silver and not long after said he had gone long.
He reappeared recently and said short silver and was right - and now he is long.

i have taken the piss out of Mr Wong but i respect the guy b/c he has a good sense of humour and takes it all in good humour - that counts for a lot in my book.

 

[Wonger]

41 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

This is a late entry because my attention was only drawn to recent posts on it in the last week or so. 

I thought I ought to look back at the original post. 

Wonger did not state the spot silver price at the time, which would always be helpful, and I have not checked it (+-$15?), but the title "Silver price about to plummet", appears not to have been anywhere near accurate. Looking back, I did see a "low" of $14.30 in May 2019, before silver climbed to $19.64 in August 2019. 

If we are ever stupid (brave?) enough to think about shorting silver, I hope I would look back at this, and be glad we didn't short it in February 2019. Sure, we might have been about $1 per ounce up at one stage, before going about $4.50 down. 

If he had made his forecast a year later, at about $18.95, I would have been very impressed, especially having seen a recent low of $11.67; perhaps he did, I have not read all 39 pages of the thread. 

Maybe it was a great forecast, just a year too early. 

Gold:Silver ratio was about 84 at the time of his post, after which 93 in July, 80 in late September 2019. 

I have not calculated a 10 year G:S ratio recently, but my guess is about 55, so none of the above ranges would tempt me to short silver, rather the opposite! 

When it hit 90 in January, I recall thinking “wow, silver is cheap!”, and when it hit 100 in March, it took me back to the post-Bunker Hunt days. 

Predicting G:S at around 120 would have sounded like lunacy just a month ago, but would have looked like genius now. 

We have bought about a tonne of silver in the last month, and may have sold even more; it’s looking like another top-up tomorrow, probably at least half a tonne, we want to be longer, not shorter at present. 

Normally, I would not expect to see a huge “correction” in silver, as it is an industrial metal, and the world economy has been, and continues to be flattened. However, G:S 120 is such a freaky level, that a rebound is a distinct possibility, perhaps to about 100; after that it could be years rather than months before we see GS (TSF keep converting G (colon) S to G😖!) down around 50 again. 

Some think that Gold Silver Ratio is meaningless, but I think it’s a far better guide than “technical analysis”. 

I don’t know if Wonger is American, but being British, I prefer to think about precious metal prices in sterling, because that’s what matters to 90%+ of our customers, but whichever currency you use to measure precious metal prices, ratios like Gold Silver remain a purer and more international measure and guideline. 

BTW, on that measure, or any other, platinum looks very cheap. Anybody got any secondary market platinum coins they want to sell us? 

 

Lawerence, its quite easy for you to check the price of silver on the date the thread was started my friend! 😉 

[LawrenceChard]

30 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Lawerence, its quite easy for you to check the price of silver on the date the thread was started my friend! 😉 

Yes, you are probably correct, so what was it?

[MancunianStacker]

I’ll help you both out:

Silver price about to plummet

By Wonger,  February 25, 2019 in Silver 

[Wonger]

1 minute ago, MancunianStacker said:

I’ll help you both out:

Silver price about to plummet

By Wonger,  February 25, 2019 in Silver 

🤣