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Found 9 results

  1. If not by years end then BEST GUESS by what year?
  2. Bimetallic

    Is GSR useful?

    Hi all – People talk about the gold to silver ratio like it's important. As far as I know, it doesn't have any predictive utility in valuing either metal. Am I mistaken? Where are some models that show good predictive utility? Thanks. p.s. If you want to share any other models that you think are helpful to stackers, that would be cool too.
  3. To Silver experts on forum, Can anyone explain me why the silver price is so low while most sellers don't have anything to sell? I try to make my purchases at goldsilver.be but they ran pretty much out of silver. Some things are not adding up here. Can anyone clarify this situation? Cheers, Reinhart
  4. Hi all – I'm seeing people rationalize paying exorbitant premiums with kooky theories. There's no reason to light your money on fire by paying the current premiums for retail physical silver. If you pay $27.00 for a new American Silver Eagle, for example, that's an 80% premium over spot at the moment. You'll need the spot price to climb out of the deep hole you dug in order to ever break even on such a purchase, and it might never climb enough. In this scenario, you'd need spot to climb to $24 - $25 to sell that silver to a private party for $27, and probably $26 - $27 to sell it to a dealer at the price you paid. In the meantime, you're going to watch those premiums shrink and shrink, such that new ASEs will cost something like $22 even though spot is higher than it was when you paid $27 for ASE (normally, for an ASE price of $22 at the better dealers, like SD Bullion or Silver.com, spot will be around $18.50 or $19). The explosion in demand because of the virus caused retail physical silver premiums to explode in turn. I see people saying that the spot price and physical have "decoupled", as though this is some sort of permanent situation. That's nonsense. It's important to not be gullible when people are trying to sell you something. It would be smarter to wait for premiums to return to normal as demand normalizes. There's nothing permanent about these premiums, though they might be larger than normal for a few months given the fact that supply is going to be constrained due to mint shutdowns (e.g. the RCM is shut down for two weeks). The founder and CEO of JM Bullion was on the Silverbugs subreddit the other day explaining that they're always fully hedged re: silver spot price fluctuations, and that an explosion in demand is why premiums are out of whack (it's not due to them having to sell inventory that they paid much higher spot prices for – they're hedged). There are people in the silver stacking community who are always rationalizing paying a hefty premium, or really any price at all, based on kooky theories like that silver is going to explode any day now, and now this "decoupling" business. There's always a rationalization for everything that happens. When silver spot falls – or is stagnant – it's because of manipulation or some other conspiracy. The truth is usually simpler, and more mundane. In any case, it's not a good time to waste your money, on overpriced bullion or anything else – you might need it... If you think you need physical silver in-hand, that's one thing, but if you're buying silver as an investment or hedge, I would wait until premiums are normal so you don't dig yourself a huge hole. If you think silver is going to keep climbing, as it has for the last couple of days, you won't make any money off it by buying retail physical right now, because of the temporary premiums (unless silver punches well past its normal levels, to over $26 or so). I would just buy ETFs – they're pure profit as silver climbs, much more profitable than retail physical. If silver climbs to $20, for example, you've made no money if you bought retail physical right now, since you're paying so much that it was like spot was already $20 or more. Whereas you'd make a lot of profit on that rise if you were in an ETF, or even vaulted physical like BullionVault or Perth Mint. For example, BullionVault charges 0.48% per year to store silver, and 0.50% commission on transactions. Compare that to the 80% premium on ASE at APMEX... If you want to buy physical at some point, I recommend low priced dealers like Silver.com and SD Bullion (in North America, at least). For example, at APMEX preorders on 2020 ASE were $26.84 a minute ago, whereas at Silver.com in-stock 2019 ASE were $23.17. Much smaller hole at Silver.com. A 2020 ASE is only worth a few cents more than a 2019, not $3.67 more... But it's smart to wait. You can see what typical premiums were before the panic in my comprehensive spreadsheet. The figures are mostly from a month ago. I recorded spot in every case. Relative premiums are fairly stable across dealers – i.e. Silver.com and SD Bullion are usually the cheapest, no matter the day.
  5. Hi all – I'm seeing significantly different silver spot prices from different sources and dealers. Here's what I found when I took a snapshot at 12:11 GMT/UTC today, March 26, 2020. All prices were with seven seconds of each other, and none of them changed significantly in the ensuing 30 seconds. These are all Ask prices as far as I can tell, which is the most relevant price: SilverPrice.org: $14.42 JM Bullion: $14.74 GoldPrice.com: $14.70 APMEX: $14.84 Kitco Spot: $14.54 These differences are too large. I assume they're all supposed to be COMEX prices. Something is out of whack here. What's particularly disturbing is how much higher the dealer-quoted spot price is compared to the non-dealer sources. The difference between APMEX's quoted silver spot and SilverPrice.org is 42 cents! And JM Bullion is 32 cents over. Differences that large don't make any sense, even if the quotes are a full minute or two delayed compared to SilverPrice.org or Kitco's quote. Hell, even if they're ten minutes off, it wouldn't explain a 32 - 42 cent disparity – spot didn't move nearly that much in the ten minutes prior. The reason the dealer-quoted spot is troubling is that in both cases they're much higher than the true spot price. This would make their product prices look better than they are, because the premium over spot will look smaller than it actually is... That's a problem. Do you think it's a coincidence that the dealer-quoted spot prices are higher than the correct value? Or intentional? This ties into my other post about where people are getting the silver spot price. No one seemed to know what the ultimate source was (e.g. COMEX or some other exchange). The disparities are annoying, as is the fact that it's hard to tell exactly where these different sources are getting their silver price.
  6. Hi all – I've noticed discrepancies in the silver price reported by various online PM dealers. This made me wonder where exactly they get their prices – which exchanges and so forth. Which in turn made me wonder where you all get "the" price of silver. Ultimately I'd like to sort out all silver exchanges worldwide and figure out where dealers are getting their prices. In the US, when we refer to the silver price I think we're referring to COMEX silver futures. I wonder if silver stackers in other English-speaking countries are also leaning on the COMEX price, or if you have a different source, a different exchange perhaps.So, where do people from the following countries get "the" price of silver?Australians?Brits?Canadians?New Zealanders?Thanks.
  7. paolo

    Silver price survey

    Hi all, I think is interesting to know what you people of the forum think about the future silver price, therefore i was thinking out of curiosity to make a small survey: Where do you think will be the silver price in USD one year from now? I personally thinking above 18 and below 20, given no major economic wild card. Thank to everyone willing to answer.
  8. Hi all -- I finished my research on North American online dealers. The article is here. My spreadsheet with all the prices is linked an article. In the article, I also discuss what you can do to reduce your net price if you absolutely have to use a credit card. And I discuss the carrier programs that allow you to take more control over your shipments from dealers and reduce the chance of theft. Enjoy, and let me know if I should add any dealers.
  9. Hi all -- I received a very interesting email from Provident Metals today (they're a major American dealer). It has significant implications, and instead of trying to summarize it I'm just going to share the whole thing: ----------- The bullion marketplace has two sides – and sometimes they can act very differently from each other. What do we mean by that? There are two ways to trade precious metals: physical product and paper metal. The former category is what Provident does: buying and selling bullion in the form of coins, bars, ingots, rounds, etc. When we enter into a transaction, actual metal is bought, sold, and physically transferred. In the paper market, however, bullion is traded in the form of futures contracts, ETFs, derivatives, and other promises. In theory, both the physical and paper markets involve buying and selling metal. However, there’s one major difference. In the paper world, it’s easy to lose sight of how much physical metal actually exists. Traders can (and often do) buy or sell more metal than is readily available in the physical marketplace. Exchanges like the CME publish how much metal exists in approved warehouses versus the number of open futures contracts. More often than not, traders have agreed to buy or sell MUCH more metal than is available in the physical market Why are we mentioning this today? In recent months, the supply of newly-minted physical silver has steadily declined. In fact, it appears that demand is far outpacing the amount of coins and bars available. Granted there are numerous factors in play, but there’s one major reason for this supply shock. Two of North America’s largest precious metals refiners have shuttered – and no one has filled the void. Over the past two years, Dallas-based Elemetal and Miami-based Republic Metals have both ceased operations. Private mints like Elemetal and Republic played a vital role in the bullion marketplace. While there are numerous world mints that can belt out coins, only a select few facilities are available to make low-premium bars and rounds. It’s no surprise that just a handful of companies are available to serve this role. The silver bullion market is intensely competitive with exceptionally tight margins; it requires a tremendous amount of capital, patience, and infrastructure. Consider what goes into making just one silver round. A private mint must buy raw metal, refine it to 99.9% purity, form it into thin sheets, stamp out blanks, mint the blanks, package the rounds into tubes, and then ship them to distributors. This process requires maintaining a large staff and buying extremely expensive machinery. Furthermore, it’s a cash-intensive process; all of this metal must be carried and financed while it’s being fabricated into product. All of this effort is worthwhile when the market is upbeat and healthy. During periods of strong demand, private mints enjoy an excellent flow of orders. Even though the margins are thin, they benefit from strong volume and non-stop activity. However, when conditions are quiet, mints are stuck with massive overheads and fixed costs. It’s truly a “feast or famine” existence for private mints – and this might be why so few exist in the United States. While it’s unclear exactly what led to the downfall of Republic Metals, they were one of the few refineries willing to produce low-premium silver rounds and bars. Following their departure, it’s become increasing difficult to source this product. Low-premium silver has become extremely scarce in the marketplace. While Provident is able to offer a wide variety of live rounds and bars, many refineries are quoting a 2-6 week delay for new orders! A Look Ahead There are two potential outcomes to this scenario. The first is that premiums will rise as inventories dwindle. The harder it become to find live silver, the more buyers will pay for it. Secondly, refining capacity may catch up with demand. The existing field of private mints will expand production, run more shifts, and find a way to satisfy the growing need. While it’s possible that new firms would enter the market, the massive capital and infrastructure requirement will be a barrier to entry. It seems unlikely that more private mints will open any time soon. What does all this mean for you as a silver buyer? Chances are that low-premium silver will be increasingly scarce in coming months. Refineries have been caught off-guard and did not anticipate this surge of demand. Between renewed interest in precious metals – and two major firms existing the market – a shortfall of product has developed. Mints will do their best to catch up and increase the output of supply, but in the interim, it’s more likely that premiums will head higher. The bullion market is more active now than six months ago, but it remains a far cry from what it was a few years ago. During periods of intense demand, silver bars and rounds have traded for close to $2/oz over spot. Now, today, many top-quality products can be had for less than a $1 premium. If you’re looking to add cost-effective silver to your holdings, now may represent an excellent time to lock in. Between upwardly trending spot prices and rising premiums, we see multiple reasons why silver could be more expensive soon.
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